ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global grain markets remained highly volatile as escalating Black Sea and Middle East geopolitical tensions offset improving US weather and subdued demand. Russian export constraints, deteriorating European crop prospects and disappointing UK wheat yields continued to lend underlying support, although buyers largely remained cautious, resulting in erratic price action and sharp swings across futures markets.

Key Factors:

• Black Sea disruption remained the dominant market driver. Ongoing attacks on ports and shipping infrastructure, reduced Russian export forecasts and mounting logistical constraints continued to underpin wheat values despite periodic rumours of diplomatic progress triggering sharp selloffs.
• Weather remains mixed globally. Improved rainfall prospects across the US Midwest eased concerns for corn and soybean crops, while persistent heat and dryness across much of Europe continued to reduce yield expectations for maize, sunflower and spring crops.
• European wheat markets struggled to build momentum despite supportive fundamentals. MATIF gradually retreated after July’s rally as weak export demand, short covering rather than genuine buying, and improving US weather capped further gains.
• UK harvest progressed rapidly with disappointing yields becoming a recurring theme, although grain quality has generally been excellent. The combination is strengthening domestic basis levels and increasing discussion over the UK’s potential import requirement later in the season.
• Demand remained subdued across global markets. Importers continued to delay purchases amid geopolitical uncertainty, while weak livestock margins weighed on feed demand across Europe despite some expectation of stronger grain feeding where drought has reduced forage supplies.
  
  

Outlook
Attention remains firmly focused on Black Sea developments, with geopolitical headlines likely to continue driving volatility. While improving US weather may limit upside potential, tightening Russian export availability, declining European crop prospects and uncertainty over global shipping logistics should continue to provide an underlying floor to wheat prices in the weeks ahead.

Malting Barley

The malting barley harvest continues to progress well ahead of normal. France is expected to have virtually completed with yields reported to be down 1-2mt/ha on average. Quality in general is reported to be variable; however, maltsters are yet to be overly bullish on prices given the general lack of demand. 

Key Factors:

• Further attacks on Black Sea supply lines and infrastructure continues to push feed prices higher, helping to support malting prices.
• Lack of rainfall across Europe continues to see harvest advance at a pace 1-2 weeks earlier than normal.
• Variable yields and quality being reported from both France and UK.
• High screenings and poor retentions could see greater quantities of UK barley enter into the feed market.
• Malting barley buyers continue to site lack of demand and need to see more spring samples before making any decisions about procurement.
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, prices will continue to be influenced by the developments in the Black Sea with wheat-based rallies likely to support feed barley prices thereby putting a floor in malting barley values. Longer term, the UK malting barley market will be shaped by the quality of the English spring crop and the parity to move Scottish malting barley down to English homes. Maltsters will however need to price at premiums over Scottish feed homes to make the risk attractive.

Feed Barley

The winter barley harvest in England is complete with variable yields, while the spring crop is getting underway across the country. Markets are firmer on higher futures and cash demand.

Key Factors:

• The winter barley harvest is now completed in England, a mixed bag overall but did not perform too badly given the challenging season. The big question mark will be the fate of the spring crop, where the market still has concerns following recent heatwaves. Harvest is underway and early reports are extremely variable.
• Nearby demand for barley is increasing as the market tries to bridge the gap between the winter and spring harvest. Prices are sharply higher as spot buyers continue to increase bids in a volatile market where futures continue to show strength.
• Barley is pricing competitively into feed rations, which should keep demand supported as we head into the winter.
• Export markets, once again, still do not calculate vs other cheaper origins available.
  
  

Outlook
It is looking as though barley prices will remain strong, unless we see a major pullback in futures markets, which will continue to take the lead from geopolitical events.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets endured another exceptionally volatile week, with macro headlines continuing to outweigh fundamental developments at times. A sharp correction in energy markets, improving weather forecasts across North America and shifting sentiment surrounding Black Sea logistics all weighed on prices, although underlying supply concerns remain far from resolved. Despite heavy speculative selling through the week, longer-term technical structures across several markets remain constructive, with traders now looking closely at key support levels to determine whether this latest pullback proves corrective or the start of a broader trend change.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans experienced significant volatility, initially finding support from deteriorating US crop ratings and continued export demand before retreating sharply as weather forecasts improved. Weekly crop conditions remain the weakest of the current growing season, although still above historical averages, while ongoing Chinese buying continues to underpin demand. Easing weather concerns have encouraged funds to reduce weather premium, leaving forecasts as the primary short-term driver. Meal and soyoil both tracked wider weakness, particularly as declining energy prices pressured the vegetable oil complex.
• Energy markets remained the dominant external influence on agricultural commodities throughout the week. Crude oil swung sharply in both directions as geopolitical developments and shipping expectations changed almost daily. Hopes of smoother trade flows through key export routes initially triggered heavy selling before renewed uncertainty lifted prices once again later in the week. While physical supply has remained relatively stable, speculative positioning continues to exaggerate daily moves, with agricultural markets closely following energy sentiment given the importance of vegetable oils in global biofuel demand.
• Canola markets underwent an aggressive correction after reaching fresh contract highs, with improving Prairie weather forecasts encouraging profit-taking from heavily long speculative positions. Southern Alberta is still beginning to show renewed dryness in the forecast, particularly significant given this season’s higher concentration of canola acreage further south. Strong domestic crush margins continue to support cash demand, helping local basis strengthen as futures weakened. From a technical perspective, the market remains within its broader uptrend, although recent price action highlights just how quickly speculative length can unwind when weather risks begin to ease.
• MATIF rapeseed followed the wider oilseed complex lower, surrendering much of the recent geopolitical risk premium as traders reacted to hopes of improved Black Sea logistics and softer energy prices. However, many of these logistical improvements remain largely speculative rather than fully realised, helping explain the market’s sensitivity to headlines. Nearby contract expiry and limited deliverable supplies have also added volatility. Technically, November futures are approaching important longer-term support after correcting strongly from recent highs. The widening discount to Canadian canola has also reduced the likelihood of increased Canadian imports into Europe, suggesting the spread may eventually need to rebalance if additional import flows are required.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, weather across North America will remain the key driver for soybeans and canola, while energy markets are likely to continue influencing vegetable oils and rapeseed through broader sentiment. Traders will also monitor Black Sea export developments and global shipping conditions for confirmation that recent optimism translates into physical trade. With speculative positioning still elevated and several markets approaching major technical support levels, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature into next week.

Oats

A lack of farmer selling and consumer buying is keeping the oat market very quiet as all eyes focus on the wheat lead rally caused by disruptions in Black Sea supply chains. Furthermore, until Scandinavia crops are harvested it is unlikely that we will see much strong buying appetite until September. 

Key Factors:

• The drought conditions in England have caused yield losses and quality issues for some milling oat growers, however, we need to see a greater proportion of the English spring oat harvest before we can draw any conclusions.
• Bullish wheat prices are supporting feed oat markets with consumers happy to follow the wheat-based rally to lock into supplies. However, whilst there are harvest sellers, millers are happy to take advantage of these pressured sellers.
• Farmer selling remains very slow with many growers’ content on storing their oats given the general comfort in logistical pressures. 
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, rallies in wheat markets will add support to feed oat prices and millers could increase prices should offers of harvest sellers dry up. Looking further forward it is the results of the Scandinavian harvest which will ultimately shape the direction of EU oat markets. Harvest is about to start and so we should get a flavour of things in the next few weeks.

Pulses

The pulse market remains relatively unchanged this week, with very little fresh news to influence price direction. Market participants continue to focus on wider macroeconomic developments, particularly the potential impact of geopolitical events on global freight markets and foreign exchange movements, both of which remain key variables for import and export competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• The winter bean harvest has seen further progress across the southeast, although north of the Humber is still not quite ready with most growers. Springs are now also on the turn, with the first sample of Lynx already having passed through our lab. At this rate, and if we don’t see any more rainfall, it is likely we’ll be all done and dusted nationally by the end of August. As with the last couple of weeks, yields continue to be variable and have been reported between 2-5.5mt/ha so far, whilst moistures are typically falling between 11.5-13.5%. We continue to see a high amount of broken beans in samples, which are also looking a little dirtier than usual with a tick up in admix. However, as we said last week, whilst they’re not the prettiest crop this year, the samples are not as bad as expected.
• The bean market is still loosely tracking London Wheat futures higher on the new crop, although the winter position has started to show signs of disconnecting from this and may be starting to come under pressure. Beans typically disconnect from tracking the futures market at some point during harvest, and with the firmer flat pricing and a heavily discounted spot market, this could well be the catalyst to push things lower. As such, it is worth thinking about marketing options now and whether it is worth capitalising on the firmer flat price.
• Human consumption markets are yet to be meaningfully discussed, however with the samples starting to roll in, it won’t be long before merchants have a better idea of what they’ve got. One worrying flag on the horizon though is the reported drone attack on a US flagged vessel in the Egyptian port of Damietta, which is the primary hub for Egyptian bean imports from around the world. Thankfully no injuries were reported, however if it proved to be a widening of the current conflict, this could prove problematic for further exports.
• The Pea harvest continues across both the UK and Europe, with many regions currently experiencing a mid-summer heatwave. This is creating increasing uncertainty around final yields and quality, with reports suggesting considerable variability between farms and regions. While Ukrainian pea yields are generally outperforming last season, production across much of mainland Europe is still expected to fall short of earlier expectations. The full quality picture will only become apparent as more samples are analysed over the coming weeks.
• As with the beans, buyer activity remains subdued for peas as well, with most consumers comfortable remaining on the sidelines while harvest progresses. There is little urgency to secure additional volume until a clearer understanding of crop quality, available supplies and marketable specification becomes available. Sellers, meanwhile, continue to focus on harvest logistics, sampling and assessing crop quality before committing significant volumes to the market.
• Looking ahead, early discussions suggest grower interest in expanding pulse acreage for the 2027 crop remains positive, supported by rotation requirements and improving long-term market fundamentals. Nevertheless, buyers are expected to remain cautious on forward pricing until this season’s harvest results and quality profile are fully established.

• As harvest progresses, growers should continue to monitor crops for Pea Bruchid Beetle where relevant and follow the latest PGRO technical guidance. Farm Trading representatives remain available to discuss crop quality, marketing opportunities and wider agronomic support.
  
  

Outlook
Harvest progress and a clearer quality picture should provide greater direction for pulse markets over the coming weeks. While values remain broadly stable, attention will stay on harvest results, geopolitical developments, freight and currency markets. As supply and quality become better defined, buyer activity is expected to improve, with marketing opportunities likely to emerge for both beans and peas as the season develops.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Harvest is now well underway for most growers, with some already completing Harvest 2026, an exceptionally early finish driven by this season’s weather pattern. As a result, seed crops have either been harvested or are close to completion, and production is now underway, beginning with barleys before moving into wheats. As drilling approaches, growers planning to include OSR in their rotation will be turning their attention to establishment and hoping for some much‑needed rainfall.

Key Factors:

• OSR

Winter oilseed rape remains one of the strongest contributors to farm profitability. Success starts with selecting the right genetics. ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio is built around high output, excellent oil content, strong agronomic performance and robust disease resistance.

To support confidence at establishment, we offer a sale‑or‑return option on Duplo OSR, allowing customers to return up to 75% of their seed if conditions do not come right. In addition, establishment schemes are available across several leading varieties, including LG Academic, Karat and LG Atom through the ADM Establishment Scheme, and DK Excited and DK Excentric through the Bayer Establishment Scheme.

For growers concerned about cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, companion cropping remains a valuable tool. Species such as fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover can help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopies that may deter flea beetle activity, while also contributing to nitrogen fixation.

• Winter Seed

We continue to monitor AHDB Harvest Results for both winter wheat and winter barley.

In winter barley, LG Capitol is currently leading the conventional varieties with impressive yields across trial sites. Seed is available this year but is limited, so it is recommended to book soon to avoid disappointment. 

In winter wheat, KWS Scope is emerging as a standout option, combining the stiffest straw package available in a feed wheat with excellent yield potential, a strong agronomic profile and good suitability for early drilling. The headline performer in the treated trials was KWS Aintree, topping the table with a 2026 mean yield of 111% and demonstrating exceptional consistency across all six sites (110–112%).

Check out our top pick of varieties in our Winter Seed Catalogue.

Outlook
With seed production progressing ahead of schedule and drilling decisions now coming into focus, attention will quickly shift to securing timely establishment and growers will be well‑placed to move confidently into the 2026/27 season.

Fertiliser

Urea
The global urea market has remained relatively firm, supported by steady demand from key importing regions and ongoing uncertainty surrounding supply from several major exporting countries. Production economics continue to be heavily influenced by natural gas values, whilst export availability from the Middle East, North Africa and the Black Sea remain under scrutiny. India continues to underpin global demand through periodic import tenders, often setting the direction of international prices. For UK buyers, imported product continues to dominate supply, with sterling exchange rates and freight costs playing an important role in determining replacement values. Although there have been periods of price consolidation, the market remains sensitive to any disruption in global trade flows, meaning significant downward price movements currently appear limited.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)
The UK ammonium nitrate market continues to be shaped by domestic production costs alongside imported competition. Natural gas prices remain the largest cost component for European AN manufacturer, and whilst energy markets have been more stable than in recent years, they continue to influence production economics. Demand across Europe has been seasonally quieter, although manufacturers are beginning to position themselves ahead of autumn and spring buying programmes. UK availability remains good, but replacement costs continue to be supported by firm urea values, limiting the scope for significant reductions in AN pricing. Farmers should continue to monitor market opportunities rather than expect substantial price corrections.

Nitrogen Sulphur (NS) Grades
Demand for nitrogen sulphur products continues to grow as sulphur becomes recognised as an essential nutrient across a wide range of UK crops. Availability of NS grades remains generally good, although production is dependent upon both ammonium nitrate supply and sulphur feedstocks. Pricing has broadly tracked movements in the AN market, with sulphur values adding a modest premium to the unit price of AN. As more growers prioritise sulphur nutrition to maximise nitrogen use efficiency and crop quality, NS grades are expected to remain a key component of fertiliser programmes, particularly for cereals, oilseed rape and grassland.

Phosphates
Global phosphate markets remain well supported by constrained supply and resilient international demand. China continues to carefully manage phosphate exports, whilst production costs in North Africa and the Middle East remain elevated compared with historical norms. Strong demand from South America and Asia has helped maintain firm global pricing, with relatively little surplus product entering export markets. In the UK, phosphate values continue to reflect these international dynamics, and replacement costs remain significantly above long-term averages. Following several seasons of reduced phosphate applications, many farms are beginning to reassess soil indices, which may increase domestic demand as growers seek to protect long-term crop performance.

Potash
Potash markets have generally been more balanced than other nutrient sectors, with global production recovering following previous supply disruptions. Large export volumes from Canada continue to provide stability to international markets, although logistics, shipping costs and currency movements still influence delivered prices into Europe. Demand remains steady, particularly where growers are looking to rebuild soil potassium reserves after several years of reduced applications. UK prices have shown greater stability than nitrogen products, but replacement costs remain influenced by international freight and exchange rates. With potassium playing a critical role in crop resilience, water management and yield potential, many growers are recognising the importance of maintaining soil indices rather than extending potassium holidays further.

UAN / Liquid Nitrogen
The UK liquid fertiliser market continues to be closely linked to developments in the ammonium nitrate and urea sectors, as UAN production relies on both nitrogen sources. Internationally, firm urea values and relatively stable European ammonium nitrate pricing have helped support liquid fertiliser replacement costs, while natural gas prices continue to influence manufacturing economics across Europe. Domestically, demand for liquid fertiliser remains strong due to its operational efficiencies, application accuracy, and compatibility with modern arable systems. With increasing investment in on-farm storage and long-term supply agreements, a significant proportion of UK liquid volumes are secured well in advance of the application season, reducing spot market availability. Whilst pricing remains competitive against solid nitrogen on a cost-per-unit-of-nitrogen basis, growers considering liquid fertiliser for the 2027 season may benefit from engaging with suppliers early to secure both product availability and pricing before seasonal demand gathers momentum.

If you are looking at making the change to liquid, please talk to your farm trader about how ADM Liquid Solutions can help you make the switch.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1654	1.3360	1.1459

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July26	150-160	185-196	207	435-445