Market Reports

Wheat

Global wheat markets firmed modestly around the USDA’s March 31 reports, as sharply lower U.S. wheat acreage, a century low, offset slightly bearish stocks. Geopolitical volatility, particularly in the Middle East, drove macro swings via energy markets, while comfortable old-crop supplies contrasted with tightening new-crop expectations, supporting deferred prices.

Key Factors

• The USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports offered a mixed, but subtly supportive tilt. The March 1 wheat stocks reached 1.30bn bushels (+5% YoY), slightly above expectations, signalling ample near-term supply. However, planted area fell to 43.8m acres (−3% YoY), below pre-report estimates and the lowest since 1919, shifting sentiment more constructive longer term.
• Overall, the USDA’s Acreage shift reinforces future tightening. With a print suggesting broad declines across all wheat classes, notably in both the spring and durum areas, highlights structural contraction. Combined with an increased soybean area and only a modest corn reduction, the data confirms continued competition for acreage, reinforcing concerns over future wheat supply availability.
• In summary, it left the old crop feeling heavy, whilst the new crop took some support. European markets are now reflecting a clear divergence, with burdensome old-crop stocks (EU ~14.7m tonnes) pressuring the nearby structure, whilst new-crop contracts gained following on from acreage cuts and cost pressures as inputs remain firm following the recent spikes in energy costs. Physical markets show firmer nearby demand than futures spreads imply.
• As ever, Geopolitics is driving volatility across most markets as they reflect the swings of the energy markets. Escalations in the Middle East pushed crude above $115/barrel at one point, before later seeing sharp reversals. Following Trump’s televised address last night, values headed north of $105/barrel again. Grain markets are tracking macro sentiment closely, with wheat supported during energy rallies but vulnerable to abrupt selloffs as oil corrected and funds reduced exposure.
• With specific crop fundamentals feeling at times overlooked in the current theatre of news, weather risks remain asymmetric. US HRW regions continue to face drought stress (57% coverage), though short-term rains have offered partial relief. The persistent dryness in key Plains areas contrasts with favourable EU conditions, maintaining a weather risk premium skewed towards US production.

Outlook
The market is likely to remain volatile, with macro drivers and geopolitics dictating short-term direction. Structurally, the reduced US wheat acreage and ongoing weather risks underpin new-crop support, while heavy old-crop inventories cap rallies. Focus now shifts to Northern Hemisphere weather and whether production risks validate tightening supply expectations.

Malting Barley

Market participation has picked up modestly over the past week, with some buyers stepping in to secure cover amid heightened volatility linked to the war in Iran. Despite this, underlying demand remains subdued, limiting upward price momentum and keeping most buyers focused on short-term requirements. Elevated feed barley values continue to underpin the market, maintaining pressure on malting premiums.

Key Factors

• Spring drilling progress has been strong, with an estimated 80-85% of the English crop now in the ground. Recent improvements in weather are also encouraging further planting progress and supporting the outlook for crop establishment.
• Many maltsters report comfortable forward coverage through existing purchases and old crop stocks, reducing immediate demand for Aug–Dec 2026 positions and shifting buying interest further forward into 2027.
• Ongoing weakness in malting demand for the current season continues to see surplus volumes diverted into feed channels by growers.
  

Outlook
In the short term, firm feed markets are expected to provide underlying support to old crop values. Looking further ahead, market direction will increasingly depend on weather patterns and crop development, with favourable conditions likely to drive expectations for a well-supplied new crop.

Feed Barley

Markets are edging higher as tightening supply and stronger wheat prices support old crop barley despite weakening export values. New crop prices rise modestly in the wake of futures, amid favourable planting conditions.

Key Factors

• Markets are slightly higher week on week, as supply slows down with growers focussing on groundwork and drilling. Meanwhile, firmer wheat markets following last week’s Ensus announcement are helping to support barley prices on old crop positions.
• Export trade is dwindling, as challenging freight markets continue to pose a challenge.
• New crop prices are higher as futures find support, although barley is struggling to follow one-for-one as favourable planting conditions and good drilling progress bring some ease of mind to the market.
  

Outlook
Old crop prices will likely stay rangebound as the season draws to a close, with significant downside looking unlikely. New crop once again will follow the tone of macro markets, which continue to trade geopolitics.

Rapeseed

Ag markets have traded a volatile and ultimately mixed week, with macro drivers once again dominating direction. Energy strength, shifting currency dynamics, and political headlines have driven sharp intraday swings, while USDA data provided underlying support to oilseeds. The complex continues to show a strong technical underpinning, though recent sessions suggest some exhaustion near resistance levels. Attention now turns to whether markets can consolidate above key support zones or if broader risk-off sentiment triggers a deeper correction.

Key Factors

• Soybeans have traded in a relatively tight but choppy range, with price action dictated by positioning around the USDA report and weakness in soyoil. The USDA acreage figure came in below trade expectations, providing a bullish surprise and reinforcing a supportive medium-term outlook. However, improved weather forecasts and a slight increase in Brazilian production have capped upside momentum. Technically, the market is consolidating after a recent leg higher, with evidence of profit-taking and position squaring. The complex remains sensitive to veg oil direction, and while higher highs and higher lows are still intact, momentum indicators suggest the rally may be losing pace in the short term.
• Crude has been the primary macro driver this week, initially pushing towards the psychologically important $120 level before encountering resistance and increased volatility. Wide daily ranges and indecisive price action earlier in the has since translated into a corrective pullback. Despite this, the broader trend remains higher, underpinned by supply-side uncertainty and strong speculative interest. The market’s inability to decisively break and hold above resistance raises the risk of a short-term retracement, though dips continue to be bought, indicating underlying strength.
• Canola has shown a notable shift in tone this week, breaking below its long-standing trendline support for the first time this year. This signals a potential change in market structure, moving from a well-defined uptrend into a more corrective or sideways phase. Earlier support from strong crush margins and fund length has started to wane, particularly as external pressure from weaker soyoil and broader risk sentiment filtered through. Farmer selling has improved, catching up with seasonal averages, which may also be contributing to reduced upward pressure. The technical break suggests the market now needs to establish a new base before regaining bullish momentum, though it is worth remembering that crush margins remain strong and consumer buying should keep a floor under the market.
• Matif rapeseed has mirrored the wider oilseed complex, with significant volatility driven by external markets and currency moves. The push above €500 on the August contract marked a bullish breakout and continuation of the longer-term uptrend, supported by declining open interest in the nearby May as the market transitions to new crop. However, failure to hold gains above resistance at €505 and the subsequent pullback highlight the market’s
• sensitivity to macro drivers. Despite choppy price action, the structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, and support levels have so far held, suggesting the trend is still constructive if volatility can be absorbed.

Outlook
The outlook remains cautiously supportive, though markets are clearly entering a more volatile phase. Oilseeds continue to take direction from energy and macro sentiment, with technical levels becoming increasingly important. Holding key support zones will be critical to maintaining the broader uptrend. Seasonality into April offers some encouragement, but with headlines driving intraday direction, expect continued two-way trade. A period of consolidation would be healthy before any renewed push higher, particularly if crude stabilises and currency moves remain favourable.

Oats

The oat market remains under pressure, with limited engagement from millers for nearby positions and values continuing to sit below production costs. This dynamic is restricting farmer selling across Europe. While there has been a rise in new crop enquiries as buyers react to geopolitical-driven volatility, producer participation on the sell side remains limited.

Key Factors

• Growers are weighing up planting decisions amid persistently high fertiliser costs, although improved weather conditions are beginning to support additional spring oat drilling where possible.
• Demand from the feed sector is showing signs of potential growth, as elevated prices for alternative fibre sources increase the appeal of oats in compound rations.
• Export activity remains subdued, with buyers largely covered for the near term and holding back in anticipation of potential freight cost easing.
  

Outlook
Near-term price direction may find support if additional demand emerges from the livestock sector. Over the longer term, attention will centre on crop progress and weather developments, with improved conditions likely to aid planting completion and early establishment, ultimately guiding market sentiment.

Pulses

A mixed week of weather here in the UK this week, with broadly dry conditions and periodic high winds dominating – all in all ideal conditions for drying out the last of the wet patches to allow the conclusion of the spring drilling campaign in the coming weeks. There is still the ever-present backdrop of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, and following President Trump’s televised address last night, there are renewed threats of attacks on energy infrastructure and disputes over whether a ceasefire is being sought.

Key Factors

• Another week of comparatively flat pulse markets, with old crop bean values stubbornly static and maintaining their streak of relative ineffectiveness against other feedstuffs in the ration, with their seemingly ever-present c. £30–35/mt premium to alternative proteins such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal further forward. As we have written in previous weeks though, with a
• broadly balanced Supply and Demand picture, the market is basically functioning very well and just doing what it needs to do.
• With another week of good weather behind us, and a broadly supportive forecast ahead of us, we will likely see the conclusion of the spring bean drilling campaign in the next couple of weeks. For those that have still not finalised their spring area plans, beans offer a good opportunity to reduce your nitrogen requirements for the following wheat crop which will be drilled in the autumn. Their ability to fix nitrogen remains a clear advantage, particularly when looking to ease input costs for the following cereal crop. In addition to this, they contribute to improved soil structure and bring environmental benefits too, supporting pollinators during flowering. Our Pool is still available for additional tonnage, as well as a couple of other contracting options – speak to your farm trading representative for more information. These offer a practical option for navigating what can often be a thin and unpredictable market, helping to spread risk and provide a more structured route to sale.
• The pea market continues to drift without clear direction. Many long holders are still holding back from selling at current low levels, while near-term positions remain largely covered. There has been a modest pickup in trade between Canada and China, which has helped underpin some global activity. At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing freight costs higher, a factor that could begin to dampen demand in the near term. Adding to the uncertainty, early indications point to potential slowdowns in production linked to tighter conditions in energy markets—something that could eventually influence raw material demand and is worth keeping a close eye on.
• On the pricing side, the market has shown little movement compared with the previous week, with values across the UK and Europe holding steady. Sellers are primarily focused on fulfilling existing commitments, while waiting for buyers to step in and cover outstanding positions ahead of the new crop. Looking forward, planting conditions in the UK remain broadly positive. However, growers without forward cover may face increasing challenges in securing demand. In this context, alternative options such as linseed contracts are still on the table and may provide a useful degree of flexibility when planning spring sowing strategies.
  

Outlook
Markets are expected to remain steady in the week ahead, with limited price movement and a continued balance between supply and demand.

Attention will focus on the final stages of spring drilling and any shift in buyer activity ahead of new crop. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising freight costs may begin to weigh on demand, while energy market developments remain a key watchpoint for broader market direction.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

April has arrived with many Spring cereals drilled or being drilled. Focus is now turning to maize and small seed establishment, where good conditions at drilling remain essential for strong crop performance.

Key Factors

• Spring seed availability: Availability is tightening, with limited stocks of Laureate, Butterfly and a small number of other key varieties remaining for immediate dispatch.
• Maize seed: Our portfolio covers a wide range of maturities and end uses. Limited stocks of the new KWS variety Mojo (FAO 170) are available, offering strong yield and good energy content for forage and AD. Game maize options include all-season blends and later maturing types for extended cover and feed.
• Small Seeds: Demand is building for grass leys, environmental mixtures and fodder beet. Supply remains good, with options available to suit different systems.
• Winter OSR: Our top pick list of OSR varieties is robust, with varieties specially selected for their traits, characteristics and performance. Some of our key varieties include Daymon (DSV) a new candidate variety with impressive yields (particularly in the Northern region) and high oil content, LG Atom an interesting new Limagrain variety with consistency and a number of characteristics/ traits. Plus, Karat the joint highest gross output in the East/West on the AHDB Recommended List, offering high gross margin opportunity. 
• We are also pleased to announce the launch of our ADM Establishment Scheme helping support growers through the early stages of OSR development on a few of our top pick
• varieties. Get in touch with your farm trader to find out more information about this offering.

Outlook
Both spring and autumn cropping present solid opportunities, but timely seed decisions will be important to secure supply and maximise performance.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 
Geopolitical risk reasserts upward pressure as ceasefire hopes fade, keeping LNG disruption in focus.

Key Factors

• European natural gas futures rose toward €49/MWh, recovering from recent lows as expectations for a near term ceasefire in the Middle East weakened. 
• Renewed US rhetoric around potential escalation has reinforced uncertainty, with no clear timeline for resolution and continued disruption to global energy flows. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with traffic near a standstill, disrupting around 20% of global LNG trade and sustaining supply tightness. 
• European storage levels remain critically low at around 28%, increasing vulnerability ahead of the refill season and intensifying competition with Asia for available LNG cargoes. 
• EU policymakers are beginning to consider reintroducing emergency energy measures similar to those used during the 2022 crisis, highlighting the severity of current conditions. Price gains in Europe are being partially capped by warmer weather and increased renewable generation, which is reducing gas demand in the power sector. 
• US natural gas futures rebounded to around $2.86/MMBtu, tracking broader energy market sentiment as geopolitical tensions persist. 
• However, US fundamentals remain soft, with the market entering the spring shoulder season where heating demand declines and storage injections begin to build. 
• Weather forecasts point to above average temperatures through early and mid-April, which is expected to accelerate inventory builds and limit upside. 
  

Outlook
European gas markets remain structurally tight and highly exposed to

geopolitical developments, with LNG disruption and low storage levels likely to keep prices elevated and volatile. In contrast, the US market is transitioning into a seasonally weaker phase, with strong supply and reduced demand expected to cap price upside despite ongoing global uncertainty. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1480	1.3301	1.1589

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Apr 2026	149-159	170-180	196-206	445-455