Market Reports

Wheat

Grain markets steadied after a sharp WASDE-led sell-off, but sentiment remains fragile. Heavier-than-expected global corn and wheat stocks reset price expectations lower, with only limited technical short-covering offering respite. Benign South American weather, aggressive Black Sea exports and subdued demand continue to cap rallies across global, US and European markets.

Key Factors

• The January USDA WASDE, released on Monday evening, blind-sided the market with significantly heavier stock and production, especially on corn. This was reflected in the price action seen on CBOT towards the end of Monday’s session, and carried through all the way in to yesterday’s, delivering a decisive bearish reset. Global corn and wheat stocks rose well above expectations, with US corn area, yield and ending stocks all revised higher, triggering the largest corn volume sell-off in over a decade.
• Corn remains the anchor of the grain complex. Although US prices have stabilised near $4.20/bu, helped by strong ethanol demand and short covering, the supply overhang and South American competition limit recovery potential and continue to pressure wheat’s relative value.
• Chicago wheat is holding just above $5/bu, helped by Plains dryness and Black Sea geopolitical risk, but ample Russian supply and rising global stocks cap upside. MATIF has outperformed marginally, aided by fund short covering rather than improved fundamentals.
• EU and UK markets remain heavy. Higher French corn output, weaker third-country export prospects and thin old/new crop carry discourage storage. Currency weakness offers only marginal support as Black Sea and South American origins remain more competitive.
• Chinese buying has shifted decisively towards South America, while global demand confidence remains fragile. Timely rains in Brazil and Argentina reinforce expectations of strong soybean and feed grain output, limiting any weather-led risk premium.
  

Outlook
Markets are transitioning from immediate WASDE-driven bearishness to a period of consolidation around these new lower levels, but direction remains supply-led. Without a material weather threat or geopolitical escalation, rallies look corrective rather than structural. Corn is likely to dictate near-term tone, with wheat and EU markets struggling to decouple from a broadly bearish global balance sheet.

Malting Barley

Old crop malting barley markets continue to show minimal premiums over feed as sellers look to liquidate positions. New crop prospects also remain poor thanks to weak demand outlook. 

Key Factors

• Some Q1 malting barley trades have taken place over the last week with cargoes from Denmark trading at near parity with feed barley. This is largely down to sellers looking to liquidate positions, furthermore the lack of generic feed quality means that all barley is malting grade, so premiums are minimal. 
• Strong demand for feed barley into 3^rd country origins is also helping to push premiums for malting lower and with a backdrop of strong demand this could continue for the short to medium term.
• New-crop has continued to trade for Jan-Jun’27 positions  but Jul – Dec’26 has continued to be void of bids. This is likely due to maltings needing to utilise stocks ahead of the new supplies come available.
• Lower UK spring barley planted area continues to be pressured by growers who are set on planting wheat, therefore any production issues could significantly impact malting prices in the months to come.
  

Outlook
Short-term upside remains limited due to minimal demand, but uncertainty about new crop production could result in a jump in prices if we see any quality issues here in the UK.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain steady both domestically and globally, with stable demand and generally slow farmer selling.

Key Factors

• Feed barley markets remain steady, with stable demand persisting, despite barley attempting to narrow the gap to wheat (now trading at roughly a £5-10 discount nationally).
• Global markets are also firm, supported by ongoing international demand that is offsetting the impact of larger than average Southern Hemisphere harvests.
• Domestically, the pattern is similar – demand for feed barley remains stable, and farmer selling continues to be slow.
• Export volumes are limited at present, but we expect a steady programme over the coming months. This should continue to support internal values, provided Northern EU markets do not experience an unexpected sell off.
  

Outlook
In the short to medium term, feed barley markets maintain a supportive outlook as demand continues to come through, despite barley looking relatively expensive.

Rapeseed

Oilseed and wider ag markets saw a volatile but broadly sideways week, driven by a combination of USDA data, currency swings and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Initial firmness on Monday morning gave way to post-report liquidation following higher US ending stocks for corn, wheat, and soybeans.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans were choppy over the week, initially supported by steady Chinese buying before coming under pressure after the USDA raised US ending stocks. Unofficial estimates have China down as buying close to 11mmt of US beans, nearing their initial commitments. The market is
• increasingly focused on South America, with a record Brazilian crop expected to hit export channels as harvest ramps up over the next two months. This caps upside potential, as Brazil is likely to become the cheapest origin.
• Soyoil  remained comparatively resilient, helped by biofuel policy rumours and tighter veg oil balances, offering some indirect support to rapeseed.
• Crude oil found support early in the week, with futures building in a geopolitical risk premium linked to Iran and wider Middle East tensions. Concerns over potential supply disruptions kept energy markets firm, which in turn supported veg oil values and the biodiesel complex. However, heavy API stock data and a sharp pullback raises the risk of a reversal pattern forming.
• Canola was volatile, initially retreating sharply from recent highs as optimism around China tariff negotiations faded, before rebounding strongly midweek on improved volume and speculative repositioning. Despite this bounce, the market continues to struggle to decisively break the 100-day moving average, highlighting technical resistance. Cash bids moving back toward $14/bushel encouraged farmer selling, limiting rallies. Ongoing focus remains on Canada–China discussions, as any easing of meal or seed tariffs would materially improve export prospects, while disappointment risks renew downside pressure for now.
• Matif rapeseed largely tracked outside markets, with early-week strength seeing futures briefly break above overhead resistance before post-USDA selling pulled values back toward key support levels. Currency played a major role, with EUR/USD swings amplifying daily moves. Technically, the market remains constructive while holding above €460, with €462.50–€485 hopefully set to define the next trading range. A sustained move through the €460’s would be counter-seasonal but achievable if canola and energy markets remain supportive. Conversely, a lack of positive China-related news leaves rapeseed vulnerable to another test of support.
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain headline-driven and technically focused. Soybeans face increasing pressure from South American supply, while crude oil direction will be critical for veg oil sentiment. Canola and rapeseed both hinge on developments in China–Canada trade talks and currency movements. In the absence of fresh bullish news, rallies may struggle to extend, but tight nearby balances and geopolitical risk should continue to provide underlying support.

Oats

Continued demand into Turkey is helping to support European prices and this could lead to tighter balance sheets as we get closer to harvest.

Key Factors

• Fresh trades into Turkey for milling oats continues to help support European prices and with Russian oats favoured into China we could see this flow continue for the short term.
• European millers continue to be largely absent from the market, however we normally start to see some demand for new crop in January with some customers looking to cover positions.
• Spain surprisingly bought some feed oats last week as domestic supplies fail to come available thanks to a lack of farmer selling.
• Here in the UK, low domestic prices continue to incentivise export flows with sellers looking to take advantage of the nearby demand and favourable £/€.
• Farmer selling continues to be slow and unless we see a strong rally it is likely that this will continue until they need to empty stores ahead of new crop.
• Low new crop milling oat prices are also encouraging growers to plant alternative crops which offer greater profit margins, and this will reduce production prospects for crop 2026 and tighten supplies.

Outlook
Short term we are unlikely to see a significant rally in prices unless there is a planting issue in the spring, but the lower planted areas will put greater reliance on good weather in order to avoid production shortfalls.

Pulses

Pulse markets continue to experience a subdued period, with limited fresh input and no clear directional impetus. Consumer engagement remains weak, characterised by only intermittent interest in old crop and minimal focus on the new crop. Activity through the middle market remains thin, with sporadic movement at best.

Key Factors

• UK feed bean markets remain very quiet, with reported trade again close to negligible levels. Values continue to sit around £35/mt away from competing feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal, leaving feed beans largely uncompetitive in rations. Feed demand remains flat, with no notable resurgence in buying interest.
• Australian new crop supplies continue to weigh heavily on global human consumption bean markets, effectively limiting opportunities for UK or Baltic origin beans into North African destinations for the balance of the season. While some uncertainty persists around Australian export elevation capacity and crop prioritisation, supply availability remains ample and continues to cap demand elsewhere.
• Lack of consumer demand remains the main topic of discussion this week, continuing to dampen market sentiment throughout the supply chain. Seasonal logistical pressures have eased somewhat, while global pea markets remain largely steady. A few upcoming trade events in the next couple of weeks may help generate some renewed interest. Canadian yellow peas are still looking for alternative markets, with discussions reportedly scheduled between Canadian and Chinese officials this week and next. In the UK, domestic consumption remains sluggish, constrained by cautious feed buyers and limited export activity.
• Processors and merchants have already secured required volumes for the 2026 crop and are reluctant to extend coverage at this stage, reflecting the broader consumer interest at this stage.
  

Outlook
The outlook for pulse markets remains neutral to negative, with limited support emerging from either feed or human consumption sectors. Ongoing uncompetitiveness versus alternative feedstuffs, combined with the continued export flow of Australian new crop, leaves beans facing a challenging and uninspiring near-term horizon.

                             
PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As preparations for the 2026 spring drilling season continue, attention is increasingly turning to seed availability and variety selection. Early planning will be crucial as growers look to position themselves for another competitive season, balancing performance, resilience, and market demand.

Key Factors

• Spring Cropping
• Spring Wheat
• Availability is tightening on Spring Wheat with Ladum (Group 1) and Alicium (Group 2) continuing to be popular choices on farm.
• Spring Barley
• Laureate remains firmly established as the benchmark spring barley, continuing to dominate the malting and brewing sectors thanks to its consistency and reliability. Alongside it, RGT Planet maintains a strong reputation for performance, while Skyway and CB Score offer robust agronomic profiles that deliver dependable results across a range of conditions.
• Spring Oats
• Merlin and Isabel continue to be our leading spring oat seed varieties, valued for their consistent on-farm performance and their support from end markets.
• Spring Beans
• Lynx maintains a strong level of performance and remains one of the leading choices.
• Spring Peas
• Our pea offering for 2026 provides a broad and versatile choice, with Kabuki, Adder, Daytona, Butterfly, and Concerto covering Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow market options. To further support crop establishment and yield performance, all pea seed will be supplied with Nuello iN as standard. This treatment is designed to enhance early vigour and maximise crop potential and will also be available as an optional addition across other spring-sown crops.
• Maize Portfolio
• At ADM, we are pleased to offer a wide selection of varieties, offering solutions from early to later-maturing varieties. Whether the focus is forage production, biogas feedstock or grain maize, the portfolio provides flexibility to suit differing farm systems, locations, and end-market objectives. We can also supply a game maize blend, combining varieties with differing maturity profiles. This allows the crop to remain standing throughout the season, delivering long-lasting cover while providing a reliable source of feed for birds.
• Autumn Cropping
• Interest is already building around winter wheat options for autumn 2026. Newcomer LG Defiance is generating significant attention, combining market-leading yield with an impressive disease resistance package. It is supported by a strong line-up of Group 4 varieties, including KWS Fowlmere, LG Challenger and KWS Aintree, alongside Group 4 soft wheat Sparkler. Each brings distinct strengths, allowing growers to tailor choices to their specific agronomic and marketing requirements.
  

Outlook
With demand expected to be high for both established favourites and promising new introductions, early conversations will be key to securing preferred varieties. A considered mix of trusted performers and innovative new genetics will enable growers to spread risk while unlocking improvements in yield, quality, and agronomic resilience as they plan for the 2026 season.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 
Prices firm in Europe on colder forecasts and low storage, while US slides on LNG outages despite winter demand outlook. 

Key Factors

• European gas futures rose to around €33/MWh, the highest since early October, as colder weather forecasts through late January lifted heating demand expectations. 
• EU gas storage has fallen to roughly 52.5%, well below the 65% level seen a year earlier, increasing market sensitivity to weather driven withdrawals. 
• Geopolitical risk remains elevated, with ongoing unrest linked to Iran posing a background risk to LNG trade, while parts of Asia are also facing colder conditions that could increase competition for cargoes. 
• In the US, futures fell sharply to around $3.17/MMBtu as reduced LNG feedgas flows weighed on prices, with outages at Corpus Christi and Freeport limiting exports. 
• Outlook
• European prices are likely to remain firm and volatile in the near term, driven by weather risk and low storage levels, with LNG availability the key swing factor. In the US, near term pressure from LNG outages may persist, but colder weather and any recovery in export flows could stabilise prices later in the month. 
  

Ammonia 
Tight market persists but focus shifts to returning supply and CBAM adjustment. ages despite winter demand outlook. 

Key Factors
• Prices are likely to remain supported in the very near term but should come under downward pressure as new supply from Ma’aden, GCA and Beaumont materialises. The pace and extent of any softening will depend on the timing and consistency of these returns, as well as how the European market ultimately adapts to CBAM in early 2026. 
Outlook
Prices are likely to remain supported in the very near term but should come under downward pressure as new supply from Ma’aden, GCA and Beaumont materialises. The pace and extent of any softening will depend on the timing and consistency of these returns, as well as how the European market ultimately adapts to CBAM in early 2026. 

Nitrates and Sulphates 
Sulphates soften post holidays while nitrates remain supported by constrained supply. 

Key factors: 
• Sulphate markets are broadly stable overall, though prices are easing in Southeast Asia and Brazil as post holiday demand fades and buyers step back. 
• Brazilian and Southeast Asian activity has slowed, with importers showing limited urgency at current levels following earlier coverage. 
• Nitrate markets remain comparatively firmer, underpinned by tight availability and limited spot supply. 
• Reduced operating rates across Europe and the US continue to cap nitrate output, restricting prompt availability into the market. 
• Producers are largely holding price positions, with limited incentive to stimulate demand given ongoing supply discipline. 

Outlook: 
Sulphate prices are likely to remain under mild pressure in the near term as demand remains subdued, particularly outside Europe. Nitrate markets should stay supported through the short term due to supply constraints, with any material downside unlikely until production rates increase or seasonal demand weakens further. 

Urea 
Geopolitical risk and Indian buying interest inject fresh upside into near term pricing. 

Key factors: 
• At the start of the week, urea markets were flat to firm, supported by competitive L1 offers into India which helped stabilise sentiment. 
• Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East later in the week added further support, triggering a sharp rally in US benchmarks. 
• NOLA values surged by around $20, with AG benchmarks responding in a similar fashion as risk premiums were priced back in. 
• NOLA currently represents a stronger netback than Indian business, encouraging sellers to prioritise Atlantic Basin placement. 
• With India’s Department of Agriculture actively pushing to secure additional tonnage, competition between destinations is tightening availability. 

Outlook: 
Near term sentiment has turned firmer, with geopolitical risk and Indian demand reinforcing each other. Prices have scope to push higher in the immediate term, particularly if Middle East tensions persist or India accelerates purchasing activity. Further clarity on Indian acceptance volumes will be key in determining whether this strength can be sustained. 

Phosphates 
Mixed signals persist as tight supply offsets weak spot demand. 

Key factors: 
• Spot activity remains limited, keeping overall price volatility contained. 
• MAP shows some upside potential, supported by tighter availability and higher exposure to rising raw material costs. 
• DAP continues to face downward pressure, with buyers pushing back amid poor affordability and ample short term coverage. 
• Elevated sulphur and upstream input prices are underpinning producer resistance to aggressive price cuts. 
• Weak spot demand across key importing regions remains the main bearish influence on the market. 

Outlook: 
Prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, with MAP biased slightly firmer and DAP drifting marginally lower. Any meaningful move will likely require either a pickup in demand or a further tightening of supply, with current conditions suggesting rangebound trade rather than a decisive trend. 

Potash 
Firming sentiment in Brazil contrasts with muted conditions elsewhere. 

Key factors: 
• Prices in Brazil are firming as suppliers report sold out positions through January and continue to test higher levels. 
• Pupuk Indonesia has floated a 145,000 t standard MOP tender for delivery between March and May, with offers largely clustered around $400/t CFR, providing a reference point for Southeast Asia. 
• Market activity in Europe and the US remains limited, with buyers largely on the sidelines. 
• India continues to wait on formal contract negotiations, with talks expected later in January and settlement likely in February. 

Outlook: 
The near term outlook remains broadly stable, with firmness in Brazil providing some support but insufficient momentum to lift global prices. Direction is likely to be dictated by India’s upcoming contract negotiations and the outcome of Southeast Asian tender activity, with downside risks contained for now but upside capped by subdued demand in Western markets. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1541	1.3439	1.1643

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Jan 26	147-160	160-170	195-205	395-405