ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

The USDA’s September 30 data delivered a bearish surprise for corn, while wheat was broadly neutral to slightly bearish and soybeans modestly supportive. Corn stocks were substantially above expectations despite a lower old-crop production estimate, while wheat production was revised higher, particularly winter wheat. European markets remain constrained by cheap Russian supply, weak demand and logistical uncertainty.

Key Factors:

• Corn stocks were the clear bearish surprise in the report, with September 1 US corn stocks reached 2.095bn bushels, 177m above expectations and despite USDA cutting 2025 production by 57m bushels. With yield unchanged at 186.5bpa, the data raises questions over underlying demand and could prompt a sizeable reduction in 2025/26 feed and residual usage.
• Wheat production also came in above expectations, with US wheat production was raised to 1.534bn bushels, 3m above the previous estimate and 10m above trade expectations. Winter wheat accounted for much of the surprise, rising 29m bushels to 1.019bn as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested acreage. Only 67% of planted acres were harvested for grain.
• However, it wasn’t all bearish, with Wheat stocks providing some offset. Despite the higher production figure, US wheat stocks were below expectations, limiting the fundamental impact of the larger crop. Nevertheless, wheat futures fell 6–17¢ following the report, reflecting the wider backdrop of poor US export demand and continued competition from the Black Sea.
• Closer to home, European wheat remains caught between demand and supply pressure. French export demand, particularly to Yemen and Morocco, is supporting the front of the curve, while cheaper theoretical Russian wheat and inconsistent destination demand continue to weigh. Cash markets remain quiet, with logistical constraints adding complexity and new-crop production increasingly dependent on final planting areas.
• The market focus now shifts back to harvest and 2027 acreage, following the corn stocks surprise increases the importance of forthcoming US harvest data and potential revisions to demand. In wheat, attention is moving towards 2027 planting decisions, with dry soils already affecting European establishment and possible acreage reductions in Russia.
  
  

Outlook
Near-term sentiment remains pressured by the sizeable US corn stocks cushion, higher-than-expected wheat production and weak export demand. However, attention will increasingly shift towards US harvest results and 2027 planting conditions. For European wheat, strong French export demand and tightening logistics offer support, but cheap Russian supply remains the key counterweight.

Malting Barley

Little has changed over the past week, with UK maltsters still no closer to determining whether lower-quality barley will be acceptable for malting. Current pass rates for standard English spring barley at 1.85% nitrogen are estimated at around 20%, significantly below the five-year average of approximately 70%. On paper, the supply and demand balance suggests either demand will need to be rationed, or additional barley imported to offset the shortfall created by poor intake yields. Scottish barley is expected to fill most of this gap, although Danish barley currently appears to be the most competitively priced alternative origin should brewers approve its use.

Despite these quality concerns, buying interest remains subdued. This lack of end-user demand is the primary reason premiums have failed to respond in the manner seen during the 2020/21 season. While malt demand remains lacklustre, outright barley prices are likely to remain supported by the feed market, with any improvement in premiums more likely to come from weakening feed values than stronger malting demand.

Key Factors:

• Uncertainty around malting acceptance rates remains a key market driver following highly variable quality results from the English harvest.
• Scottish and imported barley may be required to supplement domestic supply if rejection rates remain elevated.
• Feed barley values continue to find support from ongoing disruption to Black Sea exports.
• Low water levels across major European transport routes are restricting grain movements and increasing logistics costs.
• Maltsters remain cautious buyers, with many appearing adequately covered for nearby requirements.
• Farmer selling remains selective, limiting spot market liquidity.
  
  

Outlook

The direction of the UK malting barley market will largely depend on how flexible maltsters prove to be with their intake specifications. If current standards are maintained, England is likely to require imports of either malting barley or malt to bridge the supply gap. However, if specifications are relaxed, market attention is likely to shift back towards the lack of underlying demand, which could place downward pressure on prices.

Looking further ahead, cropping intentions are becoming an increasingly important consideration. Stronger gross margins from winter wheat and oilseed rape are expected to encourage a reduction in English spring barley plantings for harvest 2027. Should this materialise, and if demand begins to recover as stocks are depleted across both England and Scotland, the market could move into a significantly tighter position during the 2027/28 marketing season.

Feed Barley

Feed barley values have eased slightly, with tight supply and slow farmer selling continuing to provide underlying support despite limited export demand.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley values have drifted slightly lower week on week, although the decline has been far less pronounced than that seen in futures. This reflects the tighter nature of the market this season and the relative competitiveness of feed barley recently.
• Farmer selling remains relatively slow, although we continue to see a steady trickle of supply coming to market. On-farm feeding is expected to remain elevated, limiting availability particularly in areas with a higher density of livestock.
• In theory, Scottish exports to Ireland continue to calculate nearby. However, demand at destination remains subdued following improved conditions for forage production, while high stock levels at Irish ports are also limiting buying interest. Exports from England remain a non-starter at present.
  
  

Outlook
International macro markets will continue to be the key driver of flat price action for feed barley, however from a relative value perspective we continue to expect support over the winter on low availability combined with a healthy demand outlook.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have weakened this week, led by a sharp correction in soybeans after US-China trade details failed to include soybeans in the latest tariff reductions. Canola and rapeseed followed lower before finding some support midweek, although both remain technically vulnerable following breaks from recent ranges. Crude oil has remained volatile as markets continue to monitor physical supply flows. With farmers well sold and strong nearby coverage some focus is on technical support and fund positioning.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans saw a sharp fall after the US-China tariff announcement confirmed that the 10% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. This raises questions over Chinese demand for US soybeans. We may see China focus more on South American origin. US harvest is broadly in line with the five-year average, although slightly behind expectations. The latest USDA stocks figure was marginally supportive, with US soybean ending stocks at 315m bushels against expectations of 321m. However, open interest has fallen as speculative length was reduced early in the week.
• Crude has traded with significant volatility. Physical supply flows remain the key influence, with shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz slowly improving. This has reduced some of the immediate supply-risk premium in the market. We continue to trade headlines which try to change the rhetoric. Technically, crude is now approaching support, with the recent price action showing indecision rather than a clear trend.
• Canola has followed soybeans lower but managed a decent recovery, closing higher on Tuesday and finding support around its 50-day moving average. However, the market continues to struggle with overhead resistance and remains at a price level where it is difficult to compete into the EU. Canola also remains at a sizeable premium to soybeans, limiting its competitiveness. The recent fall in price has weakened the technical picture, although the recovery from support means the wider move higher remains intact for now.
• MATIF rapeseed broke lower from the recent range before recovering, with the Nov contract now showing considerable volatility. The market remains within a broader narrowing pattern, suggesting a larger breakout could eventually develop. Speculative length remains significant, particularly in November, with funds rolling positions into February. This has pushed the Nov/Feb carry out to around €17+. EU carryout remains tight but is gradually becoming more manageable as reduced crush on the Danube limits demand, while low river levels continue to cause logistical issues.
  
  

Outlook
The short-term outlook remains cautious, with soybeans setting the tone and both canola and rapeseed needing to hold recent support to prevent a deeper technical correction. However, the wider European balance sheet remains relatively tight and strong carries are providing an incentive to move supply further forward. With farmers already well sold, nearby selling pressure should remain limited. Attention will turn to Chinese soybean demand, fund positioning, Australian yields and whether rapeseed can establish support before attempting another move higher.

Oats

The oat market continues to experience very limited farmer engagement, with many growers reporting significant yield reductions following this year’s historic drought across the UK. Scandinavian imports continue to provide much-needed liquidity to the domestic market. However, with winter approaching and increasing indications of demand from major export destinations, prices from Scandinavian origins have begun to firm.

Low water levels across much of Western Europe are also increasing costs for millers reliant on imported oats. In some cases, importers have been forced to utilise port-side storage and road haulage solutions to fulfil contractual commitments that cannot be deferred. Feed demand has strengthened in recent weeks due to reduced availability of alternative fibre sources. As a result, consumers are showing greater interest in lower-quality oat supplies, providing additional support to the market.

Key Factors:

• Limited farmer selling continues to restrict market liquidity.
• Many growers remain focused on fulfilling existing contracts following a difficult harvest.
• Processors are gradually increasing coverage ahead of stronger seasonal demand later in the year.
• Firm feed grain markets are supporting oat values and encouraging greater inclusion in livestock rations.
• Scandinavian imports remain an important source of supply for UK consumers.
• Broader geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin agricultural commodity markets.
  
  

Outlook
With harvest activity now largely complete, farmer selling has slowed across Europe. As a result, any meaningful increase in buying demand is likely to have a greater impact on prices than would typically be expected during harvest pressure.

Looking beyond the current season, crop economics continue to present a challenge for oat production. Improved returns and a more attractive risk-reward balance are encouraging many growers to favour winter wheat over oats. Should oat acreage contract further ahead of the 2027 harvest, the UK may become increasingly reliant on imported supplies to meet domestic demand.

Pulses

Attention continues to focus on understanding where the pulse crop is physically located this year, with supply feeling heavier in the north. Conversely, demand is stronger in the deficit south, meaning beans are having to travel. Whilst beans continue to take some direction from London Wheat, the relationship is becoming less strong with each day as they start to trade their own story. Overall, the sentiment is broadly cautious still, with underlying fundamentals being the main driver on price direction.

Key Factors:

• UK domestic values remain the main reference point for beans, with little change in their competitiveness into international markets. Demand is still mainly coming from poultry, with consumers happy to cover requirements hand-to-mouth. Forward buying remains limited, keeping activity focused on nearby needs rather than longer-term cover.
• Attention is gradually turning towards the next bean crop as drilling gets closer. Winter cereals and OSR are generally establishing well, while soil moisture is providing a reasonable backdrop. Growers will now be thinking about seed-bed preparation, soil indices and nutrition to give beans the best possible start.
• There is still very little new to report in peas. Buyers remain largely on the sidelines, with traded volumes subdued and prices broadly unchanged. Competition from Eastern Europe and Canada continues to provide a headwind, with little sign of buyers needing to chase the market higher.
• Looking ahead, the pea market remains well supplied and demand is yet to show any meaningful improvement. With alternative origins becoming increasingly acceptable in the UK, sellers are likely to remain under pressure as they compete for limited demand, and buyers continue to avoid taking on significant forward volumes.
• Little new news to report in the pea market this week, although we are starting to see trading activity slowly pick up. Prices remain largely unchanged, with the market continuing to feel pressure from competitive origins, particularly Eastern Europe and Canada.
• The market remains well supplied, with demand yet to show any significant improvement. The increasing acceptance of alternative origins into the UK is adding further competition, and with buyers still cautious about committing to larger volumes, we expect continued pressure on feed pea prices as sellers compete for available demand.
  
  

Outlook

UK bean values are likely to remain driven by domestic fundamentals as the market increasingly trades its own story rather than simply following wheat. Regional imbalances will keep beans moving south, while cautious poultry demand limits upside. Peas remain well supplied, with competitive Eastern European and Canadian origins and subdued buying likely to keep pressure on prices.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As we move into October, winter cereal drilling continues across the UK, with recent patchy rainfall helping to kick‑start germination and support establishment. Seed production continues, and daily deliveries are keeping pace with demand as growers push on with autumn workloads.

Key Factors:

Winter Wheat
We have strong availability across several leading varieties, including:

• Arlington (Group 1) – A new high‑quality milling option.
• Vibe (Group 1) – A popular choice for growers seeking quality.
• Bamford (Group 3) – The market leader, widely recognised for its versatility and dependable yields.
• Scope (Group 4 Hard) – One of the stiffest varieties on the market, offering strong standing power.
• Contact your farm trader for full availability and delivery timescales.
  
  

Winter Barley
Feed barley availability is tightening rapidly, with stocks now extremely limited. Craft remains available – a well‑established variety trusted by growers for its reliability.

Winter Oats
Mascani continues to be the leading winter oat option, supported strongly by both growers and end users for its consistency and market acceptance.

Winter Beans
Vespa remains our recommended winter bean variety, sitting among the highest‑yielding options on the Descriptive List.

Hybrid Barley
KWS Inys and SY Quantock continue to be popular choices this season, offering high yields alongside the recognised hybrid advantages – strong vigour and valuable grass‑weed suppression.

Small Seeds
Demand for small seeds remains strong. Whether you require a grass ley, SFI‑aligned mixture, cover crop, or a bespoke option, we offer a wide portfolio of mixtures and straights to suit all systems.

Outlook
Availability is expected to tighten further across key commodities and varieties. As always, varietal choice should be aligned with end‑market needs, location, soil type, and seed‑bed conditions to maximise crop performance.

Fertiliser

Geopolitical developments have taken centre stage this week. Donald Trump has drawn attention by claiming to be working on a massive deal Belarus, while simultaneously stating the US will continue to purchase Canadian MOP. Meanwhile US diplomatic representatives have engaged in indirect discussions with their Iranian counterpart heavily mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, discussions are likely focused on the Strait of Hormuz.

In Europe, high natural gas prices remain a significant driver for production costs. Although the price has retreated closer towards €72/MWh it remains high compared to the same period just two months ago, following a mid-September crude oil spike caused by drone attacks on Sudi Armco’s east west crude pipeline.

European Union underground gas storage levels stand at approximately 71.2% full as of late September 2026. Down roughly 11 percentage points compared to the same time last year (~82.6%) and sitting at its lowest level for late September since data tracking began in 2011.

Urea
Global granular urea prices remain broadly supported by seasonal demand in regions like Brazil and Europe. US market showed softness with the FOB NOLA barge price dropping $16/st to $450-455/st after lower bids following the news of China’s approval of a fourth batch of urea export allocations, estimated at roughly 1.5 to 2 million tonnes. At least 1 million tonnes of Chinese urea expected to be offered into the upcoming Indian tender closing on October 7^th. Baltic Sea spot FOB up $5/t resting at $430-440/t while Egypt spot FOB up $17/t to $535/t.

Nitrates and Sulphates
Nitrates have firmed significantly, with high European gas prices supporting cost margins. The continuous risk of gas-driven plant shutdowns keeping supply tight with many already offline. Notably major producer Agrofert is currently running its European ammonia units at just 80% capacity due to the high feedstock costs.

Potash
Potash prices saw declines across key benchmarks this week, particularly in Brazil and Europe. Brazilian MOP prices fell for the fourth consecutive week due to persistently weak demand. Suppliers are currently attempting to secure long-term deals to push inventory out ahead of the 2027-28 crop season. Prices are expected to remain weak in the near term as ample supply continues to weigh on the market encouraging hand to mouth buying.

Outlook
The near-term outlook leans bearish for phosphates and potash, primarily driven by slow demand and ample availability, though high raw material costs may prevent steep phosphate declines. The urea market’s trajectory will heavily depend on the actual flow of Chinese export volumes from the newly announced quotas and the outcomes of the October 7 Indian tender. In Europe, the nitrogen complex will remain highly sensitive to natural gas volatility and the potential for further production curtailments as winter approaches.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1703	1.3261	1.1328

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct26	£174-184	£196-206	£235-245	£450-460