Market Reports

Wheat

Wheat markets rallied sharply amid intensifying geopolitical tensions, weather risks, and tightening supply prospects, before turning volatile into month-end. Energy-led inflation and disrupted trade flows underpinned sentiment, while US crop concerns and global production downgrades offset weak export competitiveness, leaving broader grain markets mixed but supported.

Key Factors:

• Wheat prices surged to multi-month and contract highs, driven by drought across US Plains, poor crop ratings (~30% good/excellent), and speculative buying, with Kansas futures briefly exceeding $7/bu before late volatility emerged.
• Geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, pushed crude oil to multi-year highs, reinforcing inflationary pressures and supporting agricultural commodities via higher input and freight costs.
• Global supply prospects tightened, with lower production forecasts for Canada and Australia, reduced Argentine planting, and delayed spring wheat sowing in Russia and Kazakhstan raising concerns over 2026 availability.
• Trade flows shifted notably, with US wheat remaining uncompetitive, prompting unusual import patterns and stronger reliance on EU and Black Sea origins, while steady demand through tenders (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Egypt) provided support.
• European markets showed relative resilience, supported by tighter old-crop balances and weather concerns in northern regions, though strong crop conditions in France and weak demand limited upside, while UK markets were driven by technical factors and tight nearby supply.
  
  

Outlook
Wheat markets remain highly sensitive to weather and geopolitics, with volatility likely to persist. While tightening global supply and elevated energy costs provide underlying support, improved weather or demand rationing could cap rallies. Attention will focus on Northern Hemisphere yields, Black Sea exports, and macroeconomic risks shaping commodity flows.

Malting Barley

Markets have started to turn a corner in their perceived direction. On paper there is ample supply of malting barley in Europe, however, with most spring crops in their early stages of development there is much that can go wrong. A severe production issue will trigger a rush of buying interest as customers look to manage their risk. Rallies in the wider grains markets are also adding underlying support to barley prices.

Key Factors:

• Extended dry weather and a lack of rainfall have increased the area of exceptionally dry soils in large parts of England.
• Strong feed barley procurement by China has inflated French barley prices and with it raised the underlying value of barley (“rising tide effects all boats”)
• Low spring barley planted area in the UK gives minimal wriggle room should there be a production failure.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, malting barley markets have bounced from the lows and are on the up thanks to zero farmer selling appetite. Medium to long term it is all still up in the air as production will be determined by the weather and whether the buyers act before there is a weight of selling pressure.

Feed Barley

Old crop supply is dwindling although demand remains similarly slow. Tightening new crop supply concerns support the market despite limited export competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• Once again very thin activity on the old crop as on farm stocks continue to wind down.
• Export markets for old crop have not been calculating over the last couple of weeks as some leftover Danish malting barley hit the feed market. However, new crop malting FOB markets in Denmark have firmed which has pulled this supply away, and the UK is now cheapest old crop replacement to Ireland as a result. Demand however remains sluggish.
• Concerns continue to grow around new crop, with persistent dry conditions raising yield flags for the spring crop. This is keeping basis supported, and with higher futures, flat prices are higher week on week.
• New crop export markets are not calculating, and domestic basis is looking historically unattractive from a feed compound perspective, so if we see a pickup in farmer selling there could be some downside.
  
  

Outlook
We see limited downside for old crop prices given tightening stocks, while new crop remains driven by broader macro factors; the barley–wheat spread is unlikely to weaken significantly until farmer selling picks up, with ongoing dry conditions expected to provide continued support.

Rapeseed

Ag markets firmed overall this week, with strength driven largely by energy markets and knock-on support into the oilseed complex. Crude oil rallied sharply amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, underpinning veg oil values and broader sentiment. Soybeans found support from shifting trade flows and biofuel narratives, while canola and rapeseed broke key technical levels. Tight nearby supply in Europe and improving crush margins in Canada added to the bullish tone, although volatility remains elevated.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans pushed higher through the week, supported by a combination of demand shifts and external market strength. 2-3 Argentine meal cargoes were rejected by the EU which introduced uncertainty into global protein flows, with the market pricing in potential demand switching toward US origin. This lent support particularly to meal early in the week, although gains faded as logistical solutions emerged. Soy oil remained the standout, tracking strength in crude and biofuel rhetoric, helping beans test contract highs. From a technical perspective, the market is now probing resistance levels last seen in mid-2024, with momentum indicators turning positive. However, the rally appears increasingly headline-driven, leaving futures susceptible to sharp corrections if fundamentals stabilise.
• Crude oil was the dominant driver this week, posting significant gains as geopolitical tensions continued to disrupt confidence in supply flows. The market added over $10 in a single session, reflecting a strong risk premium being built into prices. While no definitive supply shock has materialised, the trade is positioning defensively, with limited expectation of near-term resolution. This has created a firm underlying bid across the energy complex, feeding directly into veg oil markets. Technically, crude has broken out of its recent range, triggering fund buying and short covering. Until there is clearer direction on supply channels, volatility is likely to remain high, with macro headlines continuing to dictate price action.
• Canola was a key outperformer, breaking convincingly above overhead resistance after several failed attempts. Early week hesitation linked to improved planting conditions quickly gave way to strong upside momentum, driven by both external support and internal fundamentals. Expanding crush capacity and strong processing margins continue to tighten commercial stocks, reinforcing the bullish structure. The breakout triggered a wave of technical buying and short covering, pushing prices to fresh highs in line with last year’s levels. From a chart perspective, the market has shifted into a bullish trend, although the speed of the move raises the risk of near-term consolidation. Sustaining levels above former resistance will be critical to maintain confidence.
• MATIF rapeseed followed a similar trajectory, with a strong technical breakout supported by tight nearby supply. The May contract squeeze and widening spreads highlighted ongoing scarcity in old crop, with participants caught short forced to cover at elevated levels. This has reinforced the perception of a tighter-than-expected carryout into new crop. The August contract has now pushed through key resistance, surpassing last summer’s highs and approaching levels seen earlier this year. Momentum indicators suggest the market is becoming overbought, but the absence of immediate bearish catalysts keeps the tone supportive. Volatility remains high, particularly around expiry dynamics and spread positioning.
  
  

Outlook
The outlook remains broadly supportive across the complex, with energy markets continuing to provide a firm underlying bid. Oilseeds are likely to remain sensitive to macro developments, particularly in crude, while also balancing shifting trade flows and seasonal progress. Technically, many markets have entered overbought territory following recent breakouts, suggesting a period of consolidation or corrective activity is possible.

Oats

The oat market is currently stuck in this sentiment of ample supply and therefore zero intent of consumers to pay up to stimulate some selling. Spring plantings are now complete, and all eyes are on the weather maps in the key exporting nations.

Key Factors:

• Limited buying pressure is helping to prevent any real nearby price rally; however, this is offset by minimal farmer selling therefore prices remain largely unchanged.
• Exceptionally low rainfall in large areas of the UK and Europe is raising concerns about production prospects. Spain being the only real exception to this.
• Strong feed barley prices are making oats look cheap and this is supporting a floor for oat prices into the feed market.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, old crop prices remain reluctant to rally, however if these drought conditions continue, suppliers will look to store supplies to see what happens in the coming months.

Pulses

As we move through the latter part of April, growing conditions continue to lean supportive for new crop pulse development. Early field feedback points to crops establishing well and generally presenting in good condition. However, an increase in rainfall would be welcome to sustain this momentum, which would lead to overall conditions remain encouraging. Buyer engagement for new crop is beginning to build gradually, while the availability of old crop is tightening slightly as the season draws on. Notably, pulse markets continue to show little direct reaction to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, maintaining their typically independent course.

Key Factors:

• Market activity has remained relatively measured, particularly for old crop, with limited volumes changing hands. That said, values have edged firmer over recent days as the marketing year nears its close. Old crop beans continue to command a premium – currently in the region of £30–35 per tonne – over competing protein sources such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal for forward delivery.
• Fundamentally, supply and demand appear well aligned, which is helping the market hold a steady footing without significant volatility. Meanwhile, the favourable outlook for new crop production is lending a degree of cautious optimism that may become more influential as crop development progresses.
• The global pea market is largely holding steady. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US & Iran conflict and anti-dumping measures continues to shape trade flows and dampen market confidence. Buyers remain cautious and are only buying in spot positions or short-term purchases over forward contracts. While prices are mostly stable, it will be interesting to see where prices go as we head towards the new season especially given the lingering uncertainty around supply and logistics.
• In the UK, market activity is quiet. Most buyers have sufficient coverage for the short term, with only limited gaps expected before the arrival of the new crop. Planting is complete, whilst we received some rain, additional rainfall would be beneficial. From here, much depends on weather conditions. For those with peas in the ground, our latest round-up from Keith Costello is available to read.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, supported by well-established crops and balanced supply-demand dynamics. Additional rainfall will be key to sustaining yield potential. As new crop development progresses, buyer engagement should gradually strengthen, though caution may persist amid global trade uncertainties. With old crop supplies tightening and premiums holding firm, market direction will increasingly hinge on weather conditions and early indications of new season output.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

With many thoughts now turning to rotational planning and seed requirements for the autumn, now is a great time to discuss seed options with your Farm Trader. 

Key Factors:

• ADM are pleased to support OSR growers with our internal establishment scheme. Available on a selection of our strongest varieties to help manage risk and achieve the highest possible output.
• Sparkler winter wheat looks like a strong option for this autumn with the joint highest septoria tritici resistance rating across the group 4 feeds. Helping secure yields through robust genetics and strong disease resistance. 
• Maize demand remains strong. Whether you are growing for grain, forage or AD, our portfolio includes a wide range of maturities to ensure the right fit for your requirements.
• Attention is also turning towards grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and a broad selection of small seeds, as plans develop for the season ahead.
  
  

Outlook
With strong demand across several crops and availability already tightening across some new autumn varieties, we recommend speaking with your Farm Trader soon to secure the right options for your rotation.

Fertiliser

Ammonia

Upward pressure persists as new outages tighten an already constrained global balance.

Key Factors:

• Ammonia benchmarks are expected to remain under upward pressure, with supply constraints continuing across both basins.
• In Southeast Asia, the upcoming PT ESSA PAU turnaround from 6 May will further reduce available supply, tightening an already stretched market.
• Petronas output remains offline with no confirmed restart timeline, removing another key source of regional availability.
• East of Suez markets continue to face limited supply options, with demand gradually recovering and competing for fewer prompt tonnes.
• In the Atlantic basin, supply remains tight, with limited North African availability being absorbed by strong Northwest European demand.
• European buyers continue to draw in available tonnes to cover requirements, preventing any meaningful easing in pricing.
• The cumulative impact of maintenance, outages and earlier geopolitical disruption continues to restrict global supply flexibility.
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia markets remain structurally tight with a firm upward bias. With further supply reductions expected in Southeast Asia and continued strength in Atlantic demand, prices are likely to remain supported in the near term. Any easing will depend on the return of key production units and improved supply availability, neither of which appears imminent.

Nitrates and Sulphates

Market hits near term ceiling as seasonal demand fades, with divergence emerging across products.

Key Factors:

• Prices across nitrates appear to have reached a near term ceiling as demand in Eurasia eases toward the end of the application season.
• In Europe, new season pricing discussions are meeting resistance, with buyers unwilling to commit at current elevated levels.
• Demand softness is being reinforced by increased consideration of urea substitution for second applications, particularly were economics favour nitrogen flexibility.
• This substitution dynamic is acting as a cap on further nitrate price upside despite still elevated input costs.
• Ammonium sulphate markets are showing a more mixed picture. Chinese standard grade material remains firm, supported by strong underlying demand.
• In contrast, granular sulphate markets are facing affordability pressure, particularly in Brazil where buyers are becoming increasingly price sensitive.
• The divergence between standard and granular grades reflects differing demand profiles and cost sensitivity across regions.
  
  

Outlook
Nitrate markets are expected to remain broadly stable to slightly softer in the near term as seasonal demand fades and buyer resistance increases. Upside appears limited unless nitrogen markets reaccelerate. Sulphates will remain mixed, with strength in Asia offset by affordability driven weakness in Brazil and other price sensitive markets.

Urea

India demand continues to anchor the market, with Middle East disruption keeping global supply tight.

Key Factors:

• Last week’s IPL tender, securing 2.5 Mt for shipment through mid June, continues to underpin global urea pricing and absorb available supply.
• The scale of Indian demand is effectively tightening the global balance through Q2, limiting availability across other key import regions.
• Supply disruption remains the dominant driver, with transit via the Strait of Hormuz still effectively constrained.
• Around 1 Mt of urea remains stranded west of the Strait in the Arab Gulf, preventing normal flow into global markets.
• This stranded volume represents a significant portion of prompt supply and is maintaining a structural short position in the market.
• With limited alternative supply sources able to fully replace Middle East volumes, competition for available tonnes remains elevated.
• Market participants continue to focus on geopolitical developments, with any change in logistics expected to have an immediate impact on pricing direction.
  
  

Outlook
Urea markets are expected to remain tight and well supported through much of Q2. Indian demand combined with restricted Middle East supply is maintaining upward pressure on prices. Any meaningful easing will depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of stranded volumes, though timing and scale remain uncertain.

Phosphates

Tightening supply and feedstock constraints continue to push prices higher despite clear affordability limits.

Key Factors:

• Phosphate availability is tightening further as restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt both finished fertiliser flows and key raw materials, particularly sulphur.
• Feedstock pressure is now a central driver, with constrained sulphur availability limiting production capacity across multiple regions.
• China’s export outlook for 2026 is becoming increasingly pessimistic, with restrictions likely to persist and significantly reduce global supply.
• Saudi exports remain limited due to ongoing logistical constraints, removing a key source of volume from the global market.
• Other major producers are also facing constraints, largely linked to feedstock shortages rather than direct production issues.
• The cumulative impact is a structurally tight global supply picture, reinforcing seller control over pricing.
• Prices are expected to continue rising as buyers compete for limited tonnes, particularly ahead of key application windows.
• Affordability is now a major counterforce, with elevated fertiliser costs beginning to outpace crop economics and drive demand destruction.
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets remain firmly bullish in the near term, driven by tightening supply and ongoing feedstock constraints. However, demand destruction is becoming increasingly visible and will act as a limiting factor on further upside. The balance between constrained supply and weakening affordability will define price direction over the coming months.

Potash

Steady price gains continue as demand holds firm and inland costs offset easing freight.

Key Factors:

• Potash prices have moved higher across key regions including US NOLA, Brazil and Southeast Asia, supported by stronger underlying sales activity.
• Brazil remains a leading driver, with continued restocking and seasonal demand underpinning price strength.
• Southeast Asia is also firming, with improving agricultural economics and active buying supporting higher price levels.
• While freight rates are beginning to ease, this has not translated into softer pricing as inland logistics and distribution costs continue to rise.
• Cost inflation within domestic supply chains, particularly in Brazil and Southeast Asia, is allowing suppliers to maintain upward pricing pressure.
• Supplier sentiment remains firmly bullish, with confidence that demand will continue to absorb incremental price increases.
• The US market is participating in the move higher, though pricing remains more balanced relative to other regions.
  
  

Outlook
Potash markets are expected to continue trending gradually higher in the near term. Easing freight provides some relief but rising inland costs and sustained demand are keeping upward pressure on prices. The market remains structurally balanced, with incremental gains likely rather than sharp moves.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1537	1.3470	1.1675

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Apr26	153-163	178-190	205-215	480-490