Market Reports

Wheat

Global wheat markets surged to multi-month highs on fund short covering, US Plains weather risks and geopolitical tension, before stalling as improved rainfall forecasts and tariff uncertainty tempered bullish momentum. European futures tracked Chicago higher, with Euronext milling wheat testing €200/t, while UK markets lagged amid heavy old-crop supply and widening carries.

Key Factors

• Chicago and Kansas City futures rallied sharply, driven by aggressive short covering and fresh technical buying. Managed money trimmed sizeable net shorts, propelling prices beyond recent trading ranges before momentum faded on improved US weather forecasts and profit-taking.
• The United States Department of Agriculture Outlook Forum projected lower 2026/27 wheat acreage and steady ending stocks, broadly in line with expectations. Meanwhile, shifting US tariff policy under Donald Trump injected volatility across grains, complicating export and demand outlooks.
• Wildfires and dryness in the US southern Plains initially underpinned prices, though subsequent forecasts for improved precipitation curbed gains. In Europe, excessive rainfall has trimmed French crop ratings and disrupted fieldwork, even as parts of central Europe benefit from adequate moisture.
• EU soft wheat exports are running ahead of last year, with Romania leading shipments. Algerian tender prices firmed, yet physical basis levels weakened against futures. Black Sea origin remains competitively priced, with Russian FOB values steady and seasonal export acceleration expected.
• London wheat broke from its range but underperformed Paris. A firm May–Nov carry of £6–£7/t signals burdensome old-crop stocks, encouraging nearby farmer selling. New crop appears relatively premium, reinforcing the view that the front end may need to soften to clear supply.
  

Outlook
In the absence of a renewed US weather scare or geopolitical escalation, wheat may struggle to justify further gains given ample global supply and softening technical momentum. Attention will centre on Plains rainfall, Black Sea export pace and fund positioning. Consolidation near €195–200/t on Euronext looks likely in the near term.

Malting Barley

Another week of minimal trade being reported in malting barley with the majority of maltsters stating that they are awaiting fresh demand before the look to cover anything. Strong feed barley demand is continuing to pressure malting premiums and it is possible that this gets close to parity for some areas in the short term. Longer term the wet weather continues to limit spring drillings and this is helping to support malting premiums, however given the negative demand picture it is possible that premiums will not rally much unless there is a quality issue or problem with other EU malting crops.

Key Factors

• Strong export demand for feed barley into EU and 3rd country markets is eroding the malting premium. Consequentially farmers are selling into this market rather that take the risk of selling as malting where bugs and loss of germ has been a consistent issue.
• Long holders of malting barley may benefit from a late season rally if there is a supply squeeze due to the strong feed demand and high number of downgrades due to loss of germination.
• New crop business has seen some activity with brewers looking to lock into some supplies in recent weeks however demand for OND’26 positions remain very poor. Consequentially farmers should be prepared to sell for Jan-Mar’27 positions should they want to sell into the malting sector..

Outlook
Short-term upside remains limited with strong feed prices likely to keep malting premiums low. However, in the medium to long term new crop production risks remain therefore any issues in key EU growing areas will quickly shift the balance. Focus will therefore remain fixated on weather developments in the months ahead.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain quiet, with prices holding steady despite firming futures. Nearby coaster demand into Ireland is providing support, while domestic demand is easing as barley becomes less competitive. Some new crop coverage is taking place, but farmer selling remains limited due to slow drilling progress.

Key Factors

• Activity has been limited this week, keeping prices broadly flat despite futures breaking out of long term range.
• Nearby export demand to Ireland continues to underpin the market.
• Domestic demand is softening as alternative feed options gain competitiveness.
• Buyers are starting to cover new crop, though farmer selling is still unlikely given delayed planting.
  

Outlook
Old-crop values should stay supported by export demand, but significant upside looks unlikely without stronger demand or a continued futures rally. New-crop prices are expected to move in line with wheat for now, with clearer direction likely once planting progress becomes clearer later in the spring.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have traded a volatile but broadly constructive week so far, with macro headlines dominating direction. Tariff uncertainty following rulings on President Trump’s trade measures injected two-way risk into veg oil flows, while US–Iran tensions and OPEC+ rhetoric kept energy markets choppy. Currency strength in the euro capped European rallies, and farmer selling accelerated. Despite sharp intraday swings, the wider oilseed complex continues to respect upward technical channels.

Key Factors

• Chicago beans have chopped around within a wide range but remain underpinned by product strength and renewed export chatter. Early weakness linked to tariff news after the US Supreme Court’s ruling that Trump’s existing 10% tariffs were Illegal. Following this, Trump placed a new 15% tariff on all countries which would be in action for 150 days. Midweek, reports of Chinese interest in US offers and confirmation of Indonesian meal demand for 2026 provided fundamental support, while anticipation still builds around the EPA’s 2026/27 RVO proposal. Technically, futures are consolidating above recent breakout levels, with strength in meal dragging the complex higher. Volatility is likely to persist given headline risk, yet momentum indicators are tilting constructive as long as we hold above near-term moving averages.
• Energy markets remain pivotal for veg oils. Crude stalled this week after a geopolitical risk premium built around US–Iran tensions and concerns over flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, scheduled diplomatic talks and discussion of a potential OPEC+ output increase of 137,000 bpd for April capped rallies. Price action suggests overhead resistance is containing gains, with the market trading in a consolidation band. A de-escalation could trigger long liquidation, while any disruption headline would quickly reprice risk. For oilseeds, direction in crude continues to influence biodiesel margins and speculative fund positioning.
• Canola continues to be the relative outperformer. Strong cash crush margins and tightening crude canola oil availability have encouraged persistent crusher demand, allowing futures to grind higher within a tight ascending channel. The market repeatedly tested overhead resistance near CAD $693.50, with solid support emerging on trendline pullbacks. Despite large stocks, demand has so far absorbed supply, and technical structure remains bullish while higher highs and higher lows are intact. However, expanding Chinese rapeoil stocks and ongoing Russian imports may temper upside if product demand softens. The chart remains constructive, but we are nearing levels where profit-taking could emerge.
• Paris rapeseed has mirrored the wider complex but faced sharper corrections late week. After pushing to new contract highs and encouraging improved farmer selling, the May contract suffered an €8+ technical pullback, exacerbated by EUR/USD strength holding at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Commercial hedging and triggered stop-loss orders accelerated the move lower. Despite this, the broader uptrend channel remains intact for now, with new crop still respecting trend support. Liquidity in the UK cash market remains slow, but futures volume suggests European producers have been active sellers into strength. The coming sessions are critical: holding trendline support would preserve the bullish structure; failure could shift us back into sideways consolidation.
  

Outlook
The oilseed complex remains technically constructive but headline-driven. Soybeans will hinge on export demand and clarity around US biofuel policy. Crude oil direction, particularly around US–Iran talks and OPEC+ supply decisions, will steer veg oil sentiment. Canola retains upside momentum if crush margins stay firm, while Matif must defend channel support to avoid deeper correction. Expect continued volatility, with tariff developments and currency moves shaping short-term price swings.

Oats

Trade activity remains poor with minimal fresh demand coming forward. Growers are reluctant to sell at levels so far below other grain markets and consumers are looking to maximise their advantage by being resistant to pay high prices to support this supply chain going forward.

Key Factors

• Export flows are starting to reignite with consumers in some EU nations and 3^rd country expected to look to buy ahead of the easter period.
• Feed oats are currently hard to trade with a minimal amount of supplies coming forward form the normal EU exporting states of the Baltics and Scandinavia. Therefore with some demand emerging in Spain due to a lack of farmer selling it will be interesting to see where prices go.
• In the UK, the poor prices being bid is resulting in a real slow down in selling from first hand suppliers. Growers are either feeding to their livestock or holding on hoping for a better market in new crop.
• The wet weather continues to hamper spring drillings and with the optimal window now passed we could see a deterioration in quality and yield unless the weather conditions are favourable. However it is still too early to right the crop off given that we are still in Feb and growers may get the opportunity to plant in March should things dry out. 
  

Outlook
In the short term, prices appear to be holding and downside pressure looks minimal. Focus will start to shift to new crop and this could provide the support to prices that growers and long holders are hoping for.

Pulses

The pulse sector has seen another quiet week, with prices for both peas and beans holding steady. Trading activity remains limited, and there’s little sign of fresh momentum. Feed beans are still struggling to find space in feed formulations, while pea supplies remain comfortable amid slow export interest. Overall, the market continues to move sideways.

Key Factors

• Prices for old crop beans have shown impressive stability, but that consistency hasn’t translated into improved competitiveness. Between February and April, beans are still priced around £10–15/mt higher than levels that would encourage wider feed use. Looking further ahead, they remain roughly £30–35/mt above alternative proteins such as rapeseed and soybean meal. These price gaps are keeping demand subdued, as buyers find little incentive to switch.
• On the farm, thankfully we have seen less rain in the last week but recent rainfall amounts is certainly making fieldwork challenging. A stretch of drier weather will be essential to keep drilling on track. For those looking to manage market exposure, our marketing pool remains open to additional bean contracts — an effective way to navigate what is often a thin and unpredictable market.
• The pea market mirrors the bean situation, with limited movement and cautious buying. UK demand remains soft, while competitively priced Canadian peas continue to move into Europe. Much of the trade discussion is focused on Canada’s relationship with China, especially following early shipments of Canadian yellow peas. The next few weeks will reveal whether Chinese buyers return to their usual supply sources.
• Within the UK, purchasing interest is light as the market works through existing stocks. Although pea buyback programmes are now fully booked, some growers are still exploring new-crop options. For those considering alternatives, spring linseed contracts are also available this season..
  

Outlook
Market sentiment remains gently weaker. Without stronger support from feed manufacturers or the food sector, any sustained price rallies appear unlikely. Beans continue to trade at a premium to other proteins, and abundant pea supplies — coupled with active international trade — are expected to cap any upside potential. Unless demand improves or stock levels fall, pulse values are likely to continue their steady, range-bound trend.

Seed

With some dry weather in the forecast, spring drilling is at the forefront. Now is the time to consider the opportunities across our seed portfolio to maximise both performance and profitability on farm.

Key Factors

• Considering your rotations this Spring? Linseed offers an excellent break crop option, delivering a strong gross margin while also bringing valuable soil health benefits. Bingo (Spring Linseed) sits at the top of the AHDB Recommended List for yield, combining early maturity with a robust disease package. Speak to your Farm Trader to learn more about our Linseed contracts.
• Maize demand remains strong, with availability of some popular varieties already tightening. Whether you are growing for grain, forage or AD, our portfolio includes a wide range of maturities to ensure the right fit for your requirements.
• We also have stocks available for immediate dispatch of Lynx, Laureate, Isabel and other spring options, to suit any last minute requirements.
• Attention is also turning towards grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and a broad selection of small seeds, as plans develop for the season ahead.
• Looking ahead to the autumn, new to the 2026/27 AHDB List, Winter Wheat KWS Fowlmere is one of the most exciting additions for the coming season. As the earliest‑maturing variety on the RL and boasting class‑leading specific weight among Group 4 hard wheats, it offers growers a rare combination of timeliness, performance and risk reduction. With ultra early harvest, strong yields and robust agronomics, Fowlmere is a standout choice for those looking to protect grain quality, ease harvest pressure and build greater resilience into their rotation.

Outlook
With strong demand across several crops and availability already tightening in key varieties, we recommend speaking with your Farm Trader soon to secure the right options for your rotation.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Geopolitical risk supports Europe while US drifts lower on mild weather and strong supply.

Key Factors

European futures are trading around €31 per MWh as markets price geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for roughly 20% of global LNG.
• Renewed rhetoric around Iran’s nuclear programme has increased concerns over potential military escalation and tanker disruption.
• EU gas storage remains tight at below 31%, versus 40.7% a year ago, with Germany at 20.7% and France at 21.1%, keeping the market structurally sensitive.
• US futures have fallen toward $2.80 per MMBtu as traders anticipate a smaller storage withdrawal of around 36 bcf, sharply below recent winter draws.
• Lower 48 production remains robust at 108.7 bcfd in February, above January levels, with mild weather expected to narrow the storage deficit to near 1%.

Outlook
European prices are likely to remain headline driven, with geopolitical risk and low storage levels providing a floor, though stronger renewables and LNG arrivals limit upside. In the US, the bias remains softer as winter fades and production stays elevated, unless an unexpected weather shift or export disruption tightens balances.

Ammonia
Atlantic steadies while East turns softer ahead of seasonal slowdown.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1461	1.3528	1.1800

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Feb 26	145-155	160-170	195-205	425-435