Market reports

Wheat

Global grain markets remained subdued as escalating US–China trade tensions, heavy Russian production, and improved South American weather combined to pressure prices. Short-lived rebounds in wheat were driven by technical short-covering, but overall sentiment stayed bearish, with narrowing spreads across European and UK futures reflecting ample supply and muted demand prospects.

Key Factors:

• Trade Tensions: Renewed hostilities between Washington and Beijing—centred on tariffs, export controls, and rare earth restrictions kept agricultural markets defensive, eroding confidence in near-term demand recovery.
• Wheat Dynamics: Russian and Ukrainian production forecasts rose, while sluggish exports and strong domestic logistics constraints capped price support; EU export competitiveness remains under threat due to strong competition from other origins.
• Corn & Soybeans: US harvest progress faced minor delays amid mixed Midwest weather, while South America reported generally favourable growing conditions. Brazil’s record corn and soybean output forecasts weighed on sentiment.
• European/UK Focus: MATIF and London wheat futures saw narrowing calendar spreads, with UK old-crop premiums softening as strong planting progress and good 2026 crop prospects reduced carry expectations.
• Macro Backdrop: A weaker dollar offered limited relief; crude oil and equities fell, while gold surged to record highs as investors sought safety amid macro and geopolitical volatility.
  
  

Outlook
With supply prospects improving and trade uncertainty lingering, global grains look set to drift lower unless macroeconomic or weather shocks emerge. Technical short-covering may spark intermittent rallies, but fundamentals remain heavy, leaving wheat and oilseeds vulnerable to further downside through year-end.

Malting Barley

Malting markets remains extremely subdued as demand continues to flag. New crop is building a premium over old crop, but on very thin trade.

Key Factors:

• Markets continue to limp along with demand as elusive as ever. Farmer selling is similarly slow, and as a result activity in malting markets is close to zero.
• FOB markets once again are trading at a negative premium vs feed, leaving no chance of developing an export market in the short term.
• The expected drop in new crop area has nominally supported values, however activity is slow. UK is now trading at a healthy premium to other EU export markets, leaving us uncompetitive again to price into continental markets.

• Demand from the domestic malting industry for crop-26 is slow, despite the worrying discussion on planted area, due to no appetite from the brewers.
  
  

Outlook
Malting markets are flat on the week, a trend which we expect to continue in the short term. Longer term, it is difficult to see significant downside to prices with a mixed bag of quality, and a lower acreage going into next season. The question is, will this be enough to support a rally?

Feed Barley

The feed barley market remains quiet, with little trading activity in both domestically and export markets. New crop markets are inactive, but some support is expected due to reduced barley planting in favour of wheat.

Key Factors:

• A very quiet week for the feed barley market. Markets feel ever so slightly softer, but values are largely unchanged across most of the country.
• Demand is sluggish, despite feed barley’s value maintaining its inclusion in feed rations, as flat markets do little to inspire buying interest from consumers.
• Export markets are once again not trading in England, as inland parities provide a better value. Scottish feed barley is calculating into Ireland, However, coverage is high and barley is less competitive overseas, which is limiting fresh buying interest.
• New crop markets are not trading, but support is anticipated relative to wheat, as wheat goes into the ground at the expense, to a degree, of barley area.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term we do not see significant downside to feed barley prices, with a floor feeling well established on sluggish farmer selling and the prospect of strong demand over the winter as livestock margins remain strong meanwhile forage is in short supply. Significant upside also looks unlikely without a wider recovery in grain prices adding support.

Rapeseed

Oilseeds have endured another choppy week as trade headlines once again took centre stage. US–China tensions remain the overriding theme, with mixed messages from both sides keeping traders cautious and reluctant to add length. Crude oil extended losses to new multi-month lows before finding mild support, while currency moves and weak sentiment across wider ags added pressure to European markets. Canola and MATIF rapeseed both tested key technical levels as the complex looked for direction in the face of positive veg oils.

Key Factors:

• The soybean complex traded narrowly this week as optimism over a potential US–China meeting faded and now seems uncertain despite reassurances that it will go ahead. CBOT soybeans closed marginally lower overall, with repeated tariff threats and rising port fees dampening enthusiasm. Despite subdued trade talk, US exports to alternative destinations such as the EU does remain strong. Soyoil saw mild support after talks of a possible US ban on Chinese used cooking oil imports, adding strength to the biofuel narrative. The market remains headline-driven, with resistance at the 200 day moving average continuing to cap any rallies.
• Crude oil extended losses early in the week, briefly dipping to the lowest levels since February before finding limited recovery. News of a ceasefire in Gaza initially pressured prices, while the IEA’s revised outlook—lifting 2025 supply growth to 3 million bpd but trimming demand forecasts—added further weight. Later sessions steadied as speculative selling slowed, but sentiment remains fragile, with charts still pointing to a downward trend until fresh bullish catalysts emerge.
• Canola markets tracked the wider oilseed complex, swinging between follow-through selling and technical buying. Early-week declines gave way to stronger sessions as commercial and speculative buyers stepped in, helping prices challenge the upper edge of the four-month downtrend channel. Farmer selling increased on rallies, highlighting good liquidity on any strength. A sustained close above resistance would be needed to confirm a breakout and open the door to further upside momentum.
• MATIF rapeseed mirrored outside market weakness for much of the week, pressured by crude and currency. Support from poor Ukrainian sunflower yields limited losses, though the euro’s strength continued to cap advances. Prices briefly tested key trendline resistance before retreating, suggesting the market remains rangebound. In USD terms, volatility has been minimal, with a $5 range on a closing basis, reinforcing that currency remains a key driver. A break above last Thursday’s highs would be required to shift the tone bullishly.
  
  

Outlook
Oilseeds are likely to remain headline-driven into next week, with US–China developments and macro sentiment continuing to dictate direction. Crude oil’s stabilisation could lend mild support, but without fresh demand or currency help, rallies may remain short-lived. MATIF rapeseed and Canola both sit near pivotal resistance—how they close in early sessions next week will determine whether recent strength marks a short-term bounce or the start of a more constructive phase.

Oats

Low demand and low prices are resulting in a lack of trade activity from both buyers and sellers.

Key Factors:

• The EU milling market is entering into its tendering period where millers look to secure business for the forthcoming year. Once sales are secured buyers will look to come into the market to secure supplies to satisfy demand.
• Low prices are resulting in a lack of farmer selling across the whole of the EU and this could see prices rise should demand kicks in if fresh sales can be made by the millers.

• EU milling oat prices are competitively priced into 3^rd country markets, and this could see a large proportion of the exportable surplus exit the EU market and tighten the balance sheet.
• Here in the UK buyers of milling oats remain relaxed and expect to see a regular supply of oats for them to buy on a hand to mouth basis. But with a weak £/€ we could see a pickup in export interest and this could support prices.
• Current export pace from the UK is up 600% vs last year with nearly 10kmt shipped as of 22^nd Sept’25, which is a good start, but plenty more to do.
  
  

Outlook
Low prices continue to discourage farmer selling of both old and new crop positions and this could support prices in due course.

Pulses

This week saw a continuation of the recent trend in pulse markets, to be summarised into limited activity and subdued demand. The focus remains on Australia’s upcoming new crop harvest, which is shaping market sentiment. The human consumption market remains particularly quiet, buyers anticipating the arrival of Australian beans in the not too distant future. Currency not helping UK sellers in driving any nearby demand.

Key Factors:

• Australia’s forthcoming harvest continues to dominate discussions in the market and once quality is known then we may see a restructure in prices.
• Looking closer at the domestic feed beans remain uncompetitive into the ration compared to alternatives.  At current price levels, beans are approximately £30/mt too expensive to attract interest beyond core poultry feed rations, leaving fresh feed demand absent.
• The pea market has been relatively subdued this week, with consumer demand limited. Many industry participants were attending a major trade event, contributing to the quieter market. While global feed values have been trading sideways, this does not necessarily signal the end of the downward trend in prices.
• There is strong interest in buyback contracts for 2026. Farmers are encouraged to contact their farm trader for more information on these opportunities.
  
  

Outlook
The anticipated large Australian crop continues to exert downward pressure on bean markets. While another week of bearish GBP price action has provided some support, it is still insufficient to stimulate fresh export buying. Cheaper feed alternatives remain a significant barrier to increased bean usage in the feed sector. As a result, beans still face challenges in securing a more prominent role in feed formulations.For further insights or updates, reach out to your farm trader.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

With sugar beet and potatoes now being lifted, many growers are turning their attention to later drilled winter wheat. Choosing the right variety for this slot is crucial, with key considerations including the latest safe sowing date (as listed on the AHDB Recommended List), strong vigour, and good tillering ability to compensate for shortened growing time.

Key Factors:

• LG Beowulf – A highly versatile variety that performs well across diverse conditions. LG Beowulf offers a long drilling window, making it well suited for later sowing.
• Skyfall – Known for its excellent flexibility, Skyfall has one of the latest safe sowing dates on the AHDB Recommended List — the end of February. Its low vernalisation requirement makes it ideal for late drilling.
• SY Cheer – With a safe sowing window until the end of January, SY Cheer is a strong option for late drilling. It boasts robust agronomics and an excellent disease resistance package, making it a reliable all-rounder.
• Seed availability is tightening across several popular varieties. Growers still looking to finalise their variety choice for this autumn are advised to secure supply as soon as possible to avoid disappointment.
• Winter beans – For those considering break crops, Vespa winter beans remain a dependable on-farm choice, offering consistent performance and strong yield potential. Seed is currently available for fast delivery.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, disease resistance and strong agronomic traits will continue to be key drivers in variety selection. Varieties with extended drilling flexibility, like the options above, will be especially valuable.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices retreat on strong inventories; US futures ease amid mild weather and robust supply. 

Key Factors: 

• European gas futures slipped below €32/MWh after touching a six-week high, with EU storage at 82.9% of capacity. Italy 93%, France 92.5%, and Germany 76.2%. 
• Colder weather forecasts for mid-October could lift heating demand, but strong storage buffers limit upside risk. 
• Russian strikes on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure have revived supply concerns, though no direct impact on EU flows has been reported. 
• Long term, LNG capacity is projected to grow 60% by 2030, half from the US, raising fears of oversupply and lower prices globally. 
• US futures fell to ~$3.05/MMBtu on warm weather forecasts and healthy inventories 4% above the five-year average. 
• US gas output dipped to 106.4 bcfd in October from September’s 107.4, while LNG feedgas flows rose to 16.3 bcfd, hitting a six-month high as Cove Point restarted. 
  
  

Outlook
Europe’s comfortable storage levels should keep prices steady near term, with only cold snaps or major geopolitical shocks posing upside risk. In the US, mild temperatures and ample supply will likely cap gains despite stronger LNG flows. 

Ammonia

Prices remain firm amid tight supply and prolonged outages. 

Key Factors:

• Global ammonia markets are supported by persistent supply constraints on both sides of the Suez. 
• Ma’aden’s MPC plant in Saudi Arabia remains offline, with the outage now expected to extend through December, tightening regional availability. 
• Production issues and gas-related curtailments continue to limit output in Egypt and Trinidad, while North African material remains well sold. 
• Buyers in Asia and Europe are securing cargoes early, anticipating further price firmness into late Q4. 
  
  

Outlook
With limited new supply expected before year-end and ongoing outages, ammonia prices are likely to remain firm to higher through November, especially east of Suez where availability is most constrained. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Nitrates remain weak; sulphates gain modest support from regional demand. 

Key Factors: 

• Nitrates markets continue to soften as rising inventories meet sluggish demand across Europe and the UK. 
• Poor fertilizer affordability and muted farm-level purchasing keep sentiment bearish into mid-October. 
• Sulphates are seeing selective support from renewed buying in Brazil and Southeast Asia as importers return to the market. 
• However, high Chinese export availability continues to limit any meaningful upside in sulphate pricing. 
  
  

Outlook
Nitrate prices are likely to edge lower through October absent a demand recovery, while sulphates may hold steady short term, supported by South American and Asian activity but capped by Chinese oversupply. 

Urea

Market awaits India’s RCF tender outcome as global sentiment hinges on pricing direction; NOLA softens slightly, Middle East activity picks up. 

Key Factors: 

• India: RCF’s 15 October tender drew 25 offers totalling 3.66 Mt against a target of 2 Mt for shipment by 10 December, 1.70 Mt offered to the east coast and 1.95 Mt to the west. 
  This strong response highlights ample global availability, though market attention now turns to the lowest offer (L1) expected within 24 hours, which will likely dictate short-term direction across global benchmarks. 
• Middle East: Oman’s SIUCI reportedly sold three 40,000 t granular cargoes in the high $380s/t FOB, consistent with earlier weeks. QatarEnergy meanwhile sold 45,000 t to Aramco at $410/t FOB, a level unexpectedly high and near the anticipated Indian L1, suggesting sellers remain firm despite softer sentiment elsewhere. 
• US NOLA: Trading remains thin; an October barge last changed hands at $377/st FOB on 14 October, down slightly from $380–$390/st earlier in the month as participants pause ahead of India’s price reveal. 
• Market participants globally, are watching India closely, with the outcome likely to set the tone for Q4 pricing and sentiment across urea and related nitrogen products. 
  
  

Outlook
If RCF secures large volumes at a competitive price, it could cement a short-term floor and spark modest restocking elsewhere. Conversely, higher-than-expected Indian prices could firm markets temporarily, especially given limited Middle Eastern supply for November. 

Phosphates

Prices continue to drift lower, with tender activity reinforcing bearish sentiment despite tightening Chinese export timelines. 

Key Factors: 

• Global DAP and MAP prices have edged lower again, extending recent declines amid weak demand and constrained affordability. 
• MAP remains under heavier pressure than DAP, as slower offtake in Brazil and the US continues to weigh on sentiment. 
• In Ethiopia, offers submitted in the 13 October DAP tender were sharply below those in the EABC’s previously scrapped session, reflecting a further softening in producer sentiment. 
• The postponed Bangladesh tender has also drawn lower FOB indications than current market levels, reinforcing the global downward trajectory. 
• Meanwhile, China’s exporters are racing to conclude shipments ahead of the end-October inspection cutoff and 15 October customs clearance deadline, after which the country is expected to effectively exit the export market for the rest of the year. 
• Despite this, the limited buying appetite from major importers means the market may continue easing through Q4. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate prices are expected to trend lower into November, though the pace of decline should moderate as Chinese export availability winds down. Weak demand remains the primary driver, while logistical tightness may provide only temporary support in late Q4. 

Potash

Prices broadly steady but showing early signs of softening at the top end of the market. 

Key Factors: 

• Global MOP prices have been relatively stable in recent weeks, though signs of weakness are appearing in Brazil and Southeast Asia, where sellers at the upper end of the price range are beginning to make concessions. 
• In Brazil, sentiment has turned slightly bearish following the completion of key import programs and a seasonal lull in soybean-related demand. 
• Southeast Asian markets, while still supported by palm oil-driven demand, are also expected to see mild downward adjustments in the coming weeks as buyers resist current offer levels.
•  However, producer and trader confidence in the region was boosted following last week’s IFA Crossroads conference, where sentiment leaned toward cautious optimism on stabilising prices into late Q4. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash prices are expected to remain broadly steady with a soft bias, particularly in Brazil and Southeast Asia. While confidence has improved slightly among producers, persistent demand weakness and ample supply may cap any near-term upside. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1520	1.3426	1.1650

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct25	134-145	147-167	200-206	395-405