Market reports

Wheat

Commodity markets saw a volatile yet broadly firmer week, led by wheat and soybeans as renewed U.S.–China trade optimism, fund short-covering, and a weaker euro supported prices. Technical resistance remains the immediate hurdle for both Chicago and European futures, but underlying sentiment across the ags complex has turned more constructive.

Key Factors:

• U.S.–China Trade Developments have been the main driver this week, with markets oscillating on shifting trade deal signals, culminating in China suspending tariffs and pledging substantial soybean imports. However, U.S. prices remain uncompetitive against Brazil, suggesting any near-term demand gains may prove symbolic rather than structural.
• Wheat rallied to multi-month highs, buoyed by technical momentum, speculative short-covering, and geopolitical risk. Russian export quotas and Australian weather delays added support, while European markets benefited from euro weakness and strong fund activity.
• After a sharp $1.17/bu rally, soybeans corrected on weaker South American premiums and a firm U.S. dollar, before rebounding on China tariff news. Meal led early gains but softened late week, while biofuel-linked bean oil lagged on waning demand expectations.
• Corn traded narrowly, anchored by solid U.S. exports and stable South American weather. Ukraine’s harvest neared completion, and technical charts suggest imminent range breakout potential. U.S. ethanol output reached record highs, adding minor fundamental support.
• Closer to home, MATIF wheat breached €200/mt as fund short covering accelerated; London May’26 futures hit £181/t. Domestic basis softened slightly amid light farmer engagement, though inverses between old and new crop months point to optimism for the 2026 harvest.
  
  

Outlook
With funds unwinding shorts and trade optimism underpinning sentiment, near-term bias remains mildly bullish, though strong technical resistance caps upside. Sustained rallies hinge on confirmed Chinese demand and South American weather trends, while global supply abundance tempers medium-term price potential.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets once again remain without activity, and demand continues to be sidelined. Prices are flat as a result.

Key Factors:

• Domestic and export markets are unchanged on the week.
• FOB markets on the South Coast remain below feed which continues to limit export activity.
  
  

Outlook
We do not see downside to malting barley values in the short term, whilst feed barley demand remains strong. Once again, we may even see support to prices as the season draws on if quality becomes more challenging to secure, particularly looking ahead to a tighter S&D in crop 26.

Feed Barley

We continue to see supported barley values on the week, as firmer futures set the tone, meanwhile spot export business continues to take place to Spain/Portugal.

Key Factors:

• Continued nearby buying interest in Spain/Portugal is supporting prices on the East Coast. Despite a large domestic crop production this season, farmers in Spain are withholding grain from the market, which is leading traders to cover their commitments with imports.
• Meanwhile, barley is maintaining its competitiveness in feed rations domestically, which keeps a bid under inland values.
• New crop is largely undiscussed, and demand is not engaging for now.
  
  

Outlook
We expect to see support in the short term whilst demand in Iberia remains. Longer term, the Southern Hemisphere harvest may start to undermine international values, but it feels like the UK market will struggle to push much lower whilst domestic markets are maintaining demand.

Rapeseed

Oilseeds traded mixed this week as currencies, politics, and shifting trade flows dominated direction. Soybeans moved sharply higher over optimism around renewed China–US relations. Crude oil was choppy as sanctions and OPEC+ policy didn’t bring any significant direction. Canola and MATIF rapeseed largely mirrored wider oilseed moves, both finding solid technical support but struggling to build momentum amid cautious fund activity and limited commercial participation.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have seen a good move to the upside after US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments that China will purchase 12mmt of soybeans by the end of January 2026. We have also seen China suspend reciprocal tariffs on the US, showing that they are working to further their relationship. This has brought US beans to a point of being relatively expensive compared to South American though optimism remains for now.

• Crude oil markets saw volatile but ultimately softer trade, with prices slipping below recent highs despite lingering geopolitical support. OPEC+’s decision to pause output increases for Q1 2026 was interpreted as a sign of weaker demand expectations, while record US production and a build-up of sanctioned barrels in floating storage weighed on sentiment. Technical action suggests consolidation between $80–$84 per barrel as traders weigh macroeconomic signals against tightening supply forecasts into winter.
• Canola remained range-bound but is now trading on little volume as both farmer selling and commercial buying have tailed back. Early-week losses tied to unresolved China trade tariffs were partially offset by dryness concerns across the Prairies and reports of renewed demand from Pakistan and Mexico in 2026. Crush margins continue to look attractive, providing underlying support.
• European rapeseed edged fractionally lower over the week, tracing moves in canola and crude while holding key chart support near €475. Resistance around €480–484 capped rallies as farmer selling picked up at those levels. Technical traders note the market remains trapped between Fibonacci retracement levels, with speculative positioning light and volatility subdued, though we were due a pullback to the previous strong move. Biofuel margins remain favourable, but currency strength and muted demand have kept upside momentum in check.
  
  

Outlook
Oilseed markets look set for continued consolidation near current ranges. Many hinges on follow-through from China’s policy shifts and any confirmed US export sales. Crude oil direction will remain a key external driver for vegoils, while canola and MATIF rapeseed are likely to track headline risk and currency swings. Overall, underlying fundamentals remain supportive, but traders appear reluctant to chase rallies without clearer evidence of new demand.

Oats

Progress of oat tenders still unknown, but there is potential for fresh demand to come.

Key Factors:

• The state of the European oat market continues to be uncertain given the lack of fresh demand. Farmer selling remains poor and the majority of sellers are coming from those who already have tonnages on the books.
• Oat millers continue to say that that they are awaiting feedback to their supply tenders but that there is Q4’25 and Q1’26 positions to cover.
• Further depreciation in GBP Sterling vs the Euro (£/€) continues to make UK oats more competitive into EU and 3rd country destinations and this could add some support to UK prices should any export business get traded.
• Strong exports are expected out of Scandinavia over the next few weeks, and it will be interesting to see what impact this has on further Swedish/Finnish selling appetite.
• Feed oat demand remains poor, and this is only leading to lower prices. However, values are struggling to fall much further given the lack of farmer selling appetite.
• Here in the UK farmer selling continues to be slow with growers sighting a greater availability of storage and therefore given the low prices they see no need to sell at these levels.
• The good autumn drilling conditions continues to see UK growers opt to plant wheat given it has the greatest gross margin. This is likely to impact the planting of oats for harvest 2026 and this could lend itself to a bounce in prices should there be a big drop in supplies.
  
  

Outlook
The best thing to stimulate a rise in prices is low prices, at some point prices will rally, the question is when.

Pulses

A steady week on Pulse markets, with the same themes as ever, general competitiveness against Australian new crop for Human Consumption markets and other feedstuff options pricing more aggressively into domestic feed diets. Overall, pulses are still lagging other commodities in their competitiveness and will need to see a decline in values to buy some wholesale demand going forward.

Key Factors:

• With winter formulations now more or less set amongst the compounders, it is unlikely we will see a significant increase in demand from the feed sector, with the summer run being the next big formulation change. In turn, bean values will likely remain muted, which is unsurprising considering they are still c. £25/mt away from calculating against alternatives such as rapeseed meal. Whilst it is unlikely we’ll see beans entirely close this gap as the SnD is relatively balanced for the most part, it is still likely they will have to come lower to find those final pieces of demand.
• The Australian crop continues to go from strength to strength, and Human Consumption buyers are still primarily focussed on the higher quality beans that this will bring. Indications and chatter continue to suggest deeply aggressive values, with both UK and Baltic beans struggling to compete.
• The pea market experienced a notably quiet week, with subdued consumer demand and elevated stock levels continuing to push prices downward—a trend expected to carry into 2026. Last week’s announcement of India’s implementation of a 30% import tariff on yellow peas has further impacted global pea prices, leaving Canada searching for alternative markets to absorb its substantial exportable surplus.

• Additionally, buyback opportunities for 2026 are nearing completion, with expectations that the UK will secure sufficient supply to meet current demand in the coming weeks as buyers adjust their strategies to align with evolving customer demand projections.
  
  

Outlook
UK pulse prices remain unattractive compared to competing feedstuff options, and demand is stunted as a result, with a likely decline in values as we progress towards the end of the season. The large looking Australian crop continues to weigh heavily on sentiments across the Human Consumption market, slowing any fresh demand to a trickle at best.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Although thoughts have certainly started to move towards covering seed requirements for spring cropping options, there is still opportunity for sowing winter wheat behind root crops, including sugar beet and this continues to bring in spot demand for seed over the course of the past week.

For those still looking to put further winter wheat in the ground, we have several varieties available suitable for late drilling, including SY Cheer and Skyfall (which has a very wide sowing window right through into the early Spring) with floor stock available along with the winter bean seed variety Vespa – available for fast delivery.

For those looking ahead to the spring we have a wide portfolio of varieties across a range of key species.

• Spring Barley – Laureate will likely remain the market leader once again in spring 2026 as a variety of choice to farmers and end users alike we have seed available, along with a wider portfolio including RGT Planet, CB Score and Skyway.  We have availability to pre-Christmas delivery for anybody looking to establish spring barley in the coming weeks.
• Spring Peas – we still have limited availability on our buyback contracts – including on the marrowfat pea variety Kabuki, Butterfly and Daytona are our varieties of choice in the green pea category.  For 2026 we will be offering all our pea seed with Nuello iN seed treatment as a standard. Syngenta have some excellent data in pulse crops, and we believe in giving the crop the best potential opportunity to maximise yield and therefore returns on farm.
• Spring Oats – we have access to a range of varieties including Merlin, WPB Isabel and the new variety Caledon.
• Spring Beans – Lynx looks like to remain one of the leading varieties in this area and we have seed available.
• Maize – we have a wide range of varieties to offer across a range of maturity classes, please speak to your ADM Farm Trader for more details to meet your specific requirements.
  
  

Outlook
As more people start to look towards their spring requirements selecting varieties to meet end market demand, coupled with yield potential and a robust disease resistance and agronomic package is essential to maximise your returns in harvest 2026 and as such it is now a great time to be engaging with your ADM Farm Trader to discuss your demands, and secure seed requirements for the season ahead.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European gas rangebound on mild weather and ample LNG; US rallies on colder outlook and record exports. 

Key Factors: 

• EU futures steady near €32/MWh, holding an 18-month low range as mild mid-autumn temperatures curb heating demand. 
• LNG supply remains abundant, with a record wave of new capacity from the US and Middle East offsetting lower storage levels. 
• EU storage sits at ~83%, roughly 12 percentage points below last year, with some countries moving into early withdrawals. 
• Long-term: the EU’s 2027 Russian LNG ban will remove ~17 bcm of supply, driving reliance on alternative long-term contracts. 
• US futures above $4.30/MMBtu, highest since March, driven by stronger heating demand and record LNG exports.
  
  

Outlook 
EU prices likely remain rangebound until colder weather arrives or LNG supply tightens. In the US, weather and exports remain key upside drivers, though high production keeps the market well supplied. 

Ammonia

Global ammonia remains tight with firm sentiment and very limited spot supply. 

Key Factors: 

• Market fundamentals stayed tight through the end of the year, with spot tonnes difficult to source on both sides of Suez.
• The Ma’aden MPC outage in Saudi Arabia continued to restrict availability east of Suez into December.
•  Supply was also constrained west of Suez, with sellers holding firm and very little fresh availability.
•  Some producers indicated that supply may improve gradually in Q4, though high prices are starting to raise concerns about demand destruction. 
  
  

Outlook 
Prices are not expected to ease in the coming weeks, with tightness likely to persist into December before any meaningful relief in early Q1.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Nitrate prices continued to firm across Europe as producers pushed January offers higher, while sulphates softened on weaker global demand. 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrate values climbed again with renewed buying interest and growing confidence ahead of spring.
• Yara raised January AN and CAN prices on 3 November, marking its second increase in 15 days.
•  LAT Nitrogen also lifted January AN and CAN offers on 31 October, reinforcing the upward move.
•  Import activity in the UK remains light, which increases the risk of constrained spring availability and higher replacement values.
• In contrast, sulphate markets moved lower as demand faded and Chinese supply increased, particularly into Brazil and Southeast Asia.
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrates look supported into year-end as producers maintain price discipline and buyers begin positioning for spring. Sulphates are expected to stay under pressure until demand improves or Chinese export flow eases. 

Urea

Urea prices should remain stable-to-firm as the market waits for India’s next move. 

Key Factors: 

• The market is expecting a fresh spot tender from IPL in early November after the previous RCF tender attracted acceptances for just 430,000 t, far short of the 2 Mt requested.
• In an unusual development, RCF has now floated a long-term tender seeking a minimum of 2.5 Mt/year of prilled or granular urea for three years, extendable by two.
• The long-term tender suggests India wants to secure more predictable supply after repeated shortfalls in spot purchasing.
• A near-term IPL tender remains the key price driver: stability will continue until that inquiry lands, although delays could prompt temporary softening in the intra-tender window.
• Despite India holding a sizeable 7.5 Mt of urea heading into December, production remains far below domestic requirements, meaning import demand will continue through 2026.
  
  

Outlook 
Prices look supported heading into the Rabi season. A prompt IPL tender will keep values firm, while a prolonged delay is the only factor likely to create short-term softness. 

Phosphates

DAP and MAP are expected to continue easing through Q4 as resistance to high prices grows and buyers become less urgent than earlier in the year. 

Key Factors: 

• Demand has softened across major import regions, leaving suppliers with fewer options than during the peak of the rally.
  
   

Outlook
Prices are likely to drift lower through Q4, though the downside is limited by China’s withdrawal and tight global supply. Values remain high by historical standards, but sentiment is weakening. 

Potash

The short-term outlook remains muted with a stable-to-soft bias, as buyers stay cautious, and liquidity remains thin across major import regions.

 

Key Factors: 

• Southeast Asia shows pockets of demand linked to palm oil plantations, but buyers remain selective and unwilling to chase higher offers.
• Overall supply remains comfortable, and crop price pressure is limiting affordability, reducing urgency among buyers.
  
  

Outlook 
Until new China and Brazil contract benchmarks emerge, prices are likely to stay largely rangebound with mild downside risk. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1351	1.3050	1.1492

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Nov25	142-152	157-172	195-205	405-415