Market Reports

Wheat

Global grain markets remain driven by geopolitics, energy volatility and weather risk, with wheat leading gains on US Plains drought while corn is capped by ample supply expectations and soybeans remain internally divergent. Despite resilient macro conditions, rising oil prices and supply uncertainty are reintroducing inflationary pressure across agricultural commodities.

Key Factors:

• Wheat markets have been the clear outperformer, supported by worsening US Plains drought, declining crop ratings and tightening production expectations. Kansas City futures led gains, though volatility persists as weather forecasts shift and speculative positioning adjusts.
• Corn markets remain fundamentally capped despite solid export demand and ethanol output. Improved US planting progress and rising South American production, particularly in Argentina, continue to weigh on forward price potential and reinforce global supply competition.
• Soybean markets show divergence, with bean oil supported by strong energy prices and tight stocks, while meal faces pressure despite heavy fund buying. Export uncertainty, particularly around China, continues to limit broader upside momentum.
• Geopolitical tensions, primarily around the Strait of Hormuz, have driven sharp swings in energy markets, feeding directly into agricultural price direction. Oil strength has underpinned biofuel-linked commodities while reinforcing broader inflation expectations.
• European and UK grain markets are largely following US price action, with limited domestic bullish drivers. Stable crop conditions, subdued export demand and strong Black Sea competition are capping upside despite currency fluctuations and global wheat strength.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain highly reactive to weather developments and geopolitical shifts. Sustained US drought could extend wheat’s bullish momentum, though demand rationing and corn competition may limit gains. Broader direction will hinge on energy markets, fund positioning and whether supply risks intensify into the Northern Hemisphere growing season.

Malting Barley

We have seen some engagement in the FOB market this week with cargos traded in the Oct/March position, yet we see no interest in the domestic market.  Farmers remain absent from the market for another week. 

Key Factors:

• Following ideal planting conditions in the UK and with barley for England complete and Scotland not far behind, all eyes are turning to the weather and lack of rainfall, with no significant rain in the forecast for the next two weeks the possible impacts of this will need to be closely monitored.
• With ample old crop supplies and high stocks, we see no demand from maltsters until at least January 2027.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop malting markets remain difficult to find resulting in balances moving on as feed barley at good values.  Further malting barley interest for old crop may appear in April/June to cover small top up tonnages but we expect these will be limited. For new crop, there is still a long way to go through the growing season, and a keen eye should be kept on the weather and any impact the dry conditions in the forecast may have on the developing crop.  Any crop issues that may arise could stimulate the market.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are steady but sluggish, with weak trade activity and dry conditions raising some concern over upcoming crop production.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets are flat week on week as supply and demand remain equally slow, which is keeping things balanced.
• Export markets are tricky to connect once again. We still see potential interest from Ireland, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands which may yet provide some opportunity for the UK. But for now, bids and offers are a few Euros apart, and we have seen some cheaper Danish origin undercutting UK replacement.
• Dry conditions have led to a good planting programme over recent weeks and England is complete, with the last acres going in in Scotland. Dryness concerns persist, which is a flag for production on already thin acreage. Market liquidity on new crop is slow as a result.
  
  

Outlook
We do not see much downside to old crop prices with dwindling stocks. New crop looks once again like more of a macro story from a flat price perspective. Expected downside to the barley-wheat spread is limited until farmer selling improves, but dry conditions will likely be the limiting factor.

Rapeseed

Ag markets have traded another choppy, headline-driven week, with energy volatility once again dictating direction across the oilseed complex. We continue to see changing headlines which are providing an additional edge, though we are seeing fundamental agricultural stories leak back into the picture. Despite early pressure, markets found intermittent support from firm crude and solid demand signals. Technically, several markets are now at key inflection points, with range-bound trade giving way to potential breakouts or reversals depending on outside market follow-through.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans futures remain broadly rangebound still, continuing to respect the sideways channel established over the past month. We did briefly test higher levels midweek, supported by strength in soyoil and energy, before coming back on a positive planting outlook in the US. Strong US domestic usage and robust export inspections does give a supportive undertone. From a technical standpoint, the market lacks conviction, with momentum oscillators neutral and no clear breakout signal yet.
• Crude oil has been the primary driver of volatility, trading in wide intra-day ranges as headlines shift sentiment rapidly. Prices repeatedly tested and eventually reclaimed the $100/barrel level, reflecting a persistent geopolitical risk premium. The market reacted sharply to developments around shipping routes, though gains struggled to hold at times.
• Canadian canola has traded either side of the 50-day moving average for much of last week, before making a break towards overhead resistance as commercial buying and production uncertainty helped bring support. Forecasts in Canada look to delay the planting campaign for any that were looking to get in early, though this is no major cause for concern yet.
• MATIF rapeseed has shifted into a more fragile technical structure after failing to post a new high and breaking its upward trendline. While we saw some recovery on currency support and firmer outside markets, price action near recent highs suggests exhaustion, with a potential reversal pattern forming, this is a point to watch closely for the rest of this week. The market is now testing key resistance around previous highs, and failure to hold could trigger a move back toward support levels. EUR/USD fluctuations and direction in crude remain critical, with technical signals increasingly pointing to a market searching for its next directional cue.
  
  

Outlook
The oilseed complex remains highly sensitive to external drivers, particularly energy markets and macro headlines. While underlying demand remains supportive, technical setups across soybeans, canola and rapeseed suggest markets are at decision points. A sustained move in crude will likely dictate direction, while weather developments in North and South America will increasingly come into focus. In the near term, expect continued volatility and range-bound trade, with downside risks emerging if key support levels fail to hold.

Oats

The oat trade is in a lull period with most millers awaiting the next flush of demand from retail customers before looking to take any additional old crop top ups or fresh new crop purchases. The rally in commodity prices caused by the Iran war is not being directly transferred to oat markets as buyers see oats as less impacted by wheat prices and more influenced by oat S&D fundamentals. However, high fertiliser and high fuel prices combined with low oat values will start to reduce oat plantings as growers look for better gross margin crops. Planted area reductions are already expected in the key exporting nations of Scandinavia and the UK, increasing the pressure on achieving good yields from the crops that have been planted.

Key Factors:

• Limited buying pressure is helping to prevent any real nearby price rally; however, this is offset by minimal farmer selling, therefore prices remain largely unchanged.
• Low oat prices are seeing increased demand from the UK livestock sector, with compounders looking to take advantage of relatively cheap oat prices vs barley.
• High fertiliser costs are making growers question whether they should continue to plant crops that are not yet in the ground.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices are reliant on additional demand to help push prices higher, but in the medium to long term values will be determined by new crop production.

Pulses

As the year continues to push on and we near the end of April, the weather continues to look favourable towards new crop pulse development, with early reports suggesting that the emerging crop is looking in comparatively fine fettle. The only slight new crop flag at this stage is we could do with more precipitation; however, conditions are broadly good. Consumer interest is starting to pick up on the new crop, although old crop is starting to feel a little more snug. Despite all this, pulses are still stubbornly oblivious to the continuing geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Key Factors:

• Pulse markets have been relatively stead again, especially on the old crop, with little reported trade, although values have firmed slightly over the last week or slow as the end of the crop season approaches. Old crop bean values are still holding firm and continue to trade at a premium of roughly £30-35 per tonne over alternatives like rapeseed meal and soybean meal for forward positions. As highlighted in recent updates, supply and demand remain broadly in balance, allowing the market to operate steadily without major disruption.
• The favourable weather towards new crop continues to offer a tinge of optimism that will hopefully spill over as the crop becomes more established. Our Pool remains open for any last-minute additional tonnage, along with a range of other contracting options. These tools can help manage risk in what is typically a thin and sometimes volatile market, offering a more structured approach to marketing for a crop which is notoriously ill-defined and lacking readily available information. Looking a little further afield towards the Black Sea region, Romanian new crop beans are, whilst still at the behest of the weather, looking like they have some potential, all as regional demand for alternative protein sources continues to increase, with the coming crop potentially being the Sunday lunch of recent seasons for beans.
• The global pea market remains static, repercussions of the US and Iran conflict and anti-dumping legislation continue to affect trade dynamics and market confidence. Buyers are still reluctant to make forward commitments, opting instead for spot or short-term purchases. Prices are generally stable but showing a slightly firmer trend as the new crop period approaches, driven by ongoing uncertainties surrounding supply and logistics.
• In the UK, the pea market is relatively subdued, with most buyers adequately covered for the near term and only minor shortfalls anticipated before the new crop becomes available. Planting is nearing completion, but we could do with some rain. We are now in the hands of mother nature.
  
  

Outlook
Favourable weather supports a promising new pulse crop, though additional rainfall would improve outlook. Old crop markets remain firm with balanced supply and demand, while new crop interest is gradually building. Global pea markets stay cautious amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, limiting forward buying. With planting nearly complete, market direction now hinges on weather and crop development, while risk-management tools remain key in a typically thin, volatile market.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Temperatures are steadily climbing across the UK, with growers now closely monitoring conditions ahead of maize drilling. Sowing into warm soils supports even emergence and strong early growth, setting the foundation for crop performance. Establishing varieties in well-prepared seedbeds remains one of the most important steps for a successful season.

Key Factors:

• Spring seed availability: For those needing last-minute spring seed, we still have Laureate, Butterfly, and a limited selection of other key varieties available for immediate dispatch.
• Maize seed: Our portfolio covers a broad range of maturities and end uses, from early to late varieties suitable for forage, biogas, and grain. Our game maize range includes popular all-season blends, alongside later-maturing options for extended cover and feed.
• Small seeds: Demand for grass leys and environmental mixtures continues to increase. Our offering includes everything from wild bird seed mixtures to spring cover crops and flowering blends. Supply remains strong, with standard mixtures, bespoke blends, and individual components all available to meet varying requirements.
• Winter OSR: Forward planning is key to maximising success. Securing OSR varieties early ensures access to the best-performing options, supporting overall gross margin. Our portfolio is selected based on proven performance and agronomic traits. Leading choices include Daymon (new from DSV), offering high yields, strong oil content for bonus potential, and robust disease resistance including RlmS, TuYV, and pod shatter resistance. Also, Karat which is the joint highest-output variety in the East/West region and includes the new Rlm12 resistance.
• We are also pleased to introduce the ADM Establishment Scheme, designed to support growers during the early stages of OSR development on selected top-pick varieties. Please contact your farm trader for further details.
• Autumn cereals: KWS Fowlmere and LG Defiance remain two of our leading options for autumn drilling. KWS Fowlmere offers very early maturity (-2), helping to reduce harvest pressure, while LG Defiance delivers consistent high yields backed by excellent disease resistance, including a rating of 8 for yellow rust.
  
  

Outlook
With favourable soil temperatures and strong seed availability across most categories, conditions are aligning well for a productive planting window. Maintaining focus on variety selection and establishment will be key to maximising crop potential throughout the season.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Tight supply persists with East of Suez markets under increasing strain as demand returns.

Key Factors:

• Global ammonia benchmarks are expected to edge higher, with supply remaining constrained across most regions despite tentative ceasefire developments.
• East of Suez markets are particularly tight, with limited availability coinciding with a recovery in Indian demand as downstream production ramps back up.
• India is re entering the market at a time when prompt supply options are narrowing, increasing competition for available tonnes.
• FACT’s decision to cancel and reissue its 8,000 tonne tender highlights the difficulty buyers are facing in securing volumes at workable levels.
• Supply remains restricted due to earlier Middle East disruption, compounded by ongoing outages and limited flexibility from alternative producers.
• Even where production is returning, logistical uncertainty and risk premiums continue to constrain effective availability.
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets remain structurally tight with a firm upward bias. As demand recovers and supply remains constrained, prices are expected to continue edging higher. Any easing will depend on a sustained improvement in supply availability and logistics, which remains uncertain in the near term.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Seasonal slowdown caps European activity while global AN tightness persists and sulphates remain demand led.

Key Factors:

• European nitrate markets are expected to remain flat as the application season draws to a close, with limited appetite for additional purchasing.
• Field activity has largely peaked, and there are no signs of a meaningful pickup in demand, leaving the market subdued despite elevated cost structures.
• In the global ammonium nitrate market, supply remains tight, but elevated price levels are beginning to act as a cap on further upside.
• Market focus is now on Russia, where the formal export ban has been lifted this week, though uncertainty remains over whether restrictions could be reintroduced in another form.
• Any continuation or informal restriction of Russian exports would quickly tighten global availability again and support pricing.
• Ammonium sulphate markets remain broadly soft, with demand subdued across most regions.
• India is the key exception, where buying interest remains active, providing some underlying support to the market.
• In contrast, buyers in Brazil and Southeast Asia are largely adopting a wait and see approach, limiting liquidity and keeping pricing stable.
  
  

Outlook
Nitrate markets are expected to remain flat in Europe in the near term as seasonal demand fades. Globally, ammonium nitrate will stay supported by tight supply, though high prices may limit further gains. Sulphates are likely to remain stable to soft, with demand outside India remaining subdued unless broader nitrogen strength begins to reassert upward pressure.

Urea

Market pauses at elevated levels as geopolitical volatility dominates post India tender.

Key Factors:

• Urea prices reached year to date highs following the conclusion of India’s IPL tender, where up to 2.8 Mt was confirmed at L1 levels of $935/t CFR west coast and $959/t CFR east coast.
• India has now issued LOIs for around 2.5 Mt, reinforcing the scale of demand absorption and tightening global availability in the near term.
• Market direction has since become less clear, with sentiment driven almost entirely by developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Initial optimism emerged as Iran indicated the Strait would reopen, potentially releasing up to 1 Mt of stranded supply from the Arab Gulf back into the market.
• This was quickly reversed, with Iran reneging on the decision over the weekend and uncertainty returning ahead of the current ceasefire expiry on 22 April.
• If the Strait remains effectively closed and hostilities resume, a significant portion of global supply will remain inaccessible, maintaining tight market conditions.
• Egyptian prompt tonnes have continued to push higher, now trading up to $880/t FOB, confirming continued strength in replacement supply markets.
• The market remains highly sensitive to any change in logistics, with pricing now driven more by access to tonnes than underlying cost curves.
  
  

Outlook
Urea markets remain elevated but directionally uncertain in the immediate term. The key driver is the status of the Strait of Hormuz. If disruption persists, prices are likely to remain high and could test $1,000/t CFR in key regions. Any sustained reopening would introduce downside pressure, though a full normalisation of flows is likely to take time.

Phosphates

Prices continue to grind higher as supply tightness outweighs weak demand and limited liquidity.

Key Factors:

• DAP and MAP prices remain on an upward trajectory, supported by structurally tight global availability.
• Market activity remains relatively limited, with poor affordability and a stronger focus on nitrogen purchases reducing immediate buying appetite.
• Despite this, restricted supply continues to dominate price direction, forcing buyers to accept higher levels when securing tonnes.
• The absence of OCP Group from spot markets over recent weeks is a key factor, removing a major source of liquidity and tightening prompt availability further.
• Market participants are now closely watching for fresh OCP sales, which are expected to act as a key price discovery point in the current environment.
• The combination of constrained supply, limited spot liquidity and ongoing feedstock pressure continues to support a seller dominated market.
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets remain firmly bullish in the near term, with further price increases likely despite subdued demand. Supply constraints, particularly the absence of key producers such as OCP, are expected to continue driving pricing, with any fresh sales likely to reset benchmarks higher.

Potash

Stable market persists with selective strength, though demand risks are beginning to build beneath the surface.

Key Factors:

• Potash prices have remained broadly steady across most regions, reflecting balanced supply and demand fundamentals despite wider fertiliser market volatility.
• The key exception is the US NOLA market, where prices have risen approximately 8.8% since the onset of the war, indicating some regional tightening and logistics driven support.
• Overall market activity remains limited, with a lack of significant deals contributing to relatively flat pricing week on week.
• Elevated freight rates and adverse weather conditions are beginning to weigh on demand, particularly in key agricultural regions.
• These factors are raising concerns around potential demand destruction in the second half of the year, especially as fertiliser affordability deteriorates.
• Despite this, suppliers remain broadly bullish, continuing to push for incremental price increases for MOP.
• Demand has remained relatively robust to date, particularly in major import markets, helping to underpin current price levels.
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets are expected to remain stable in the near term, with a slight upward bias driven by supplier sentiment and logistics costs. However, downside risk is building beneath the surface, with high prices, freight costs and weather disruption likely to pressure demand later in the year.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1532	1.3502	1.1707

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Apr26	153-163	178-190	202-212	450-460