Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets remained weather-driven, with corn outperforming wheat as heat and dryness across Western Europe and parts of the US Corn Belt raised yield concerns during key development stages. Wheat prices found intermittent support from lower US acreage and tighter production expectations, but harvest pressure, strong Black Sea export competition and subdued international demand continued to cap rallies.

Key Factors:

• Corn emerged as the strongest grain market, supported by repeated heatwaves across France and weather concerns during US pollination. French crop ratings deteriorated sharply, while traders added weather premium to US corn futures despite generally favourable crop conditions and improving rainfall prospects in some western growing areas.
• Wheat remained rangebound despite supportive US acreage revisions and expectations for lower production. French harvest results improved as cutting progressed, with soft wheat quality generally strong, but abundant Black Sea supplies and competitive Russian export forecasts continued to limit upside potential.
• European grain markets were increasingly split between wheat and maize. Rapid French wheat harvest advanced under hot, dry conditions, while maize prices strengthened relative to wheat as buyers considered substitution amid growing concern over reduced grain corn availability for the 2026/27 season.
• US markets focused heavily on weather ahead of the USDA WASDE report. Corn pollination risks remained the primary concern, while spring wheat ratings slipped modestly. Chinese soybean purchases and improving US-China trade dialogue provided additional supportive sentiment across the broader agricultural complex.
• Outside grains, energy markets strengthened on renewed Middle East tensions, lending support to vegetable oils and rapeseed. Currency movements remained relatively subdued, though earlier euro strength reduced European export competitiveness and contributed to pressure on Euronext wheat prices.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts through the remainder of July, particularly US corn pollination conditions and ongoing European heat stress. Attention will increasingly shift from acreage estimates to realised Northern Hemisphere yields and USDA balance sheet revisions, while strong Russian export availability and cautious import demand should continue to limit sustained wheat rallies.

Malting Barley

Another heat wave in Europe has brought the spring malting barley harvest forward in some areas and advanced crop maturity in others. Some crops will have been damaged by the heat whilst some are still holding on thanks to previous rains. It is still too early for the market to get concerned about a lack of malting barley supply given the large carry-ins and poor demand backdrop. Scandinavia is key to determining the market direction as any serious issues will tighten the balance sheet and buoy prices.

Key Factors:

• More hot weather in the EU and UK with temperatures in the mid 30’s to 40 degrees is likely to stress crops and advance plant maturity.
• Variable yields and quality being reported from both France and UK harvests.
• Secondary growth is widespread in English crops, and this is expected to see some high screening samples.
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, malting barley prices will continue to await data as the harvest progresses throughout Europe. Markets will likely ebb and flow within a tight trading range until greater confidence is identified of the overall S&D. Longer term, the UK outlook remains uncertain, however given the large available supply in Scotland, English prices will be capped by tonnages moving south.

Feed Barley

The winter barley harvest is progressing well with average but variable yields, while concerns over the spring crop, limited forward farmer selling, steady feed demand, and uncompetitive export prices are shaping a cautious barley market.

Key Factors:

• The winter barley harvest is now well underway and should largely be completed in England by the end of the week as warm temperatures return. Yield results are variable but overall are coming in about average. The big question mark will be the fate of the spring crop, where the market has concerns following recent heatwaves.
• Markets are seeing increased activity, but it is noticeable that all the farmer selling is in the spot position for logistics/cash flow. We are seeing very limited supply to the market for the deferred positions, which is keeping the market illiquid.
• Barley is pricing competitively into feed rations, which should keep demand supported.
• Export markets still do not calculate vs other cheaper origins.
  
  

Outlook
Spot markets will likely remain depressed if farmers are looking to sell for logistics. Deferred positions could see some support on healthy feed inclusions, particularly if we see further upside to futures.

Rapeseed

Ag markets experienced another volatile week, with weather, energy markets and technical trading levels driving price action across the oilseed complex. Soybeans rallied sharply on US heat concerns before easing as forecasts moderated, while crude oil regained strength following renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed both posted impressive recoveries, with technical breakouts improving sentiment despite favourable Australian crop prospects continuing to cap longer-term upside potential. Markets remain highly reactive to both weather forecasts and macro headlines.

Key Factors:

• US weather remained a dominant influence this week, with hot and dry conditions across parts of the Midwest raising concerns over yield potential and triggering strong speculative buying. Soybeans posted significant gains early in the week before giving some ground back as forecasts began to show temperatures easing over the coming fortnight. Crop ratings slipped slightly, though concerns over soil moisture may show another decrease into next week. We did see confirmation of a 472,000mt Chinese purchase of US beans, which provided some support when we had rumours of further trade. Attention also remains on potential progress in US-China tariff discussions, which could improve the competitiveness of US exports if agreements are reached.
• Energy markets finished the week sharply higher after renewed geopolitical tensions reignited concerns over crude supplies. There are still flows in the Strait of Hormuz, though operation is far from normal and will likely remain cautious while tensions are high again. Earlier optimism had kept prices relatively stable before sentiment shifted, allowing crude to recover around $7 over two sessions. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed another production increase for August, although this had been widely anticipated due to low global stocks which need to be replenished.
• Canola enjoyed a strong week, initially finding support from soybean strength before accelerating sharply alongside higher energy markets. Commercial buying remained evident throughout, suggesting crushers continue to find value despite weakening processing margins. Localised flooding in Saskatchewan appears limited, affecting only a small proportion of the crop, while growers remain well sold on old crop and are showing little urgency to market new crop at current values. Technically, the move through C$770 encouraged short covering, with resistance now emerging around the C$800 level.
• MATIF rapeseed recovered strongly after testing key chart support, reversing earlier weakness driven by improving Australian crop prospects. Prices successfully reclaimed and closed above €520 resistance, improving the technical outlook and opening the possibility of a move back towards the €540 area if we are to see this move confirmed. The €500 level continues to represent an important longer-term floor, while recent price action suggests the short-term downtrend may now be breaking. However, favourable Australian growing conditions and improving yield expectations are likely to continue limiting upside enthusiasm from a fundamental perspective.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain headline-driven in the week ahead. Weather forecasts across North America will remain critical for soybeans and, by extension, canola and rapeseed, while energy markets continue to influence vegetable oil values. Technically, both canola and MATIF rapeseed have improved their charts after recent breakouts, although confirmation through further higher closes will be needed. With harvest progressing across Europe and Australia looking increasingly favourable, rallies may continue to attract producer selling.

Oats

Like last week, market remain quiet with consumers awaiting news on the European harvest. Farmer selling remains very poor with the only trades coming from sellers looking to make space for logistics.

Key Factors:

• Another heat wave throughout large areas of Europe will advance crop development and we could see issues with quality as a result.
• The lack of any price rallies continues to discourage farmer selling with growers looking at levels which are below cost of production.
• UK harvest is expected to arrive 7 days earlier than normal but in some areas, this could be even earlier, however low specific weights and high screenings are expected from spring crops which have really suffered from a lack of moisture over the last 4 months.

Outlook
Prices are expected to be supported in the short term whilst uncertainty remains about new crop production and whilst farmer selling remains poor. Once quality is known it is likely we will see greater liquidity. Scandinavian production remains key for giving the milling oat market its direction, should any issues materialise then we could expect to see prices rally. Longer term the outlook for oat production in the UK remains a concern as the trend of lower plantings will only be bucked if prices rise and the economics for planting oats look attractive for growers. 

Pulses

The old crop Pulse market has come to an end, with new crop beans starting to fall ready, and many more likely to come fit in the coming weeks. The weather remains the primary focus for the pulse crop, with the continuing hot, dry weather turning crops quicker than expected.

Key Factors:

• The old crop bean market is now dead as the first fields of winter beans fall to the combines, with the recent hot and dry weather expediting the winter beans dying off. It is too early for any meaningful yield or quality indications, however the limited anecdotal information suggests slightly reduced yields, and poorer quality, although moisture levels are low, reportedly into the 10-12% region.
• European pea crops are now moving through a critical harvest window, with combines active in France and harvest activity set to increase across other producing regions in the weeks ahead. Extended periods of heat and limited rainfall since mid-March continue to place pressure on crop potential, and early indications suggest yields and quality may fall short of last season’s performance. A clearer picture of overall production should emerge as harvest data becomes more widely available.
• In the UK, the vining pea campaign is advancing rapidly. Early yield reports remain mixed, with considerable regional variation, although there is still an expectation that results could improve as harvesting progresses. As a result, it remains too early to draw firm conclusions on final crop condition, quality and yield outcomes.
• Market activity remains relatively quiet across both old and new crop peas. While some nearby coverage is still required between crop years, buyers continue to show limited urgency, with many opting to hold back until there is greater confidence around harvest progress, quality specifications and overall European production levels.
• As highlighted in recent market updates, social media communications and through the awareness campaigns issued by PGRO, growers should remain alert to the potential presence of Pea Bruchid Beetle. We strongly encourage all growers to follow the latest guidance and recommendations that have been circulated. Growers seeking guidance on crop management should make full use of the extensive technical and agronomic support available through PGRO, as well as Keith Costello’s latest crop bulletins. Members have access to a wide range of resources, while farm trading representatives can provide further information on accessing relevant advice and support.
• Given that a number of growers have taken recent PK holidays for various reason, now is a great time to refresh your soil samples and update your indices – with this information, you can then start to build a detailed view of what crop nutrition you actually NEED, which in turn will help your cropping establish as well as possible. Speak to your farm trading representative and they’ll be happy to help.
  
  

Outlook
The pulse market has fully transitioned into new crop, with winter bean harvest beginning earlier than expected and hot, dry conditions accelerating crop maturity. Attention now turns to harvest results across the UK and Europe, where yields and quality remain uncertain. As more data becomes available over the coming weeks, markets should gain clearer direction, while growers remain focused on managing quality risks and monitoring for potential pest issues.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Harvest has now begun for many across England, with crops of winter barley, oilseed rape, and even early pockets of wheat being cut. As fields start to clear, attention naturally shifts toward OSR establishment over the coming months.

Winter OSR

Success in OSR starts with the right genetics, drilling into adequate moisture, and making use of establishment schemes, companion cropping, and close agronomic monitoring. OSR remains a high‑margin crop and setting it up for a strong season begins with soil conditions and seed choice.

ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio is selected to deliver:

• High output
• Excellent oil content
• Strong agronomic performance
• Robust disease resistance

To explore the full range, please view our Oilseed Rape Catalogue.

Winter Cereals

The seed team has travelled across England, reviewing trial sites and assessing how varieties have performed under different conditions. Several varieties have stood out across locations, including:

• KWS Arnie
• LG Defiance
• RGT Hexton

All have remained impressively clean in what has been a high disease‑pressure year, particularly for yellow rust. In winter barley, the newly recommended hybrid SY Barnabus looks set to offer a significant yield step‑up for current Kingsbarn growers, combining exceptional yield potential with outstanding specific weight. For conventional barley, Capitol and Caravelle continue to lead on yield and are supported by excellent disease resistance and strong agronomic packages.

Small Seeds & Cover Crops

For growers planning to drill a summer cover crop, we offer a wide range of mixtures for fast delivery, providing multiple soil and rotational benefits. We also supply companion crops suitable for OSR, helping to deter flea beetle and support nitrogen fixation.

Outlook
As harvest progresses and planning begins for autumn drilling, variety selection and rotational decisions remain critical drivers of crop performance and profitability. With continued disease pressure and increasingly variable weather, choosing the right genetics will be more important than ever.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1728	1.3388	1.1417

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
July26	140-145	164-174	200	425-435