Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets strengthened over the week, led by wheat as escalating Black Sea disruption, tightening production prospects and persistent weather concerns outweighed generally favourable US crop ratings. Investment fund short covering amplified gains, while harvest results across Europe increasingly pointed towards tighter feed wheat availability despite encouraging milling quality.

Key Factors:

• Black Sea disruption remained the dominant market driver. Escalating attacks on ports, vessels and export infrastructure, coupled with rising freight insurance costs, continued to restrict grain flows and underpin global wheat values, forcing importers to seek alternative origins.
• Dryness across western Europe, the northern US and parts of Canada fuelled concerns over wheat and corn yields, while cooler conditions and scattered rainfall in the US offered only limited respite to production risks.
• Wheat is significantly outperforming other grains, with Chicago, MATIF and London wheat futures advancing to multi-week or fresh contract highs as lower production expectations in Europe and North America combined with aggressive fund short covering to reinforce bullish momentum.
• European and UK harvest results presented a mixed picture. Early yields generally disappointed, prompting lower production estimates, although quality has been encouraging. Expectations are building for a relatively tighter feed wheat balance sheet, supporting domestic basis despite consistent farmer selling.
• Corn remained well supported despite resilient crop ratings. Weather uncertainty, improving export demand, stronger energy markets and hopes of renewed Chinese buying offset favourable US crop conditions, leaving the market increasingly sensitive to any further deterioration in yield prospects.
  
  

Outlook
Wheat is expected to remain underpinned while Black Sea disruption and adverse weather persist, although heightened volatility is likely as markets balance geopolitical risk against harvest progress and profit-taking. Attention will increasingly focus on Northern Hemisphere yield data, export demand and whether US weather trims production potential further.

Malting Barley

The European malting barley harvest is advancing quickly with the springs now left to combine. Further dry weather will allow for good progress, and we anticipate a greater clarity on overall quality over the next 2 weeks. Quality and yields remain variable from region to region, however currently the balance sheet remains comfortable. This should keep premiums relatively low.

Key Factors:

• Attacks on Black Sea supply lines and infrastructure is continuing to push feed prices higher and this is helping to support malting prices.
• Continued dry weather is advancing harvest at a pace which is 1-2 weeks earlier than normal.
• Variable yields and quality being reported from both France and UK harvests.
• High screenings and poor retentions could see greater quantities of UK barley enter the feed market.
• Malting barley buyers continue to abstain from buying large volumes as they feel markets are overvalued currently.
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, prices will continue to determine by the developments in the black sea with wheat-based rallies likely to support feed barley prices thereby putting a floor in malting barley values. Longer term, the market here in the UK remains dulled by the lack of demand and oversupply in Scotland, however the lack of farmer selling is making shorts slightly uneasy.

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices have risen sharply with global market gains, while harvest progresses with mixed early yield and quality reports, and a weaker basis is improving feed barley’s value despite cautious buyer activity amid the strong rally.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley prices are sharply higher week on week as global macro markets continue to rally, taking all markets along for the ride.
• Harvest is progressing rapidly, and the winter barley harvest in England is complete, with spring barley cuts now underway nationally. Early reports on yield and quality are mixed, but we should see a clearer picture of the next week or so.
• Feed barley basis has dropped as cash prices struggle to keep pace with futures. Which is making feed barley look much more attractive in feed rations, although consumers are not engaging in a huge way with markets rallying so aggressively.
  
  

Outlook
Prices are going to be entirely dictated by the wider grains markets, which will depend on increasingly unpredictable geopolitics in the Black Sea and Middle East. It will be interesting to see how the situation progresses, however for now a least the market does not look like it is lying down with multiple daily gains.

Rapeseed

We have seen yet another positive week for oilseed markets overall as support from wider energy markets and news headlines continues to leak into the complex. Logistical concerns around the Black Sea have brought additional risk premium. Also, weather concerns across growing regions in North America continue to show potential for further crop stress and therefor yield adjustments.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have moved towards contract highs this week as ongoing dryness persists. This week’s crop ratings were stronger than expected for both corn and soybeans, though the weather forecast quickly took over and reverted the trade to concern. We continue to see tonnage flowing to China with further sales announced late last week and early this week with significant tonnage trading to China, Mexico, and Unknown.
• Crude oil has seen another sharp move higher this week from ongoing disruptions to supply flows. Both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are largely closed with ships consistently having to divert to other routes. Spot brent prices are now creeping back towards the $100 mark and are close to the levels which we haven’t seen since early June. Speculative length continues to be highly sensitive towards developing headlines and is keeping the market volatile for now.
• Canola has also seen a move towards contract highs as veg oil support from risk premium has compounded concerns over weather forecasts which look hot and dry. Overall, crop conditions in Canada do look good, though the forecast looks dry with temps towards 35 degrees expected this weekend. Previous dryness has been helped by the arrival of scattered showers but leaves the crop vulnerable to any further heat stress.
• MATIF rapeseed contracts spiked towards target levels, specifically close to €565 on the Nov contract which is both a target level and strong overhead resistance. We are also trading at contract highs and levels which have not been seen since 2023. Rapeseed remains subject to risk from black sea logistical issues due to the expected exportable surplus from Ukraine which is expected to move into the EU and UK.
  
  

Outlook
From here, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to headlines coming out surrounding global geopolitical tensions and how this impacts logistics for both energy markets and grain movements around Europe. Weather forecasts will also maintain a key role as the trade watches both how the forecast develops as well as how the crop copes with the weather that materialises over the coming days. Oilseed contracts do remain in a constructive trend though will need fresh input to continue through approaching resistance levels.

Oats

Another week of minimal trade activity with the lack of farmer selling really challenging the ability to determine market prices. Buyers are bidding into somewhat of a void as quality issues in the UK continue to prevent farmers from selling until they know what they have got to market.

Key Factors:

• The extended period of hot and dry weather has significantly impacted developing spring crops; this is expected to have caused yield losses and see poor grain quality as a result.
• Strong rally in wheat prices due to issues in the Black Sea has added support to oat prices with growers expecting to see similar advances in prices, but yet millers have been reluctant to pay up.
• UK spring oats will start to be harvested in the next 2 weeks, and this will give us the clearer picture of how bad the milling oat balance sheet will be following harvest 2026.

Outlook
In the near term, prices will continue to be supported by rallies in wheat markets and whilst there is uncertainty about the quality of the current harvest. The quality and available supply of milling oats from Scandinavia remains the key driver to EU milling markets. Longer term the outlook for UK oat production remains a concern with growers likely to grow alternative crops unless milling contracts make oats economical viable.

Pulses

New crop pulses continue to be harvested across the southern half of the UK, with pulses further north looking like they’ll be fit in the coming couple of weeks. Yield and quality data continues to be variable, which is to be expected at this point of the campaign. However, the main story has been the recent pop in wheat markets lifting new crop values, which is dragging beans higher whilst they are still tracking wheat to some degree.

Key Factors:

• The bean harvest is continuing apace, with more and more winter beans coming fit across the southern half of the UK.  Springs are starting to turn in many areas too, and it is likely we’ll be all done and dusted nationally by the end of August. Yields continue to be variable, however still within the range of expectations on average. Moistures are unsurprisingly low, although we are seeing a higher amount of broken beans in samples, as well as the usual bruchid damage. Whilst they’re not the prettiest crop this year, the samples are not as bad as expected.
• The pulse market is loosely tracking London Wheat futures higher on the new crop, although for how much longer? Beans typically disconnect from tracking the futures market at some point during harvest, and with the firmer flat pricing and a lack of spot movement options, it is worth thinking about marketing options now and whether it is worth capitalising on the firmer flat price.
• With harvest progressing, the European pea crop is showing a wide range of results. Ukrainian yields are currently reported to be ahead of last year, while production across much of the EU is generally coming in below previous expectations. Quality remains variable and further harvest results will be important in determining the overall supply picture.
• Market demand is currently subdued, with buyers largely adopting a cautious approach and showing limited urgency to cover. This is keeping the market relatively quiet while participants wait for a clearer understanding of final yields, quality and available stocks.
• Canadian yellow pea exports to India remain significant, maintaining a high level of competition within the wider global supply chain. However, lower European production may provide some additional support to regional demand as the season develops.
• Looking further ahead, grower interest in increasing pulse acreage for 2027 appears encouraging. Nevertheless, buyers are likely to remain cautious on new crop pricing until this year’s production and quality picture becomes clearer.
• As harvest progresses, growers should continue to monitor crops for Pea Bruchid Beetle where relevant and follow the latest PGRO technical guidance. Farm Trading representatives are available to discuss crop quality, marketing options and wider agronomic support.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets are likely to remain driven by harvest progress over the coming weeks, with yield and quality data expected to shape pricing as wheat influence gradually fades. Buyer activity should increase as production becomes clearer, while lower European output could lend underlying support despite subdued demand and ample global pea supplies. Growers should continue to monitor quality closely and assess marketing opportunities as harvest advances.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Harvest is progressing at a rapid pace and as fields start to clear, attention naturally shifts toward OSR establishment over the coming months.

Key Factors:

• As we await some much‑needed rain ahead of drilling, Daymon continues to gain strong traction. Its sale‑or‑return option, allowing customers to return up to 75% of their OSR seed if conditions don’t come right, remains a major draw, and availability is tightening quickly. Alongside Daymon, we’re pleased to offer a range of other options including LG Academic, Karat and LG Atom on the ADM Establishment Scheme, as well as DK Excited and DK Excentric on the Bayer Establishment Scheme.
• Production has now begun on our winter cereals. We currently have LG Caravelle on the floor for growers needing fast delivery of winter barley. In addition, we have limited stocks of over‑yeared seed available. Please get in touch for details.
• Two key varieties that have stood out this season are RGT Hexton and KWS Arnie, both remaining impressively clean throughout the year and delivering strong yields supported by robust agronomic packages.
  
  

Outlook
With harvest momentum building and establishment decisions approaching, reliability, flexibility and proven performance remain key factors in decision making and our portfolio is well positioned to deliver exactly that.

Fertiliser

The global fertiliser market has entered a period of heightened volatility following geopolitical disruption across the Middle East, tighter export availability from several key producing regions and renewed buying from major importers. While the immediate supply shock has eased, prices across nitrogen, phosphate and sulphur remain above long-term averages.

The key driver over the past quarter has been nitrogen, with urea experiencing exceptional volatility as buyers attempted to secure tonnes following disruption to Middle Eastern exports. Although prices have retreated from their peaks, sentiment remains firm and markets remain vulnerable to further supply interruptions.

Urea

The urea market remains the most volatile segment of the fertiliser complex.

The initial price rally originated from:

• Middle East geopolitical uncertainty.
• Reduced Iranian production and exports.
• Concerns surrounding movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Aggressive importer buying from Brazil and India.
• Speculative purchasing within North America.
  
  

Although physical exports have largely resumed, global inventories remain tighter than normal, and buyers are reluctant to remain uncovered.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

European AN remains structurally supported.

Major influences include:

• Relatively high European gas prices.
• Limited spare production capacity.
• Seasonal demand ahead of autumn applications.
• Competition from imported urea.
  
  

European producers remain disciplined with production rates and pricing. Should gas prices increase during winter, AN premiums are expected to widen further.

Phosphates

The phosphate complex continues to trade firmer than expected.

Key supporting factors include:

• Constrained Chinese exports.
• Strong Indian demand.
• Healthy Brazilian MAP consumption.
• Firm sulphur costs.
• Limited availability of phosphoric acid.
  
  

DAP and MAP values remain well supported despite softer crop prices. Unlike nitrogen, phosphate markets have seen very little downward correction because raw material costs remain elevated and the market remains fundamentally tight. Any improvement in Chinese export volumes could soften prices later in the year, although no major oversupply is currently expected.

Potash

Potash has remained the most balanced of the major nutrient markets. Supply continues from Canada, Russia and Belarus into the demand centres. Demand remains healthy across Brazil, Southeast Asia and India. Unlike nitrogen, potash has been largely insulated from Middle Eastern geopolitical issues. Prices remain firm but considerably less volatile than urea. Market direction is expected to remain stable with modest upside driven primarily by agricultural demand rather than supply shortages.

The global fertiliser market remains fundamentally stronger than many anticipated earlier in the year. Although the extreme volatility in urea has eased, the market is still trading above historical norms and remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. The strongest structural themes are resilient Brazilian nitrogen demand, disciplined North African exports, elevated sulphur costs supporting phosphates, and relatively balanced potash fundamentals. For importers and distributors, maintaining timely purchasing strategies rather than relying on spot-market opportunities remains prudent while geopolitical uncertainty persists.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1719	1.3370	1.1408

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July26	140-145	164-174	210	455-465