Market reports

Wheat

Grain and oilseed markets swung between USDA-driven weakness and China-linked demand optimism, with volatility amplified by geopolitical risks and shifting South American weather. Wheat remains fundamentally heavy, corn directionless amid ample stocks, and soybeans the most sentiment sensitive. European markets tracked Chicago but lagged conviction, while FX and logistics offered only marginal influence.

Key Factors:

• Markets whipsawed following a broadly bearish USDA WASDE last week, following an extended delay due to the US Government Shutdown, with data clashing against bursts of China-related demand, geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe, and shifting Brazilian and Argentine crop prospects. Record U.S. crush data and strong fund activity injected volatility, while global wheat supply signals stayed firmly burdensome.
• The USDA delivered a decisively bearish wheat outlook, with higher U.S. and global stocks, reinforced by rising output in major exporters. Despite sporadic geopolitical support, competitive Black Sea offers and expanding South American supply capped rallies. EU exports are only on par with last year despite far larger production.
• Corn held a neutral-to-soft tone as record U.S. yields kept stocks above 2.1bn bu. Strong U.S. export sales helped flatten declines, but Brazil’s expanding crop and muted weather threats limited upside. Harvest delays offered fleeting support, while spreads firmed without breaking the broader rangebound trend.
• Soybeans were the focal point of volatility: supportive WASDE tightening clashed with concerns over U.S. export competitiveness vs. Brazil. Large – but politically tinged – Chinese purchases triggered sharp rallies and equally sharp reversals. Record NOPA crush and improved Brazilian rains added complexity to sentiment-driven price swings.
• European and UK grains shadowed U.S. moves but lacked conviction. MATIF wheat repeatedly tested support as large EU crops and steady Black Sea flows weighed on fundamentals. UK markets remained thin and distorted by spot shorts, with cold weather slowing crop development but not shifting the broader balance.
  
  

Outlook
Near-term direction hinges on follow-through Chinese demand, South American weather consistency, and fund positioning as markets digest WASDE revisions. Wheat remains biased lower, corn trapped between ample supply and external influences, and soybeans poised for continued volatility. European markets are likely to remain reactive, not leading, as fundamentals stay heavy.

Malting Barley

Another unchanged picture from the malting barley market, which remains quiet on limited demand. Supply however is likely being tightened up by increasing feed values.

Key Factors:

• Malting barley markets are once again slow, with little activity to report. Crop-25 values are holding steady, being helped by firmer feed values. Some malting lots are currently being sold as feed barley.
• Export business is not taking place as FOB markets remain discounted to feed.
• Crop-26 is a premium to crop-25 with a lower supply outlook on falling spring acres, lending a supportive longer-term tone.
  
  

Outlook
Whilst demand remains slow it is tricky to see a reason for any significant upside in the short term, however longer term, alongside a supported feed market, downside looks limited and there is the opportunity for a late season squeeze if availability of quality barley runs dry.

Feed Barley

Markets are supported week on week on continued export demand and winter conditions.

Key Factors:

• We see continued export interest in the market, coming from shorts in the Dutch interior market. Underlying demand remains in Ireland, Spain and Portugal.
• The outlook for domestic demand is looking strong as the cold weather arrives. Feed barley continues to look attractive in domestic feed rations, albeit less so than recent weeks as demand pushes values higher.
• New crop markets are still subdued, although cropping area forecasts for the spring continue to point to a tighter S&D and potentially higher prices.
  
  

Outlook
Whilst spot export demand persists, we expect to see feed barley values remaining supported, particularly as farmer selling is likely to see a slowdown in the coming weeks as the festive season looms.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets spent the week swinging between sharp selloffs and swift recoveries as traders digested mixed macro signals, shifting USDA data, and ongoing uncertainty around US-China demand. Soybeans remained the main driver, with alternating bouts of optimism and disappointment around Chinese buying and biofuel policy shaping sentiment. Crude oil volatility fed into the vegetable oil complex, while Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed continued to respect key technical levels, struggling to push through overhead resistance.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans were volatile this week, dropping after the USDA report despite figures that showed slightly lower production and ending stocks than expected. Chinese buying promises from the Trump Administration provided mid-week support, with flash sales helping sentiment, but actual purchases remain below expectations so far. Soyoil gained modestly on energy support, before a potential delay in US biofuel import credit cuts added bearish pressure, making imported veg oils cheaper and weighing on domestic crush margins.
• Crude moved sideways with spikes from geopolitical news. A temporary Russian port closure and Iran tanker seizure provided short-term support, while late-week API inventory builds, and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine pressured prices. China’s rising crude surplus added further caution. Overall, crude remains in a range, feeding intermittent volatility into vegetable oils.
• Canola largely followed soybean moves, staying within the up-trending channel from October. Relatively constructive canola prices against a decline in products had helped boost crush margins and keep a supportive tone under the market. The trend remains constructive, though a technical pullback looks likely before further advances.
• MATIF rapeseed saw fresh highs early in the week, aided by the broader complex, before stalling near €487. Currency pressure and farmer-selling capped rallies. A late-week bearish engulfing candle signals short-term weakness thought today’s (Thursday) price action is important to either confirm or reverse this. Support is at €480 then €475. Structural factors, like delayed Australian harvests and strong EU new-crop plantings, may limit further upside, especially for new crop prices.
  
  

Outlook
We continue to experience headline driven trade which will have a focus on US biofuel policies and any EUDR developments. Soybeans need sustained Chinese purchasing to avoid drifting lower, while crude oil appears set for continued range-bound volatility. Canola and MATIF rapeseed look technically due a short-term pullback, though structural support should re-emerge on dips. Broadly, markets may consolidate until clearer direction arrives from US policy, South American weather, and confirmed export demand.

Oats

Oats continue to be hard to trade with buyers and sellers not yielding.

Key Factors:

• The European oat market remains at a standstill, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to commit at current price levels.
• Farmers feel prices have fallen too far and are holding out for a rebound, while consumers believe there is still an oversupply and expect values to weaken further.
• Demand from Turkey continues to support milling markets, and newly agreed trading terms between Sweden and China are adding further interest in the region.
• Heavy early-season exports from Scandinavia at low prices are thought to have depleted exportable surpluses, which could shift additional demand toward UK oats once buyers re-enter the market.
• Feed-oat demand across Europe remains subdued; however, limited farmer selling has helped stabilise prices and prevented further declines.
• In the UK, farmer selling also remains sluggish, partly because some growers are opting to feed oats on farm rather than release them into the market.
• Feed compounders are beginning to increase their usage as oats now trade at a substantial discount to other feed grains and fibre sources.
• Favourable autumn drilling conditions have allowed many growers to expand winter wheat plantings in an effort to maximise returns.
  
  

Outlook
In summary, low prices are inhibiting fresh supplies coming to market, but there is potential that we have hit market lows and demand will start flowing again to support prices.

Pulses

The Christmas lull seems to be kicking in early for pulse markets, with little activity on either Peas or Beans. Their general lack of competitiveness into domestic feed rations continue to hinder bean demand, with little sign of a change on the horizon. Human consumption demand remains disengaged under the shadow of the Australian new crop.

Key Factors:

• A steady week of interest on beans from the feed sector, with minimal interest aside from the poultry sector, which is still also muted, with beans seemingly having no friends across the market. Beans remain c. £25/mt away from competing on a unitary protein value against other feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal, limiting their general attractiveness. With snow falling across much of the UK this week, even as limited as it is, there may be a pop in feed demand, however beans are too expensive to capitalise on this.
• The Australian new crop harvest is starting to come to life and talk across the trade continues to centre around how large the crop is looking and associated aggressive prices. Human Consumption buyers around the world, but especially North Africa, are more and more focussed on the high quality Australian beans now, and are lacking interest in other origins.
• There is very little to add this week, market seems in stalemate between buyers and sellers. Global prices are under pressure and demand is hard to find.
• Recent update on buyback contracts leaves very little space for those that haven’t booked their area yet.
  
  

Outlook
UK pulse prices remain less competitive against alternative feed ingredients, keeping bean demand subdued and values under downward pressure as the season draws to a close. Sentiment in the Human Consumption market also stays muted, with prospects for the Australian new crop continuing to overhang the market and discourage buyer engagement.

                             
PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As we approach the end of 2025, spring seed selection is becoming a central focus for many growers. Making the right choices now is essential for setting up the 2026 spring crop for a productive and resilient growing season. Beyond simply choosing varieties with strong yield potential, growers are increasingly prioritising those that align with evolving market specifications and end-user demand.

Key Factors:

• Spring Barley: Laureate is expected to remain the leading variety for Spring 2026, retaining its strong position with both growers and end-users thanks to its proven quality and performance. Alongside Laureate, we are pleased to offer RGT Planet, Skyway, and CB Score within our Spring Barley portfolio. RGT Planet continues to be one of the top brewing varieties, prized for its excellent grain quality and consistency across a wide range of soil types. Skyway and CB Score provide additional choice for growers looking for strong agronomics and robust packages. 
• Spring Wheat: Ladum remains our preferred Group 1 variety, delivering high yields supported by a strong disease resistance package, an increasingly important factor in managing risk. For those targeting a Group 2 specification, Alicium stands out with its exceptional grain quality, consistently high protein levels, and strong Hagberg Falling Number, making it a dependable option.
• Spring Oats: Our Spring Oat portfolio offers a broad range of options, including Merlin, WPB Isabel, and the new Caledon, giving growers flexibility to match varieties with local preferences and contract requirements. Merlin continues to gain popularity as a high performing, high yielding variety. It also boasts low screenings and a solid specific weight.
• Spring Beans: Lynx continues to be a leading choice, repeatedly demonstrating strong on-farm performance, solid yield potential, and good standing ability. Its reliability makes it a core option in pulse rotations.
• Spring Peas: Availability on our buyback contracts remains limited, with opportunities still open for the Kabuki marrowfat variety, as well as Concerto yellow pea. Looking ahead to 2026, all pea seed will be supplied with Nuello iN seed treatment as standard. Backed by robust Syngenta data, this treatment supports improved establishment, enhanced plant health, and the potential for stronger yields, contributing to both crop performance and farm profitability.
• Maize: Whether forage, biogas, or grain production, we offer a comprehensive maize portfolio covering a full range of maturities. This ensures that there is a variety suited to every system, from early maturing options for shorter growing seasons to high-energy types designed to maximise feed value and output.
  
  

Outlook
As growers prepare for Spring 2026, selecting varieties that meet both agronomic needs and end-market specifications will be critical to maximising performance and return on investment. With increasing pressure from market standards and unpredictable seasonal conditions, choosing well-proven genetics and appropriate seed treatments has never been more important.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices fall toward 18-month lows as warmer forecasts pressure demand; US futures rebound on colder early-December outlook. 

Key Factors: 

• Europe’s TTF futures slipped below €31/MWh, losing two percent as weather models shifted milder for next week, reducing expected heating demand. 
• Short-term cold persists through Saturday, but forecasts show temperatures rebounding across Northern and Central Europe, easing consumption expectations. 
• EU storage sits at 81.7 percent, well below last year’s 90.7 percent, yet remains adequate with stable Norwegian flows and steady LNG arrivals. 
• Europe has imported 101.38 million tonnes of LNG year-to-date, over 16.7 million tonnes more than 2024. 
• In the US, futures climbed back toward $4.5/MMBtu as midday weather models added heating demand into late November and early December. 
• Lower-48 production remains very strong at 109.2 bcfd, holding inventories around 4 percent above normal despite rising exports. 
  
  

Outlook 
European prices are likely to remain under pressure unless cooler weather patterns re-establish in early December. US prices should stay supported near term by stronger heating demand expectations and record LNG exports, though high production will continue to cap upside. 

Ammonia

Market stays extremely tight into year-end as outages and sourcing challenges keep prices elevated. 

Key Factors: 

• Global ammonia supply remains heavily constrained, with little indication of relief before Q1 unless fresh US tonnes or additional Middle Eastern/Trinidad volumes re-enter the market. 
• Trinidad remains a major pressure point: Nutrien shut its 85,000 t/month ammonia unit on 23 October over port-charge and gas-availability disputes and has not restarted operations. 
• To meet its European contract obligations, Nutrien purchased 28,000 t for December loading in Trinidad at $690–695/t CFR NW Europe, confirming how tight the merchant market has become. 
• Spot availability east of Suez is similarly limited, and no meaningful new supply has emerged from the Middle East. 
• With no significant restarts or new flows, price relief is unlikely in the immediate term. 
  
  

Outlook 
Ammonia values should remain firm to higher through the coming weeks. Any softening is contingent on a restart in Trinidad or new export availability from the US Gulf or Middle East—none of which appear imminent. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrates firm ahead of CBAM, while sulphates remain broadly weak outside NW Europe. 

Key Factors: 

• Market participants are closely watching how buyers respond to higher January AN and CAN offers from Yara, LAT Nitrogen and other producers, with the CBAM start date approaching and prompting pre-CBAM positioning. 

• European nitrate demand remains subdued, but producers are holding firmer values for 2026 delivery, testing buyer appetite after consecutive price increases. 

• Sulphates stay overwhelmingly bearish across most major markets as demand softens and Chinese supply remains abundant. 

• The exception is northwest Europe, where AS is tightening, and any imports arriving from China now would land in January 2026, at which point CBAM duties apply, lifting expected cost and supporting regional values. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrates are likely to retain a firm bias heading into January as the market digests higher offers ahead of CBAM. Sulphates should remain under pressure globally, aside from NW Europe where regional values have seen a lift. 

Urea

Market softens ahead of India’s major IPL tender; Agrifields again sets standout L1. 

Key Factors: 

• Fresh granular urea business has been limited this week, with producer offers cooling to ~$480/t FOB, while bids have fallen sharply, some as low as $440/t FOB, reflecting caution ahead of India’s next move. 

• Sentiment remains shaped by the failure of RCF’s 15 October tender, which secured only ~430,000 t against its 2 Mt target. Repeated deadline extensions to 27 and 28 October did not yield further acceptances, signalling strong global seller resistance at Indian price expectations. 

• Attention is now fully on IPL’s 20 November tender for 2.5 Mt (1.25 Mt east, 1.25 Mt west), India’s largest inquiry since early 2025 and a crucial test of global supply. 

• Agrifields once again submitted the L1 into both coasts, offering $418.40/t CFR ECI and $419.90/t CFR WCI. Fewer than 10% of all offers were within $10/t of these levels, underscoring how aggressively priced the bid is relative to the wider market. 

• The market now awaits India’s counter to all participants at the L1 level, which will determine how many tonnes will actually be accepted and therefore the direction of global pricing into December and Q1. 
  
  

Outlook 
A firm-to-stable bias persists until India issues counters and acceptances. Should IPL secure volumes closer to its full 2.5 Mt target, suppliers will likely defend current global values. If acceptances fall short, the market risks a brief intra-tender soft patch before India returns almost immediately with another inquiry. 

Phosphates

Prices continue to slide as demand stays weak; downside remains but a floor is gradually forming. 

Key Factors: 

• Phosphate markets remain firmly bearish, with DAP facing the sharpest pressure amid a lack of spot demand across key importing regions. 

• Buying interest is muted globally, allowing prices to drift lower week by week, with India pushing aggressively for further reductions as inventories look more comfortable and subsidy uncertainty lingers. 

• China has effectively exited the export market again, and with current export quota volumes exhausted, no meaningful new supply is expected until at least Q2 2026. 

• Exceptionally high raw material costs for producers—particularly sulphur and ammonia—are limiting how far prices can fall before production margins are squeezed. 

• In Brazil, where MAP has led recent declines, some players suggest the market is approaching a floor, with replacement costs and limited alternative supply starting to cap further downside. 
  
  

Outlook 
Further modest declines are likely through the coming weeks, especially on DAP into India. However, structurally tight global availability, China’s absence from exports, and rising feedstock costs should start to slow the rate of decline, helping prices stabilise at higher-than-normal historical levels into early 2026. 

Potash

Prices steady to soft as supply remains ample and buyer resistance builds. 

Key Factors: 

• Potash values are expected to remain soft to flat, with no catalysts emerging to lift demand in the near term. 

• Brazil remains the key pressure point, recording its first price decline in 10 weeks as farmers resist higher inland prices and affordability worsens. 

• Strong global supply continues to weigh on sentiment, with producers showing increased willingness to negotiate to secure Q4 volumes. 

• Southeast Asia is stable but subdued, with plantation demand ticking over but insufficient to turn the market. 

• Early discussions for upcoming contract settlements in China and India are being closely watched, though no firm signals have emerged. 
  
  

Outlook 
With buyers hesitant and supply comfortable, potash prices are likely to remain under gentle downward pressure. Stability is possible, but any upside remains unlikely until contract negotiations clarify direction in early 2026. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1314	1.3057	1.1536

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Nov25	145-153	159-174	195-205	415-425