Market Reports

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Gas markets surge sharply as Middle East escalation directly hits critical LNG infrastructure. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures surged around 25% to above €68/MWh, reaching their highest level in over three years as direct attacks on energy infrastructure intensified supply fears.
•  Iran launched missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, which houses the world’s largest LNG export facility, significantly escalating the risk to global gas supply.
•  Additional disruptions were reported across the region, with Abu Dhabi suspending operations at the Habshan gas facilities and LNG assets in Bahrain also impacted by missile strikes.
•  The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, removing a key transit route for roughly 20% of global LNG flows and severely restricting supply to global markets.
•  The disruption comes at a critical time ahead of Europe’s storage refill season, with EU inventories already around 15 percentage points below the five year average following a colder winter.
•  US natural gas futures rose to around $3.2/MMBtu, supported by the same geopolitical escalation, though gains were more contained relative to Europe due to strong domestic supply. 
  
  

Outlook 
European prices are expected to remain highly elevated and volatile given direct disruption to LNG infrastructure and constrained storage levels ahead of refill season. US markets are likely to remain comparatively insulated due to strong domestic production, but continued global LNG disruption will keep a firm floor under prices. 

Ammonia

Ammonia markets tighten further as Middle East supply is effectively removed and production outages escalate.

Key Factors: 

• Ammonia benchmarks are expected to continue trending higher as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to paralyse Middle East exports and remove a significant portion of prompt supply from the market.
•  The situation has escalated further following strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, with all Iranian ammonia and urea production now understood to be offline. 
• Key Iranian producers including Pardis, Khorasan, Kermanshah, Shiraz, Lordegan, Masjed Soleyman and Razi have all halted operations, removing additional supply from an already severely constrained global balance.
•  This represents a material tightening of East of Suez availability, where Iranian tonnes would typically act as a balancing flow into key import markets. 
• West of Suez markets were already tight prior to the conflict, and the removal of Middle Eastern volumes is now compounding that tightness, supporting higher benchmark pricing globally. 
• Elevated natural gas prices continue to add pressure to production economics, particularly in Europe, where further curtailments remain a risk if margins are squeezed. 
• Freight costs and war risk premiums remain elevated, further inflating delivered prices and limiting arbitrage between basins. 
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets are now in a structurally tight position with limited immediate replacement supply available. The loss of Iranian production alongside ongoing export disruption through Hormuz significantly raises the risk of further price increases in the near term. Any resolution will depend on the restoration of physical flows from the Middle East, but until then the market remains highly sensitive to further supply shocks.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Muted activity masks tightening fundamentals as supply shocks begin to build. 

Key Factors: 

• Activity across nitrates and sulphates has remained subdued over the past two weeks as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted normal market participation, despite broader strength across nitrogen markets. 
• Most nitrogen commodities have moved sharply higher, but nitrates and sulphates have lagged in terms of activity, creating potential for catch up price movement. 
• Ammonium sulphate markets remain structurally tight, with limited global availability continuing to support firm pricing despite weaker transactional liquidity. 
• Upside price risk remains firmly in place if geopolitical disruption persists, particularly through higher gas and ammonia costs feeding into nitrate production economics. 
• A major additional bullish factor has emerged with Russia halting exports of ammonium nitrate for one month, with the possibility of an extension.
•  The export ban follows already tightening domestic supply conditions in Russia, driven by escalating drone strikes on key nitrogen infrastructure. 
• Acron’s Dorogobuzh plant, a major producer with capacity of 1.56 million tonnes per year of AN, is now offline and is expected to remain shut until at least May.
•  The outage significantly reduces available supply both domestically and into export markets at a critical time during Russia’s peak spring application season. 
• With AN representing the primary nitrogen source in Russia, domestic demand is prioritised, further justifying export restrictions and tightening global availability. 
  
  

Outlook
Although trading activity remains limited, underlying fundamentals across nitrates and sulphates are becoming increasingly bullish. The combination of Russian export restrictions, infrastructure outages and elevated upstream costs is expected to drive prices higher as market participation returns. Upside risk remains significant, particularly if geopolitical tensions persist and further constrain supply. 

Urea

Urea markets continue to rally as Middle East supply is removed and global demand accelerates. 

Key Factors: 

• Urea prices are expected to sustain strong upward momentum this week as Middle East supply has been largely removed from the market, with only limited flows continuing from Oman.
• The situation has intensified further with all Iranian ammonia and urea production now offline following strikes on the South Pars gas field, removing a major source of global export supply. 
• Iranian producers including Pardis, Khorasan, Kermanshah, Shiraz, Lordegan, Masjed Soleyman and Razi had all been operating normally prior to the disruption, highlighting the scale of the sudden supply shock. 
• Although some Iranian producers had recently offered prompt cargoes, including from Chabahar, no confirmed sales have emerged, reflecting market disruption and uncertainty around logistics.
• The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain vessel movement, severely limiting export flows from the region and tightening global availability. 
• Strong seasonal demand is now compounding the supply shock, with the US, Australia and increasingly Europe entering key application periods and actively drawing tonnes into the market. 
• The US NOLA market has continued to rally sharply, with prices reaching $655/st FOB for late March to early April barges, up significantly from the $585–625/st range seen the previous week. 
• Price momentum has been consistent, with successive daily increases driven by strong buying interest and limited prompt availability across the system. 
• Despite strong domestic demand, there are emerging discussions around potential re export opportunities from the US, as international prices move to a premium over NOLA, highlighting the tightness in global markets. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea markets remain firmly bullish in the near term, driven by a combination of severe supply disruption in the Middle East and strong seasonal demand across key import regions. Prices are expected to remain elevated and volatile, with further upside risk if geopolitical tensions persist or logistical constraints continue to restrict flows. Any easing is likely to depend on the restoration of Middle East supply or a material increase in output from alternative producers. 

Phosphates

Phosphate markets continue to tighten sharply as supply constraints intensify across both finished product and key raw materials. 

Key Factors: 

• Phosphate prices increased again this week, driven by an exceptionally tight global supply outlook and ongoing disruption to Middle East export flows. 
• The conflict in the Middle East and continued lack of clarity around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining upward pressure, particularly through restricted exports from Saudi Arabia.
•  Saudi Arabia remains a critical supplier to the global DAP and MAP market, and reduced availability is tightening prompt supply significantly. 
• The market is also facing tightening availability of key raw materials, particularly sulphur, which is seeing price increases and further squeezing phosphate production margins. 
• Higher sulphur costs are expected to reinforce Chinese export restrictions, further limiting global P₂O₅ availability and reducing the likelihood of near term supply relief.
•  The combination of restricted finished product supply and tightening feedstock availability is creating a structurally bullish environment across phosphate markets. 
• The United States remains a relative outlier, where demand uncertainty has limited the pace of price increases compared to other regions. 
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets are expected to remain firmly supported in the near term, with further price increases likely as supply constraints persist across both production and logistics. The outlook remains heavily dependent on geopolitical developments, but with raw material pressures also intensifying, any resolution in shipping alone may not be sufficient to ease the market quickly. 

Potash

Potash markets remain relatively insulated, with price strength driven more by regional demand than geopolitics. 

Key Factors: 

• Potash markets continue to show limited direct impact from the Middle East conflict, in contrast to the sharp moves seen across nitrogen and phosphates. 
• The primary price driver remains Brazil, where MOP prices have continued to climb to $370–385/t CFR.
•  Suppliers remain increasingly bullish on further upside, with expectations that prices could reach $400/t CFR in the near term despite weak underlying demand fundamentals. 
• Brazilian demand remains the key support, with ongoing restocking and seasonal requirements helping to sustain price momentum. 
• Outside of Brazil, activity remains largely muted across global markets, with limited transactional liquidity. 
• The main impact from geopolitical tensions has been logistical rather than fundamental, with some disruption to shipping routes and higher freight costs.
•  Demand fundamentals remain relatively weak globally, which may begin to cap further upside if prices continue to rise without corresponding improvements in affordability. 
  
  

Outlook 
Potash markets are expected to remain broadly stable with a firm tone in the near term, led by continued strength in Brazil. However, without a meaningful improvement in global demand, further price increases may be gradual and sentiment driven rather than fundamentally supported. 

Wheat

Wheat markets firmed overall, underpinned by escalating Middle East tensions, volatile energy prices and weather risks in key producing regions. Despite sharp intraday swings and broader commodity weakness at times, futures remained supported by fund buying, currency moves and tightening global supply dynamics, with volatility continuing to dominate both futures and physical trade.

Key Factors:

• Geopolitical escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz drove energy price spikes, lifting grain markets via higher input costs and inflation concerns. Oil volatility remains the primary macro driver, with crude pushing above $115/barrel and sustaining risk premium across agricultural commodities.
• Weather remains mixed globally. Dryness in the US Plains is adding risk premium to wheat, while beneficial rains in South America improve crop prospects. European conditions are broadly favourable, though uncertainty persists around yield potential and quality for the 2026 crop.
• Currency movements continue to shape pricing, with a weaker euro supporting MATIF wheat. US dollar strength capped some upside, while volatility in EUR/USD created wide trading ranges and contributed to erratic intraday price action across European futures.
• Fund positioning has turned decisively bullish, with money managers holding net long positions across grains, including wheat for the first time since 2022. However, strong commercial selling and ample old crop stocks have limited the extent of price rallies.
• Global supply remains competitive, particularly from the Black Sea, where a weak rouble supports Russian exports. At the same time, rising fertiliser and fuel costs are expected to curb input usage, potentially tightening future supply and underpinning longer-term prices.
  
  

Outlook
Wheat markets are likely to remain highly volatile, with direction dictated by Middle East developments, energy prices and US Plains weather. While strong global competition and demand uncertainty may cap rallies, tightening input economics and geopolitical risk suggest underlying support, leaving markets biased to the upside in the near term.

Malting Barley

Market activity in malting barley remains subdued, with most buyers reluctant to follow recent strength in wheat markets. Ample carryover stocks and an absence of significant supply-side concerns have left buyers relatively comfortable, with greater emphasis placed on demand rather than availability. Meanwhile, feed barley values continue to strengthen, putting pressure on malting premiums.

Following a spell of drier weather across the UK, Storm Eowyn is now bringing strong winds and further rainfall, which may reverse some of the recent soil drying. While it is still too early to suggest any meaningful production risks, uncertainty remains while the crop continues to develop.

Key Factors:

• Ongoing strength in feed barley demand is drawing surplus malting barley into feed channels.
• Growers holding long positions may benefit from any new crop disruption, though this approach carries risk.
• Demand for Aug–Dec 2026 positions may be limited, particularly for growers lacking storage flexibility; positioning for Jan–Mar 2027 may offer better opportunities.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, price direction is likely to be driven more by feed markets than malting demand. Over the medium to longer term, attention will remain on new crop development, with weather conditions across key EU growing regions being a critical factor.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain supported, but export challenges and FX rates are capping price upside. Tight supply and expected Q2 buying provide underlying support, while improving weather and planting progress weight slightly.

Key Factors:

• The market continues to fund support, although strength in GBP/EUR and ongoing freight challenges are limiting export liquidity and capping price potential.
• We continue to see export demand from Ireland and interestingly Portugal for spot through to June.
• Domestic consumer activity remains relatively quiet for now, though anecdotally consumers still have old crop positions to cover through Q2.
• Warming weather and increased sunshine bring the prospect of turnout, which should bring a seasonal softening in feed demand.
• The better weather is also improving ground conditions and supporting spring planting progress, which is encouraging after an extremely wet start to 2026.
• New crop basis is weakening as futures move higher, and barley is struggling to keep pace with wheat due to slow demand.
  
  

Outlook

Old crop prices expected to remain rangebound in the short term as supply and demand factors are balanced. New crop prices are once again likely to follow macro commodity markets, with geopolitics again the main driver.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets traded a volatile, headline-driven week, with macro risk and geopolitics dominating direction. Energy markets remained pivotal, injecting both risk premium and volatility, while currency moves added pressure. Despite indecisive price action near recent highs, underlying technical support levels across rapeseed and canola remain intact for now.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans experienced significant volatility, initially holding trend structure before collapsing limit down on concerns over delayed US-China trade discussions. The market effectively priced in a worst-case demand scenario after Trump’s announcement delaying Xi meeting despite no confirmed policy shift, highlighting sensitivity to macro headlines. Brazilian production revisions from CONAB (177.85 mmt vs expectations of 179.3 mmt) offered limited support. Technically, the market briefly broke momentum but managed to stabilise, with strong crush margins and improved meal offtake providing a floor. Price action suggests a market attempting to base, though upside remains capped without renewed export demand clarity.
• Crude remained the primary external driver, trading in a highly reactive, headline-led environment. Prices oscillated around the $100/barrel level before surging sharply above $115 on escalating geopolitical tensions and supply chain uncertainty linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Temporary bearish inputs, such as waivers on Russian oil cargoes, were quickly absorbed by the market. The persistent risk premium and tightening logistics continue to underpin the complex. From a technical standpoint, the market remains in a strong uptrend, with dips being bought aggressively as traders factor in ongoing supply disruption risk.
• Canola mirrored soybean volatility but retained a more constructive technical structure overall. After posting the strongest weekly close since June last year, the market saw a sharp correction driven by soybean weakness, testing trendline support with multiple touches. The subsequent rebound, supported by improved biofuel sentiment and stronger soyoil, reinforces the validity of this support zone. However, repeated tests of resistance levels and increased farmer selling into rallies indicate overhead supply. The market remains in a trent, with direction likely contingent on external oilseed and energy market cues.
• MATIF rapeseed followed a similar pattern of early weakness and late recovery, with old crop testing key trendline support levels before stabilising. The sharp selloff early in the week was exacerbated by soybean losses and currency strength, though prices found support around €484, forming an “inside day” – typically a bullish reversal signal within a pullback. Despite a broadly indecisive week, the ability to hold technical support keeps the wider uptrend intact. New crop continues to show relative resilience, with scope to trade higher if external markets remain supportive.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and macro headlines, particularly around energy and US-China relations. Crude oil direction will continue to set the tone for the oilseed complex, while any confirmation of demand shifts in soybeans could drive the next major move. Technically, rapeseed and canola are holding key support levels, suggesting underlying strength, but require external bullish catalysts to break higher. Expect continued volatility with a bias toward rangebound trade unless fresh fundamentals emerge.

Oats

Trading in the oat market remains quiet, with UK consumers reportedly well covered on old crop through to June/July 2026. Current price levels continue to deter selling, with many holders unwilling to realise losses. At the same time, low prices may encourage increased on-farm feed usage, potentially reducing the surplus previously anticipated. Activity in new crop remains limited, as growers hold back sales pending either firmer prices or improved crop establishment.

Key Factors:

• Export demand has paused temporarily due to elevated freight costs linked to geopolitical tensions, though further wheat market strength could prompt renewed buying interest.
• Feed oat prices have fallen to levels where compounders are maximising inclusion rates, which should lend some support to milling values.
• Recent wet weather, combined with higher fertiliser costs, may lead some growers to delay planting of remaining crops.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, prices are unlikely to see significant upward movement given the perception of ample UK supply, although stronger feed demand could shift this balance. Looking further ahead, reduced planting areas across major global producers could tighten supply, leaving the market more sensitive to any production setbacks.

Pulses

Whilst we have seen another week of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, beans have taken little notice of this. The focus is now starting to turn well and truly towards the New Crop, with wall-to-wall sunshine and warming temperatures across most of the UK leading to a more positive outlook for the coming spring drilling campaign. Spring has certainly sprung.

Key Factors:

• As ever, there has been little change to old crop bean values, which are still maintaining their relative level of uncompetitiveness against other feedstuffs in the ration – admittedly, with the recent nearby pop in values, beans are at their closest for looking competitive in a long time, however this rapidly drops away to the usual c. £30–35/mt premium to alternative proteins such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal further forward. However, as we’ve stated before, this continued indifference to being competitive on price is correct, as it is rationing demand primarily in to the mainstay consumer of the poultry sector, and not much else, which given the overall supply picture, is required.
• We’ve had a week of splendid weather across the UK, and there has been a marked increase in land work as a result, with people out applying fertiliser and spraying off ahead of imminent drilling. All sings are pointing towards a productive and rapid spring campaign that has gathered yet more pace, and beans seem to be forming a key part of it. With the recent rally in fertiliser prices, beans are certainly worth thinking about, as their nitrogen fixing ability will help reduce subsequent input requirements for following cereal crops. In addition to this, they offer a great alternative in the rotation, helping improve soil structure and providing support to pollinators throughout the flowering period, and when partnered with the appropriate agronomy and input schedule can return a strong yield and subsequent gross margin. For those planning on drilling beans but stuck on the marketing options, our marketing Pool remains open for additional bean contracts — a useful route to manage exposure in what is often an illiquid and difficult-to-read market.
• The pea market continues to show limited momentum, with sentiment closely aligned to trend in the bean sector. Overall demand remains subdued, while competitively priced Canadian peas—contracted prior to the anticipated renewal of trade flows with China—are still entering the EU market. Although prices have edged slightly above seasonal lows, buyer activity remains cautious. Ongoing uncertainty is discouraging forward commitments, resulting in a market that is largely driven by spot transactions.
• In the UK, buying interest remains restrained. Trading activity is limited to small volumes of feed peas, with no significant scale observed. Human consumption buyers are generally well covered, and sellers are primarily focused on fulfilling existing contractual obligations. Previously referenced pea buyback schemes have now concluded, though some growers continue to evaluate their marketing strategies for the upcoming crop. At the same time, contracts for alternative spring cropping options, such as linseed, remain available for those considering diversification.
  
  

Outlook
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, pulses markets remain focused on the new crop, supported by strong UK drilling conditions and favourable weather. Beans are expected to play a key role given agronomic and cost advantages, though prices may continue to limit demand to core sectors. Pea markets remain subdued, with cautious buying likely to persist, but activity could gradually improve as trade flows stabilise and new crop prospects become clearer.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Fertiliser spreaders and drills are out across much of the UK following a spell of dry weather, helping to dry land conditions and allowing fieldwork to begin.

Key Factors:

• Spring Cereals/Pulses:
  We currently have stock available for immediate dispatch if you are looking to place a new or top-up order. Varieties include Laureate SPD, Butterfly, along with a selection of other spring seed options.
• Spring OSR & Linseed:
  If you are considering alternative crops, spring OSR and linseed offer strong gross margin potential and are excellent break crop options within rotations. Buyback contracts are available.
• Maize:
  Whether you are looking for game maize, forage, AD, or grain varieties, we have options to suit your requirements. Now is an ideal time to book ahead of the main maize drilling period. Full details are available in our maize catalogue.
• Small Seeds:
  If you are planning spring sowings such as grass leys, environmental or stewardship mixtures, fodder beet, or other small seeds, now is a good time to discuss your requirements to ensure availability of the right options.
• Winter OSR:
  Planning ahead is crucial to secure the best selection of varieties. One of our top recommendations is Karat—an exciting addition to the AHDB Recommended List. It offers joint-highest gross output in the East/West region, high oil content, and features the new Rlm12 resistance to Stem Canker.
  
  

Outlook
With drilling underway and strong options across all crops, now is the time to secure your seed for the season ahead.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1572	1.3266	1.1460

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Mar26	147-157	167-177	196-206	430-440