ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Grain markets have remained volatile since the September WASDE, with the report providing mixed but mildly bullish impetus. Corn emerged as the most supportive component, while wheat came under pressure from larger global supplies. Since then, Black Sea disruption, Middle East tensions, weather and a firmer dollar have increasingly driven price action.

Key Factors:

• The WASDE delivered mixed signals, with the report initially prompted a limited bullish response on Corn, but much of the move quickly faded. Corn received the strongest fundamental support from lower US production and stocks, while wheat sold off on higher global production and inventories. Soybeans were mildly supportive as stronger exports offset a larger US crop.
• Whilst wheat’s supply picture remains comfortable, exports are tightening. This was following global wheat production raised 3.1mmt to 822.4mmt, with ending stocks up 3.0mmt. Australia, Canada and Ukraine all received higher production estimates. However, Russian exports were cut by 3mmt and Ukrainian exports by only 500kmt, potentially leaving USDA’s Black Sea assumptions exposed if disruption persists.
• Black Sea disruption is once again becoming increasingly visible in physical trade. Russian exports are slowing sharply, with SovEcon estimating September shipments at just 1.8mmt versus 4.6mmt last year. Algeria’s latest tender reportedly bought around 600kt near $320/t CIF, highlighting firmer international values. Demand is increasingly shifting towards Australia, Canada and European origins as Black Sea execution risks persist.
• Looking to the more traditional fundamental inputs, the weather remains a two-sided influence. Heavy rainfall across the US Midwest and Great Lakes is slowing crop maturation and early harvest, while hotter, drier conditions in the Southern Midwest and Delta are supporting progress. US corn development remains ahead of normal, with modelling broadly matching USDA’s 178.5 bu/acre yield. However, to counter this, Europe remains predominantly hot and dry.
• Energy, geopolitics and currencies continue stoking market volatility, with Middle Eastern tensions supporting oil and freight costs, while Russia-Ukraine attacks remain a risk to Black Sea export infrastructure and grain flows. The Fed’s 25bp rate hike pushed the dollar to a seven-week high, creating a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities but potentially supporting UK grain prices through relative sterling weakness.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain caught between ample global grain supply and increasingly disruptive trade flows. Corn retains the stronger fundamental backdrop, while wheat faces pressure from larger stocks but support from Black Sea uncertainty. Direction is likely to remain headline-driven, with Russia-Ukraine, Middle East logistics, US harvest weather and currency movements key variables.

Malting Barley

Very little has changed over the last week with the same issues still relevant today as they were last week. A lack of buying demand from first hand consumers continues to be a common theme and this helping to keep malting premiums relatively low. High feed demand caused by the disruption in the supply of barley out of the Black Sea is also pushing feed prices higher and thereby supporting barley prices but also reducing malting premiums.

The low water levels across Europe are also continuing to cause issues for logistics and this could be expected to continue in the short term whilst there remains a lack of significant rain in the forecast. Here in the UK, questions remain over what the maltsters will deem acceptable for malting. The English crop has several issues where it is failing, and it seems logical that both Scottish and perhaps Danish will be needed to cover the shortfall left by the poor pass rates from English growers.

Key Factors:

• Ongoing disruption to grain exports from the Black Sea region continues to support feed grain markets across Europe.
• Exceptionally low water levels are restricting the movement of grain and increasing freight costs throughout the continent.
• Crop quality remains inconsistent, with high nitrogen levels and excessive screenings reducing malting acceptance rates.
• Yield performance has varied significantly between regions, although industry estimates suggest overall production is materially lower than normal.
• Domestic maltsters remain cautious buyers, with alternative origins often appearing more competitive on paper.
• Limited grower participation continues to restrict available spot tonnage.
  
  

Outlook
The dynamic between feed and malting barley markets remains the key influence on pricing. Provided feed values remain supported it is likely to see lower malting premiums whilst demand is low.

Feed Barley

The market remains quiet for another week. Origination is slow and prices remain strong as a result, with concerns about feed availability over the winter.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley values continue to show strength in a market that is tight on supply.
• From a relative value perspective feed barley remains attractive, which should continue to support inclusion levels in animal feed rations.
• Forage availability remains a concern, with expectations for continued high levels of on-farm feeding. Origination is already becoming more challenging in ruminant regions as growers remain cautious given concerns around winter feed availability.
• Export markets continue to be uncompetitive despite destination values moving higher.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices will remain exposed to global geopolitical volatility, although attractive relative value and strong FOF demand should provide underlying support to UK prices.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets have remained volatile this week, with rapeseed and canola continuing to struggle to establish fresh highs. Energy markets have seen further volatility. The latest WASDE brought a modestly tighter soybean balance sheet but also higher US production. Funds remain long canola, although resistance continues to cap gains. In Europe, farmer selling and improved crusher coverage have eased some of the nearby tightness, while attention remains on Australian output and Black Sea logistics.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans initially sold off following the WASDE report, despite the update being broadly neutral to bullish. US and global ending stocks were both reduced, with stronger export demand offsetting an increase in harvested area and yield. The market subsequently recovered as firm crush margins and a tighter US meal market provided support. August US crush was below expectations, helping meal lead the complex higher. However, fresh Chinese buying has slowed attention is now turning towards the upcoming US-China summit. Technically, beans remain well supported following the recent recovery, but the sharp reversal from the highs highlights the importance of overhead resistance.
• Energy markets have been a major source of volatility, with crude initially falling almost $5 before recovering as concerns around Middle Eastern shipping and supply routes increased. Saudi Arabia shutting a pipeline and slower shipping traffic provided fresh support, although reports of alternative cargo movements subsequently eased some of the pressure. Crude then fell nearly $3 yesterday, leaving prices broadly within the range established last week. The market remains headline-driven, with the ability to maintain gains above recent resistance important for the wider vegetable oil complex.
• Canola continues to show resilience but is struggling to break through the $840 area and establish a convincing new contract high. The market has traded in an increasingly narrow range, with moving averages continuing to provide support while overhead resistance caps rallies. Softer soyoil and weaker crush margins have recently weighed on the market, while slower Chinese buying has reduced immediate demand support. The canola/MATIF spread also remains an important watchpoint, with current values suggesting the relative competitiveness of Canadian exports may need to adjust.
• MATIF rapeseed has followed the wider complex higher and lower but remains unable to establish a fresh contract high. The latest USDA figures increased global rapeseed production by 1.9mmt, driven by larger crops in Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uruguay, gradually easing the global balance. European stocks remain relatively tight, although improved farmer selling near the highs has allowed crushers to increase coverage into the end of the calendar year and reduce some of the nearby tightness. Technically, the market remains in a narrowing pattern, with recent moving averages providing support. A sustained break either side of the current range could set the next direction.
  
  

Outlook
The oilseed complex remains finely balanced between supportive demand and improving supply expectations. Soybeans have underlying support from crush demand and a tighter US balance, although Chinese buying will be important. Canola and MATIF rapeseed remain technically constrained by resistance, while crude oil continues to inject volatility. For rapeseed, the ability to hold recent moving-average support will be key, with Australian production, Chinese demand, relative canola values and European farmer selling all likely to influence the next move.

Oats

Milling oat markets continue to see activity with first hand buyers looking to position themselves ahead of the season demand which typically kicks in around October/November time. Low water levels across Europe continues to cause problems for those needing to import Scandinavian oats and this is continuing to keep costs high.

Here in the UK markets remain very illiquid with the lack of farmer supplies being made clear by the complete lack of selling engagement. The poor yields and low-quality means growers are doing well to satisfy the contracts they already have. Feed prices in the UK are also high, and this is being led by the high demand for forage caused because of the shortfall created by the drought. We are however at import parity for oats, and this could help stabilise prices in the short term.

Key Factors:

• Farmer selling remains subdued following a disappointing harvest outcome.
• Feed grain strength is encouraging greater oat inclusion within livestock rations.
• Quality performance has generally fallen short of expectations, with relatively few samples achieving premium milling specifications.
• Scandinavian supplies are attracting increasing attention from consumers seeking additional liquidity.
• Continued geopolitical uncertainty is supporting grain values across broader commodity markets.
  
  

Outlook

As we transition out of the harvest window in Scandinavia, we could see a reduction in selling pressure combining with a rise in buying demand. If this coincides at the same time, then we could see prices rise in Q4.

Longer term, farmers continue to see winter wheat as the safer and more profitable crop to grow, therefore it is possible that UK oat production falls again next year and this may see a need for imports again in 2027.

Pulses

The pulse harvest is now more or less complete nationally, with just the remnants of the Scottish campaign remaining to be knocked over. With a highly variable campaign behind us, attention is turning towards understanding what has been harvested, and what this means for the wider crop availability. Beans are still taking most of their direction from London Wheat, although this is starting to wobble as beans ignore the
intra-day chop.

Key Factors:

• The firm domestic feed price here in the UK continues to be the value worth talking about for anything more than the very oddest of odd loads. With domestic prices remaining strong relative to other origins, there is minimal interest in UK beans on the international markets, apart from potentially the odd ad hoc container for export against specific, niche demand. Away from this, the story remains unchanged, with Egypt continuing to have large stocks, the Baltic being aggressively priced, and Australian new crop barrelling down upon us all with another large, high-quality crop, the UK’s higher priced, lower quality beans seemingly being lemonade taste and champagne pockets.
• Another week of domestic demand still being focussed around the Poultry sector, with no meaningful interest from the rest of the feed market at these values. Compared to alternative protein sources, such as Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal, beans are struggling to find a place in the diet, especially for the larger species, limiting their demand to just the most ardent of users.
• Across much of England, the CY27 drilling campaign is well under way for cereal crops and with OSR already established, meaning winter beans will soon be following. With weather conditions continuing to help replenish depleted soil moistures, seed bed preparation and proper crop nutrition will be key to the establishment of a robust, profitable bean crop for next year. Equally, the stronger and healthier a pulse crop, the better the soil conditions are for the following crop, and with there still being widespread uncertainty around what the implementation of the CBAM will mean for fertiliser pricing, making sure your beans get a solid start has never been more important. With the drilling window rapidly approaching, now is the time to ensure that your up to date with your soil indices and any pre-drilling applications are booked and made.
• There is still very little new news to report in the pea market this week. The market remains slow, with buying interest largely hand-to-mouth and only small volumes trading here and there. Prices are broadly unchanged week on week, with increasing competition from Eastern Europe and Canada adding pressure to UK-origin opportunities.
• New crop contracts have now been launched, creating some additional activity over the past few days. However, buyback areas remain limited given the lack of end-consumer commitments at present, with buyers continuing to adopt a cautious approach and largely avoiding significant forward positions.
  
  

Outlook
With harvest largely complete, attention will shift to assessing true crop availability and the implications for new-crop supply. UK beans remain heavily reliant on domestic poultry demand, while competitive Baltic and Australian origins limit export potential. Peas face similar pressure, with subdued demand and growing competition likely to weigh on prices.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Seed production continues, with large volumes now moving onto farm ahead of drilling. Warm weather and an early harvest have pushed production ahead of previous seasons. OSR drilling has also moved forward and is nearing the end, helped by the welcome moisture in recent weeks. Late drilling can bring several agronomic benefits – more detail is available here:  Delayed Drilling Blog

Key Factors:

• For growers needing top‑ups or last‑minute OSR orders, please get in touch. Several varieties are now limited or sold out across the trade, but we are pleased to offer Karat, the joint highest‑yielding hybrid on the Recommended List – for fast delivery. We also have stocks of Atom (Limagrain), Duplo (DSV), and others. All varieties are available via your Farm Trader or through our online shop. Consignment stocks are positioned across England for convenient collection, including DK Excited, Atom, and Karat. 
• Looking ahead to winter wheat, key varieties to consider include:

Arlington – a new Group 1 option. If you’re looking to try a new Group 1 with midge resistance, we have limited Arlington available – first come, first served.

KWS Scope – one of the stiffest varieties on the market.

LG Defiance – a new, high‑yielding Group 4 hard with strong yellow rust resistance.

Group 3 options – KWS Flute, Bamford and KWS Solitaire, each offering a distinct agronomic package to suit different farm requirements.

• Winter Barley availability is tightening across the trade, but we are pleased to offer Craft, a well‑established and reliable choice.
• Winter Oats – Mascani remains the leading option, widely supported by both growers and end users.
• Vespa continues to be our go‑to winter bean variety, sitting among the highest‑yielding options on the Recommended List.
• Small seed demand is growing – whether you’re looking for a grass ley, SFI scheme mixture, cover crop or something else, we have a wide portfolio of mixtures and straights available. 
  
  

Outlook
As wheat drilling approaches, it’s important to align varietal choice with end‑market requirements, location, soil type and seed‑bed conditions. Making timely decisions now will help set crops up for a strong, confident start to the season.

Fertiliser

The global energy prices remain the topic of conversation with prices shifting dramatically higher as the Middle East conflict intensifies. European nitrogen producers are facing gas costs at their highest levels in almost four years, with EU natural gas prices reaching €82.5/MWh. Supply concerns persist ahead of the winter heating season with storage levels remaining notably below the 5-year seasonal average at ~68.2% full. Brent crude oil also climbed over 2.5% to reach $107.28/bl.

Europe’s second-largest fertiliser producer AGF Nitrogen announced it is mulling substantial capacity curtailments across its 3.6 million tonne/year network (which spans France, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands) due to soaring gas prices threatening financial viability.

On September 10, Sabic AN announced a Final Investment Decision (FID) for a new 2.6 million t/yr urea and 1.2 million t/yr ammonia facility in Saudi Arabia, which includes a post-combustion carbon capture unit. Commercial production is due for late 2030.

A regional meeting of eight coastal states to discuss a shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz was postponed following multiple attacks that forced the shutdown of Saudi Aramco’s 7 million b/d East-West pipeline. Additionally, Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandab strait is heightening concerns for shipowners already grappling with passage risks.

The US House of Representatives is preparing to vote on a Russia sanctions bill that could result in tariffs on US imports of Russian fertiliser. Separately, the US Department of Agriculture announced measures to expand agricultural cooperation with Venezuela, a move that could assist Venezuelan state petrochemical company Pequiven in boosting its urea and ammonia production.

Urea

International urea prices pushed broadly higher, driven by fresh trader activity, emerging seasonal demand in Europe, and escalating shipping constraints in the Middle East. As a result, Middle East FOB values strengthened to $440-450/t and North and West Africa saw significant FOB activity. Algerian granular urea was sold up to $540/t FOB for October shipment to Europe, while Egyptian granular urea sits at $505–510/t fob following a 7,000-tonne sale by Helwan. In Nigeria, Dangote sold 30,000 tonnes of granular urea at $485/t fob Lekki for late September loading. In America, Urea Granular Bulk FOB US New Orleans barge Spot 448-455$/st. Baltic Sea granular spot hovering around $400-440/t FOB up $20 week on week.

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrates extended their rally as producers lifted offers across AN, CAN, and UAN in response to surging natural gas costs. Baltic ammonium nitrate continues to hold firm, supported by tight supply.

Global AS prices are expected to hold recent gains as the market waits for clarity on China’s next export quota allocation and CIQ rules. Chinese standard amsul prices are flat at $195–200/t fob on muted market activity. In Brazil, compacted amsul pushed up to $250–255/t cfr, buoyed by emerging sugarcane demand in the northeast and tight domestic availability.

Ammonia

The ammonia market divide is widening. Persistently elevated EU Natural gas prices maintaining upward pressure across the Atlantic, many ammonia producers are shutting down and drastically curtailing production posing a serious issue for nitrogen supply. Conversely, markets East of Suez (Southeast and East Asia) are searching for a price floor, with any recovery dependent on a resurgence in Indian demand to absorb volumes. Middle East ammonia bulk FOB down a further $10/t to 400-425$/t.

Potash

Potash prices declined across key benchmarks in Brazil, the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia. The Brazilian market continues to lag due to weak demand and a low appetite to purchase ahead of the soybean planting season. In China, domestic MOP prices held steady with sufficient supplies as buyers continue to purchase hand-to-mouth. Brazilian granular DAP spot CFR at $380-385/t down $5/t week on week. Despite finished phosphate prices falling, analysts note that high raw material costs particularly elevated sulphur and phosphoric acid values are acting as a solid floor.

CBAM

The European Parliament has voted to reject Article 27a, effectively ending the industry’s hopes for a “political off-switch” or emergency suspension of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for fertilisers and ammonia. This development comes at a time when the EU ammonia supply is under extreme pressure due to a severe regional natural gas crunch, causing volatile domestic production costs and a rising reliance on imports.

Outlook

The short-term tone for urea remains bullish as supply relief appears unlikely amid escalating conflict and shipping disruptions across the Middle East. Alongside somewhat resilient global demand that continues to aid the lift in values, we are seeing hugely elevated energy costs and shipping constraints, that will continue to be the primary driver for the European nitrogen markets. We are getting closer to the end of the line for deliverable days this year, and a substantial amount of the UK market remains largely or entirely uncovered with concerns whether sufficient fertiliser can be imported, manufactured, stored, bagged and delivered to farms in time for regular application windows. Upward pressure across the market shows no signs of immediate easing.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1667	1.3376	1.1462

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sep26	176-186	198-208	235-245	460-470