Thursday 27 November 2025

Wheat

Global grain markets remain under pressure despite pockets of technical recovery, as abundant supply, aggressive Black Sea competition and sluggish export flow cap rallies. Soybeans and corn show firmer undertones on renewed Chinese demand and improved US technicals, while wheat continues to track lower across regions. Currency strength in Europe further undermines competitiveness.

Key Factors:

• Upward revisions to global grain output and heavier stock projections from the IGC continue to anchor sentiment, with Southern Hemisphere crops and rising Russian production estimates reinforcing a broadly bearish supply backdrop.
• Strong corn and soybean export demand in the US contrasts with persistent technical weakness in wheat. Soybeans have stabilised on signs of Chinese buying despite Brazil’s price advantage, while corn shows constructive momentum as futures reclaim key moving averages.
• Closer to home, MATIF wheat repeatedly tests contract lows, squeezed by the stronger euro and aggressive Black Sea offers. Thin farmer selling and misaligned interior–export pricing keeps physical markets disjointed, with EU exports trailing USDA targets and swelling stocks likely.
• Here in the UK, London wheat continues to drift to fresh lows amid subdued trading, reduced carries and a focus on near-term logistics. Post-budget fiscal uncertainty and sterling’s fragility offer little support, with farmer selling likely to accelerate into January.
• Improved US–China relations and tentative Ukraine–Russia peace signals are key watchpoints on the geopolitical front. South American weather is mostly favourable but uneven; Brazil’s north and Argentina’s variability remain risks. US winter storms and mixed global precipitation trends add further volatility.
  
  

Outlook
Short-term sentiment leans cautiously firmer for soybeans and corn on technical recovery and export interest, but wheat faces continued downside risk amid ample supply and intense Black Sea competition. Currency strength in Europe may prolong export headwinds, while geopolitics and South American weather hold potential to reshape market direction into year-end.

Malting Barley

Old crop markets remain lacklustre, although new crop is starting to trade as brewers start to put cover on for next year.

Key Factors:

• Malting barley markets are once again slow, with little activity to report. Crop-25 values are holding steady, once again supported by firmer feed values.
• Export business is not taking place as FOB markets remain discounted to feed, which is particularly strong in the South.
• Crop-26 is a premium to crop-25 with a lower supply outlook on falling spring acres, lending a supportive longer-term tone. Some business has been done here over the last week as brewers start to build a new crop book. It seems that sellers are happy to engage, despite the smaller crop forecast.
  
  

Outlook
Whilst demand remains slow it is tricky to see a reason for any significant upside in the short term, however longer term, alongside a supported feed market, downside looks limited and there is the opportunity for a late season squeeze if availability of quality barley runs dry.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are supported by recent export demand and solid domestic usage, but stronger sterling, higher freight costs, and cheaper German supply are likely to cap export opportunities into the New Year.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets remain supported on the much needed recent export demand from shorts in the Netherlands. Fresh business however is being limited by firming GBP and freight, also shorts in the Dutch market are once again able to cover their requirements in Germany which is cheaper than the UK currently. With a steep inverse from Dec-Jan in NL, we don’t expect this better export demand to hang around long into the New Year.
• Domestic demand is performing well still, as feed barley maintains favourable pricing into feed rations, meanwhile colder temperatures support mill offtakes.
  
  

Outlook
We anticipate sideways to slightly positive price action within the domestic market as demand remains favourable, however bids on the East Coast may well drop away heading into the New Year.

Rapeseed

A mostly mixed but gradually firmer week across ag commodities, with soybeans again leading sentiment as China’s steady buying helped the complex recover from early dips. Crude oil swung in a choppy sideways pattern, alternating between peace-deal headlines and tightening stock data. Canadian canola held trendline support with help from sluggish farm deliveries, while MATIF rapeseed consolidated in existing range. A softer USD later in the week added broad support across US markets, helping stabilise into the Thanksgiving break.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans have seen a choppy trade, China has confirmed purchases of around ten US cargoes though purchasing pace remains slow against the 12 mmt expected, though ongoing political messaging around a 12 mmt commitment kept a bid under the market. Fresh export flashes acted as “less bearish” rather than bullish catalysts as the trade now anticipates regular sales. Technical action was constructive, with prices holding key support and benefitting from a sharp pullback in the USD later in the week. Argentine planting delays due to earlier rains and concerns over freezing temperatures slowing US crush added further underlying support.
• Energy markets remained range-bound, fluctuating on geopolitical updates. Early-week pressure stemmed from chatter of progress toward a Ukraine peace framework, though this was tempered by Russia’s renewed attacks and ongoing uncertainty around timelines. Later in the week, crude clawed higher again after API reported a 1.86 million-barrel stock draw, reinforcing the lower end of the technical range. With OPEC+ signalling no expected changes to Q1 quotas at this weekend’s meeting, traders kept to sideways trade, and volatility remained contained.
• ICE canola spent the week oscillating within a well-defined (albeit shallow) uptrend, repeatedly finding support at trendline levels despite sluggish farmer selling. Deliveries remain behind the seasonal norm—only 25% of the crop delivered versus typical 30–35%—keeping commercials leaning on futures to incentivise movement. Record combined crush/export disposals of 500,000 mt last week added a bullish undertone, while commercial stocks of 1.55 mmt sit comfortably within average ranges for November. With basis seasonally weak, any upward momentum must continue to come from the board.
• Rapeseed held a choppy but mildly supportive tone, initially backing off overhead resistance near €488 before recovering from the 200-day moving average mid-week. Strong EU crush margins and supportive fundamentals persist, but price action remains confined to a €470–€485 range, with sellers active near the top end. Talk of tighter future sunflower seed supply—after Ukrainian groups projected a 25/26 sunflower crop below 10.5 mmt—offered background support. Confirmation of a delay to EUDR was already expected so didn’t have a significant impact, and did bring some clarity to the trade.
  
  

Outlook
Soybeans should stay supported by ongoing Chinese demand and a softer USD, though export pace and Argentine planting weather remain key watchpoints. Crude oil is likely to maintain choppy range-bound trade ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and any movement on the Ukraine peace framework. Canadian canola retains a firm undertone while farmer deliveries lag, but upside will still need futures-led momentum. MATIF rapeseed may require a fresh catalyst to break convincingly above resistance.

Oats

Oat markets remain lack luster with neither buyers nor sellers looking to push for a trade.

Key Factors:

• European oat millers remain well covered for nearby positions and this is giving them an ability to be relaxed about paying up to cover short positions.
• Demand into 3^rd country has materialised over the last few weeks and this could start adding support to European markets if EU millers need to cover Q1 positions.

• Farmer selling continues to be very poor with the majority hoping for higher prices in the new year. Values are now well below last year’s levels and cost of production, therefore the incentive to sell is not there.
• Demand into Turkey is currently adding some support to nearby milling markets and given the strong flow of oats from Russia to China we could see Turkey be a buyer for the coming months.
• Feed oat demand in Europe remains poor although some trades are taking place as merchants look to offload oats that are not suitable for the human consumption market. Prices however, remain the same as they were in September. 
• Here in the UK farmer selling remains poor and with the festive season virtually upon us we anticipate fresh sales to start more in the new year.
• Feed compounders continue to show interest in oats given the large discount to other feed grains and fibres.
• New crop oat prospects in the UK could see a reduced planted area as most anecdotal reports are suggesting farmers desire to plant wheat wherever they can.
  
  

Outlook
In summary, the lack of farmer selling could start to support prices as buyers look to cover Q1 positions.

Pulses

Another quiet week for pulses, with the focus starting to drift towards the new year. Consumers remain generally disengaged and show little interest, with the weight of competing origins and alternative commodities offering little impetus to move. Their ongoing inability to compete effectively in domestic feed formulations continues to suppress bean demand, with no meaningful improvement expected in the near term. Interest from the human-consumption sector also remains muted as the market waits for the arrival of Australia’s new crop.

Key Factors:

• Beans have seen few friends from the feed sector this week, with little reported trade. Aside from the odd December load trading against trade shorts, the market has been totally devoid of activity. Feed bean values remain c. £25/mt away from competing against other feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal, limiting their general attractiveness. Feed demand remains consistently flat, with little fresh interest.
• The Australian new crop harvest has continued to gather pace over the last week, with new crop bulk exports likely to start imminently. With a big crop forecast, beans are starting to feature in the domestic diets as well, although they are still likely to push big volumes into the export markets. North African buyers continue to look to Australian origin beans with excitement, as both the pricing and quality continue to look attractive.
• Pea market sentiment remains subdued, with limited trading activity as both buyers and sellers hold firm on price expectations. Despite some seasonal logistical improvements, global pulse markets trades sideways this week, and UK domestic demand continues to lag, weighed down by cautious feed consumers and slow export interest.
• Pea Buyback contract availability is now extremely limited, as most processors and merchants have already secured their volumes for the 2026 crop. New contract opportunities are scarce, and any remaining offers are largely focused on niche varieties or specific quality parameters.
  
  

Outlook
Bean demand is stagnant, with minimal feed trade and prices still uncompetitive. Australia’s new-crop harvest is advancing, bulk exports imminent, and North African buyers showing strong interest in the Southern Hemisphere crop. Pea markets remain stalled amid weak global demand, while updated buyback contracts leave little remaining space for growers yet to book acreage.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As we approach the end of 2025, many growers are now turning attention to spring 2026 cropping and their seed requirements.  Making the right choices now is essential for setting up the 2026 spring crop for a productive and resilient growing season. Beyond simply choosing varieties with strong yield potential, growers are increasingly prioritising those that align with evolving market specifications and end-user demand.

Key Factors:

• Spring Barley: Laureate is set to continue its dominance into Spring 2026, maintaining its status as the go to variety for both malting and brewing markets due to its proven reliability and quality. Our broader portfolio also includes RGT Planet, Skyway and CB Score. RGT Planet remains a popular for brewing contracts, offering excellent grain uniformity and consistency across variable conditions. Skyway and CB Score bring strong agronomic packages, giving growers robust options in challenging conditions.
• Spring Wheat: For Group 1 milling, Ladum retains its position as our leading choice, combining competitive yields with a dependable disease resistance profile. For growers looking at Group 2 opportunities, Alicium continues to impress with its consistent protein, exceptional grain quality, and reliable Hagberg, making it well-suited to a wide range of requirements.
• Spring Oats: Our spring oat line up, Merlin, WPB Isabel and the newcomer Caledon, offers solid choice and flexibility for growers. Merlin is seeing growing interest thanks to its strong yield potential, low screenings, and dependable specific weight, making it a versatile option for growers targeting milling markets.
• Spring Beans: Lynx remains a standout choice within pulses, valued for its dependable yields, excellent standing ability and proven on-farm consistency. Its reliability across different soil types keeps it a trusted variety for those looking to strengthen their rotations.
• Peas: Our pea portfolio includes Marrowfats (Kabuki and Adder), Large Blues (Daytona and Butterfly), and Yellows (Concerto), providing growers with a strong range of options to suit different situations and market requirements. Availability on buyback contracts remains tight, so early commitment is advised. For spring 2026 drilling, all pea seed will be supplied with Nuello iN as standard. Supported by robust data from Syngenta, this treatment promotes more even establishment, improved plant health, and the potential for higher yields, helping to enhance overall crop performance and on-farm profitability.

• Maize: Whether forage, biogas, or grain production, we offer a comprehensive maize portfolio covering a full range of maturities. This ensures that there is a variety suited to every system, from early maturing options for shorter growing seasons to high-energy types designed to maximise feed value and output.
  
  

Outlook
As we move towards Spring 2026, aligning seed choice with both agronomic priorities and market expectations will be key to securing performance and profitability. With increasing pressure from weather variability and end-market standards, investing in well-proven genetics, supported by the right seed treatments, remains one of the most effective ways to build resilience into next season’s cropping plan.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices hit new lows on peace talk optimism; US supported by colder weather and strong LNG exports. 

Key Factors: 

• European gas futures fell below €29.5/MWh, the lowest since May 2024, after reports that Ukraine has agreed to terms of a revised peace plan, though negotiations remain incomplete, and Russia’s final position is unclear. 
• Diplomatic activity in Geneva and Abu Dhabi continues, with Zelenskiy confirming ongoing discussions with the US. A credible peace framework would materially alter global energy flows, especially ahead of major LNG capacity expansions in 2025. 
• In the US, natural gas futures climbed back toward $4.6/MMBtu as colder forecasts through 10.
• Production remains extremely strong: output in the Lower 48 has averaged 109.7 bcfd in November, breaking all prior monthly records and keeping stock levels around 5% above the seasonal norm despite strong exports. 
  
  

Outlook
European prices should stay soft unless peace-talk momentum falters or a colder-than-expected December materialises. In the US, colder weather and record LNG pull will keep the market supported, though unprecedented production levels continue to cap sustained upside. 

Ammonia

Market remains extremely tight into year-end despite early signs of incremental supply relief. 

Key Factors: 

• Global ammonia availability remains severely constrained, with little to no spot supply emerging from the Middle East or Trinidad. Without fresh tonnage, prices are expected to remain elevated. 
• Buyers continue to report no meaningful easing in western markets even as some Q4 supply improvements were anticipated earlier in the quarter. 
• The return of US or Middle Eastern supply remains critical for any near-term correction; Trinidad continues to operate below capacity following earlier outages and curtailed gas availability. 
• Market sentiment improved slightly after confirmation that GCA has entered “start-up” phase, raising expectations that additional product could hit the market before year-end. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices are expected to remain firm to higher through December unless new supply arrives earlier than expected. Any meaningful softening likely requires stable Middle Eastern output, a full restart in Trinidad, or increased US export availability. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

European nitrates steady but slow to clear; sulphates stay under pressure as global demand weakens. 

Key Factors: 

• European nitrates demand remains muted, with buyers gradually digesting higher January AN and CAN offers from Yara, LAT Nitrogen and others. Purchasing remains cautious ahead of CBAM implementation in January. 
• Brazilian AS demand is soft, with higher inland freight costs discouraging additional buying despite lower FOB values. 
• Oversupply from China and slower buying in Southeast Asia continue to drag on sulphate benchmarks globally. 
  
  

Outlook
Nitrates may stabilise at higher levels as European buyers return ahead of spring demand, but upside will depend on clearer purchasing momentum. Sulphates are expected to remain flat-to-soft, with Chinese availability and weak downstream demand keeping pressure on prices. 

Urea

India tender acceptances steady but below target; global values stabilise as market awaits next enquiry. 

Key Factors:

• India’s IPL has so far secured 1.56 Mt of acceptances in its 20 November tender, short of the 2.5 Mt requested,  after countering all participants. 
• Offer volumes were substantial (2.16 Mt ECI, 2.31 Mt WCI), but only some suppliers were willing to match the L1 levels. 
• The shortfall strongly signals the likelihood of another India tender, providing a supportive floor for global prices after recent corrections. 
• US NOLA remains steady, with December barges trading in the $370–373/st FOB range and January dipping slightly to $365/st FOB. February values hold around $372.50/st FOB. 
• Overall sentiment has stabilised as participants await India’s next move, with Middle Eastern and North African producers cautious about offering lower numbers. 
  
  

Outlook
With India still needing significant tonnage ahead of the Rabi season, another tender is widely expected, likely underpinning short-term global urea pricing. NOLA should remain rangebound until clearer direction emerges from India, while FOB producer offers may firm modestly if tender timing tightens. 

Phosphates

Global prices continue to soften as spot demand remains weak. 

Key Factors: 

• Spot demand for both DAP and MAP remains muted across major import regions, extending the downward pressure seen through November. 
• The US removal of reciprocal phosphate import tariffs has accelerated price declines in the domestic market, with buyers holding back in anticipation of further weakness. 
• Despite the current slide, US prices are expected to find support as import enquiries increase domestic supply remains tight and import reliance will grow heading into early 2026. 
• China remains effectively out of the export market again, limiting global availability, but this has not yet been enough to offset the absence of buyers. 
  
  

Outlook
Further price easing is likely in the near term, but downside should moderate as US import demand returns and global supply tightness reasserts itself once current demand lulls pass. 

Potash

Prices are likely to trend steadily lower as supply remains comfortable and buying interest thins. 

Key Factors: 

• Global potash supply remains healthy, keeping downward pressure on spot values across major regions. 
• Market participants now expect key MOP contract settlements to conclude in March 2026, earlier than the previously anticipated May timeline, driven by low inventories and the need for clarity ahead of spring demand. 
• In China, domestic port prices had risen over the past two weeks, but downstream buyers have begun resisting higher offers. 
• As resistance intensified, prices slipped late last week, with slower trading and cautious sentiment reflecting affordability concerns and weaker downstream margins. 
  
  

Outlook
The short-term bias remains soft, with the global market sufficiently supplied and buyers showing little urgency. Some stability may form once contract negotiations begin in earnest in early 2026, but for now, a gradual easing trend is expected. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1415	1.3238	1.1594

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Nov25	145-157	154-169	195-205	410-420