ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global grain markets endured a sharp sell-off this week as weak US export demand, speculative liquidation and improving southern hemisphere supply prospects outweighed persistent Black Sea security risks. Renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict prompted traders to unwind war-risk premiums, driving European and US wheat futures to multi-month lows. Corn also weakened under harvest pressure, although reduced prices could eventually improve US export competitiveness.

Wheat markets face mounting pressure.

Key Factors:

• Chicago December wheat fell to $6.28¼/bushel, an 11-week low, while December Euronext wheat dropped €8 to €233/t. Weak US export sales, aggressive fund selling and competition from Australia and Argentina continue to undermine prices. US wheat remains poorly positioned in global export markets despite increasingly competitive values.
• Black Sea diplomacy challenges prices
  Renewed hopes of negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States have reduced the geopolitical premium in wheat markets. However, attacks near Odesa and continuing shipping security concerns mean disruption risks remain. Any ceasefire could release additional Russian and Ukrainian supplies onto the global export market.
• US corn remains under pressure
  December corn approached $4.53½/bushel before recovering modestly. Speculative selling, improving crop prospects and disappointing demand have weighed on prices. Harvest progress reached 44%, behind the five-year average of 52%, while Brazilian production is forecast at 148 million tonnes, increasing competition for US exporters.
• Southern hemisphere supplies weigh on wheat
  Australia’s Western Australian wheat crop estimate rose 9% to 10.9 million tonnes, while Russian production is estimated at 95 million tonnes. Argentina is also emerging as a competitive supplier. These prospects reinforce expectations of ample global availability, although deteriorating Canadian milling-wheat quality could support premiums for higher-quality grain.
• European and UK prices retreat sharply
  December Euronext wheat fell to €233/t, while London November wheat dropped £5 to £195.75/t, breaking below £200/t. French wheat premiums remain firm, reflecting tighter availability of higher-protein supplies. Meanwhile, EU corn imports reached 6.64 million tonnes by 18 October, up 40% year-on-year.
  
  

Outlook
Grain markets are likely to remain under pressure in the near term as speculative liquidation, weak US export demand and southern hemisphere harvest supplies dominate sentiment. Wheat faces additional downside risk if diplomatic progress eases Black Sea disruption concerns. However, persistent shipping risks, slower-than-average US crop progress and improved export competitiveness at lower prices could help limit further loss.

Malting Barley

The UK malting barley market continues to experience a prolonged period of subdued activity, with values showing very little movement over the past couple of months.

Key Factors:

• Uncertainty surrounding intake specifications, coupled with competitive feed barley values and adequate on-farm storage capacity, has encouraged many growers to adopt a patient approach to marketing their malting barley.
• At the same time, limited fresh buying interest from consumers has resulted in a relatively balanced market, with neither buyers nor sellers showing much urgency to trade.
• Scottish barley continues to move south into England, where its generally lower nitrogen content could prove increasingly valuable. This may offer maltsters opportunities to blend Scottish supplies with higher-nitrogen English barley, potentially allowing a greater proportion of the domestic crop to meet their requirements.
  
  

Outlook
The key factor influencing the direction of UK malting barley prices will be how successfully the domestic crop can be utilised by the malting industry.Should maltsters find ways to incorporate a greater proportion of UK-grown barley into their production requirements, this could provide some welcome support to prices. Conversely, if quality constraints result in a greater reliance on imported barley, domestic values could come under further pressure.For now, the market remains finely balanced, with the eventual outcome likely to become clearer as the season progresses.

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices remain under pressure amid aggressive selling and surplus malting barley supplies. Competitive pricing continues to support feed demand, while export activity remains subdued.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets remain under downward pressure as futures markets continue to sell off. Trade sellers are becoming increasingly aggressive, particularly for OND positions, partly driven by surplus malting barley volumes finding their way into the feed market.
• Feed barley continues to maintain a comfortable price discount to both wheat and maize, supporting its competitiveness and encouraging greater inclusion in feed rations.
• Export markets remain below domestic values, with very little fresh activity to report. Vessels continue to leave Scottish ports bound for Ireland, although new export business remains difficult to secure at current price levels.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices are expected to continue tracking wheat markets in the short term, although longer term, it’s price competitiveness should support demand and drive relative value increases vs other feed products.

Rapeseed

Rapeseed has come under sustained pressure this week, with Euronext futures falling as weakness across Chicago soybeans and Canadian canola weighs on the wider oilseed complex. Hopes of progress towards a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have added to selling pressure, while harvest-driven supply and fund liquidation continue to undermine prices.

Key Factors:

• Euronext rapeseed falls to multi-week lows: February 2027 futures closed at €540.25/t on 21 October, the lowest since late August, having broken below €550/t earlier in the week.
• Geopolitics turns bearish: Renewed expectations of progress towards a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have triggered selling across agricultural markets. Potentially improved Black Sea trade flows could increase competition for European rapeseed and pressure import values.
• North American harvest pressure persists: US soybean and Canadian canola prices have weakened as harvest activity increases seasonal selling. Fund liquidation has added momentum to the decline, with Winnipeg canola falling below C$800/t.
• Soybean demand provides some support: The USDA has continued announcing sizeable US soybean sales to China and other destinations. However, export demand has struggled to offset harvest pressure, while September US soybean crush fell to a 13-month low of 196.3 million bushels.
• Currency and crude oil offer limited support: The euro’s recovery towards $1.1270 has weighed on European futures by reducing export competitiveness. Despite WTI crude briefly exceeding $100/barrel amid Middle East tensions, wider agricultural markets have largely ignored the strength in energy prices.
  
  

Outlook
Rapeseed faces a challenging near-term outlook as weaker soybeans, seasonal harvest pressure and renewed optimism over Black Sea trade flows reinforce selling. February futures have fallen towards €540/t, with little evidence yet of a sustained floor. Continued US export demand offers some underlying support, but the market remains vulnerable to further fund liquidation. Attention will remain on soybean price direction, geopolitical developments and whether renewed demand can stabilise the wider oilseed complex.

Oats

Trading activity in the UK oat market remains relatively restricted, with limited farmer selling continuing to influence the availability of domestic supplies.

Key Factors:

• Scandinavian imports are currently providing much of the readily available volume, although imported oats cannot entirely replace UK-grown material, particularly where millers and end users have specific domestic origin requirements.
• Millers have shown increasing flexibility towards some of the quality challenges associated with this year’s crop, helping to broaden the range of oats suitable for processing.
• However, buyers remain selective, particularly while nearby supplies are relatively accessible. As the season advances, there is potential for domestic availability to become more restricted, which could create additional competition for suitable parcels.
  
  

Outlook
The overall UK oat supply and demand position remains relatively tight, although the anticipated arrival of further imported volumes should help ease some of the immediate pressure. Looking further forward to harvest 2027, early indications suggest that oat plantings could decline again as growers favour alternative cropping options, particularly wheat and oilseed rape. Any meaningful reduction in domestic production could strengthen the underlying supply and demand balance and offer support to oat prices over the coming 12 months. Much will depend on the scale of future imports, domestic demand and the eventual planted area, but there are certainly factors worth monitoring as we move through the season.

Pulses

Pulse markets remain subdued, with little to suggest a meaningful change in direction for either beans or peas. UK bean supply is relatively tight this season, keeping import parity towards the upper end of the market as an important price reference. Beans are becoming increasingly detached from London wheat futures, although wheat continues to offer some loose direction. With domestic feed demand subdued and buyers well covered, patience remains key across the pulse complex.

Key Factors:

• Beans: The domestic feed market is increasingly quiet as attention shifts towards January and the new year. At current price levels, beans remain uncompetitive in a number of feed rations where they would traditionally feature, with rapeseed meal and other alternatives taking a greater share of demand. Any improvement in consumption is likely to depend on relative values becoming more attractive.
• New crop: Winter bean drilling is progressing in generally favourable conditions, bringing CY27 marketing into focus. Growers have a range of options available, including the open pool, futures-related contracts and associated seed and fertiliser packages. With establishment underway, attention should remain on seed-bed preparation, soil indices and crop nutrition to give the next crop the best possible start.
• Feed peas: Prices remain under pressure from competitively priced Canadian and Eastern European supplies, which continue to cap UK values. Import availability is keeping buyers comfortable, while subdued animal feed demand leaves peas competing against alternative ingredients. Without a meaningful improvement in consumption or a change in the competitive supply picture, the near-term outlook remains soft.
• Marrowfat peas: The market remains challenging, with cheaper overseas supplies limiting the competitiveness of UK product. However, quality remains an important differentiator in this more specialised food market. Reports of smaller seed sizes and bleaching in the 2026 UK crop could restrict availability of suitable samples, potentially supporting premiums for bold, well-coloured peas that meet specification. Demand remains selective, so values will continue to vary according to quality and individual buyer requirements.
  
  

Outlook
Little change is expected across the pulse market in the near term, with subdued feed demand and competitive imports limiting the scope for a recovery. Beans will continue to take some guidance from wheat, but domestic consumption and import parity remain the more important indicators. Attention is gradually shifting towards CY27, while any support for marrowfat peas is likely to be quality-led rather than evidence of a broader market improvement.


PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Winter drilling continues to advance across the UK, with the lifting of root crops opening fresh ground.

Key Factors:

• Stocks remain across a broad spread of leading varieties. Arlington, Skyfall and Crusoe in the Group 1 sector are on the floor for fast delivery for those pushing milling performance. In the biscuit segment, Bamford and KWS Solitaire continue to draw interest. For feed performance, LG Beowulf and KWS Scope remain dependable choices with proven agronomic resilience.
• Craft malting barley remains one of the few options still accessible, valued for its reliability. Hybrid barley is seeing strong momentum this season, driven by growers looking to capitalise on hybrid vigour and the associated grass‑weed suppression benefits.
• Mascani continues to dominate the winter oat market, supported by broad acceptance and reliable performance across differing soil types and regions.
• Vespa remains the leading winter bean choice, offering high yield potential and consistent results on the Descriptive List.
• Interest in small seeds remains steady. Grass leys, cover crop mixtures and SFI‑aligned blends continue to see uptake, with many growers opting for tailored mixes to meet rotational and scheme‑specific needs.
• Maize is attracting early attention this season. Reduced yields across parts of Europe have tightened production, feeding directly into constrained seed supply for spring drilling. As a result, many growers are moving early to secure preferred varieties ahead of time.
  
  

Outlook
As autumn progresses, attention will begin shifting towards spring cropping plans. Growers who still need to finalise autumn requirements, or who anticipate top‑ups, are encouraged to speak with their farm trader promptly to secure suitable options. For those already turning their focus to spring, early ordering is advisable given tightening availability in several key categories.

Fertiliser

The international fertiliser market remains broadly firm. European nitrogen prices are elevated, supported by strong prices in key import markets, robust seasonal demand and high TTF gas prices. On Tuesday morning, European gas prices hit €89.45/MWh, breaking recent highs to reach their highest level since December 2022, and they have held above €85/MWh since, adding cost pressure to European nitrogen production.

Risks in the Middle East remain high, with the threat to commercial shipping increasing after attacks on two tankers in the Gulf last week.

On a more positive note, new UK CBAM guidance puts fertiliser costs below market expectations, with illustrative costs under £5/t from 1 January 2027. Liabilities will range from £0.70–3.91/t for the main grades depending on product and Q3 UK ETS prices, with urea estimated at £2.02/t according to Argus. They are calculated by multiplying the CBAM rate by the embedded emissions of the imported goods, less any carbon price paid in the country of origin. However, the tax is being phased in, so CBAM costs will rise across grades over time.

Urea
Egyptian granular urea has traded at $535/t FOB, up from $490/t last week, after Mopco sold 5,000 t for November shipment at that level. The producer is now seeking $540/t for further business. This represents a $55/t increase since 12 October. Elsewhere, Middle East granular was assessed at $450–460/t fob on Tuesday, with Nigerian product at $465–475/t fob.

The granular market is better supported than prills. Large Chinese prill availability is likely to cap the upside for that product.

Nitrates and Sulphates
Nitrate prices are expected to remain firm through November, as higher gas costs outweigh thin demand. LAT Nitrogen has announced new AN 33.5 prices at €565/t cpt France, €5/t above Yara’s equivalent offer. Domestic UK AN currently sits at £485/t – 500/t.

Ammonium sulphate prices should remain supported by tight granular supply until China releases a second round of export allocations, where Chinese amsul is stable at around $210–220/t FOB.

Outlook
Granular prices should remain supported in the near term, underpinned by strong seasonal demand in Europe and Brazil through the end of October. Combined with firm export prices, ongoing Indian demand (with a re-tender widely anticipated) and elevated energy costs, this points to prices holding firm, with scope to move higher in the weeks ahead. As last week, with gas prices elevated, the market will be watching for further European production curtailments.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1922	1.3388	1.1232

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct26	174-184	188-198	235-245	450-460