ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global wheat markets remain caught between tightening physical supply risks and increasingly extreme speculative positioning. Russia-Ukraine disruption, elevated Red Sea risk and disappointing European crops are supporting nearby values, but hopes of renewed Black Sea flows continue to cap rallies. With funds at record-long positions and major buyers still cautious, volatility remains the dominant feature.

Key Factors:

• Black Sea risk remains the central driver, with Repeated attacks on Russian and Ukrainian port infrastructure disrupting flows and raising execution risk. Russian wheat remains attractively priced around $210/mt FOB, but the discount is increasingly being offset by the risk and cost of getting cargoes to buyers.
• Global buyers are being forced to adapt to the changing dynamics, with Saudi Arabia cancelling its 535kmt tender, highlighting resistance to current prices, although Pakistan’s subsequent 750kmt tender provides a fresh demand signal. With Black Sea availability uncertain, buyers are increasingly looking towards European, US and Southern Hemisphere origins despite higher prices.
• European supply remains a concern, with a combination of French heat stress, disappointing early French corn yields and Germany’s projected 20.8mmt of wheat production reinforcing concerns over European availability. EU corn imports are expected to rise sharply, while logistical problems on the Danube are adding further friction to regional trade.
• US crop concerns are becoming more balanced though, with late-season Midwest heat and weak corn ratings continue to threaten US yields, although improving rainfall is easing winter wheat planting concerns. US wheat demand remains underwhelming, with export commitments trailing last year, potentially forcing USDA to trim export projections.
• Looming over the entire Ag complex though, the funds have accumulated exceptionally large, long positions across agriculture, including record corn and soymeal exposure and historically high wheat length. The result is a market increasingly vulnerable to sharp liquidation if Black Sea tensions ease, but equally capable of extending higher if physical supply tightens further.
  
  

Outlook
Wheat is likely to remain highly headline-driven into Friday’s USDA WASDE report. The market needs to reconcile severe Black Sea execution risk with limited evidence of stronger US or EU demand and extreme fund length. Near-term support remains justified by physical tightness, but the scale of speculative positioning makes any geopolitical breakthrough potentially very bearish.

Malting Barley

As harvest activity across Northern Europe draws to a close, the market continues to wrestle with the consequences of a difficult growing season. Drought has left its mark on both crop performance and supply chain efficiency, with reduced river levels across parts of mainland Europe creating significant logistical challenges and increasing transportation costs.

Despite concerns around production, buying interest remains muted. Feed barley values have continued to strengthen, narrowing the gap between feed and malting markets and making it increasingly difficult for maltsters to justify higher premiums.

Within the UK, trade remains relatively quiet. Questions persist over the volume of crop that will ultimately meet malting specifications, particularly in regions affected by elevated nitrogen levels and poor grain retention. Scottish supplies are currently playing an important role in balancing quality requirements, although the industry is still waiting to see whether maltsters will respond by introducing greater intake flexibility.

The market finds itself at an interesting crossroads. Domestic consumers are weighing the cost of importing barley or malt against the cost of securing enough compliant UK grain. Their decisions over the coming weeks are likely to shape market direction through the remainder of the season.

Key Factors:

• Ongoing disruption to grain exports from the Black Sea region continues to support feed grain markets across Europe.
• Exceptionally low water levels are restricting the movement of grain and increasing freight costs throughout the continent.
• Crop quality remains inconsistent, with high nitrogen levels and excessive screenings reducing malting acceptance rates.
• Yield performance has varied significantly between regions, although industry estimates suggest overall production is materially lower than normal.
• Domestic maltsters remain cautious buyers, with alternative origins often appearing more competitive on paper.
• Limited grower participation continues to restrict available spot tonnage.
  
  

Outlook
The relationship between feed and malting barley markets remains the dominant influence on pricing. If feed values remain well supported, malting premiums are likely to remain under pressure.

Attention is increasingly turning towards procurement strategies for the balance of the crop year. If domestic maltsters maintain current quality requirements, competition for specification barley could intensify and lend further support to prices. Alternatively, a combination of specification flexibility and imported supplies could ease concerns around availability and reduce the need for aggressive domestic buying.

Feed Barley

The market has been quiet over the past week, and feed barley remains firm and competitively priced, with forage concerns once again limiting grower selling and supporting domestic demand.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley values continue to show strength in a market that is tight on supply.
• From a relative value perspective feed barley remains attractive, which should continue to support inclusion levels in animal feed rations.
• Forage availability remains a concern, with expectations for continued high levels of on-farm feeding. Origination is already becoming more challenging in ruminant regions as growers remain cautious given concerns around winter feed availability.
• Export markets continue to be uncompetitive despite destination values moving higher.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices will remain exposed to global geopolitical volatility, although attractive relative value and strong FOF demand should provide underlying support to UK prices.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have been choppy this week with a mixed fundamental backdrop. Weather, crop estimates and outside markets must drive price action, though geopolitics also continues to plan a key role. Soybeans were supported by fresh Chinese demand and firmer Brazilian values, although StoneX estimates and positioning ahead of WASDE added pressure. Canola repeatedly tested resistance around $840, while MATIF rapeseed held near recent highs. Crude oil added further support as energy markets regained some risk premium.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans: CBOT soybeans remained choppy, initially pressured by position squaring ahead of the US holiday before recovering as fresh demand emerged. Flash sales of US beans to China provided some support, though the market is getting used to these coming in line with expectations. Brazilian values have continued to rally as exportable supplies tighten. This has forced US beans to try and remain competitive, with China increasingly turning towards Argentina and Uruguay for nearby supply. US crop conditions were unchanged against expectations for a 1% decline, while StoneX left its yield estimate at 53 bu/acre rather than cutting to 52.5. This prompted some fund long liquidation ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE, with the market now waiting for confirmation of the USDA’s view.
• Crude oil: Energy markets provided increasing support through the week, with crude rising sharply despite OPEC+ leaving October policy unchanged. Concerns around Middle Eastern supply flows have returned to the market, particularly as physical shipping data appears less comfortable than official statements suggest. Restrictions around ship passage and renewed pressure on energy infrastructure have added a degree of risk premium. For oilseeds, a sustained move higher in crude remains supportive for vegetable oils and canola/rapeseed values, although the market remains sensitive to any easing in the current risk premium.

• Canadian canola: Canola initially struggled to confirm a breakout above the important $840 resistance level, before surging $16.60 on Wednesday to test it again. The subsequent $7 decline shows the significance of this technical level, with two failed attempts now leaving the market needing a convincing close above $840 to establish a new high. Support remains around the moving averages, meaning the broader short-term uptrend is intact for now. However, StatsCan’s increase in old-crop ending stocks by 300,000mt, combined with weaker soybeans, provided an excuse for funds to reduce length.
• MATIF rapeseed: MATIF rapeseed has tried and failed to make a meaningful new high again, we continue to trade within the range that was established in July. Wednesday’s session produced a potential hanging man pattern, suggesting the possibility of a reversal, while Thursday’s failure to extend higher added further caution. This is not yet a confirmed reversal, but the inability to break resistance is becoming a bearish technical signal, if we see a lower close today then we may trade back towards moving average support.
  
  

Outlook
The focus now turns firmly towards tomorrow’s WASDE, with the USDA’s view on US soybean yields likely to set the tone across the oilseed complex. Soybeans need to show whether recent demand can outweigh improving crop prospects, while canola requires a convincing break above $840 to maintain momentum. MATIF rapeseed remains supported but technically vulnerable after repeated failures at the highs. Crude oil remains an important source of support, although its risk premium could quickly unwind.

Oats

Activity within the European oat market has picked up noticeably as fresh harvest supplies emerge from Scandinavia. Buyers have shown a willingness to engage where quality and logistics align, although transportation remains a significant challenge across parts of Europe.

Low river levels continue to disrupt traditional freight routes, forcing more grain onto road networks and increasing the overall cost of movement. These additional logistics costs are becoming an increasingly important component of delivered values.

Closer to home, the UK market remains characterised by limited farmer engagement. Lower yields and disappointing grain weights have reduced confidence amongst growers, resulting in a reluctance to commit significant volumes to the market.

At the same time, elevated feed grain prices and widespread forage shortages are increasing demand from the livestock sector. This additional consumption is tightening available supplies and providing a firm undertone to the market.

Key Factors:

• Farmer selling remains subdued following a disappointing harvest outcome.
• Feed grain strength is encouraging greater oat inclusion within livestock rations.
• Quality performance has generally fallen short of expectations, with relatively few samples achieving premium milling specifications.
• Scandinavian supplies are attracting increasing attention from consumers seeking additional liquidity.
• Continued geopolitical uncertainty is supporting grain values across broader commodity markets.
  
  

Outlook
The wider grain complex is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Black Sea region, where any further disruption could quickly translate into additional support for feed and oat prices.

Beyond the short term, attention will increasingly focus on supply availability during the winter period. With domestic production falling short of expectations and farmer selling remaining restricted, imported oats may be required to bridge supply gaps and maintain continuity of supply into the first half of 2027.

Pulses

Almost all beans are now cut, with Scotland now moving into the Springs, and reporting strong yields with multiple reports of 6mt/ha! Availability remains a key topic of conversation with chatter suggesting that import business may be on the cusp of being written. Beans are still doggedly taking their direction from London Wheat, but as the details of the crop become known, for how much longer?

Key Factors:

• Feed continues to be the only shop in town for UK Beans overall, with the comparatively firm domestic prices relative to other origins effectively shutting the door on any meaningful export demand. Egypt continues to have large stocks, the Baltic are aggressively priced, and Australian new crop still looks appetising, all combining to result in why would you buy lower quality, more expensive UK beans?
• Domestic demand is still relatively focussed around the Poultry sector, with little interest from the rest of the feed market at these values, something which is hardly surprising as values continue to ration demand on the reduced production we’re seeing following the drought conditions earlier in the year.
• Continued rainfall is helping improve the quality of seed beds ahead of the start of the main autumn drilling campaign. However, with the performance of many pulse crops being deemed as lacklustre at best this season, will we see a further reduction in area moving into CY27? One thing that they do have in their favour is their nitrogen fixing ability, so could be a good hedge for those cereal growers nervous about the potential impact of the forthcoming CBAM legislation and what it will mean for fertiliser pricing.
• Buyers are largely remaining on the sidelines and traded volumes continuing to run at subdued levels. Prices are unchanged week on week, but competition from Eastern Europe and Canada is increasing, creating additional pressure on UK-origin opportunities.
• Looking ahead, the market remains well supplied and demand is yet to show any meaningful improvement. With alternative origins becoming increasingly competitive, we would expect feed pea prices to come under pressure as sellers compete for limited demand and buyers remain reluctant to commit to significant volumes.
  
  

Outlook
With harvest nearing completion, rising availability will increasingly test bean prices, particularly with domestic demand already rationed and export competitiveness limited. Any confirmed import business could provide support, but sustained upside will require a meaningful improvement in demand. London wheat remains the key price signal for now, while pea markets await clearer Canadian supply data and broader international buying interest.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Seed production is progressing well, with second and third runs now underway on key varieties. Thanks to the warm weather and early harvest, production is ahead of previous seasons. OSR drilling has also moved forward, supported by welcome moisture in recent weeks. Late drilling of OSR can offer several agronomic advantages – you can read more here: Delayed Drilling Blog

Key Factors:

• For growers needing top‑ups or last‑minute OSR orders, please get in touch. Several varieties are now limited or sold out across the trade, but we are pleased to offer Karat, the joint highest‑yielding hybrid on the Recommended List – for fast delivery. We also have stocks of Atom (Limagrain), Duplo (DSV), and others. All varieties are available via your Farm Trader or through our online shop. Consignment stocks are positioned across England for convenient collection, including DK Excited, Atom, and Karat. 
• Looking ahead to winter wheat, key varieties to consider include:

Arlington – a new Group 1 option. If you’re looking to try a new Group 1 with midge resistance, we have limited Arlington available – first come, first served.

KWS Scope – one of the stiffest varieties on the market.

LG Defiance – a new, high‑yielding Group 4 hard with strong yellow rust resistance.

Bamford – the market‑leading Group 3.

• Small seed demand is growing – whether you’re looking for a grass ley, SFI scheme mixture, cover crop or something else, we have a wide portfolio of mixtures and straights available. 
  
  

Outlook
As wheat drilling approaches, it’s important to factor in varietal choice based on end‑market requirements, location, soil type and seed‑bed conditions. Making timely decisions now will help set crops up for a strong start to the season.

Fertiliser

European and UK fertiliser markets have intensified further following fresh escalations in energy and geopolitical friction. European natural gas climbed by 8.3% in the last 7 days, reaching €79.1/MWh the highest level since December 2022. Natural gas storage levels stand currently at around 66% full as of early September, marking the lowest inventory level for this time in over a decade. The stores are refilling slowly at roughly 0.3% per day; inventories typically peak in early November. Analysts estimate levels will only reach 70-75% capacity before winter and the heating season, falling short of the EU’s 90% mandate window.

Oil prices reached $100.19 a barrel on Wednesday after the US hit five Iranian tankers in reprisal strikes after Tehran targeted one of its warships. Brent crude has not been as expensive since the end of July when a ceasefire between Iran and the US collapsed and now seems firm at the heavy end of the 52-week average (58.72-126.41).

On Monday Yara International officially opened Europe’s largest industrial-scale carbon capture and storage facility at its major ammonia and fertiliser production site in Sluiskil, Netherlands. The plant will capture and liquify up to 800,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. Captured emissions will be transported and stored 2.6km beneath the Norwegian continental shelf. Marking a landmark move for low carbon nitrogen manufacturing amidst intensifying EU carbon emission pressures.

Maritime bottlenecks near the Strait of Hormuz remain critical. No non-Iranian Urea carrying vessels have successfully cleared the Gulf, leaving roughly 12 vessels and 630,000t of urea stranded. Reports from the Saudi energy ministry that several energy sector facilities in the southern region of Saudi Arabia came under attack in the early hours of Tuesday, causing multiple fires. Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the missile and drone operation.

Urea
Global urea prices pushed firmly upwards both east and west of Suez. US NOLA barge prices rose by $9/st to trade at $448-452/st for September deliveries, driven by rising European gas costs. Middle East FOB values strengthened to $430-445/t, and Egyptian MOPCO concluded a prompt September export deal at $505/t FOB destined for Europe. Baltic Sea granular spot hovering around $390-410/t FOB up $15 week on week. For UK buyers, import costs continue to drift upwards keeping replacement costs elevated.

Nitrates and Sulphates
European nitrate markets remain firm again thanks to feedstock prices and buyer resistance as growers manage tight cash flows. At the same time, strong agronomic demand for balanced crop nutrition keeps nitrogen-sulphur grades in high demand, as sulphur deficiencies remain a major limiting factor for cereal and oilseed yields across UK soils. However, high delivered AN and NS pricing continues cause difficulties. Baltic Sea spot AN $340-370/t FOB.

Ammonia
Ammonia markets continue to struggle with high production cost floors caused by the natural gas volatility and geo-political risk. Domestic production margins keep being squeezed, causing producers to weigh up options trapped between expensive feedstock and cautious demand. Consequently, Agrofert (2.78 Mt/yr capacity) is preparing production cutbacks across European plants.

Phosphates
Global spot prices for processed phosphates have experienced continuous downward pressure. Sellers have shown increased flexibility and are dropping prices to secure liquidity, with Indian DAP sliding towards $900-920/t CFR, its lowest level since April. Despite finished phosphate prices falling, analysts note that high raw material costs particularly elevated sulphur and phosphoric acid values are acting as a solid floor.

Potash
Potash prices have edged slightly lower in major consumption hubs like Brazil and China due to comfortable local inventories and cautious, on-demand buying. In Southeast Aisia standard and granular MOP prices have remained mostly stable, but growing concerns over El Nino and dry weather conditions could contribute this further.

While potash imports have held up relatively well due to lower exposure to conflict-related supply disruptions compared to nitrogen or phosphates, overall grower purchasing margins remain heavily constrained heading into the autumn application window.

Israel MOP spot contracts sitting at $318-378/t fob during previous pricing period.

Outlook
Warnings were given in a statement issued by the NFU, NFU Scotland and AIC. The issued letter echoes what major UK suppliers are concerned about whether sufficient fertiliser can be imported, manufactured, stored, bagged and delivered to farms in time for regular application windows. Farmers are understandably hesitant to commit to early purchases due to cashflow pressures and harvest results following weather anomalies but leaving orders late risks overwhelming supply chain processing and transport capacity. In response to these pressures the NFU is calling for government backed interest free working capital loans to afford financial breathing space and secure domestic food production. CBAM compounding all of this, with its implementation set for January 1^st. It’s anticipated that a substantial chunk of demand will shift from Q1, 27 into Q4, 26. 

Looking ahead the UK and European fertiliser markets will remain reactive to issues in the Middle East and elevated input costs. The warnings of logistical bottlenecks have been issued, if spring and autumn ordering is delayed growers face the possibility of another season of elevated input costs and compressed margins.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1638	1.3546	1.1636

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sep26	176-186	198-208	235	460-470