ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global wheat markets remain under pressure, with Chicago and MATIF futures hitting fresh multi-month lows as weak US export demand, fund liquidation and hopes of renewed Black Sea shipping weigh on sentiment. Corn faces similar headwinds from harvest pressure and South American competition, although stronger US ethanol production offers limited support. Tight physical availability in parts of Europe is providing some resistance to the futures sell-off.

Key Factors:

• Wheat demand remains the key weakness: US export shipments are running more than 30% below year-earlier levels, well behind the pace implied by USDA projections. Competitive supplies from Argentina and Australia continue to limit US opportunities, despite lower prices improving its export competitiveness.
• Black Sea developments are driving volatility: Reports that vessels stranded in the Sea of Azov could be allowed to leave by mid-November have eased immediate supply concerns. However, Russian and Ukrainian exports remain constrained by security risks and logistical disruption, with Russia diversifying routes through Baltic ports and the Arctic.
• European wheat faces mounting pressure: December MATIF futures fell to fresh four-month lows, while London May wheat tested £201/t before recovering. Physical markets remain comparatively tight in France and the wider European region, with elevated logistics costs and firm basis levels helping to support delivered prices.
• Corn remains weighed down by supply prospects: US harvest pressure, speculative selling and limited Chinese demand continue to cap prices. Brazilian and Argentine production estimates remain above USDA forecasts, reinforcing competition in export markets, although increased US ethanol production and lower stocks have provided some support.
• Fund positioning and macroeconomic factors remain influential: Speculative investors have reduced agricultural exposure for seven consecutive weeks, leaving wheat markets vulnerable to further liquidation. The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, while geopolitical tensions continue to influence energy prices and broader risk sentiment.
  
  

Outlook
Grain markets remain vulnerable, with US export demand and Black Sea developments likely to dictate near-term direction. Further evidence of renewed Russian shipping could extend wheat losses, although tight European physical supply and rising logistics costs may limit the downside. Corn needs stronger export demand or clearer evidence of tightening supply to establish a sustainable recovery.

Malting Barley

For another week the UK malting barley market continues to experience a prolonged period of subdued activity, with values staying static over the past couple of months.

Key Factors:

• Uncertainty surrounding intake specifications, coupled with competitive feed barley values is stifling any farmer selling as growers await any further news from the end user before coming to the market.
• At the same time, very limited fresh buying interest from consumers has resulted in a relatively flat market, with neither buyer nor seller showing any interest to trade.
• Scottish barley continues to move south into England, where its generally lower nitrogen content could prove increasingly valuable. This may offer maltsters opportunities to blend Scottish supplies with higher-nitrogen English barley, potentially allowing a greater proportion of the domestic crop to meet their requirements.
  
  

Outlook
The key factor influencing the direction of UK malting barley prices will be how successfully the domestic crop can be utilised by the malting industry. For now, the market remains finely balanced, with the eventual outcome likely to become clearer as the season progresses.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are once again feeling some pressure, particularly in Northern areas. Longer term outlook is still supportive.

Key Factors:

• We see continued weakness in feed barley markets as demand remains elusive and futures continue to fall.
• Feed barley continues to maintain a comfortable price discount to both wheat and maize, supporting its competitiveness and encouraging greater inclusion in feed rations.
• Export markets remain below domestic values, with very little fresh activity to report. Vessels continue to leave Scottish ports bound for Ireland, although new export business remains difficult to secure at current price levels.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices are expected to continue tracking wheat markets in the short term, although longer term, it’s price competitiveness should support demand and drive relative value increases vs other feed products.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets drifted lower last week as harvest pressure, improving supply availability and reduced geopolitical risk premium weighed on sentiment. Soybeans came under pressure from accelerating US harvest progress and favourable Brazilian planting conditions, while Canadian canola continued to struggle for export competitiveness. Crude oil remained volatile, with supply disruption concerns supporting prices before easing again. MATIF rapeseed broke below recent consolidation support, leaving technical momentum looking weaker despite continued support from the 100-day moving average.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans struggled last week, finishing lower despite some support from US export sales totalling around 1.32mmt. The re-election of Brazil’s president Lula added pressure, with expectations of stronger ties with China potentially favouring Brazilian exports. Planting progress in Mato Grosso is ahead of last year, supported by improved rainfall distribution, while favourable dry weather continues to accelerate the US harvest. Prices have now tested the 100-day moving average, making this a key technical level to watch. A sustained break below support could unlock further downside, particularly as the market continues to await fresh Chinese demand.
• Crude oil had a strong week, with prices rallying on renewed concerns over disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and further attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Tighter US inventories also provided support following a larger-than-expected drawdown. However, prices encountered resistance around $120, with the market subsequently pulling back as diplomatic discussions involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran reduced appetite for additional risk premium. Further supply disruption headlines remain capable of driving volatility, although the recent hesitation suggests the market may need fresh bullish news to sustain the move higher.
• Canola remained under pressure, falling to its lowest levels since August before finding some support around previous lows. Harvest is now nearing completion, with generally favourable conditions allowing remaining fields to progress, although weather remains a challenge in some regions. Slowing farmer selling may provide some near-term support, but Canadian origin still needs to become more competitive to attract additional export demand into Europe. The spread has improved, though further price weakness may be required. Australian harvest is also beginning positively, adding another potential source of supply pressure as volumes increase.
• MATIF rapeseed broke below its recent consolidation range as sentiment weakened and prices failed to overcome moving-average resistance. A brief recovery towards the 20-day and 50-day moving averages was rejected, leaving the short-term trend bearish. The 100-day moving average around €541 remains the key support level to monitor, having provided a reliable floor since February. A sustained break below this level could open the door to further losses. Improving coverage, potentially weaker crush margins and the prospect of increased Australian supply are adding pressure, although technical support has so far limited the downside.
  
  

Outlook
Oilseed markets remain vulnerable to further volatility as global risk premiums continue to change. Soybeans will be looking for fresh Chinese purchases, with the 100-day moving average a key technical test. Crude oil remains headline-driven, with supply concerns balanced against easing risk premium. Canadian canola needs to improve its export competitiveness, while MATIF rapeseed must defend the €541 support area. Australian harvest progress and further developments in the Black Sea will remain important influences on sentiment.

Pulses

General quietness in the pulse sector, although we are certainly in the seasonal post-harvest/pre-Christmas lull. Global grain markets are sagging under the weight of building stocks and slowing demand, and beans are taking some lead from this. Demand remains muted against the backdrop of high relative values versus other options within the feed ration, and there is only a minimal and at best sporadic amount of demand for the odd load of human consumption pulses. Beans are making a more convincing break away from London wheat futures as they continue to trade their own story. As ever, patience remains key across the pulse complex.

Key Factors:

• The domestic feed market is again quiet, with what little interest that comes forward typically being in to the New Year. Another week passes with beans being broadly uncompetitive into several feed rations when compared to alternative raw materials. Poultry is the main sector still seeing interest, but despite the sector seeing one of the better margin structures within livestock production now, even they are questioning the viability of beans as a raw material at times.
• Another week of broadly good weather, despite a couple of named storms, has resulted in further progress being made on the winter bean drilling campaign, with seedbed conditions continuing to steadily improve. Bean marketing can sometimes be overlooked as part of the cropping cycle, but speak to your farm trading representative, as we can offer a range of options to growers, including the pools, futures-related contracts, cash contracts and associated seed and fertiliser packages. In the here and now though, focus should remain on seed-bed preparation, soil indices and crop nutrition to give the next crop the best possible start, all of which can be supported with the plethora of information available through the PGRO.
• The pea market remains broadly unchanged, with limited fresh demand and little improvement in buying sentiment. EU interest is subdued by weak nearby consumption and continued competition from competitively priced Canadian supplies. While some Q1 demand may emerge, buyers remain reluctant to commit. In the UK, fully committed HC and micronising outlets are leaving increasing volumes of open-market peas without a clear home, with some sellers having to consider feed values. Imported peas could also offer an attractive alternative to beans at current relative prices.
• As with feed, human consumption market remains challenging, with limited demand and overseas competition continuing to cap UK values. Most large blue and marrowfat requirements for next season have now been covered, leaving limited scope for additional contracts. Quality remains key, particularly given reports of smaller seed sizes and bleaching in the 2026 UK crop, which could restrict the availability of suitable samples. Securing outstanding samples and confirming quality and available tonnage will be important if opportunities emerge, although buyers remain cautious in the near term.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, pulse markets are likely to remain subdued into the year-end, with limited demand and competitively priced alternatives continuing to pressure both beans and peas. Beans are increasingly trading independently of wheat, with feed demand unlikely to improve materially before January. Human consumption opportunities remain limited, while quality will be key for next season’s contracts. Improving conditions should support winter bean drilling, with crop establishment and nutrition now the priority.


PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As October draws to a close, grower focus is beginning to shift towards spring cropping. With yield challenges reported across both the UK and Europe this season, availability is expected to be tight on several key Spring commodities, prompting earlier‑than‑usual planning and ordering.

Key Factors:

• Maize Seed – Maize continues to attract early interest. Lower yields across parts of Europe have reduced overall production, directly tightening seed supply for spring drilling. Many growers are already reserving preferred varieties to ensure access ahead of what is expected to be a constrained campaign.
• Spring Cereal Seed – Laureate remains the backbone of the spring barley market, supported by its strong performance and broad acceptance. A notable new entrant to Spring wheat this season is STR Pace – a sprinter wheat bred from both winter and spring parentage. With no vernalisation requirement, it offers genuine drilling flexibility, performing whether sown in winter or spring.
• Spring Pulse Seed – For growers looking to secure seed alongside ADM’s market‑leading buybacks, we are pleased to offer:

Butterfly and Daytona – large blue peas

Kabuki and Adder – marrowfat peas

These options provide strong market alignment and dependable performance.

• Autumn Cereal Seed – Stocks remain across a broad spread of leading varieties. Arlington, Skyfall and Crusoe in the Group 1 sector are on the floor for fast delivery for those pushing milling performance. In the biscuit segment, KWS Solitaire continues to draw interest. For feed performance, LG Beowulf and KWS Scope remain dependable choices with proven agronomic resilience. On barley, Craft – malting variety remains available on the floor.
• Autumn Pulse Seed – Vespa remains the leading winter bean choice, offering high yield potential and consistent results on the Descriptive List. Whether growers are after a top up or require seed for a new order, we are pleased to be able to offer.
  
  

Outlook
As autumn progresses, attention will begin shifting towards spring cropping plans. Growers who still need to finalise autumn requirements, or who anticipate top‑ups, are encouraged to speak with their farm trader promptly to secure suitable options. For those already turning their focus to spring, early ordering is advisable given tightening availability in several key categories.

Fertiliser

Fertiliser markets were little changed week on week and remain firm. The exception is the US, where weak demand is weighing on NOLA prices.

European gas continues to drive sentiment. The TTF front-month opened today’s trading session at €99.095/MWh and even surpassed €100/MWh yesterday keeping levels supported after reports the US is preparing a military campaign after the mid term elections, coupled with the EU starting to withdraw gas stocks.

The war risk premiums caused by conflict in both the Middle East and Russia Ukraine continue to weigh in prices through logistics costs with little developments in peace deals.

There have been no new signs of an IPL re-tender, but participants are expecting this to emerge within the next couple of weeks.

Yesterday’s budget confirmed that there will be a “temporary suspension on fertiliser tariffs”, however a lot of UK imported product is already tariff free as these exporting regions aren’t subject to the tax. CBAM will still go ahead – starting from 1^st Jan 2027. 

Urea

Egyptian granular remains unchanged from last week at $535/t FOB, as do the current UK prices at £485-490/t del for unprotected. Elsewhere, Middle East granular was assessed at $440-445/t, and Nigerian product is currently $475-485/t FOB.

Europe remains the pillar of support for the global urea market. At current gas prices, the cost of producing granular urea in Europe is roughly €700/t, against imported product at below €600/t fca in major markets. That gap makes European production uneconomic at the margin.

No European urea curtailments have been confirmed yet, but they look increasingly likely. On Tuesday, AGF Nitrogen, the region’s second-largest nitrogen producer, warned it is considering shutdowns across its plants in France, Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Closing all of them would remove around 180,000 t/month of urea capacity.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Nitrate prices remain the same as last week (£480-495/t) for the moment; however, gas costs will eventually weigh on the supply of product if all else remains equal, putting upwards pressure on prices through reduced supply.

Ammonium sulphate prices are up $5 week-on-week at $215-220 FOB despite the release of a second export allocation, keeping offers high due to limited availability.

Outlook

Urea and nitrate prices should remain supported in the short term, underpinned by geopolitical risk and gas prices near €100/MWh. There is scope for the nitrogen complex to move higher in the coming weeks. How far it moves will depend largely on the scale of European curtailments, with AGF’s decision the key one to watch. An IPL tender would add further support.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1945	1.3324	1.1115

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct26	174-184	183-193	230-240	450-460