ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Grain markets remain volatile, with Black Sea disruption, extreme European weather and the developing US crop competing for influence. The latest USDA report added support to corn through tighter US stocks and a smaller EU crop, while wheat production cuts were offset by higher global stocks. Soya was softer, but broader commodity sentiment improved as energy markets strengthened.

Key Factors:

• Black Sea disruption remains the dominant wheat risk. Russian and Ukrainian port facilities have come under renewed attack, disrupting export flows and keeping a geopolitical premium in wheat. Reports of potential discussions over safe vessel passage triggered sharp selloffs earlier in the week, highlighting how quickly prices could unwind if logistics normalise.
• European and UK crops are increasingly supportive. Prolonged heat and dryness have forced USDA to cut estimates for EU wheat to 134.2m tonnes and UK wheat to 12m tonnes. The UK harvest is effectively complete, with yields disappointing in Central/Eastern regions but marginally stronger further north. Good quality is helping offset some of the production shortfall albeit milling premiums have suffered on abundant supply.
• Corn has the strongest fundamental backdrop. US ending stocks were cut to 1.653bn bushels as exports increased, despite production remaining slightly above July following higher harvested area. Meanwhile, the EU crop was cut to 50.2m tonnes and imports raised, reinforcing expectations of greater reliance on external supply. CBOT December corn moved back above $4.80/bu.
• Weather remains a major market variable. U.S. crop conditions are broadly holding up, although spring wheat ratings deteriorated and drought remains a concern across the Northern Plains. Europe continues to experience excessive heat and dryness, while Canada is also becoming increasingly dry. Argentina’s wet conditions are slowing harvest progress.
• Demand and macro factors remain mixed. U.S. wheat exports continue to lag last year despite a recent improvement in inspections, limiting the upside from production concerns. Managed money has increased its corn exposure while maintaining a sizeable wheat short. Stronger energy prices and Middle East tensions are adding support to the wider commodity complex, while currency movements continue to influence European competitiveness.
  
  

Outlook
Grain markets are likely to remain headline-driven, with Black Sea developments capable of quickly changing wheat’s risk premium. European crop losses and tighter US corn stocks provide a firmer fundamental floor, but comfortable global wheat inventories and weak US wheat demand limit the upside. UK wheat should remain supported by the smaller crop, although imports and maize substitution provide a ceiling.

Malting Barley

Harvest activity across Scandinavia is now underway, with early reports pointing towards generally satisfactory crop performance and yields close to historical averages. Nitrogen levels appear slightly elevated, typically around 1.5%, although this remains within the parameters currently sought by maltsters. Across much of continental Europe, harvesting is largely finished. Results suggest production has fallen short of normal expectations, while protein levels and grain retention figures have generally exceeded seasonal norms. At the same time, strength in global wheat markets has translated into firmer feed grain values, lifting seller price expectations for malting barley and creating a disconnect with consumer buying interest. As a result, trading activity with end users remains subdued.

Key Factors:

• Ongoing geopolitical instability around the Black Sea continues to disrupt export logistics and trade flows, providing support to European grain values.
• Reduced crop performance and inconsistent quality across major growing regions have significantly reduced the surplus malting barley previously anticipated within Europe.
• A more flexible approach to quality specifications by maltsters could increase the volume of grain deemed suitable for malting use.
• UK production remains highly mixed. Winter barley yields are commonly reported 10-20% below average, while spring barley performance varies dramatically by region, ranging from average yields to losses approaching 50%.
• Elevated screening levels and weaker retention figures increase the likelihood of barley being downgraded into feed channels.
• Domestic maltsters continue to adopt a cautious procurement strategy, preferring to assess additional spring barley samples before extending coverage.
• Farmer marketing remains limited, restricting available liquidity and providing underlying support to market values.
  
  

Outlook
Near-term price direction is expected to remain closely linked to developments in the wheat market, with feed barley values continuing to underpin the malting premium. Looking ahead, the key question for the UK market will be the extent to which quality requirements are relaxed. If current specifications remain largely unchanged, additional supplies are likely to be required from northern regions such as Scotland and potentially through imports from Denmark. Conversely, broader acceptance criteria would increase domestic supply availability and could place significant downward pressure on premiums in what remains a relatively muted demand environment.

Feed Barley

Market fundamentals remain supportive, with tight feed barley availability, steady demand, poor forage prospects, and attractive feed value offsetting limited export competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley availability remains tight, keeping physical prices supported, while futures are also finding a level of support.
• Flat prices remain steady as demand continues to come forward.
• The forage outlook remains poor following the dry season, which should provide additional support for FOF usage.
• Prices continue to look relatively attractive versus domestic feed ratios.
• Export opportunities remain limited, with alternative origins still pricing more competitively into Europe.
  
  

Outlook
The outlook for feed barley looks supportive, although continuing the theme of recent weeks, geopolitics and macro news will likely be the driver of any significant price action. Overall, domestic feed barley remains very wheat centric and is relatively following values closely.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets finished the week on a firmer footing, with supportive USDA data helping lift the wider agricultural complex after we have seen considerable volatility throughout the week. Soybeans were initially pressured by favourable US weather before recovering, while canola saw sharp two-way movement on speculative position re-adjusting. MATIF rapeseed also pushed higher but remains technically unsettled, with crude oil adding another layer of volatility to the wider vegetable oil complex.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans endured a volatile week, with favourable US weather initially weighing on prices and encouraging some long liquidation. However, Wednesday’s USDA report provided some support to the agricultural complex. For soybeans, US yield was cut from 53.0 to 52.7 bushels per acre, below the 52.9 market expectation. Though this was offset by the increase to acreage. Chinese imports remain a positive demand signal, with July slowing slightly but year-to-date imports at record levels. The market remains caught between improving demand and a potentially large US crop.
• Crude oil remained highly headline-driven, with prices moving sharply in both directions. Brent initially rallied strongly before giving back some ground, with changing expectations around US-Iran discussions and shipping flows providing much of the volatility. API inventories were significantly higher than expected, although the draw in SPR stocks offered some offset. For vegetable oils, energy remains an important source of volatility, particularly for soyoil and ultimately rapeseed.
• Canola has been one of the most volatile markets this week. Strong old-crop demand has supported cash bids, with consumers remaining active despite increasingly positive production prospects. A further 0.5mmt was added to the Canadian production estimate in the USDA report, reinforcing expectations of a larger crop, although strong crush margins are helping absorb supply and limiting the expected rise in ending stocks. Futures rallied sharply before profit-taking saw prices fall back. Technically, $795-800 remains the key resistance zone, to see the longer term trend continue, we need to beat the previous high around $838.
• MATIF rapeseed enjoyed a strong start to the week, gaining momentum towards the €550 area before a reversal highlighted just how choppy the current market remains. The move higher brought prices directly into overhead resistance around the 20-day moving average, and Wednesday’s wide-ranging session produced a bearish piercing pattern. Thursday’s modest recovery was encouraging, but confirmation of renewed upside momentum is still required. Outside markets remain supportive and vegetable oil strength provides a positive backdrop, although Black Sea developments and volatile crude oil continue to make the technical picture difficult to read.
  
  

Outlook
The underlying tone remains cautiously supportive, but volatility is likely to remain a defining feature. Soybeans need to balance improving demand against a potentially large US crop, making weather conditions important to watch. Canola faces potentially strong production prospects, subject to moisture arriving, but equally strong crush demand. MATIF rapeseed retains upside potential if resistance can be cleared. Crude oil and wider vegetable oils will remain key external drivers, meaning sharp intraday reversals should be expected rather than a clean directional trend.

Oats

Commercial activity in the oat market remains relatively slow, partly due to reduced participation from Scandinavian traders during the holiday period. Grower selling interest also remains limited, creating challenges for processors seeking forward coverage ahead of the traditional autumn purchasing window. Meanwhile, stronger wheat and barley markets continue to provide support to feed grain values, helping maintain a firm price base for milling oats despite the absence of substantial buying activity.

Key Factors:

• Dry weather throughout the growing season has materially affected UK production prospects, raising concerns that available supplies may be tighter than previously forecast.
• Strong alternative feed grain values are improving the competitiveness of feed oats and may encourage increased on-farm consumption should milling quality prove disappointing.
• Producers remain comfortable holding stocks post-harvest, reducing immediate market availability.
• Quality indicators are currently below last season’s performance. Recent laboratory results show only 57% of samples meeting the >48kg weight and <8% screenings criteria, representing a decline of around ten percentage points year-on-year.
  
  

Outlook
Over the coming months, firm wheat prices should continue to provide support to oat values, particularly as end users seek competitively priced feed ingredients. Limited farmer selling may also contribute to tighter nearby availability as merchants and processors look to replenish stocks after harvest.Further forward, domestic values may need to rise sufficiently to discourage exports and ensure adequate supplies remain available to satisfy UK consumption requirements. In addition, the eventual size and quality of the Scandinavian crop will remain a major influence on European market direction, particularly if UK values move closer towards import replacement levels.

Pulses

The bean harvest has continued to rumble on, with additional progress being made further north and west vs previous weeks. Yields and quality remain variable, although the hot, dry weather continues. Beans continue to take the lead from London Feed Wheat Futures, tracking the market more or less one for one up and down. As such, attention is firmly fixed on wider macroeconomic developments and the potential impact of geopolitical events on global freight markets and foreign exchange movements, both of which remain key variables for import and export competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• The winter bean harvest continues to progress, with combining now moving further north across the UK. Spring beans are also coming off in the southern half, and on occasion even further north. Early samples continue to show considerable variation in both yield and quality, with broken and split beans, admix, insect damage and variable colouring recurring across intakes. Moisture levels remain broadly within the 11.5–13.5% range.
• Human Consumption interest is near non-existent for UK beans, with UK pricing being uncompetitive against both Baltic and Australian origins. Ignoring the pricing differentials, variable colouring creates challenges for processors seeking a consistent sample, while high levels of splits can increase cleaning losses and deductions. With the Baltic crop approaching harvest and offering a substantial price advantage, UK beans remain uncompetitive internationally. In theory, those achieving Human Consumption specification should command a premium within the UK market given the relatively low pass rate, however with the overall uncompetitive nature of UK beans, there is no meaningful premium for Human Consumption, if at all.
• Attention will soon be turning towards the coming drilling campaign. Growers considering beans should engage early with PGRO resources and their agronomist, particularly around soil indices, nutrition and seed-bed preparation. With appropriate management, beans can still offer attractive yields and gross margins while providing a useful break ahead of following cereal crops.
• Pea harvesting remains well advanced across the UK and continental Europe, with the production picture continuing to vary considerably between regions. Hot, dry conditions have maintained harvest momentum, while early results continue to point towards variability in both yield and quality. Ukrainian crops remain ahead of last year’s performance, although much of mainland Europe is still expected to fall short of earlier production expectations.
• Market activity remains subdued, with neither buyers nor sellers showing significant appetite to increase commitments. Consumers are generally covered for the immediate term and remain focused on establishing the quality and specification of this year’s crop before returning more actively. Growers and merchants, meanwhile, remain concentrated on harvesting, sampling and storage.
• Export demand continues to be limited, and domestic trading remains largely characterised by a wait-and-see approach. Harvest results and the eventual split between feed and Human Consumption quality will remain key factors in determining how the market develops as more physical information becomes available.
• Looking further ahead, interest in pea production remains relatively encouraging, with the crop continuing to offer an attractive rotational option for growers despite uncertainty around the current harvest. Near-term price direction is likely to remain driven by the final production picture, quality outcomes and the pace at which buyers re-enter the market.
• As harvesting continues, growers should remain alert to Pea Bruchid Beetle where relevant and follow the latest PGRO technical guidance. Farm Trading representatives remain available to discuss crop quality, marketing opportunities and wider agronomic support.
  
  

Outlook
Harvest progress should continue to bring greater clarity on bean and pea yields and quality, although buyer engagement is likely to remain cautious in the near term. UK bean competitiveness will remain a key constraint, while pea values will depend on the final European production picture. Wider wheat markets, freight, FX and geopolitics will continue to influence direction as the harvest campaign draws to a close.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Production is now underway for both wheat and barley, and OSR deliveries are progressing well across the board. While recent pockets of rain have been welcomed, further moisture will be essential for successful OSR establishment and, shortly after, cereal drilling.

As harvest draws to a close for many growers, variety decisions are now front‑of‑mind. Our ADM seed catalogues are available to support confident, well‑informed choices for the 2026/27 season.

Key Factors:

Oilseed Rape 

Winter oilseed rape continues to be one of the strongest contributors to farm profitability, and success starts with selecting the right genetics.

ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio is built around:

• High output and excellent oil content
• Strong agronomic performance
• Robust disease resistance packages
  
  

To support confidence at establishment, we offer a sale‑or‑return option on Duplo OSR, allowing customers to return up to 75% of their seed if conditions do not come right.

Establishment schemes are also available across several leading varieties:

• LG Academic, Karat, LG Atom – via the ADM Establishment Scheme
• DK Excentric – via the Bayer Establishment Scheme
  
  

For growers facing cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, companion cropping remains a valuable tool. Species such as fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover can help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopies that may deter flea beetle activity, while also contributing to nitrogen fixation.

We also have consignment stocks positioned around England for collection when weather windows open. Speak to your farm trader for locations. Several varieties are available for next‑day delivery for growers needing rapid turnaround.

Winter Wheat Seed

KWS Scope (Group 4 Hard) is emerging as a standout option, combining:

• The stiffest straw package available in a feed wheat
• Excellent yield potential
• A strong agronomic profile
• Suitability for early drilling
  
  

KWS Aintree continues to excel with high yields across a number of trials sites. This high input, high output variety is perfect for anyone looking for a good barn filler.

Other strong performers this season include RGT Hexton and KWS Arnie, both demonstrating impeccable cleanliness throughout the year.

On the disease side, Sparkler remains a compelling option, with a septoria score of 7.2 – a key advantage given the damaging nature of septoria tritici in wheat.

Hybrid Barley Seed

Hybrid barleys continue to prove their value not only as a productive crop but also as a powerful agronomic tool. Its strong vigour supports weed suppression, and its deeper rooting helps maintain performance in drought‑prone seasons – a growing consideration across the UK. Varieties include Inys, SY Barnabus and SY Quantock are some of our top picks for hybrid barley, not only offering impressive yield advantages but also strong disease and agronomic packages.

Small Seeds

Whether you’re looking for an SFI mixture, grass ley, companion crop or something else, we are on hand to help you choosing a mix to suit your requirements. Get in touch today.

Outlook
With seed production progressing ahead of schedule and drilling decisions now coming into focus, attention will soon shift to securing timely establishment. Growers are well‑placed to move confidently into the 2026/27 season, supported by strong genetics, establishment schemes and reliable supply.

Fertiliser

Global Overview

Global fertiliser markets remain divided but well-supported. While July’s price increases have lost momentum, supply concerns continue to be a topic of conversation. The market is currently in a standoff: buyers are hesitant to commit at higher prices, and producers are unable to discount due to elevated input costs.

Focus has shifted from price volatility to physical availability. Geopolitical disruptions, low nitrogen commitments, and the looming CBAM point toward a potential UK spring supply bottleneck. The market is now looking to India’s Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) 1.7 million-tonne urea import tender (closed 11th August) to dictate Q3 pricing direction.

Geopolitics & Supply Chain

• Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The transit route remains effectively closed. According to early August 2026 UN and WTO data, urea exports through the Strait are down 83% and ammonia exports are down 75% compared to pre-conflict levels.
• Shifting Trade Routes: With Middle Eastern supply blocked, major buyers are scrambling. Australia is buying heavily from Nigeria and Algeria, forcing the UK into direct competition for Atlantic and Mediterranean shipments.
• Trapped Shipments: Over 800 ships are currently trapped inside the Persian Gulf waiting for safe transit, including vessels loaded with urea, sulphur, and bulk ammonia.
  
  

Urea

Price movements have slowed, and global benchmark prices are stabilising. The resumption of Chinese exports has helped balance global supply and demand with an approved additional 2 to 2.5 Mt of urea exports, returning close to its normal annual export run rate of 5 to 5.5 Mt. The immediate focus is the Indian tender. UK and European replacement costs remain firm, with little evidence of a downward correction as importers prepare for the 2027 EU CBAM.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

Elevated European production costs continue to provide robust support. A nearly 20% surge in July European natural gas prices has kept Northwest European ammonia prices considerably higher than in other regions. While European demand remains subdued due to varying weather, unyielding replacement costs mean substantial price reductions are unlikely before peak autumn purchasing. UK availability remains adequate. Ammonia CFR Northwest Europe benchmark tracking around $690 to $750/ton.

Nitrogen Sulphur (NS) Grades

Sulphur values remain exceptionally firm due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining upward pressure on raw material costs. UK interest in NS grades remains strong as growers prioritise sulphur to maximise nitrogen use efficiency in winter cereals, oilseed rape, and grassland.

Phosphates

Granular phosphate (DAP/MAP) prices face upward pressure due to tight availability of finished fertilisers and sulphur. However, poor buyer affordability is approaching a price ceiling, likely leading to demand destruction and gradual price declines by late Q3 or early Q4.

Regional Supply Constraints:

• Middle East: Conflict has inflated sulphur costs and disrupted Saudi Arabian exports.
• Asia & Eurasia: Kazakhstan is restricting sulphur exports, and Chinese export quotas keep DAP/MAP volumes at multi-year lows.
• Europe & Africa: Morocco’s OCP has cut Q2 production by ~30% to focus on TSP; Russian facilities remain vulnerable to drone strikes.
  
  

Potash

Markets demonstrate continued strength driven by steady international demand and restricted prompt availability. Suppliers are heavily committed to early-year contracts, leaving little product for immediate spot shipment. UK prices remain stable with shipment volumes in line with consumption.

Liquid Fertiliser

The UK market aligns with urea and AN trends. Firm global nitrogen values and elevated European gas prices support UAN replacement costs. Demand remains strong on UK arable farms due to operational efficiency and application accuracy. Much of the volume is already committed through forward purchasing and on-farm tank fill agreements; growers are encouraged to engage early to secure spot availability.

Ammonia

Ammonia faces a unique logistical hurdle: it is classified as a “higher-risk cargo.” It faces extreme scrutiny from maritime authorities, making it harder to clear for passage during brief transit windows than dry bulk ships. The blockade is highly disruptive, as the Persian Gulf historically accounted for ~30% of all internationally traded ammonia.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

The UK CBAM is legislatively set to launch on January 1, 2027. Unlike the EU, which benefited from a multi-year reporting-only transitional phase, the UK will impose full financial and reporting obligations on importers from day one.

Operational Rules:

• Free Allocation Phase-out: The UK government has committed to a 9-year phase-out trajectory for “Free Allowances” under the UK ETS starting in 2027. The exact UK phase-in percentages are not finalised, but they will tie directly to this phase-out.
• Indirect Emissions: The inclusion of indirect emissions created in production has been delayed until at least 2029.
• Double Taxation Prevention: The UK will allow importers to deduct carbon prices already paid in the country of origin.
  
  

EU Phase-in Schedule (For Context):

To provide an idea of how the UK may implement its trajectory, the EU schedule starts slowly and ramps up aggressively:

Year	Percentage Phase-in
2026	2.5%
2027	5%
2028	10%
2029	22.5%
2030	48.5%
2031	61%
2032	73.5%
2033	86%
2034	100%

(Final UK legislation is expected to be set out before parliament later this year).

Outlook
The fertiliser market remains finely balanced. While early summer volatility has eased, global supply fundamentals, tight raw material availability, elevated energy costs, and geopolitical risk premiums continue to favour a firm market. The immediate direction for nitrogen pricing hinges on India’s urea tender, while tight availability across phosphate and sulphur markets will sustain replacement values into late 2026. Current conditions offer little indication of a short-term price drop, so UK growers should closely monitor opportunities to secure autumn nutrient requirements.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1708	1.3491	1.1523

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Aug26	168-178	180-195	215	440-450