Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets remained volatile but broadly rangebound, driven by shifting sentiment around US and China trade negotiations, deteriorating US wheat conditions and improving crop prospects across Europe and the Black Sea. Weather, geopolitics and speculative positioning continued to dominate price direction, while physical cash markets remained notably illiquid across both old and new crop positions.

Key Factors:

• Chicago wheat futures swung sharply through the week as speculative selling linked to soybeans and uncertain Chinese demand gave way to renewed optimism over potential US agricultural export agreements. Kansas wheat remained supported by poor crop tour results and worsening drought conditions.
• European wheat markets tracked global volatility but remained capped by favourable crop development across France, Germany and the wider Black Sea region. MATIF futures repeatedly failed near technical resistance, while London wheat lagged broader upside moves amid limited liquidity and improving UK crop conditions.
• US and China trade rhetoric continued to drive sentiment, with reports suggesting China could significantly increase purchases of US agricultural goods. Markets remain cautious, however, awaiting concrete agreements and confirmation of commodity-specific buying commitments.
• Weather remained broadly favourable for corn and soybean development globally, with widespread US rainfall easing drought concerns outside the southern Plains. South American production estimates for both corn and wheat continued to rise, reinforcing expectations for ample global supply.
• UK cash wheat markets remained highly fragmented, with old crop premiums still discouraging trade. Imports continue to cap nearby upside potential, while stronger carry structures into 2027 have generated modest new crop selling interest despite persistently thin market participation.
  
  

Outlook
Markets appear increasingly balanced between tightening US wheat fundamentals and improving global supply prospects elsewhere. Attention will remain firmly on confirmation of Chinese purchasing activity, Northern Hemisphere weather and technical price behaviour near key resistance levels. Volatility is likely to persist, although improving crop conditions across Europe and the Black Sea may continue to limit sustained upside potential.

Malting Barley

The favourable weather across the UK and Europe has continued this week with further rains, although some regional dry areas remain, leaving values bearish and continued reduced demand.

Key Factors:

• Rain across both the UK & EU in the past week have added some confidence to production as dryness concerns are lessened, although some areas of the UK missed vital moisture.
• In areas where dryness has persisted there are some reports of early ear emergence on spring barley, this could add pressure to the market along with a smaller spring barley acreage.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, UK prices are being support by a lack of farmer selling and the reduced barley area along with dryness in some key malting barley regions. The outlook for malting barley remains uncertain, with continued poor demand we see little reason for prices to be support but if we see production issues then we could see good reason for prices to rise.

Feed Barley

Old crop prices are steady, recent rains have helped crops although we see drought damage to spring barley, and new crop trading remains quiet as a result with low confidence across the market.

Key Factors:

• Old crop prices remain rangebound. We have seen a small amount of trade to Ireland which has tidied up some loose ends. Meanwhile some selling pressure has come to the North as the season draws to a close and merchants look to sell out of their remaining stocks, particularly given the well-advanced winter crop and earlier than average harvest expectation.
• Recent rains have brought relief to the developing crops, with winters varieties overall looking well. Spring barleys have benefitted from rains but in some regions the damage from drought has already been done, we are expecting a yield deficit as a result.
• New crop trade is thin, and farmer selling is slow due to low confidence, meanwhile consumer activity is also limited. Liquidity is low as a result and bid-offer spreads are wide.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop prices are likely to remain rangebound through to the end of the season. New crop values will continue to follow wheat prices until we see greater liquidity on physical trade.

Rapeseed

Ag markets traded with heightened volatility again this week, driven by ongoing shifts to macro sentiment, mixed geopolitical headlines and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand for US agricultural products. Soybeans struggled to hold momentum despite renewed talk of Chinese purchases and tariff reductions, while energy markets remained highly reactive to developments around Iran. Canadian canola maintained a weather premium amid delayed Prairie planting, although improving forecasts capped gains late week. MATIF rapeseed continued to probe higher levels technically, but momentum indicators are beginning to show signs of fatigue at recent highs.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans experienced a volatile but ultimately softer week, with speculative money flow dominating price action. Initial pressure followed the US/China summit, where markets were disappointed by the lack of concrete details surrounding future Chinese agricultural purchases. However, futures rebounded sharply after headlines suggested China could purchase around $17 billion of US agricultural goods over the next three years, alongside discussions of lowering bilateral tariffs. Despite this, favourable US planting weather and expectations for record Brazilian carryout stocks limited upside potential. Technically, the market continues to struggle to establish a sustained breakout, with rallies attracting selling pressure amid uncertainty over export demand.
• Crude oil remained exceptionally headline-driven, trading in wide intraday ranges throughout the week. Early support came from concerns surrounding Middle East tensions and uncertainty over negotiations involving Iran, alongside reports of infrastructure threats in the Gulf region. However, late-week pressure emerged after comments suggesting negotiations were progressing towards a potential agreement, triggering heavy speculative liquidation, though we have seen this before so the trade is cautious. Despite the sharp correction, volatility remains elevated and energy markets continue to underpin broader vegetable oil values. Traders remain highly sensitive to geopolitical rhetoric, with sentiment shifting rapidly between risk premium buying and profit-taking.
• Canola posted strong gains overall, supported primarily by ongoing concerns surrounding Prairie planting delays. Persistent wet conditions across key growing regions initially slowed fieldwork significantly, helping the market gap higher early in the week. Strong domestic crush margins also continued to provide underlying support. Technically, the market respected its upward trend channel despite briefly testing support levels, while the CAD $770 area continues to act as major overhead resistance. Late in the week, forecasts turned warmer and drier across Saskatchewan, prompting some profit-taking as traders anticipated improved planting progress in upcoming reports.
• MATIF rapeseed maintained a constructive tone, supported by strength in canola, currency movement and broader vegetable oil values. Futures continued trading within a narrowing consolidation pattern before briefly breaking to fresh highs during the week. However, the market repeatedly struggled to secure convincing higher closes, suggesting a degree of buyer exhaustion at elevated levels. Technical indicators are beginning to flash caution signals, with RSI divergence emerging as momentum fails to confirm new highs. The August contract continues to hold within an important technical range, with support near €505 and resistance around €530 remaining key markers for directional trade.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to macro headlines, particularly surrounding Chinese demand discussions and developments within energy markets. Weather will continue to dominate canola and soybean trade, with Prairie planting progress and US crop conditions closely monitored. MATIF rapeseed may require fresh fundamental support to sustain a breakout above recent highs, especially as technical momentum begins to fade. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, with speculative positioning continuing to exaggerate short-term market swings across the oilseed complex.

Oats

The UK Oat market remain subdued; this week we have seen limited activity from both buyers and sellers as we head into the final stages of the season. Support from firm feed barley values is still underpinning the feed base for oats, although this demand has yet to translate into meaningful market participation. Weather remains the dominant market driver, whilst we have seen some needed rain this week, conditions across much of the UK still places question marks around crop development and yield potential. Until there is clearer direction on production prospects, the market is likely to remain cautious and rangebound.

Key Factors:

• Limited buyer interest continues to be balanced by a lack of grower selling, leaving the market thinly traded and largely illiquid.
• Persistent dry weather across large areas of the UK is sustaining concerns around crop condition and yield potential, although Spain continues to benefit from more favourable moisture levels.
• Strong feed barley prices are continuing to provide underlying support to oat values, but increased feed demand has yet to emerge in volume.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old-crop levels are firming slightly as some nearby supply tightness emerges but we are seeing limited buying activity. Looking ahead, sentiment remains cautiously supportive, the combination of elevated feed grain markets and uncertainty surrounding production prospects. Longer term, without a meaningful improvement in oat pricing, growers may increasingly consider switching acreage into alternative crops offering stronger returns.

Pulses

Recent rainfall has continued to support pulse crops, which generally remain in good condition and appear to have endured the dry spell better than many cereal crops. New crop sentiment remains broadly constructive, with further showers forecast in the near term. Bean values continue to take direction from London Feed Wheat futures as underlying sentiment remains difficult to establish. Old crop trade remains subdued, with the market gradually working through the remaining pockets of demand ahead of harvest.

Key Factors:

• Bean markets have remained largely rangebound over the past week, with trading activity still notably limited and only occasional parcels changing hands. Tight nearby liquidity continues to offer some support to prices, although the firmer tone still feels more reflective of low engagement than any true shortage of available tonnage, as supplies continue to filter steadily into the market. Old crop beans remain priced at a premium to imported feed alternatives, a relationship that is also evident in new crop positions. Poultry demand continues to provide the strongest area of support, with inclusion levels still outperforming those seen across the wider livestock sector.
• Attention is now firmly centred on the new crop outlook, where sentiment across much of the UK remains generally favourable. Both winter and spring beans are reported to be developing well, having so far tolerated the prolonged dry conditions relatively effectively. While some cereal crops in southern regions have already come under greater moisture stress, beans continue to demonstrate comparatively strong resilience. Recent rainfall, combined with additional precipitation currently forecast, is expected to help maintain crop potential through the critical weeks ahead.
• Globally, pea markets continue to hold broadly steady, with little meaningful shift in pricing over the past week. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US and Iran situation, alongside anti-dumping measures, continues to weigh on broader trade sentiment and keep buyers cautious. Most demand remains focused on prompt or nearby shipment positions rather than longer-term coverage. As attention gradually shifts towards harvest progression, market direction is expected to remain closely linked to crop developments and logistical considerations.
• Within the domestic market, trading conditions remain relatively quiet. Many consumers appear comfortably covered through the nearby period, limiting appetite for additional purchases ahead of new crop availability. Planting is now effectively complete across the UK, and while recent rainfall has improved conditions, further moisture will still be required to sustain crop development into the summer months. Weather is expected to remain the primary driver of sentiment in the weeks ahead.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets are expected to remain heavily weather-driven in the near term, with recent rainfall and supportive forecasts continuing to underpin broadly positive new crop prospects. Beans are still showing greater resilience than cereals in many areas, while thin old crop trade and steady poultry demand continue to provide underlying support. Market direction will likely remain tied to moisture levels, crop development and wider sentiment across feed grain markets.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

This coming season brings a wave of opportunities across OSR and winter cereals, with strong market drivers and exciting new varieties shaping decisions.

Key Factors:

• Winter OSR: OSR continues to deliver one of the strongest gross margins on farm, making it a key crop to consider in rotations this autumn. Alongside its financial performance, OSR provides valuable agronomic benefits, reducing grassweed pressure, breaking cereal disease cycles and improving soil structure. Success starts with choosing the right variety. Our ADM portfolio is carefully selected for yield, oil content, disease resistance and strong agronomic traits. Explore our top picks in the ADM Seed Catalogue.
•  OSR Establishment Scheme: To support growers and reduce early‑season risk, ADM offers an internal Establishment Scheme across a selection of our highest‑performing varieties. This helps to manage risk and achieve the highest possible output.

• Winter Wheat: Several exciting new varieties are entering the market this year. Sparkler brings the joint‑highest Septoria tritici resistance rating within the Group 4 feeds. LG Defiance offers a yellow rust rating of 8 with consistently strong yields across regions. KWS Fowlmere stands out for its exceptionally early maturity, helping growers spread and manage harvest workload more effectively.
• Small Seeds: Demand for small seeds is building as growers plan for spring and summer drilling. Whether it’s grass leys, environmental mixtures, game cover or something else, get in touch with your ADM Farm Trader to secure your standard/ bespoke mix.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, the outlook remains positive, with strong varietal performance and stable demand in the market. Timely decision‑making and early engagement will be key to securing the best options and maximising opportunities this season.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Global ammonia markets remain structurally tight, with India’s failed IPL tender reinforcing the lack of available prompt supply at workable price levels. 

Key Factors: 

• Attention remained firmly on India this week following IPL’s tender for 521,000 tonnes of ammonia, which was widely expected to provide a key indication of global supply availability and realistic clearing prices. 
• The tender ultimately failed after IPL scrapped the process when counterparties rejected its counter bid levels.
•  Initial market talk suggested only five offers were received, totalling just 239,000 tonnes against the requested 521,000 tonnes, underlining the severe lack of prompt supply availability. 
• The lowest offer came from Agrifields at $890/t CFR east coast India for 15,000 tonnes, while the highest indication reportedly reached $1,030/t CFR. 

• Prevailing market indications prior to the tender had broadly been in the $800-850/t CFR range, though the failure of the tender now suggests sellers are unwilling to transact at those levels for meaningful volume. 
• East of Suez markets remain particularly constrained following ongoing outages, turnarounds and reduced Middle East supply flexibility. 
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets remain firmly supported with a strong upward bias. India’s failed IPL tender has reinforced the structural tightness across East of Suez markets and demonstrated that meaningful volumes are currently unavailable at lower price ideas. Unless supply availability improves materially, benchmarks are likely to remain elevated with further upside risk still present. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrate markets are beginning to establish clearer new season direction, while sulphates remain supported by tight supply and elevated production costs. 

Key Factors: 

• New season CAN offers from Yara are now being absorbed by the market, helping provide buyers with clearer pricing direction after several weeks of muted activity and uncertainty. 
• The acceptance of these offers suggests buyers are gradually re engaging once firmer producer positioning becomes visible. 
• European nitrate markets overall remain relatively subdued from a demand perspective, though clearer producer pricing is beginning to establish a more defined floor for the new season. 
• Market participants continue monitoring whether other major producers follow with revised CAN and UAN offers in the coming weeks. 
• In sulphates, CPL grade ammonium sulphate markets remain uncertain in China, with mixed sentiment around export demand and domestic positioning. 
• European ammonium sulphate prices continue to firm, supported by tight availability and persistently high raw material and production costs. 
• Elevated sulphur and energy costs continue to underpin replacement values across the sulphates complex despite generally cautious downstream demand. 
  
  

Outlook 
Nitrates are expected to remain broadly stable as the market transitions into clearer new season pricing. Sulphates remain firmer, particularly in Europe, where tight availability and elevated input costs continue supporting prices despite uneven global demand conditions. 

Urea

Global urea markets are entering a quieter phase, with attention now shifting back toward India for the next major source of demand support. 

Key Factors: 

• Global urea demand slowed through early May, leading to softer sentiment and reducing immediate upward price momentum across most export markets. 
• With major buying programmes temporarily complete, the market is now increasingly focused on India as the next key demand driver. 
• Market participants expect a fresh Indian tender enquiry to be announced within the next two weeks, which is likely to provide the next major directional catalyst for pricing. 

• Until then, buyers across most regions are remaining cautious, limiting spot liquidity and reducing urgency around procurement. 
• Despite softer demand conditions, the market remains structurally tight beneath the surface due to ongoing logistical disruption and constrained prompt availability. 
• Supply flexibility remains limited in several key origins, meaning any significant resurgence in demand could quickly tighten balances again. 
• Australia and other seasonal import regions continue to monitor the market closely, though current activity remains measured. 
  
  

Outlook
Urea prices are expected to remain stable to slightly softer in the immediate term as the market waits for fresh Indian demand to emerge. However, underlying supply fundamentals remain relatively tight, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed upward pressure once buying activity accelerates again. 

Phosphates

Global phosphate markets remain firmly bullish as extreme supply tightness continues to outweigh slowing demand momentum. 

Key Factors: 

• India’s IPL tender for 1.347 Mt of DAP at $930-935/t CFR was the dominant driver this week, pushing global phosphate benchmarks to their highest levels since July 2022. 
• While Indian buying activity may pause temporarily following the tender, the broader market tone remains strongly bullish due to exceptionally tight global availability. 
• China’s continued phosphate export halt remains one of the most significant supportive factors, removing a major source of global supply from the market. 
• Elevated sulphur and ammonia costs are continuing to squeeze producer margins and increase replacement values across the phosphate complex. 
• Production cuts and tighter operating rates from major producers including The Mosaic Company and OCP Group are further restricting available tonnes. 
• Saudi phosphate exports also remain constrained due to ongoing disruption around the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, limiting the flow of prompt cargoes into global markets. 
• Combined, these factors continue to create a structurally short market despite affordability concerns and softer spot demand in some importing regions. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate markets are expected to remain firmly supported in the near term. Even if Indian demand slows temporarily following the latest IPL tender, the underlying supply picture remains exceptionally tight. Chinese export restrictions, elevated feedstock costs and constrained producer output continue to underpin a strong upward pricing environment globally. 

Potash

Potash markets remain firm following India’s higher contract settlement, with suppliers maintaining a bullish outlook into Q3. 

Key Factors: 

• India has settled its 2026 potash contract with Belarusian Potash Company at $383/t CFR, representing a $34/t increase versus the 2025 contract. 
• The higher settlement reinforces the broader strength in global potash pricing and provides a firmer benchmark for other regional markets. 
• Despite relatively stable spot pricing last week, supplier sentiment remains bullish, with expectations for continued strength through at least August. 
• Demand continues to improve across key import regions, particularly Brazil, China and Southeast Asia. 
• Brazil remains a major driver of global MOP demand as importers continue replenishing stocks and securing tonnes ahead of seasonal requirements. 
• In Southeast Asia, stronger agricultural economics and ongoing demand from palm oil markets continue supporting consumption. 
• Compared with nitrogen and phosphates, potash continues to benefit from relatively stronger affordability, supporting ongoing purchasing activity. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets are expected to remain firm in the near-term following India’s higher contract settlement. Robust demand across Brazil, China and Southeast Asia continues to support supplier confidence, with the broader market expected to maintain a stable to firmer tone through Q3.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.156	1.340	1.158

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May26	154-163	182-190	210-220	480-490