Thursday 17 April 2025

Wheat

Following the latest USDA WASDE report, which printed mildly bearish wheat numbers, alongside bullish corn fundamentals and erratic macro influences — including tariffs, weather forecasts, and currency swings — the grain markets have remained as challenging as ever over the past week.

European wheat markets dropped to contract lows, pressured by a strong euro and sluggish export demand. Meanwhile, corn found support from strong U.S. demand, tightening global stocks, and a weakening U.S. dollar, though weather risks and geopolitical tensions added further volatility.

Key Factors

• Tariff volatility continues to provide the geopolitical backdrop to all markets, with ongoing focus on the constant exchanges between the US and China, and the ever-escalating tariff values. However, markets took some comfort from the easing of tariffs on certain tech items.
• Global weather remains a key market driver. Widespread rains are forecast across the US Southern Plains, improving winter wheat prospects but delaying corn planting in some areas. South American weather remains mostly favourable — Brazil is seeing good rainfall for its Safrinha second corn crop, while Argentina’s warm, dry conditions are aiding harvest progress. In Northern Europe, increasing dryness — particularly in Germany and Poland — is becoming a growing concern.
• Following a mixed USDA WASDE report, the market initially struggled to find clear direction. Lower-than-anticipated corn stocks and stronger exports were offset by larger-than-expected wheat stocks and steady exports, resulting in an overall balanced outlook for US grains. Soybeans came in largely in line with expectations, leading to minimal movement in that market.
• After some much-needed, though limited, rainfall across much of the UK last week, sentiment around new crop production has become more positive. However, northern and eastern parts of Europe continue to experience increasing dryness. While current crop conditions remain mostly good, the lack of significant rainfall in recent weeks has raised concerns about moisture availability for spring crops and winter grain development. If dry conditions persist, yield potential could come under stress heading into late spring.
• Both GBP and EUR remain firm, which continues to cap UK and European wheat prices to some extent. In contrast, the weaker USD is offering US growers opportunities to market their crops more competitively at aggressive levels.

Outlook

Grain markets remain vulnerable to macro-driven swings, with a strong euro capping EU gains and forecast US rainfall easing supply concerns. However, fund positioning, tight corn fundamentals, and dryness in Northern Europe present upside risks. With liquidity typically low over the Easter holiday, there’s potential for a sharp correction if demand strengthens or weather conditions deteriorate.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets, for another week, are close to non-existent. Crop conditions are improving, with welcome rains arriving, which pushes the market’s focus back onto the absence of demand.

Key Factors

• Rains across the UK this week have provided some welcome relief to spring crops.
• Demand continues to evade us, with little sign of a recovery in the short term.

Outlook

As is always the case at this time of year, watching weather maps is the main objective of the market. Today, crops are looking well and have benefitted from rains this week. It is likely that markets will drift as premiums remain healthy and demand slow.

Feed Barley

Another quiet week for the feed barley market. Farmer selling remains slow, and likewise demand is quiet. Export business has slowed down as French origin starts to outcompete UK barley into Ireland.

Key Factors

• The standoff between supply and demand continues. Feed barley prices are struggling to fall, even though demand is slow, as farmers release only small volumes onto the market for another week.
• With MATIF futures continuing to sell off, French barley is starting to outcompete UK pricing into Ireland, which remains the only export destination actively showing demand.
• New crop basis continues to feel pressure as sellers look to position themselves ahead of the harvest. EU Black Sea origin is much more competitive into export markets for Jul/Aug, which should undermine harvest levels.

Outlook

Feed barley prices may well continue to drift sideways on old crop and we expect low liquidity to remain the main theme. On paper, we have a comfortable surplus, which should come to the market before harvest. New crop levels will likely continue to feel pressure amid slow demand, particularly if farmers start to make sales, however, macro markets once again will be the main driver of flat price action.

Rapeseed

Prices have been less volatile this week, as further tariff announcements have done little to shift the momentum of a deteriorating China–US relationship. On Friday, China raised tariffs on US goods to 125%, stating that they would stop there as US products are already unmarketable in the country. The latest response came from President Trump, increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 245%, continuing to set these figures based on instinct rather than structured policy.

China has now appointed a new trade chief, who appears more open to negotiation with the US — but only if certain conditions are met. This has triggered further currency moves during the week, which will continue to ripple through agricultural commodity prices.

Key Factors

• Soybeans have been well supported this week, helped by the US dollar trading at its lowest since January 2022. In the US, heavy rains are expected over the next two weeks, which could delay plantings — though they will also provide a much-needed soil moisture boost. In South America, ANEC now forecasts Brazil’s April soybean exports at 14.5mmt, up from 13.5mmt last week. Meanwhile, Argentina has entered a new economic phase, allowing the Peso to pre-float and temporarily lowering export taxes until June to encourage farmer selling. However, concerns around a possible devaluation have slowed farmer selling to the lowest pace in 10 years.
• Crude oil prices started the week continuing their downward trend, but have since found support after China’s Q1 GDP growth came in at 5.4% year-on-year, beating expectations of 5.1%. Additionally, China’s oil refineries increased crude processing to 14.85 million barrels per day in March, up from 14.74 million in January/February. In its latest report, OPEC revised down its oil demand growth forecasts to +1.30 million barrels/day in 2025 and +1.28 million barrels/day in 2026, both 150,000 barrels/day lower than the March estimate.
• Canola has remained well supported as 2024/25 ending stocks continue to tighten, with both Canadian crush and export demand rising. Combined offtake has reached 15.20mmt so far this crop year, up from 11.62mmt a year ago. This strength has helped canola outpace spring wheat in a bid to secure more hectarage. Farmer selling has also picked up after the market hit the $15/bushel target, bringing fresh selling to the market. However, cash crush margins have suffered, limiting new buying interest.
• MATIF rapeseed has largely followed outside markets this week, with new crop prices once again finding support around €465. Depending on how US–China trade relations evolve, there’s potential for China to start importing Australian seed — a move that could significantly impact the EU supply and demand balance, given that the EU currently takes the majority of Australian seed. Additionally, the French Ministry of Agriculture released its 2025 rapeseed area estimate, projecting 1.289 million hectares, a 7.4% increase from the five-year average.
• In the UK, old crop pricing has been sporadic, driven by the large inverse in futures. Prices have rallied somewhat in line with the soon-to-expire May contract, as merchants compete to remain competitive while consumers show little interest in chasing the market. Currency strength has also supported UK prices, lifting them to the highest levels seen so far this season.

Summary

Looking ahead, key focus areas will be trade flows in and around China, which have the potential to disrupt the EU supply and demand balance and tighten the outlook for the new crop. It will also be important to watch where basis levels settle as cash prices begin trading over the August contract while we move into the latter part of the season. Additionally, there is potential for market moves in the soybean complex, depending on how the weather forecast develops — though it’s still very early in the planting campaign.

Pulses

It’s been a quiet week for pulses; however, the rainfall we’ve seen has come as a welcome relief. Winter-drilled crops are basking in the sunny weather, while the recent rainfall has helped spring-drilled crops come to life, aiding germination. With further showers forecast for the coming week, we can expect crops to continue making good progress.

Key Factors

• North Africa is now fully back in the market; however, the strong GBP is slowing down export competitiveness. Additionally, as we’re getting late in the season, interest is minimal, with the focus shifting towards cautiously eyeing up new crop positions.
• The recent light rainfall has come at a crucial stage, providing a boost to spring emergence, aided by the increase in moisture and warm temperatures. Winter-sown crops are looking healthy, and if anything, the recent dry weather may have encouraged the roots to grow deeper, improving root structure and supporting the crop later in the growing season. With more rain in the forecast, we should continue to see further growth.
• New crop bean premiums remain relatively firm—for now. With the recent good weather, sentiment around the new crop is steadily improving, with emerged crops looking stronger by the day. The underlying wheat price is slightly firmer, but the movement is minimal, and the flat remains relatively unchanged. As a result, it’s likely we will see new crop bean values gradually slide lower in the coming weeks, especially with imported feedstuffs continuing to provide strong competition in the feed sector.
• Peas are very quiet, with near-zero interest in old crop. There are still some gaps to fill between now and June for feed peas and yellows, should long holders want to clear their stores ahead of harvest. New crop plantings and emergence are off to a strong start, especially following the recent rainfall, and just in time for the start of consumer interest.

Outlook
Crops are starting to look healthier following recent rainfall, and with more in the forecast, this is a trend which is likely to continue. A strong domestic currency is limiting the UK for export competitiveness, however this could well be offset by a declining flat price as the market becomes more comfortable with the potential of the new crop. With the increased market volatility, growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields. PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support.

Seed

As spring cereal drillings come to an end, the focus now shifts to sowing grass leys, spring-sown SFIs, and game maize.

Key Factors

• We are pleased to offer a wide range of grass leys for both agricultural and amenity purposes, all readily available for delivery. Whether you need a short-term cutting mix or a long-term grazing pasture, we have some excellent mixes to choose from—ranging from hard-wearing to fine lawn mixtures.
• If you’re looking for spring top-ups, be sure to speak to your farm trader, as we have limited quantities of peas available on the floor.
• Looking ahead to autumn, we have an extensive portfolio of varieties available, including the newly approved Group 1 varieties: SY Cheer, Bamford, and LG Beowulf. Check out our autumn seed catalogue to see all the other varieties we have to offer.

Outlook

With the rain that most places in the UK have seen this week, winter and spring crops will continue to progress.  As we approach the end of April, it is without doubt attention will turn to Autumn drillings and rotations for the next farming year. Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Prices attempt modest rebound in Europe, while US futures hit two-month lows amid rising production and mild weather forecasts.

Key Factors

• European gas futures edged up to around €35/MWh, slightly recovering from last week’s seven-month low after the US temporarily exempted key Chinese tech imports from tariffs, easing recession concerns.
• Mild and windy conditions across Europe have increased gas storage injections, reducing immediate demand from power generation.
• European gas storage remains low at just over 35% capacity, prompting the EU to allow flexibility in its storage target, potentially lowering it by 10 percentage points.
• US gas futures fell below $3.3/MMBtu, pressured by record-high production levels reaching 107.4 bcfd over the weekend and persistently mild weather forecasts through late April.
• US LNG exports continue to hit record highs, averaging 16.3 bcfd in April, driven by increased flows from Venture Global’s new Plaquemines LNG facility.

Outlook

European markets remain cautiously optimistic following tariff exemptions, though structural supply concerns persist. In the US, sustained high production and mild weather forecasts will likely maintain downward pressure, despite strong export demand. Storage refill progress in Europe will be closely monitored in the coming weeks.

Ammonia

Prices remain under pressure into late April, with Asian producers nearing potential production curtailments; uncertainty lingers over US tariff impact.

Key Factors

• Continued price softness in Asia raises concerns over potential production cuts, as profitability thresholds approach.
• Uncertainty persists around the upside effect of the US 10% tariff on Trinidadian ammonia imports, particularly for the upcoming Tampa contract settlement.
• Limited demand pockets in NW Europe provide minor price support, though global oversupply continues to dominate market sentiment.

Outlook

The near-term outlook remains bearish, although production adjustments in Asia or tariff impacts in the US could offer some stabilization. Tampa settlement dynamics will be closely watched for market direction into May.

Nitrates

European nitrates markets soften as seasonal demand fades, while Brazilian activity firms ahead of sugarcane planting.

Key Factors

• European buying activity slows, causing nitrate prices to trend lower as the main application season winds down.
• Brazilian AN demand strengthens, providing some near-term support ahead of their sugarcane application season.
• UK nitrates prices remain elevated compared to global benchmarks, with ongoing supply tightness and cautious importer activity supporting current price levels.

Outlook

Price softening in Europe is likely to persist, although UK market tightness will keep domestic values supported until the end of the spring season. Increased Brazilian demand could offer some stability globally, but broader downward pressure remains likely.

Urea

Prices firm in US, while European market weakens amid slow buying; Indian demand still supportive but undersupplied.

Key Factors

• Southern Plains urea prices surged by $25/st this week to $490–505/st FOB—the highest level since March 2024, driven by robust regional demand, notably with corn acreage displacing cotton in Texas.
• European markets, particularly France, saw granular urea prices slide to €390-395/t FCA from €410/t FCA previously, as buyers remain cautious and adopt a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.
• IPL secured 884,650 t urea, short of its initial 1.5 Mt tender requirement, signalling India may need another significant tender shortly to cover remaining demand.

Outlook

Urea prices are likely to stabilise or firm in the short-term due to India’s persistent unmet requirements and strong US demand. However, weakening European interest could temper global benchmarks, particularly affecting North African exporters.

Potash

Prices strengthen on tight availability and bullish sentiment; Southeast Asian tender expected to set market tone.

Key Factors

• Limited product availability for May shipments supports strong global potash prices, with bullish sentiment prevailing in major markets.
• Southeast Asia’s focus is on Pupuk Indonesia’s tender for 175,000 t standard MOP, with initial offers between $360–400/t CFR for July-September shipment. The tender outcome will likely influence near-term market direction significantly.
• China continues releasing reserves to the market, having issued 1.1 Mt of MOP via tenders as of 15 April, potentially easing some supply constraints.

Outlook

Potash prices are likely to maintain their upward trajectory, driven by tight availability and strong buyer interest. The outcome of Southeast Asian tenders will provide critical guidance for pricing dynamics through Q2 and into Q3.

Phosphates

Prices surge to new highs amid severe supply constraints; India and Brazil drive latest spike.

Key Factors

• Spot DAP/MAP prices have jumped significantly, with sales reaching $700/t CFR for both India and Brazil, the highest level since January 2023.
• India’s NFL reissued its tender for 100,000 t DAP after receiving no offers in its initial tender, highlighting extreme supply tightness and urgent demand.
• Strong buyer interest continues, particularly in India where limited availability has buyers scrambling for cargoes, further exacerbating price pressures.

Outlook

Phosphate prices are expected to continue rising in the near term, driven by critically low supply and robust demand, especially in India and Brazil. Buyers will likely face ongoing difficulties sourcing material, reinforcing the market’s bullish trajectory.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1615	1.3238	1.1397

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Apr25	155-160	160-175	210-220	460-465

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.