Thursday 9 January 2025

Wheat

• Chicago prices have weakened $5.61 per tonne week on week.
• The colder snap entering the US plains caused a few ripples in the market, although markets have eased back. US wheat exports had reached 12.7mln t as of January 2^nd 2025, 55% of the current yearly projection with five months left in the marketing season (end-May). Despite the fact US National crop ratings won’t be released until April, ratings for winter wheat during December in Kansas, the top producing state, declined, even as dry conditions subsided. 47% of the crop was rated good/excellent, compared with 55% in late November. Ratings also declined in Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, but improved in Montana and Colorado.
• European prices have followed the weaker global trend, trading down €4.50/t week on week. EU soft wheat exports totalled 11.2mln t as of January 5^th 2025, down 34% year on year. The trade continues to see if additional demand comes back into the EU as Black Sea exports decline, although strong competition from southern hemisphere supplies will likely limit opportunities.
• UK prices have also declined, trading down £2.65/t week on week. Physical delivery premiums remain historically high, mainly driven by the lack of fresh supplies coming to the market. However, with an apparent ‘top-heavy’ balance sheet, and no price incentive to carry wheat into the 2025/26 season, the expected rise in farmer selling may see the delivery premiums ease back.
• In summary, not a lot to talk about. Most are just returning for the festive break, and reconnecting with the markets. Short-term wheat supplies are still plentiful, but declining global stocks and a potential lower crop, and export availability, from Russian may provide some longer-term support. For now, the USDA are out tomorrow with their latest batch of reports (US and Global S&D, US stocks and US planting) but with little change expected for the wheat numbers, focus again will be mainly on the corn and beans numbers.

Malting Barley

• The old crop market remains quiet, with little demand and very slow farmer selling as premiums remain at multi-year lows.
• The new crop market is showing more activity, with some trades taking place at improved premiums of over £40 per metric tonne.
• Farmer selling of new crop barley is still limited to start the year, but is expected to increase as the spring planting campaign gains momentum.
• Over the coming months, the progress of spring planting will play a key role in determining market trends, with new crop supply certain to be lower than crop’24

Feed Barley

• The weaker sterling against the euro this week has improved the UK’s competitiveness in the export market, resulting in some cargoes being traded into Ireland.
• This is providing support for feed barley prices in the short term, leading to increased farmer selling activity.
• Domestic markets remain subdued, with first-hand consumers staying out of the market for now. Many consumers are well-covered for their immediate needs and are rolling contracts into deferred positions.
• Significant consumer activity is unlikely before summer, unless there is a significant continuation of the cold weather which continues to drive spot demand.

Rapeseed

• Markets have remained choppy this week as it feels like a slow return to the trade after the holidays. Soybeans are slightly lower week on week, largely driven by comments that rains are expected in Argentina between the 16^th and 22^nd January which would bring significant relief from recent hot dry conditions. We have seen anther flash sale of 120,000mt beans to Unknown, but ahead of this weeks USDA report this didn’t have much of an impact on price. Main expectations for the report are an increase in Brazilian production following the favourable rains they have been having all month. A very slight reduction in Argentina crop production. US production is expected to be around unchanged and world stocks at 132.20 billion bushels vs. 131.87 last month.
• Energy markets have been higher this week with crude up sharply as improved sentiment surrounding the Chinese economy continues to lift prices. We have also seen Saudi Aramco state that they will raise their crude oil selling price to Asian customers by more than expected. Crude stocks are now 15.464 million barrels below last year following last week’s decline of 1.178 million barrels. A Bloomberg survey has projected OPEC’s combined crude oil production in December to be 120,000 barrels per day lower than November.
• Indonesia is now estimated to need another 1.5 months to clear B35 stockpiles and adjust infrastructure to suit the B40 policy. Indonesia trade ministry has issued a regulation on exports of used cooking oil and other palm oil residue in an attempt to secure supply of the raw material for their cheap cooking oil program and to support the implementation of the B40 blending.
• Canola prices have slowly come higher this week, supported by energies as an improvement in Soyoil values has helped ease board crush margins further. Export disposals for the last week of the year were 27% lower than expected as it seems the majority of Chinese sales that were on the books have been executed. Anti-dumping investigations continue to hold off any further buying interest until we receive a further update. Commercial stocks fell 11% to 1.340 mmt, still a comfortable number which represents 4 weeks of usage. Official exports for August to November show a significantly lower figure to China for November. Total Chinese canola imports are at 2.682mmt though this is higher than last years 2mmt. Japanese imports continue to improve, now at 536,000mt, a 155,000mt increase.
• EU rapeseed prices have also slowly been supported, allowing prices to come back towards recent highs. The EUR/USD reaching new lows has helped EU prices and looks to continue to do so. EU rapeseed imports for the crop year to date are at 3.07mmt vs. 2.99mmt last year. In Australia, harvest figures continue to look positive with some raising their production estimates as high as 6.2mmt vs. most reports are still sub 6. From here, prices do have a strong resistance to beat if they want to continue much higher and we do usually see a drop off this time of year until February.

Oats

• European oat markets have seen very little trade over the last week with the majority of market participants on holiday.
• Demand for milling oats remains poor with many buyers reporting to be well covered through Q1 and well into Q2.
• Prices for milling oats is hard to find with sellers reporting to be offering into a void.
• Feed oats are reporting to see some activity, however there does seem to be a wide delta of €15-20 between bids and offers. Demand into Spain currently doesn’t calculate at the numbers being offered.
• Here in the UK demand for milling oats remains very slow with Q1 positions well covered and some covered through Q2.
• Good quality and low prices are helping the UK to be competitively priced and this should help have a positive affect to our demand.
• Cold and wet conditions over the last week could have an impact on the developing winter crops, but quantifying this will not be known until the water subsides and crops start to grow again.
• Bottom line, markets continue to have a negative tone, however the prospects of new crop will soon start to focus the market direction.

Pulses

• Overall, the pulses market has been quiet for the last week, with some limited interest in both domestic feed and human consumption for export. Domestic buyers are still showing little interest in feed beans at the current pricing parities, and the influx of Australian new crop Human Consumption beans in to North Africa are starting to weigh on interest in European and UK beans as a result.
• Australian Human Consumption New Crop imports in to Egypt continue to look good in terms of both quality and price, with the Australian harvest going well and production better than expected. There is still some limited domestic demand here in the UK though for Beans, so if you have good looking beans still in the shed but yet to be sampled, it is worth sending a sample in sooner rather than later. Limited domestic demand will still remain, however premiums could well have started to come under pressure by then, if there is a late flurry of decent beans coming forward.
• There has been some limited interest in domestic feed, although still broadly muted. Whilst pricing is starting to look more attractive, due to a pop in imported feedstuff levels, mainly due to a weaker Pound, domestic feed beans are c. £15/mt away from competing. Whilst a little more attractive than previously seen, feed beans still need to close the gap further to buy some demand from the ration.
• Looking to the week ahead, the UK is in for a largely dry, aside from the SW and Wales, and slightly cooler than normal week this week. With winter crops currently in dormancy, this shouldn’t cause too many issues, and the dryness will no doubt be a welcome reprieve following the heavy rainfall of the past week and localised flooding.
• Furthermore,  UK pea prices track sideways to start the new  year. Consumers are taking their time to return to the market to take additional coverage for 2025 given the recent influx of cheaper Canadian peas now reaching Europe. That said we have to remain hopefully demand  will return in the coming weeks.
• Looking ahead, as mentioned last week we are now seeing consumers starting to look at coverage the 2025/26 season. We still have availability of our large blue pea buyback for 2025/26 so please contact your Farm Trading representative for further details.
• Finally, a reminder for those eligible for PGRO membership, if you’re not already on the PGRO mailing list, sign up here, where levy payers can access a wealth of free advice and support, drawing from PGRO’s extensive knowledge on pulses.

Seed

• Interest in spring barley is increasing, as the early drilling period begins to approach and we have stocks of Laureate, RGT Planet, CB Score and RGT Asteroid to offer with buy back contracts.
• Pulses are beginning to enter the thought trail as one of the best break crops for lead in to cereals, along with some very attractive offers on buy backs for human consumption on large blues.
• SFI still creates interest, we have a full range to offer for all situations.
• Maize seed, we have most of the country’s leading varieties to offer from the ultra early maturity varieties to the later maturing
• For any of the above please contact your Farm Trading representative for further information and offers.

Fertiliser

Market Overview

• With the 2025 European spring season now underway global nitrogen markets remain the primary focus, driven by a strong demand outlook and tightening supply conditions. In the UK, urea prices have risen by £30/t post-Christmas, reflecting global market sentiment, while ammonium nitrate (AN) prices increased by £5/t, with CF Fertilisers revising its Nitram offer. Tightening stock levels and replacement cost pressures continue to support price momentum.
• India’s urea market is central to the global nitrogen story, with the country poised to issue a fresh tender after its 19^th December tender failed to secure anywhere close to the targeted 1.5 Mt. Subdued December sales in India have further fuelled the need for imports, with buyers expected to pay a premium above previous tender levels. Supply constraints and increasingly robust demand from key import regions are exacerbating the global tightness, while Egyptian FOB values have surged into the early $410s/t.
• In Europe, Yara raised ammonium nitrate prices significantly, with CAN 27% offered at €335/t bulk CIF and AN 33.5% priced at €425/t bulk CPT for February delivery. These increases, alongside tightening supply, highlight growing cost pressures in European nitrogen markets. UK importers remain cautious, as replacement values are expected to continue driving upward price adjustments.
• Potash markets show a cautiously bullish outlook, with spot prices seeing modest increases in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the US. Affordability remains a key driver, and demand is forecast to slightly outpace 2024 levels. Producers are firm on offers, setting the stage for potential price hikes as global fundamentals tighten.
• Phosphate markets remain steady, supported by tight supply despite affordability challenges. Moroccan exports are expected to rise in early 2025, though producers remain cautious to preserve price stability. Scarcity in supply is likely to underpin prices in the near term.
• Meanwhile, European natural gas futures are stabilising at €45.6/MWh, reflecting forecasts of milder weather and steady LNG imports. However, storage levels remain below seasonal averages, and the cessation of Russian gas flows via Ukraine has left the market vulnerable to further disruptions.

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures are trading at €45.6 per megawatt-hour, marking their lowest level in nearly three weeks. Forecasts of milder temperatures across Europe later this month are alleviating some of the pressure on gas markets, with conditions expected to be near or slightly above seasonal norms starting this weekend.
• Storage levels remain a concern, sitting just under 70%, significantly lower than the 83% recorded at this time last year. However, the supply situation is stable for now, supported by steady LNG imports and moderated demand due to warmer weather.
• Key developments include Norway’s Gassco announcing maintenance at its Kollsnes processing plant, expected to conclude by 11^th January . Earlier this month, gas prices surged to a 14-month high above €50/MWh due to the halt of Russian flows via Ukraine on New Year’s Day, following the expiration of a transit deal. While storage withdrawals have been a concern, the mild weather outlook and steady alternative supplies have tempered market fears.

Ammonia

• Higher natural gas prices in NW Europe, along with indications of firm nitrate fertiliser pricing for the European Spring season, are giving some support to NW Europe CFR prices, and spot prices here moved up $10/mt on Wednesday to $580/mt.
• Despite the firm underlying fundamentals in NW Europe, the anticipated start of exports from the new Gulf Coast Ammonia plant in the US, which will add 1.3 million mt of ammonia to the market, is leading some buyers to exercise caution when committing to purchases beyond mid-February.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• Yara has adjusted its pricing structure for ammonium nitrate products across several European markets as of 7^th January. The producer raised official sales prices for its YaraBela NITROMAG CAN 27% in Germany and the Benelux, as well as YaraBela EXTRAN 33.5% AN in France. CAN 27% is now offered at €335/t bulk CIF, an increase of €18/t from the last official price issued on 9 December. AN 33.5% is priced at €425/t bulk CPT, marking a sharp €38/t increase compared to its 16 October offer.
• These revised prices are effective immediately for February deliveries, with limited availability, according to a Yara statement.
• In the UK, CF Fertilisers raised its Nitram price by £5/t from pre-Christmas levels. While this increase aligns with the market’s trajectory, current offers remain significantly below replacement values. UK ammonium nitrate prices are anticipated to experience steady upward adjustments as the spring season approaches, exacerbated by dwindling importer stock levels.
• Notably, Yara remains withdrawn from the UK market for AN products. However, if European pricing trends are reflected in the UK, this could create room for importers to adjust their offers further upward.

Urea

• India is poised to issue a fresh urea import tender either later this week or early next week, following the 19^th December tender that fell significantly short of its 1.5 Mt target. December urea sales in India are projected at 5.1-5.2 Mt, driving a strong appetite for additional imports. India may face paying a premium above the lowest price (L1) from the previous tender—$369.75/t CFR for West Coast India—submitted by Keytrade. Notably, no tonnes were secured for East Coast India due to a $299/t CFR L1 submission, believed to have been an error.
• Globally, demand for urea remains robust. Turkey is actively chasing tonnes from North Africa, Brazil continues its buying spree, and the US is expected to return as a significant importer after a subdued H2 in 2024. Compounding the price movements are severe raw material cost increases in key producing regions. Iran, for instance, has effectively exited the export market, with record natural gas demand halting supplies to urea facilities. Only one producer is reported operational, running at just 30% capacity.
• In the UK, urea prices have risen by approximately £30/t since Christmas. While some domestic values still lag behind international levels, tightening supply is expected to align prices more closely with global sentiment. As the market becomes increasingly constrained, further adjustments are likely in the coming weeks.

Potash

• The bullish sentiment observed in recent weeks is expected to carry forward into 2025, with spot prices projected to see modest increases in the months ahead. Affordability remains a key driver, as demand is forecast to slightly outpace 2024 levels. Producers are maintaining firm offers heading into the new year, anticipating further price hikes after a year marked by generally subdued values.
• Key potash markets, including Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the US, have already begun to observe upward adjustments following the festive period. Brazil continues to lead demand growth, while Southeast Asia and the US are beginning to reflect stronger post-holiday buying interest. As market fundamentals tighten, the stage is set for sustained price support across global potash markets.
• In the UK and the rest of NW Europe limited liquidity has shaped the market in recent weeks, with seasonal demand remaining sluggish. However, January is expected to bring increased demand for the spring application season, providing potential domestic price support.

Phosphates

• Global granular phosphate prices have seen slight declines in recent weeks, but the price adjustments have been moderate due to persistently tight supply. Exports from Morocco, could surpass current expectations in early 2025. Producers have already achieved a significant increase in production and sales in 2024, with data suggesting Morocco’s granular phosphate exports may reach record highs.
• Whilst Moroccan production is likely to have a tonnage surplus, they are being cautious in their approach to the market likely in efforts to maintain price stability. Despite poor affordability relative to downstream agricultural products and other nutrients, scarce supply conditions are expected to keep granular phosphate prices relatively steady in the near term.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1945	1.2320	1.0315

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Jan 25	150 – 165	179 – 194	205 – 215	430 – 435

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept, and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.