ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

The USDA’s October WASDE report triggered a sharp sell-off across grain markets, led by a substantial increase in projected US corn production and ending stocks. Wheat fundamentals remain more balanced, with Black Sea export disruption and reduced European production providing support. However, competitive South American supplies, weak US export demand and ample global availability continue to limit broader price recovery.

Key Factors:

• The USDA raised its US corn production forecast to 16.034 billion bushels and ending stocks to 1.849 billion. Heavy fund selling intensified the post-WASDE decline, with futures struggling to recover. Although harvest progress remains behind average, updated production estimates remain below the USDA forecast, offering a potential counterweight to the bearish outlook.
• US wheat remains under pressure from weak export demand, rising domestic stocks and competition from Argentina. By contrast, European futures are supported by strong export demand, reduced French production and logistical constraints. UK wheat is showing relative strength further along the forward curve, reflecting a tighter domestic supply-and-demand balance and the potential need for imports.
• Repeated vessel attacks, adverse weather and logistical bottlenecks are disrupting Black Sea shipments. Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts have been reduced, while French export demand remains strong. These factors are supporting nearby European wheat prices and tightening spreads, although expensive freight and competition between origins complicate export economics.
• Argentine new-crop wheat is being offered competitively at around $250/tonne for November–December, with strong demand expected to support shipments through January. Australian production could exceed earlier forecasts, potentially sustaining substantial export availability. These supplies threaten US competitiveness, although Australian harvest weather and potential quality issues remain important variables.
• US corn harvest reached 33%, behind the five-year average of 39%, with wet weather threatening further delays. Crop ratings improved to 56% good-to-excellent, while production estimates remain below the USDA’s latest forecast. Ukrainian corn exports may also fall short of USDA expectations, and lower French production provides some offset to abundant US supplies.
  
  

Outlook
Grain markets are likely to remain volatile and regionally divided. Corn faces the clearest bearish pressure from the enlarged US surplus, while wheat should retain underlying support from Black Sea disruption and tighter European availability. Nevertheless, competitive Argentine supplies and subdued US export demand constrain upside potential. In the UK, the relative strength of forward wheat futures signals a tighter domestic balance and growing import-parity considerations.

Malting Barley

The market remains in a state of inertia with prices remaining largely flat for the last 2 months. A lack of clarity on intake specifications combined with attractive feed prices and sufficient storage has seen many growers disengage from the Malting barley market. Fresh demand is also not feeding into the market, and this is combing with the lack of famer selling to keep prices unchanged.

Scottish barley continues to calculate into England and with the nitrogen levels being significantly lower it is hoped this will provide the maltsters with some blending opportunities to accommodate some of the higher nitrogen English barley.

Outlook
The direction of UK malting barley prices will largely be dependent on whether the UK can use the crop which has been produced domestically, or whether they will need to switch to imported supplies. It is still too early to understand the clear direction of this, but if they are only able to use UK barley, then this could see prices rise. But if they use imports then prices could fall. One to watch!

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices have softened marginally, although restricted availability and a continued reluctance among growers to market grain are helping to underpin values against a backdrop of subdued export interest.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets have seen modest downward pressure over the past week, but prices have shown greater resilience than the wider futures market. Tight domestic supply continues to provide support, with barley maintaining a relatively attractive position against alternative feed grains.
• Grower engagement remains limited, with only modest volumes continuing to move into the market. Demand for grain retained for on-farm use is likely to remain strong, particularly across livestock-intensive regions, further restricting the volume available to commercial buyers.
• Scottish barley continues to show a theoretical export margin into Ireland for nearby shipment, although actual trade remains difficult to execute. Improved forage availability has reduced import requirements, while sizeable stocks already held at Irish ports are dampening fresh demand. Meanwhile, export opportunities from England remain commercially nonviable.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, broader global market movements are likely to dictate outright feed barley prices. Nevertheless, domestic supply constraints and an encouraging demand outlook should help maintain relative price strength through the winter months.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets remained mixed this week, with USDA figures, harvest progress and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand keeping soybeans under pressure. Crude oil struggled to extend gains despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed continued to consolidate within narrowing trading ranges. Both markets are approaching a technical decision point, with volatility contracting and key trend lines converging.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans struggled to find direction, finishing the period under pressure despite a late recovery following Friday’s USDA report. The main change from the USDA was the higher revision to yields and therefore production. US harvest progress reached 46%, up 21% on the week but still behind the five-year average of 50%. A confirmed 470,000mt sale to China offered limited support, with the market seemingly requiring more substantial demand before a sustained recovery can develop. The EPA’s decision requiring refiners to meet 100% of renewable fuel blending volumes previously exempted for smaller refineries provided some support to soyoil. On the other hand, Brazilian planting progress running ahead of normal pace adds another headwind.
• Crude oil has seen little change to price overall. Conflicting headlines surrounding ongoing strikes and comments regarding potential talks with Iran have continued to create uncertainty, while Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure have added further concerns. Shipping costs have increased, although oil flows remain operational. Crude exports have risen significantly since August, but refinery runs have remained flat amid disruption in Ukraine. Technically, the market has failed to establish a fresh high, suggesting upside momentum is weakening for now.
• Canola traded quietly around unchanged levels, with Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving on Monday. Ongoing harvest pressure continues to cap rallies, although the market has found support around its 50-day moving average. The medium-term downtrend is approaching the longer-term uptrend. Volatility is also decreasing which points towards a potential breakout. The direction of the next move remains uncertain, with harvest pressure competing against underlying technical support and strong margins.
• The MATIF rapeseed market continues to trade within a narrowing consolidation pattern, with support holding despite several intraday attempts to break lower. The developing wedge is approaching its apex, with the trading range now around €10. A breakout would typically be expected before the pattern runs out of room, but the lack of fresh fundamental input has left traders waiting for confirmation. Black Sea tensions and currency volatility remain important external influences.
  
  

Outlook
Soybeans will remain focused on US harvest progress and evidence of sustained Chinese demand, with improving supply prospects limiting recovery potential. Crude oil remains sensitive to developments in the Middle East and disruption to energy infrastructure, although its failure to make fresh highs warrants caution. Canadian canola and MATIF rapeseed are approaching important technical decision points, with narrowing ranges suggesting a breakout may be close. Until either market confirms a direction, sideways trading and further short-term volatility remain likely.

Oats

The UK oat market continues to be impacted by the overall lack of offers coming from farm.  Imports from Scandinavia remain the most liquid product, however the UK market cannot solely rely on imports as some consumers require oats from UK origin.

The millers have looked to be more accommodating of the inferior quality, however whilst there remains some selectivity due to a greater availability of supplies in nearby positions it is possible that things tighten up later in the season.

Outlook
Oats remain relatively scarce on paper, however a large import program is expected to loosen this issue. Prospects for crop 2027 also look good with production anticipated to fall again as growers look to plant wheat and OSR instead of oats. This could lead to higher prices over the next 12 months. Time will tell.

Pulses

With agricultural markets quiet in general, pulse markets have been no exception, with both peas and beans struggling for friends. With a tighter supply picture in the UK this year, import parity is the key value to watch, and it is sitting on values at the upper end. Beans are now starting to disconnect from London Wheat futures, however they are taking some loose guidance. Once again, caution is the key takeaway as the pulse market lacks friends.

Key Factors:

• The UK domestic feed market is getting very quiet, especially pre-Christmas now, with attention turning to January onwards. At the values which have been seen of late, beans do not feature in many diets which they have previously been a part of, and so consumption has fallen away as a result in favour of other competing feedstuffs, such as rapeseed meal.
• With the new crop winter bean drilling in full swing due to the permissive weather, there is some attention towards CY27, and what marketing options this could present. Speak to your farm trading representative for marketing options, however the pool is open, as are various futures related contracts, as well as different seed and fertiliser offerings to ensure any crop is maximised. Growers should be thinking about seed-bed preparation, soil indices and nutrition to give beans the best possible start.
• Feed pea prices remain under pressure, with competitively priced Canadian and Eastern European supplies continuing to limit UK market values. Import availability is keeping buyers well covered, while demand from the animal feed sector remains relatively subdued as peas compete against other feed ingredients. The near-term outlook remains bearish, with further downside possible if demand fails to improve.
• The marrowfat market remains challenging, with UK prices easing slightly amid competition from cheaper overseas origins. However, the market is more dependent on quality and demand from specialist food markets than feed peas. Reports of smaller seed sizes and bleaching in the 2026 UK crop could limit the availability of suitable quality, potentially supporting premiums for bold, well-coloured samples. Open-market demand remains selective, meaning prices will vary considerably depending on quality and the buyer’s requirements. Overall, the outlook is mixed, with pressure on general values but potential support for good-quality, specification-compliant product.
  
  

Outlook
The pulse market is likely to remain subdued into year-end, with high prices limiting feed demand and competing imports keeping pressure on peas. Beans may continue to take some direction from wheat, but import parity and domestic demand will be key indicators. Looking ahead, tighter UK supply and potential quality premiums for suitable marrowfat peas could offer selective support, although a sustained recovery will depend on improved demand.


PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Winter drilling is progressing across the UK, supported by the lifting of root crops, which is freeing up ground for further autumn sowing and early spring preparations. Activity remains high as growers look to make the most of improving soil conditions.

Key Factors:

• For winter wheat, we continue to hold good stocks across a range of leading varieties. Including Group 1 varieties Arlington and Crusoe which are proving popular choices. In the biscuit category, Bamford and KWS Solitaire are attracting consistent interest. For those targeting robust feed performance, Beowulf and KWS Scope remain reliable options with proven agronomic strength.
• Conventional feed barley availability remains very limited. Craft malting barley remains available – a well‑established variety trusted by growers for its reliability. Hybrid barley demand has surged this season, driven by growers seeking the well‑recognised benefits of hybrid vigour and enhanced grass‑weed suppression.
• Mascani retains its position as the leading winter oat variety, supported by strong market acceptance and dependable performance across regions.
• Vespa continues to be the preferred winter bean option, offering high yield potential and consistent results on the Descriptive List.
• Interest in small seeds remains firm. Grass leys, cover crop mixtures and SFI‑aligned options are continuing to see uptake, with the option of tailored blends to suit rotational needs and scheme requirements. 
• Maize is also attracting early interest this season, with availability expected to tighten following reduced yields across parts of Europe. Lower production is feeding directly into constrained seed supply for spring drilling, prompting many growers to reserve varieties now to ensure they secure their preferred options ahead of time.
  
  

Outlook
As autumn progresses, availability will continue to tighten across several varieties. Growers yet to secure requirements or requiring top ups, are encouraged to discuss options with their farm trader to ensure access to suitable varieties.

Fertiliser

After several weeks of softer nitrogen markets, with buyers waiting for direction from the IPL tender, sentiment has begun to firm and regional urea values have moved higher this week. This has been driven largely by Chinese producers holding firm on price in the Indian tender. They have strongly resisted Indian netbacks of $320–325/t FOB for prilled urea, with their price ideas rising to $340–350/t FOB.

Alongside this support from the Indian tender, European gas prices are back at four-year highs, touching €87/MWh on 13 October, up around €12/MWh week-on-week. The rise has been driven by renewed threats to shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, where six commercial vessels came under attack on Sunday, and by scarce Gulf LNG exports, which are running at only around 15–25% of pre-war levels. Low gas storage heading into winter is adding pressure, at 73% full against a five-year average of 89% for this point in the year. Colder weather is also expected to lift demand from the power sector, with Speedwell Weather forecasting daily minimum temperatures in north-west Europe below seasonal norms from around 17 October until the second week of November.

Urea
Chinese resistance in the IPL tender has eased the bearish sentiment of recent weeks. Middle East granular urea is up since yesterday $7.50/t at $435–445/t FOB, and Egyptian urea for Europe is up $12.50/t at $480–490/t fob. In the UK, unprotected urea is currently at £485/t delivered and protected urea at £525/t.

IPL is understood to have secured just 410,000t of its 1.7Mt target, with no further acceptances received by the extended deadline of 14 October. Only the lowest bidders confirmed, at $352.10/t CFR for the east coast and $356.25/t CFR for the west coast. Most suppliers declined to match these levels, leaving India around 1.29Mt short. This suggests the market is unwilling to sell at sub-$360/t CFR, adding near-term support to prices. However, India is under no pressure to buy. Stocks stand at around 9 million tonnes, against roughly 6 million tonnes a year ago, so IPL can afford to wait. A fresh Indian tender is now expected, with timing estimates ranging from within the next fortnight to early November.

Potash
Pupuk Indonesia have issued a new tender for the import of 85,000t standard MOP for Nov delivery, with delivery port(s) yet to be confirmed. In the first round of e-auction submissions, which closed on 9 October, major suppliers offered at $417–435/t CFR. Canpotex is understood to have put in the lowest offer at $417/t CFR, followed closely by BPC at $418/t, with Uralkali at $429/t, APC at $430/t and EuroChem at $435/t CFR. The lowest offer is $6/t below Pupuk’s recent award of a 75,000t tender for September delivery at $423/t CFR, which was split between BPC, APC and Canpotex. Pupuk has been a regular buyer this year, floating three 75,000t tenders since May, as well as two smaller tenders of 10,000t and 25,000t earlier in the year.

Outlook
Overall, the global nitrogen market has shifted from waiting for direction to finding support. Producer resistance to lower Indian tender prices, rising European gas costs and ongoing supply-chain concerns are offsetting the bearish influence of comfortable Indian inventories within urea markets. India’s failure to secure volume at sub-$360/t CFR suggests a floor is forming, and a fresh tender is likely to require higher prices to attract suppliers, though it could still bring volatility. Confidence that prices will move significantly lower has faded compared with a fortnight ago.

Nitrate prices look set to be strongly supported by high European gas costs, which are now almost nine times US levels. Notably, European producers were already shutting plants and cutting output last month, when gas prices were lower than they are today. With gas now higher still, this is increasingly significant for farmers: if prices hold at current levels, further production cuts are likely, tightening nitrate supply and adding upward pressure on prices.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1821	1.3187	1.1156

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct26	174-184	196-206	235-245	450-460