Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Markets were broadly rangebound through the week as traders balanced improving global production prospects against weather risks and shifting geopolitical developments. USDA figures reinforced a generally comfortable supply outlook, particularly for corn, while wheat found intermittent support from quality concerns, tightening exporter stocks-to-use ratios and speculative short covering. Farmer selling remained limited across Europe despite lower futures values.

Key Factors:

• The June WASDE report was broadly neutral to bearish, with the USDA’s latest update suggesting ample global grain supplies. Global wheat production was raised modestly, while corn output and ending stocks increased more significantly, reinforcing the bearish corn narrative and limiting upside across the wider grain complex.
• Speculative funds continued aggressive selling, with record liquidation across agricultural markets intensifying downward pressure. Wheat funds increased short positions, while corn moved into a net short position, contributing to recent contract lows and weak market sentiment.
• However, overall, the weather remains the primary market driver, with favourable conditions across much of the Northern Hemisphere generally support production prospects, although excessive rainfall in parts of the US is raising concerns over wheat quality and harvest delays. Western Europe has turned hotter and drier, increasing scrutiny of crop development.
• Black Sea and Eastern European crops remain competitive, with reported strong production prospects across Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria continue to underpin global wheat availability. Record Romanian crop estimates and improving Russian yield forecasts offset concerns elsewhere and maintain pressure on export values.
• With Geopolitical developments lending a more positive sentiment towards general calm, wider commodity markets have eased slightly. Progress towards a US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weighed heavily on crude oil markets, reducing freight and energy costs. Lower logistics costs are expected to improve the competitiveness of grain exports and support international trade flows.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now shifts to harvest progress across the Northern Hemisphere and whether adverse weather can materially affect yields or quality. Wheat markets may find support from persistent fund shorts and quality concerns, but abundant global supplies, & improving crop prospects suggest rallies are likely to encounter resistance as undersold farmers begin to engage if we don’t see a significant weather-driven threat.

Malting Barley

European malting barley markets continued to trend lower last week, with multiple trades concluded at softer levels. The absence of any significant production concerns across Scandinavia, Germany and France has weighed on sentiment, reinforcing an already oversupplied balance sheet and a lack of direct demand from maltsters and brewers. Farmer selling remains largely absent, which is offering some underlying support and helping to limit the downside.

Key Factors:

• Favourable weather conditions across key exporting regions, including Denmark, Germany, France and the UK, have increased confidence in production prospects and encouraged selling pressure.
• At the same time, the continued lack of buying interest from the brewing and distilling sectors is keeping pressure on the EU balance sheet, which is currently forecast to hold a surplus of 1.4–1.5 MMT of malting barley.
• Feed barley values have also declined amid a lack of fresh bullish drivers and a broadly comfortable global grains balance sheet.
• Limited farmer engagement across Europe is helping to restrict further price declines in malting barley; however, weakening feed markets are inevitably dragging malting values lower, with current premiums becoming increasingly difficult to justify.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, European malting barley prices are expected to track the broader bearish tone across grain markets, given the anticipated large carryout. Looking ahead, the UK outlook remains uncertain. If a genuine production issue emerges, current pricing levels may be justified to maintain domestic supply and limit export competitiveness. However, if production proves sufficient, values will likely need to fall by approximately £10/mt to remain competitive in export markets. For now, the situation remains finely balanced.

Feed Barley

The old crop marketing season is effectively complete, with farmers largely sold out and consumers well covered ahead of harvest. Domestic prices remain defensive amid low liquidity, while absent export demand could lead to harvest pressure if significant farm movement is needed in July and August.

Key Factors:

• The old crop marketing campaign is about complete as the new harvest season is now only weeks away, and on the whole consumers are covered and farmers are sold up.
• Export markets do not exist for old crop today, as continental buyers eye up an inverse heading into harvest and will wait for combines to roll to buy some cheaper material.
• The UK domestic market is priced defensively, and for another week liquidity is low, and the market is trying to ration demand. The interesting dynamic will be whether there is much requirement for fast as available movement from farm, as the normal facilitator of this is the export market, which today is comfortably £10 from calculating. If significant volumes are required to move Jul/Aug, then we should see some harvest pressure.
  
  

Outlook
Unless we see significant delays to harvest, it is likely that old crop levels will erode down towards new crop pricing. Deferred positions will continue to track the wheat market until physical liquidity picks up.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets experienced another volatile week, price direction largely dictated by developments in energy markets and shifting expectations surrounding global demand. Hopes surrounding a potential US and Iran peace agreement weighed heavily on crude oil prices early in the week before values stabilised around $75/barrel, but this dragged veg oils lower. Meanwhile, favourable weather across North America continues to support crop prospects, although speculation over renewed Chinese buying and concerns over disappointing Chinese rapeseed yields provided intermittent support to soybeans and rapeseed prices. Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed both struggled to find sustained momentum as speculative funds continued to reduce long positions ahead of Northern Hemisphere harvest.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans traded in relatively narrow ranges throughout the week, with favourable US weather reinforcing expectations for another strong crop. Planting progress is now virtually complete, reported at 95%, crop ratings improving 1% to 66% good/excellent. South American supplies remain ample, with Argentina’s crop estimate increased to 50 million tonnes while Brazil remains at 180 million tonnes. Rumours of renewed Chinese buying provided periods of support, helped by US soybean offers becoming slightly cheaper than Brazilian supplies. However, despite a USDA announcement of a 372,000mt sale to an unknown destination, the market viewed demand as insufficient to offset the impact of improving crop prospects and continued fund liquidation. Soy oil prices came under further pressure, falling to seven-week lows as managed money reduced long positions across the complex.
• Energy markets remained the dominant external influence this week. Expectations of a US and Iran agreement and the prospect of increased crude oil supplies triggered a sharp fall in oil prices before values stabilised ahead of Wednesday’s signing. Crude (WTI) has found support around $75/barrel. Lower energy prices have weighed on the wider vegetable oil complex, although NOPA crush data showing a third consecutive decline in US soy oil stocks provided some underlying support. The interaction between energy markets and biofuel demand continues to be a major driver for oilseed prices.
• Canadian canola endured a difficult week as speculative funds continued liquidating long positions, resulting in a series of sharp daily losses. Despite the weakness, lower prices are beginning to improve the competitiveness of Canadian supplies, particularly into China where crush margins have become increasingly attractive. Excessive rainfall across key rapeseed-producing regions in China has reportedly reduced domestic yields, raising the possibility of increased import demand later in the season. Weather conditions across Canadian growing regions remain generally favourable, limiting concerns over production potential and keeping the focus on demand developments.
• MATIF rapeseed spent much of the week tracking weakness in energy and vegetable oils, with prices experiencing wide intraday swings before finishing relatively unchanged overall. Harvest is now approaching across Europe, with some UK crops expected to be harvested from early July. Dry conditions across France are aiding harvest progress but prolonged moisture deficits, with many regions receiving only around half their normal rainfall since March, are likely to limit yield potential and reduce the likelihood of exceptional crops. COCERAL increased its EU+UK rapeseed crop estimate to 21.5 million tonnes, although the market continues to focus more on harvest results than production forecasts.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now turns to Friday’s proposed U.S.–Iran agreement and the potential implications for energy markets. The possibility of renewed Chinese demand remains a key theme, both for U.S. soybeans and Canadian canola, particularly if disappointing Chinese rapeseed yields translate into additional import requirements. Northern Hemisphere harvest activity will increase over the coming weeks, bringing yield reports and logistics into sharper focus. While managed money continues to reduce long exposure across vegetable oils, volatility is likely to remain elevated as geopolitical developments, energy prices and early harvest results compete to determine direction heading into the new crop season.

Oats

Oat markets have remained relatively quiet over the past week, with buyers waiting for clearer demand signals before engaging, while sellers continue to wait for increased farmer participation. Although reduced production in parts of the EU could provide support to milling markets if supply issues arise in key regions, current crop conditions are broadly stable. Weaker feed barley markets have exerted downward pressure on feed oat values; however, with limited urgency from either side, bid-offer spreads remain wide and trade is subdued.

Key Factors:

• Strong demand has tightened the UK 2025 balance sheet, which is likely to support old crop prices as harvest approaches.
• Dry conditions across the UK from March through to the end of May have impacted yield potential, and despite recent rainfall, uncertainty remains around the development of any secondary tillers.
• More broadly, the absence of fresh bullish news continues to weigh on grain markets, although milling oats remain driven by their own supply and demand dynamics.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices could remain supported if demand persists and millers look to secure cover ahead of what is currently seen as a less promising new crop. In the medium term, market direction will depend on global production and demand developments. The UK remains competitively priced and could become an active exporter, should demand materialise. Longer term, planting intentions for the 2027 crop will be key. Without sufficient price incentives, growers may look to alternative crops offering more reliable returns. Another season of sub-cost production values would likely accelerate this shift.

Pulses

All attention is towards the weather and what this means for the approaching New Crop market. Old Crop Pea and Bean markets are both winding down with slowing interest as buyer’s close out their open positions. Weather conditions have been broadly supportive towards pulse crop developments; however, we could do with further rainfall to keep things moving in the right direction.

Key Factors:

• New crop bean interest has been variable, although overall is still steady, with the focus coming from the poultry sector. The recent rainfall continues to be supportive towards crop development, however there is still an element of caution towards the prospects, with growers wanting to be closer to harvest before making any strong marketing decisions one way or the other. As in previous weeks, beans continue to take direction from movements in London Feed Wheat futures.
• Old crop Bean sentiment continues to wane, with little interest to support the recent pop in prices that the market has seen. Growers holding remaining old crop stocks may wish to consider taking advantage of current market strength while these firmer values remain available.
• The old-crop pea market has effectively drawn to a close, with only a small number of positions left to be covered ahead of the transition into new crop. Buying interest remains subdued for now. Recent rainfall has been welcome across most growing regions, supporting crop development and improving prospects where moisture had previously been limiting. Nevertheless, crops that struggled to establish earlier in the season are unlikely to fully recover and may still fall short of yield potential. In contrast, later-sown crops with good establishment and adequate moisture continue to show encouraging promise.
• Attention is now turning towards crop management as the season progresses. Growers should remain alert to pest pressures, particularly from pea moth and bruchid beetle, and continue monitoring crops closely during this critical period. Fields that experienced significant beetle activity during flowering may warrant particular attention. Up-to-date guidance and management recommendations are available through the PGRO website.
  
  

Outlook
For the weeks ahead, market focus will remain firmly on weather conditions as new-crop prospects develop. Recent rainfall has supported crop growth, but further moisture will be needed to maintain yield potential. New-crop bean demand remains steady, led by the poultry sector, while grower selling is likely to stay cautious until harvest draws nearer. Meanwhile, attention will increasingly turn to crop protection, with close monitoring of pest pressures remaining essential.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As growers begin planning autumn rotations, focus is turning to seed requirements. With limited availability of some new key varieties, early ordering will be essential to secure the new options.

Key Factors:

• Trials Days – Throughout June and July, ADM will be hosting a range of Trials Days across England in collaboration with leading plant breeders. These events offer a valuable opportunity to compare established Recommended List varieties alongside promising new candidates for future seasons.

Key dates:

24 June – DSV, Flawborough

2 July – Limagrain, Rothwell

7 July – KWS, Yorkshire

These events provide a practical insight into local variety performance, as well as the chance to discuss disease pressures, emerging genetics and market opportunities with both breeders and ADM specialists. Contact us to reserve a place.

• Winter OSR – OSR remains one of the most profitable crops in the rotation, continuing to deliver strong gross margins across many farms this autumn. Alongside its financial benefits, it plays an important agronomic role, helping to reduce grassweed burdens, break cereal disease cycles and improve overall soil condition.

Choosing the right variety is key to success. The ADM portfolio focuses on high output, strong oil content, dependable agronomic performance and robust disease resistance.

Featured varieties include:

Karat – Joint highest gross output in the East/West region, supported by a strong disease profile including Rlm12.

Daymon – A new candidate combining high oil content, excellent vigour and strong stem canker resistance (RlmS + Rlm7).

LG Atom – A new Limagrain hybrid offering pod shatter resistance, TuYV protection and resilience to CSFB.

LG Academic – A reliable on-farm performer with excellent standing power and LG’s stem health tag.

For full details, see the ADM Seed Catalogue.

• OSR Establishment Scheme – To help reduce early-season risk, ADM Agriculture offers an internal Establishment Scheme on selected high-performing hybrids. This provides added reassurance and supports a strong start in the field.
• Winter Wheat – This season sees several exciting new winter wheat varieties entering the market:

LG Defiance – Combines strong yield potential with a solid disease resistance package, including good yellow rust resistance plus specific weight.

Sparkler – Offers the joint-highest Septoria tritici rating among Group 4 feeds and stands as the highest-yielding Group 4 soft on the Recommended List.

KWS Aintree – A new Group 4 hard feed delivering consistently high yields across regions and seasons.

• Small Seeds

Interest in small seeds continues to grow as growers plan for summer drilling. Whether for grass leys, environmental schemes, game cover or tailored mixtures, your ADM Farm Trader can provide guidance and secure the right mixtures to suit your system.

Outlook
As growers attend Trials Days and assess varieties under local conditions, plans for autumn cropping will become clearer. Variety choice remains one of the most critical factors in achieving a successful crop, and engaging early will help ensure access to the best genetics for the 2026 drilling season.

Fertiliser

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1546	1.3290	1.1503

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June26	154-163	179-191	217-227	420-430