Market reports

Wheat

Grain markets endured a volatile week, swinging between bearish supply data and bullish trade speculation. USDA stock reports weighed heavily on wheat and corn, pushing contracts to fresh lows, while Argentina’s tax manoeuvres and Australia’s bumper outlook added supply-side pressure. However, rumours of renewed U.S.-China trade talks lifted soybeans and stabilised grains late in the week.

Key Factors:

• Argentina’s Tax Policy Shifts, with the government in Buenos Aires briefly suspended export taxes, prompted a surge in soybean exports to China (30–40 cargoes). Wheat and corn saw limited direct impact, but the move reshaped near-term trade flows and cut into U.S. export competitiveness.
• Wednesday saw the latest release of USDA Stocks data, which put Sept. 1 grain inventories exceeded expectations by 265m Bu, driving CBOT wheat to contract lows. Wheat stocks at five-year highs and larger production revisions rattled markets, with funds extending net shorts across all three wheat classes.
• Australia & Canada saw revised wheat output higher, with Australia set for its third-largest crop and Canada approaching 40 MMT. A weaker Australian dollar added export competitiveness, reinforcing bearish global supply signals.
• EU soft wheat production and export forecasts rose, with MATIF trading under pressure from a strong euro. Russian output was revised higher, but exports slowed in Q3. Ukraine expanded winter wheat sowing, underpinning long-term export capacity.
• U.S. political risks (shutdown, Supreme Court rulings) coincided with Trump’s pledge to aid farmers via tariffs and hints at renewed China soybean deals. These factors shifted sentiment late in the week, with signs of short covering more so for oilseeds than grains.
  
  

Outlook
Global grains remain structurally heavy with strong supply from Australia, Canada, and Argentina pressuring prices. Yet, U.S.-China trade headlines and currency moves could spur sharp corrective rallies. For now, wheat and corn are trapped in a bearish range, with soybeans the swing factor should Chinese demand materialise.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets continue to show limited activity, characterised by weak demand, ongoing quality issues, and sharply reduced export prices driven by a large surplus across Europe. Although new crop prices hold a premium, poor farm profitability is likely to lead to a smaller barley planting area.

Key Factors:

• Demand for malting barley remains subdued, with no clear signs of recovery in the near future.
• Export prices are significantly depressed due to the European surplus, with FOB prices falling below domestic malting and even strong feed barley prices in the South West.
• New crop sustain a nominal premium over the old crop, essential to encourage planting amid tight farm margins, although demand is not actively trying to encourage acres for now.
• A decline in barley planted area is anticipated as farmers respond to unfavourable gross margins.
  
  

Outlook
Malting barley markets are expected to stay soft short term, with limited buying interest or price improvement. Nonetheless, potential support could emerge later in the season if demand picks up, aided by tighter availability this year and carryover stocks potentially rolling into the new crop.

Feed Barley

Barley prices are easing slightly on thin trade, with muted activity from buyers and sellers despite strong inclusion rates as feed. Export activity is once again slow, with Scotland the main region for fresh exports to Ireland, whilst English markets see little export support in the near term.

Key Factors:

• Barley values are once again creeping lower on the week, although on thin trade.
• Domestic barley inclusions remain strong, however buying activity from consumers is still rather hand to mouth. Farmer selling is picking up somewhat but is still below long term ‘average’ pace. Bid-offer spreads as a result remain wide, but the market continues to feel slight pressure in sympathy with falling futures markets.
• Export markets are slow, and Scotland is the only area of the UK that calculates to export to Ireland, although coverage at the destination is strong for Q4 and additional demand is not forthcoming. Scotland is likely to see some support as a modest export lineup develops, providing a much needed price floor, however exports show little sign of impacting English markets in the short term.
  
  

Outlook
Prices are expected to continue to drift sideways to lower with a lack of export price support and sporadic consumer demand. Longer term, values could see some support if demand picks up heading into the winter, with low forage availability and high barley inclusion rates for ruminant diets in particular.

Rapeseed

Ag markets have traded a volatile but largely sideways path this week, with external influences providing most of the direction. The USDA’s quarterly stocks report brought little fresh input to soybeans, while favourable US harvest weather and active farmer selling weighed. Energy markets were pressured by resumed oil flows from Kurdistan to Turkey, though OPEC+ meet this weekend to discuss further production cuts. Rapeseed markets continue to track external drivers closely, with currency shifts also tempering upside momentum across Europe.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans has swung both ways this week, initially supported by Argentina’s early withdrawal of its export tax break but later pressured by this withdrawal ending after only 2 days, favourable US harvest conditions, and muted Chinese demand. The USDA pegged quarterly stocks at 316 million bushels versus 325 million expected, a slight positive but not enough to outweigh hedge pressure. Trump has announced that tariffs will be used to support US farmers as the lack of Chinese buying is for ‘negotiating reasons’.
• Crude oil has been mostly lower, starting the week with pressure from the resumption of Kurdistan-Turkey oil flows, adding 180–230k barrels/day into supply. Russia’s extended ban on diesel exports highlights ongoing disruptions, but the dominant focus is this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. While production underperformance suggests limited scope for further cuts, sentiment remains cautious. Moves here continue to ripple into veg oil and wider ag markets.
• Winnipeg canola futures struggled under harvest pressure and heavy farmer selling, before bouncing modestly once trading resumed after the holiday. The market continues to battle resistance at its 20-day moving average, with strong board crush margins offering support but insufficient to reverse bearish harvest flows. Seasonality typically turns more positive into November, leaving scope for short covering rallies if speculative length returns.
• MATIF rapeseed futures stayed confined to a narrow range, with Nov repeatedly testing support above €470 while Feb trades between €463 support and a descending trendline around €473. Position rolling from Nov into Feb lifted open interest in Feb, giving improved liquidity. Currency has also been influential, with a firmer EUR/USD adding downside pressure. Futures do not show the nearby in a carry for the first time in two weeks, though rallies remain capped by a lack of fresh bullish input.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, oilseed markets remain rangebound with harvest pressure, muted Chinese demand, and uncertain policy direction weighing on sentiment. Soybeans will continue to react to US harvest pace and political rhetoric, while crude oil direction hinges on OPEC+ decisions this weekend. Canadian canola may see seasonal support build into November, though near-term pressure persists. MATIF rapeseed looks set to remain stuck in its narrow band, with outside markets and currency the dominant drivers until fresh fundamentals emerge.

Oats

A lack of milling oat demand continues to weigh on prices.

Key Factors:

• Minimal bids from EU millers continues to pressure markets with sellers looking at a market with no bids.
• Buyers are currently comfortable and happy to buy hand to mouth basis. Until something changes, we could see this pattern continue for some time.
• Farmer selling remains very poor and many are suggesting that they will shut the barn doors until much later in the year in the hope that prices will rise.
• Demand from customers typically heats up in Oct/Nov therefore we could see a pickup in bids in the coming weeks, but this is yet to be confirmed.
• Here in the UK farmer selling remains non existent with bids for milling oats falling to levels below where some feed oat buyers would value oats.
• Prices are already at export parity with the UK now the cheapest origin in Western Europe.
• Quality remains variable and with some consumers being more restrictive over quality some parcels of oats will end up going as livestock feed rather than going as milling.
• Low prices are continuing to impact growers decision making whilst they consider what to grow for harvest 2026.
  
  

Outlook
Low prices could see a big drop in new crop plantings, and this could support markets next year. But time will tell.

Pulses

UK and EU pulse markets remain under pressure, with demand still sluggish and the looming arrival of Australia’s new crop weighing heavily on sentiment. Human consumption buyers continue to focus on minimising cover until cheaper Australian supplies hit the market. A slight dip in GBP against the USD has offered little meaningful support.

Key Factors:

• Optimism around Australia’s harvest remains strong, with expectations of aggressive export flows once harvesting begins. North African buyers hold comfortable stocks and are working to stretch cover until Australian beans arrive at more competitive values.
• Domestic feed beans continue to lose ground against cheaper alternatives, with rapemeal trading under £180/mt on farm. At current levels, beans are roughly £30/mt too expensive to generate interest beyond core poultry rations, leaving fresh feed demand absent.
• The pea market is relatively stable, though consumer demand remains limited. While feed values have steadied, heavy Canadian stockpiles continue to cap global selling opportunities and dampen sentiment.
• Demand for next year’s pea buyback contracts is picking up, with attractive gross margins drawing farmer attention. Globally, focus is now shifting toward Canada’s planting intentions, which will be a key driver for future supply dynamics.
  
  

Outlook
As with last week, the coming large Australian crop weighs heavy on both domestic and export markets. A slight retreat of GBP is helping, but is no where near enough to entice fresh buying for export. Cheaper feed alternatives continue to limit the usage of beans by the feed sector, meaning beans still have plenty of work to do to find their place.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

We are now into October, and many growers have made a solid start to drilling winter cereals. Over the coming weeks, the outlook remains positive, with desirable weather and soil conditions expected to support a fast drilling pace.

Key Factors:

Winter Wheat – Certain varieties are beginning to run short, and choice will increasingly depend on delivery timescales. Demand remains strong for popular varieties such as LG Beowulf, SY Cheer, and Bamford. Additionally, many growers are likely to be drilling second cereals, making varieties treated with Latitude seed dressing a smart choice. Latitude is a specialist treatment designed to reduce take-all, a common issue in continuous cereal crops.

Winter Barley – Limited over-year stocks of Buccaneer are available, along with some new crop Craft, both ready for fast delivery.

Winter Beans – Production of Winter Beans has begun, and ADM Agriculture have Vincent and Vespa available in limited quantities.

Winter Oats – Mascani continues to be the preferred variety, favoured by both farmers and millers for many years.

Hybrid Barley – Hybrid barley remains a valuable agronomic tool, aiding weed suppression and providing several other benefits. There is currently limited availability of the new six row hybrid Inys – along with SY Quantock and Kingsbarn.

Outlook
Looking ahead, the outlook for drilling winter cereals remains positive with favourable weather and soil conditions supporting rapid progress. Growers are expected to prioritize securing their preferred seed varieties soon, particularly for winter wheat, where popular continue to see strong demand. The use of Latitude seed dressing will likely become more widespread as growers prepare for second cereal crops and seek effective protection against take-all disease.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 

European prices ease on strong storage and LNG flows; US futures rally on lower output and warm weather outlook. 

Key Factors: 

• EU futures traded €31–33/MWh, more than 40% below February’s €58 peak, as inventories hit 82.3% capacity (France/Italy above 90%, Germany at 76.6%). 
• Softer Asian LNG demand freed cargoes for Europe, bolstering supply, while NATO–Russia tensions continue to cap the downside. 
• EU seaborne Russian imports will be banned by 2027; traders eye possible earlier sanctions as a geopolitical risk. 
• US futures climbed to $3.4/MMBtu, a 10-week high, as Lower 48 output eased to 107.4 bcfd from August’s record 108.3 bcfd. 
• US storage sits 6% above the five-year norm and 1% higher year-on-year; LNG feedgas flows averaged 15.7 bcfd in September. 
  
  

Outlook
EU prices likely to remain rangebound near term, supported by storage but sensitive to geopolitical shocks. US futures have near-term upside from warm weather and lower output, though oversupply risks loom longer term with new LNG capacity. 

Ammonia 

Prices hold firm as supply tightness persists on both sides of Suez. 

Key Factors: 

• Market support continues into October, with persistent supply constraints underpinning bullish sentiment. 
• East of Suez faces sharper tightness, with Ma’aden’s prolonged outage in Saudi Arabia expected to curb regional supply through year-end. 
• West of Suez supply also remains constrained, limiting spot availability and sustaining firm values.
  
   

Outlook
Prices are expected to remain supported into Q4, with limited downside risk while outages and gas-related constraints keep supply tight. 

Nitrates and Sulphates 

Nitrates stay under pressure on weak affordability; sulphates may find near-term support from Brazil.

 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrate values remain soft, with poor farm-level affordability weighing on demand. 
• In Brazil, buying interest for nitrates has eased, adding to downward pressure. 
• Sulphates may buck the trend slightly, with Brazilian buyers expected to re-enter the market and provide short-term support. 
  
  

Outlook
Nitrates likely to remain weak into October, while sulphates could see a temporary lift from renewed Brazilian demand. 

Urea 

RCF tender sets near-term tone; US NOLA edges higher before river close. 

Key Factors: 

• RCF has floated a 2 Mt urea tender, closing 15 October, for shipment by 10 December. Market direction into Q4 will hinge on how much volume India secures. 
• At NOLA, barge activity firmed with trades at $392/st FOB on 1 October, up from $370–390/st FOB in late September. Paper markets also strengthened as the tender revived sentiment. 
• In the UK, FX volatility has added £6–7/t to import costs, with GBP/USD trading in a 1.333–1.351 range over the past week.
  
   

Outlook
The Indian tender is likely to set the Q4 benchmark. Larger Indian volumes would lend support, while muted uptake risks continued pressure from abundant global supply. 

Phosphates 

MAP weakens further while DAP holds ground; Chinese exports and Indian contracts shape Q4 outlook. 

Key Factors: 

• MAP prices have fallen sharply, leaving the product at a wide discount to DAP, which remains relatively better supported. 
• Ethiopia’s DAP tender saw counters around $120/t below the lowest offers, underscoring buyer resistance amid weak affordability. 
• China is set to end phosphate export inspections by end-September, with customs clearance required by 15 October, pressuring both sides to finalise cargoes for Ethiopia. 
• India’s Q4 phosphoric acid contracts settled $32/t higher than Q3, surprising the market, though the increase still leaves DAP comparatively expensive on a P₂O₅ basis. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices are expected to stay under pressure, with MAP particularly weak. DAP sentiment will hinge on whether Chinese cargoes move to Ethiopia and how firmly Indian buyers respond to higher feedstock costs. 

Potash

Prices hold flat to soft as Q4 contract talks near completion; demand remains muted. 

Key Factors: 

• Global demand remains subdued, with buyers hesitant despite ample supply. 
• In northwest Europe, Q4 contract negotiations are close to conclusion, with early signals suggesting either rollovers or small price cuts.
•  Activity elsewhere remains thin, with Brazil still leading the softer trend after recent declines. 
  
  

Outlook
With weak demand and sufficient supply, prices are likely to stay stable to slightly softer through Q4 unless fresh tender activity or stronger crop fundamentals provide support. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1487	1.3478	1.1731

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct25	134-145	149-169	200-206	390-400