Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets weakened through mid-December as favourable South American weather, record or near-record crops and intensifying export competition outweighed pockets of demand. Currency moves amplified regional divergence: a softer dollar lent limited support to US grains, while a strong euro and sterling continued to erode European competitiveness, keeping prices under broad pressure.

Key Factors

• Supply remains burdensome with heavy global balances. Record wheat output in Argentina, large Brazilian corn and soybean crops, rising Chinese grain production estimates and improving South American weather suppressing any meaningful risk premium across grains.
• Export competition is intensifying around the world, with Argentina showing aggressive pricing — including sales to China — and steady Black Sea offers continue to pressure US and EU wheat. Russia lifted exports in November, while Ukraine’s logistics issues have offered only marginal, localised support to corn.
• US corn and wheat exports remain robust, aided by dollar weakness, record ethanol output and steady flash sales. However, soybeans remain hampered by Brazilian availability despite strong domestic crush and intermittent Chinese buying.
• Euronext and UK wheat set fresh contract lows as a strong euro, heavy imports and weak external demand weighed on prices. Record or rising planted areas point to comfortable forward supply, limiting scope for recovery despite oversold signals.
• Speculative positioning remains a key driver for ag markets, with funds cutting soybean length and extending shorts in wheat and oil. Elevated open interest suggests fresh selling rather than liquidation, although the scale of shorts could cap downside if sentiment shifts.

Outlook
Near-term direction remains skewed lower, with weather, currency moves and South American crop confirmation dominating trade. While oversold conditions and heavy fund shorts may trigger technical rebounds, sustained upside likely requires a material weather shock, sharper FX realignment or a clear demand surprise. For now, markets remain range-bound to weak.

Malting Barley

Old-crop malting barley remains subdued but underpinned by feed values and low crop-26 expectations over recent weeks.

Key Factors

• Old-crop trading is quiet for yet another week, with the familiar pattern of slow farm selling and weak demand.
• New-crop activity has quietened after a more active period of consumer covering in recent weeks.

Outlook
Short-term upside remains limited due to sluggish demand, but current feed markets are cushioning the downside, and a late-season squeeze is still possible if availability of quality barley tightens.

Feed Barley

Markets remain quiet ahead of Christmas, with limited trading activity and subdued export interest, but a promising domestic demand outlook into the New Year.

Key Factors

• Markets are quiet as the trade focuses on Christmas execution, and there is little trading activity to report.
• Export markets have gone quiet, as shorts retreat from the table, leaving barley replacement looking expensive vs other products.
• Domestic markets are slow, but barley is still maintaining an attractive pricing structure into the New Year, which should support demand through to the end of the season.

Outlook
Expect prices to remain in a sideways trend until the New Year as activity is likely to remain thin. We do not see much downside in the domestic market as barley’s pricing supports demand, and there could be some upside even, if export demand picks up again and further tightens the S&D.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets softened again this week. We have started to see the trade de risk ahead of year end with funds shedding length amid thinning liquidity. Favourable South American weather, heavy global stocks and ongoing macro uncertainty kept rallies in check, while volatile currency markets added pressure in Europe. Crude oil remained a key swing factor, while technical breaks across the oilseed complex triggered fresh selling, leaving markets probing to lower support levels as we approach the end of the year.

Key Factors

• The soybean complex remained under pressure, with CBOT futures extending losses. The market has continued to work lower towards downside objectives from the head-and-shoulders reversal formed in November. Renewed technical selling and long liquidation have been encouraged by consistently favourable weather forecasts across Brazil and Argentina, reinforcing expectations of another large South American crop. While daily flash sales to China have continued to appear, including sizeable tonnage late in the week, these have failed to materially shift sentiment. Continued uncertainty around US biofuels has also added some weight as the EPA has said that they will not offer any clarity until Q1 2026. That said, the market is now testing key technical support around the 200-day moving average, where selling pressure has slowed and soyoil managed to stabilise, suggesting the complex may be approaching a near-term decision point.
• Crude oil was volatile but broadly heavy over the week, initially making fresh multi-month closing lows as optimism around peace talks and a looming 2025 oversupply kept the market on the defensive. Bearish momentum remained intact through midweek, with prices struggling to attract buying interest despite being technically oversold. A sharp late-week rebound followed geopolitical headlines surrounding Venezuelan oil sanctions from the US, highlighting how headline-driven and fragile sentiment remains.
• Canola futures continued to slide, breaking through several layers of underlying and psychological support as weakness in the global vegetable oil complex persisted. Soyoil has consistently outpaced canola to the downside, pressuring board crush margins and encouraging further liquidation. Structurally, the market remains weighed down by a large Canadian crop and heavy portside stocks that will need to clear into export channels. News that the new Cargill crush plant opening has been delayed until spring 2026 removed some medium-term demand optimism, while recent closes below support have opened the door to further downside targets. The Canola/Matif spread remains historically wide, reflecting the ongoing GMO versus non-GMO dynamic and keeping Canadian values relatively depressed.
• MATIF rapeseed followed the wider oilseed complex lower, with currency strength in EUR/USD adding further pressure to local prices. Early support from RED III confirmation faded quickly, as much of the policy optimism had already been priced in. Technically, the market broke its longer-term uptrend and key support levels, triggering additional selling and bringing focus onto €466 and €460 as major retracement targets of the autumn rally. Nearby coverage remains comfortable, and with liquidity thinning into year end, buyers have shown little urgency to step in. As a result, MATIF is currently trading more as a follower of global veg oil sentiment than on standalone fundamentals.

Outlook
Looking ahead, oilseed markets are likely to remain headline- and technically driven into year end, with low liquidity exaggerating moves. South American weather will stay central for soybeans, while crude oil direction will continue to influence vegetable oils. Canola remains vulnerable to further downside unless export demand improves, and MATIF rapeseed is expected to track the wider complex closely, with key support levels now firmly in focus as we head into the new year.

Oats

Export demand into 3^rd country continues to help support EU prices but with a large crop this is needed to stop further reductions.

Key Factors

• The recent trades into Turkey has helped absorb the available milling oats looking for a home in Q1’26 and it looks like this could continue into Q2 if Black Sea supplies are unavailable.
• Fresh milling oat bids into the EU are had to come by with the pricing of frame agreements being the only business being reported.
• Feed oats continue to trade into ARAG for limited tonnages and due to the limited demand it is likely that prices will remain low whilst supplies are available.
• Here in the UK, low £/€ is enabling sellers to compete into export markets and this is helping to support domestic prices.
• Farmer selling is very poor with many growers reluctant to lock into prices below cost of production.
• Question marks still remain over the 2025/26 carryout with on farm feed usage very hard to calculate accurately.
• Anecdotal reports are for a reduction in the oat planted area for the 2026/27 harvest and this could add support to prices should we have a poor quality you.

Outlook
Milling oat prices have been supported by recent trades, but we will need this to continue in order to avoid a healthy carryout in 2025/26.

Pulses

A quiet week for the Pulse markets as the run up to Christmas thoroughly takes hold. Consumer interest is near non-existent, with the focus being around festive execution. North African markets continue to look towards the ongoing Australian harvest with optimism. Domestically, beans and peas continue to struggle to attract demand at current price levels, which remain too high for most buyers.

Key Factors

• With weakness persisting across the NGFI space, proteins, especially rapeseed meal, continue to look aggressive, and stem any potential bean demand. Feed bean prices remain around £30/mt above alternatives leaving them unattractive for inclusion in feed rations.
• The Australian new crop harvest is going very well, and bulk export shipments will be departing imminently. With an inherently good quality and bright colour, Australian beans are always seen as the gold standard in North African markets, so they have broadly disengaged from UK and European origins. There are still questions around potential export capacity, given that there are large exportable surpluses across multiple arable crops, we could see competition for shipping slots starting to emerge.
• Activity in the pea market remains very limited, as both buyers and sellers are holding firm on price levels. Purchasing continues to occur only on a short-term, as-needed basis. In the UK, domestic demand is virtually absent, held back by cautious feed buyers and weak export interest. Hopefully demand will re-surface in 2026.
• Availability of pea buyback contracts for 2026 is now extremely limited, prices are undiscussed at this early stage.

Outlook
Expect bean prices to grind sideways to lower in the coming weeks and months with little on the horizon to suggest anything otherwise. Beans are still uncompetitive in domestic feed formulations and Australian shipments are beginning to build, the market outlook remains largely unchanged, with limited upside potential in the short term.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Finally, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year from the Pulse team to all of our readers. See you in 2026!

Seed

As planning for the 2026 season gathers pace, securing the right seed choices early will be key to maximising performance, resilience and market opportunity across spring, autumn and forage crops.

Key Factors

• Spring Seed: Laureate continues to lead the way as the number one spring barley, maintaining its dominance across the malting and brewing markets. RGT Planet also delivers consistent strength on brewing contracts, while Skyway and CB Score provide dependable agronomic packages suited to more challenging conditions. Our pea portfolio—Kabuki, Adder, Daytona, Butterfly and Concerto—offers growers a strong spread of Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow options. With buyback availability tight, early commitment is advised; all pea seed for 2026 will be supplied with Nuello iN to enhance establishment and maximise yield potential. Nuello iN is also available as an optional treatment across other spring crops.
• Autumn Seed: Following the release of the new AHDB Recommended List in early December, conversations are already underway around varieties for Autumn 2026, with newer introductions expected to sell out well ahead of the main campaign. Exciting additions to the portfolio include Arlington Group 1 (awaiting full UKFM approval), KWS Fowlmere, LG Challenger, LG Defiance and KWS Aintree Group 4H, each offering distinct strengths to suit a wide range of farm requirements. For growers seeking a clean Group 4H, LG Defiance stands out with excellent treated and untreated yields and strong resistance, including against the new yellow rust strain (YR15).
• Maize Seed: Many growers are now starting to secure their maize requirements. At ADM, our comprehensive maize portfolio spans early to later-maturing varieties, with options suitable for forage, biogas and grain production, ensuring a fit for every system and objective.

Outlook
With strong demand anticipated for leading spring and autumn varieties, alongside tightening availability in key buyback sectors such as peas, early engagement will be essential to secure preferred options. Looking ahead, a balanced approach that combines proven performers with exciting new genetics will help growers manage risk while capturing yield, quality and agronomic gains for the 2026 season.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 
European prices remain depressed on strong supply, while US rallies on LNG strength but faces weather headwinds. 

Key Factors

• European gas prices hovered around €27 per MWh, close to their lowest levels since April 2024 and around 45% lower year on year, supported by ample LNG availability and strong Norwegian pipeline flows. 
• US LNG exports remain a key bearish force for Europe, with the US set to export around 14.9 bcfd of LNG this year, up 25% on 2024, while Norwegian nominations stood near 347 mcm per day, the highest since August. 
• EU gas storage has continued to draw down, standing at 69.9% full versus 77.9% a year ago, raising sensitivity to colder weather as Europe heads into January. 

Outlook 
European gas prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, but colder January weather and falling storage levels could introduce renewed volatility. In the US, LNG exports continue to underpin the market, though mild weather and record production suggest any price strength may prove fragile unless colder conditions materialise more decisively. 

Ammonia 
Market quietens into year end with prices holding firm amid tight supply. 

Key Factors

• Ammonia prices have remained broadly stable as the market slows seasonally toward year end, with limited spot trading activity. 
• Supply remains tight across key regions, helping to prevent any meaningful downside despite subdued demand. 
• Buyers continue to cover only immediate requirements, with little urgency to extend coverage given the lack of fresh spot availability. 
• Attention is increasingly shifting to expectations of improved supply in 2026, as stalled or curtailed production is anticipated to return once operational clarity improves. 

Outlook: 
Prices are likely to hold steady in the near term due to ongoing supply tightness and thin spot liquidity. However, once clearer timelines emerge around supply restarts and capacity additions expected in 2026, the market may begin to price in downside risk beyond the winter period. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1389	1.3375	1.1740

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Dec 25	145-157	152-167	195-205	400-410