Market Reports

Wheat

Grain markets ended the period choppy and macro-led, with currency swings, geopolitics and episodic weather risks dictating direction. Wheat struggled to extend late-January gains, soybeans briefly dominated on trade rhetoric, and European markets were steered by FX and cashflow pressures. Overall, ample supply continues to temper rallies despite pockets of short covering.

Key Factors:

• Currencies remain the primary driver, with sharp swings in the US dollar repeatedly dictated price direction. Dollar weakness supported US export competitiveness and short covering in wheat, while subsequent rebounds capped gains. A firmer euro capped Matif upside & continued to restrain EU export competitiveness in global markets albeit strong spot export flows out of France lent support to the front month March’26 contract.
• Wheat lost momentum after the late-Jan rally, with Chicago wheat handing back a large share of recent gains as winterkill risk eased and export demand stayed uninspiring. Funds remain net short, but with limited fresh catalysts, wheat has struggled to decouple from macro pressure or sustain upside without renewed weather threats.
• Soybeans were jolted midweek with Trump’s trade rhetoric, surging sharply after comments suggesting increased Chinese buying of US supply, triggering aggressive short covering. However, the rally remains sentiment-driven, with follow-through dependent on confirmed sales. Brazil continued shipping elsewhere, limiting the broader bullish impact on the complex.
• Closer to home, European values were supported at the front, but retained a heavy feel beyond – MATIF nearby contracts found support from French export flows, weaker euro spells and fund short covering, flattening or inverting spreads. Further along the curve, oversupply concerns, fragile cashflows and farmer selling weighed heavily, particularly in Eastern Europe and the UK.
• The weather risk has faded, but not totally gone away. In Argentina, it remains hot and dry with crop stress lingering, while Brazil enjoys broadly favourable conditions despite harvest delays. In the Northern Hemisphere, cold risks have been largely mitigated by snow cover, shifting focus toward spring moisture and potential flooding after snow melt rather than outright winterkill.
  
  

Outlook
Markets appear locked in a macro-driven holding pattern. Without a confirmed demand shock or material weather event, rallies are likely to be sold into amid burdensome global stocks. Wheat may find technical support from fund positioning, but sustained upside looks unlikely in isolation of competing grains, unless currency weakness or wheat-specific spring weather risks intensify.

Malting Barley

Trades of malting barley remain few and far between and with very limited fresh demand of old crop emerging it is hard to see the premium over feed widening anytime soon. The bearish demand sentiment for barley is also weighing on buyers making them reluctant to take forward cover until they can offset it with sales.

Key Factors:

• Strong feed barley prices are mopping up the surplus old crop malting barley, something which is of no surprise given the good quality of barley available and the need for suppliers to get barley moved for logistical reasons. However, some long holders of malting barley are hoping for an end of year spike in premiums, which may come if there are too many downgrades.
• New-crop trade continues to be slow with users unprepared to take cover until they have made the sales. The widespread long positions held by the malting barley industry last year remains firm in the memory and so it is natural that the “Once burned, twice shy” is going to affect people’s buying strategies.
• In the UK, old-crop malting barley continues to be largely untradable given the complete lack of bids. The wet weather in January could add some support to prices, but until feed prices ease and demand is known it feels like this market is going to struggle to rally.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term, upside prospects remain poor. However, we are just one weather issue away from a poor production year, so all eyes remain on the weather over the coming months.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets have seen another quiet week, with limited movement in pricing and reduced old-crop trading activity. On the new-crop side, consumers have shown some willingness to secure forward coverage.

Key Factors:

• Market conditions for feed barley have remained largely unchanged, with origination values continuing to provide a firm floor and discouraging aggressive selling. Export demand to Ireland has softened compared with recent weeks.
• On the global stage, barley is still priced at a premium relative to competing feed grains in many destination markets. Even so, consistent buying interest from China, Saudi Arabia, and parts of North Africa continues to absorb supplies from the large Southern Hemisphere harvest.
• Following the stronger price performance earlier in the year, the recent period of stability in the UK market has coincided with slower farmer engagement.
• For new crop, basis levels remain supported compared with earlier in the season, partly reflecting expectations for a reduced spring barley planting area. Although the inverse between crop years has tightened, current flat price levels have encouraged some consumer buying interest over the past week.
• Weather conditions will remain an important influence in the coming weeks. With barley plantings projected to fall to their lowest level in more than ten years, any disruption to spring drilling could quickly introduce price volatility.
  
  

Outlook
For now, feed barley markets appear broadly steady, supported by balanced supply-and-demand fundamentals and consistent domestic usage, including on-farm feeding. Buying interest has eased slightly in the short term, and without a stronger lead from wider macro markets, a sharp upward price move seems unlikely.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets saw a volatile but ultimately firmer week, with early pressure from currency and sharply weaker energy markets giving way to renewed optimism around trade headlines between Iran and the US. Rapeseed and canola both tested and respected key technical support levels, while strength later in the week was driven by soybeans and vegetable oils.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans started the week under pressure as an improving Brazilian crop outlook and advancing harvest kept rallies capped. Brazil is now forecast near 181 mmt, reinforcing the global supply narrative and limiting US export competitiveness. However, sentiment shifted sharply mid-to-late week. Strength in soyoil, driven by clarity around US 45Z biofuel tax credits and a trade agreement with India, underpinned the complex. This was amplified by President Trump’s comments suggesting potential for significantly increased Chinese bean imports again. While no firm commitments exist, the market reacted with aggressive short covering and speculative buying, pushing beans through near-term resistance levels and improving momentum indicators.
• Energy markets were the main drag early in the week as easing US–Iran tensions and unchanged OPEC+ output removed risk premium, sending crude back toward trendline support. This weakness spilled into veg oils and rapeseed initially. However, prices rebounded strongly later as geopolitical rhetoric shifted, and optimism grew around a US–India trade deal potentially diverting Indian crude demand away from Russia. From a technical perspective, crude respected key support levels and reversed higher, helping restore confidence across the wider commodity complex and improving spillover support for oilseeds.
• Canola broke trendline support early on, reflecting fund liquidation and slowing volume as both farmers and consumers covered nearby business. Importantly, prices found solid support at the 100-day moving average, a level that continues to act as a key technical marker. As soybeans and soyoil strengthened, canola followed suit, with short covering and renewed consumer interest pushing values to two-month highs. While upside momentum has improved, overhead resistance around CAD 670 remains a key hurdle before a clearer bullish breakout can be confirmed.
• MATIF rapeseed mirrored canola’s pattern, breaking lower early in the week and briefly slipping below the €475 level amid currency pressure and increased farmer selling at higher flat prices. Support at the 100-day moving average held, and prices recovered steadily as the week progressed, taking back earlier losses. Strength in soybeans, canola and crude oil helped lift sentiment, though MATIF once again stalled near the top of its established trading range towards €485. UK farmer selling remains slow, keeping basis levels firm, though targets at £430 ex are expected to improve liquidity if we are to see this materialise significantly on farm.
  
  

Outlook
The oilseed complex appears more stable, with key technical support levels having held across soybeans, canola and rapeseed. Trade rhetoric and biofuel policy remain supportive, but confirmation through actual demand will be crucial. In the short term, markets may continue to consolidate within established ranges, with volatility driven by headlines, currency moves and fund positioning. A sustained breakout higher will likely require follow-through buying and stronger energy markets.

Oats

Minimal trade has been reported over the last week with low prices disincentivising growers from selling.

Key Factors:

• Fresh enquiries from Turkey have not been forthcoming over the last week, but as we mentioned last week this is to be expected given the amount of oats that have been traded over the last 6 weeks. But with favourable tariffs still in play we expect to see some additional demand in the coming weeks.
• Feed oat demand has rallied over the last week with fresh bids coming from both Spain and W.Europe. Supplies from the Baltics have dried up and with high freight rates due to stormy weather and ice buyers will need to pay significantly higher in order to satisfy and fresh demands. 
• In the UK, low prices continue to stifle trade activity. Farmers are reluctant to lock into prices which are below costs of production and are therefore hoping for a better day.
• New-crop prospects remain uncertain, but it is no doubt that the lower plantings will add some additional pressure to markets should there be any issues during the rest of the growing season.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, it feels like markets are unable to push lower, therefore all eyes will focus on new crop to give it fresh direction.

Pulses

Pulse markets have remained subdued over the past week, with prices broadly unchanged and participation from both buyers and sellers still limited. Feed beans continue to struggle to compete in feed rations, while the pea market remains weighed down by comfortable supply and uncertain export demand. Overall, trading activity across both markets has been minimal.

Key Factors:

• UK feed bean values remain largely unchanged week-on-week, with pricing still sitting around £30–35/mt above alternative protein sources such as rapeseed meal and soybean meal for nearby positions. At this level, beans remain difficult to justify in feed rations, and the market is relying on reduced demand to keep the relatively tight old-crop balance sheet in check. While stocks are not burdensome, price less competitive continues to act as the primary balancing mechanism.
• In export markets, Australian new-crop supplies are continuing to move into North Africa, leaving UK and Baltic origins struggling to compete, particularly with the recent strength in GBP/USD weighing on competitiveness. With Ramadan approaching, the window for pre-Ramadan shipments is effectively closed, further limiting nearby opportunities.

• The pea market tracks sideways this week, very limited trading activity following last week’s trade event in Dubai. Despite the scale of the event, it did little to stimulate fresh business. Conversations continue to focus on the potential for renewed trade flows between Canada and China, though firm activity remains scarce, there are rumours of a few cargoes of Canadian yellow peas trading into China, which could help establish a floor for global feed pea prices. However, overall consumer interest remains muted. In the UK, domestic demand is dead. The market still needs to work through existing long positions before buyers are likely to return in any meaningful way.
• On the contracting side, pea buyback programs are now complete, with a few people still looking for contracts.  Spring Linseed contracts are still available for those interested.
  
  

Outlook
Pulse markets continue to lean slightly bearish in tone, with limited support from either feed or human consumption demand. Beans remain priced out of most feed formulations, while ample pea supplies and the prospect of Canadian product returning to China are likely to cap any near-term upside. Until demand improves or surplus stocks are reduced, markets are expected to remain slow-moving.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Processing of spring cereals and pulses has now commenced, aligning with the recent release of our Spring Seed Catalogue. This provides a timely opportunity to review the range of varieties available and how we can support growers in making informed varietal decisions for Spring 2026 drilling.

Varietal choice remains a critical component in setting crops up for a successful season. Achieving the right balance between yield potential, disease resistance and end-market demand continues to be vital when selecting varieties.

Key Factors:

• New to the 2026/27 AHDB List, Winter Wheat KWS Fowlmere is one of the most exciting additions for the coming season. As the earliest‑maturing variety on the RL and boasting class‑leading specific weight among Group 4 hard wheats, it offers growers a rare combination of timeliness, performance and risk reduction. With ultra early harvest, strong yields and robust agronomics, Fowlmere is a standout choice for those looking to protect grain quality, ease harvest pressure and build greater resilience into their rotation.
• Across the spring cropping portfolio, well-established and trusted varieties continue to dominate, underpinned by their consistent performance, strong agronomic reliability and wide market acceptance.
  Laureate remains the benchmark variety in spring barley for the malting and brewing sectors, supported by the continued strength of RGT Planet and the dependable agronomic profiles of Skyway and CB Score.
  In spring oats, Merlin and Isabel remain the leading choices, valued for both on-farm consistency and strong end-market support.
  Lynx spring bean continues to perform strongly and remains one of the most popular options available.
  For spring peas, the 2026 offering delivers a broad and versatile range across Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow pea varieties, with all seed supplied with Nuello iN as standard. This treatment enhances early vigour, supports establishment and maximises yield potential, and is also available as an optional addition across other spring-sown crops.
• Our maize portfolio spans early to late-maturing varieties, allowing growers to match selections to their farming system, location and end use. The range supports forage, biogas and grain maize production.
• As spring approaches, attention is also turning to grass leys, environmental mixtures, fodder beet and other small-seed crops. Please speak to your Farm Trader to discuss our full small-seed offering.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, demand for proven, reliable varieties is expected to remain, particularly where performance consistency and end-market security align. At the same time, interest in newer genetics offering agronomic and harvest advantages continues to build. Early engagement and forward planning will be key to securing preferred varieties and ensuring crops are well positioned to perform in Spring 2026 and beyond.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European gas rebounds on low wind output while US steadies ahead of storage data. 

Key Factors: 

• European natural gas futures rebounded toward €35/MWh after touching a three-week low, driven by persistently weak wind generation across northwest Europe, increasing gas burn for power. 
• EU gas storage is critically low at around 39.2% full versus roughly 52% a year ago, with Germany, France and the Netherlands all near or below 30%. 
• Stocks are projected to fall toward 26% by end-March, implying a heavy summer injection requirement to meet the EU’s 90% pre-winter target. 
• Higher LNG arrivals this week may provide some relief, while markets continue to monitor Ukraine–Russia peace discussions for longer-term supply implications. 
• In the US, futures were broadly steady near $3.45/MMBtu as traders awaited the EIA storage report after last week’s Arctic blast. 
  
  

Outlook
European gas prices are likely to remain supported in the near term by low storage levels, weak renewable output and the prospect of colder weather later in February, despite periodic relief from LNG arrivals. In the US, strong LNG demand and tightening inventories underpin the market, though milder weather forecasts could limit upside unless sustained cold re-emerges. 

Ammonia

East–West divergence deepens as availability improves in Asia but Atlantic tightness persists. 

Key Factors: 

• East of Suez markets are coming under pressure as rising availability and limited spot buying weigh on sentiment, with buyers stepping back and offers beginning to soften. 
• Improved supply visibility in Asia is reducing urgency, particularly in the absence of near-term import demand. 
• West of Suez remains comparatively tight, with limited spot tonnes available and producers maintaining price discipline. 
• The February Tampa ammonia contract settled $40/t above January, reinforcing firmness in the Atlantic basin and providing a benchmark signal of ongoing tightness. 
  
  

Outlook 
Prices are expected to ease east of Suez as length builds and spot demand remains thin. West of Suez, values should stay supported in the near term on restricted availability and strong contract benchmarks, though downside risks will grow if global supply continues to normalise. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Sulphates firm on tightening supply while nitrates stabilise with improving European activity. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonium sulphate values are expected to strengthen further as European availability tightens, and Chinese production cuts continue to limit export supply. 
• Reduced Chinese operating rates are constraining caprolactam-linked output, lending structural support to global sulphate markets. 
• Nitrate prices are broadly flat week on week, with limited downside pressure despite subdued seasonal demand. 
• European buying activity is gradually increasing, with Russian nitrate producers largely sold out through the end of March, tightening prompt availability. 
  
  

Outlook 
Sulphate prices are likely to remain firm in the near term as supply-side constraints persist. Nitrates should continue to trade sideways, with scope for modest upside if European demand continues to build and limited Russian availability tightens the balance further. 

Urea

Prices supported by near term demand, with potential supply relief emerging later in February. 

Key Factors: 

• Demand from the US and India continues to underpin global prices, with additional support expected from Europe, Australia and Latin America over the coming weeks. 
• US buying interest remains seasonally strong, while Indian demand continues to anchor sentiment following recent tender activity. 
• European and southern hemisphere markets are beginning to re engage, adding incremental support to prompt and nearby positions. 
• Iran is expected to see natural gas supplies resume to producers from mid February, which could allow additional export volumes to return to the market. 
  
  

Outlook 
Urea prices should remain stable to firm through early February as demand absorbs available supply. From mid February onward, the resumption of Iranian production could introduce some supply side pressure, limiting further upside and potentially easing values if volumes materialise as expected. 

Phosphate

Prices firm as China steps back from exports and cost pressures intensify. 

Key Factors: 

• China has temporarily halted DAP and MAP exports until August, materially tightening available supply in the global market. 
• The withdrawal of Chinese tonnes has emboldened suppliers, with higher offers now being pushed across key import regions. 
• Elevated sulphur prices continue to drive producer costs higher, reinforcing bullish sentiment and limiting downside risk. 
• Geopolitical uncertainty is adding an additional risk premium, encouraging buyers to secure cover rather than delay purchases. 
  
  

Outlook 
Phosphate prices are expected to continue edging higher in the near term as restricted supply, rising input costs and geopolitical risks dominate market sentiment. While demand remains price sensitive, the lack of readily available alternatives suggests any pullbacks are likely to be shallow. 

Potash

Prices firm on tender momentum, though fundamentals remain fragile. 

Key Factors: 

• MOP prices continue to edge higher in Brazil and Southeast Asia, led by supplier sentiment rather than end-user demand. 
• The recent closure of Pupuk Indonesia’s 145,000 t sMOP tender at $389/t CFR has set a firmer reference point for Southeast Asian pricing. 
• Brazilian suppliers are pushing prices higher despite ongoing affordability constraints and only modest farmer buying interest. 
• Demand fundamentals remain weak across most regions, with price resistance evident away from tender-driven business. 
• Market focus is shifting to India, where negotiations for the 2026 MOP contract are expected to begin this week. 
  
  

Outlook 
While near-term prices are supported by tender outcomes and supplier resolve, underlying demand weakness and affordability concerns suggest upside is vulnerable. The direction of India’s contract settlement will be critical in determining whether current price strength can be sustained or begins to unwind. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1560	1.3651	1.1805

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Feb25	145-158	159-169	195-205	420-430