Thursday 7 May 2026

Wheat

Global grain markets experienced another volatile week, with weather, harvest progress and USDA data driving sentiment. Stronger-than-expected US supply tightening provided support late in the week, although ample Black Sea production, advancing Northern Hemisphere harvests and subdued export demand continued to cap rallies across wheat markets.

Key Factors:

• The USDA’s June Stocks and Acreage report provided a bullish surprise for wheat, with lower-than-expected stocks and a significant reduction in US planted area. The data reinforced a firmer medium-term supply outlook despite favourable US growing conditions.
• Weather remains the dominant driver across the Northern Hemisphere. Heat and dryness across much of Europe continue to threaten maize and spring crop potential, while mixed conditions across the US have eased some drought concerns. Markets remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts as pollination and grain fill approach.
• Black Sea competition is limiting wheat’s upside though. Improving Russian production estimates and encouraging early Black Sea harvest results continue to pressure global wheat values. Weak importer demand and falling export offers have maintained strong competition for European and UK wheat.
• Meanwhile, European and UK markets remain subdued. MATIF wheat remained volatile but generally weaker as harvest activity accelerated and the stronger euro reduced export competitiveness. UK markets were characterised by thin liquidity, limited old crop demand and cautious positioning ahead of harvest.
• Macro influences continue to shape trade, with a combination of currency movements, energy prices and speculative fund positioning remained influential throughout the week. A softer US dollar and easing concerns over fertiliser supplies offered intermittent support, although managed money liquidation and weaker crude oil prices weighed on overall market sentiment.
  
  

Outlook
Attention now turns squarely to Northern Hemisphere harvest results and evolving weather forecasts. While tighter North American wheat supplies have improved the underlying market balance, abundant Black Sea availability and uncertain export demand are likely to limit upside unless adverse weather materially reduces production prospects.

Malting Barley

European malting barley markets have managed to maintain the recent rise in prices caused by the severe heat wave experienced in parts of Europe over the last 10 days. Temperatures more than 40 degrees centigrade are expected to have caused some damage and sped up crop maturity, however the yield impact will not be known until harvest progresses. Farmer selling remains poor and this is helping to support prices.

Key Factors:

• Severe heat wave across wide areas of Europe over the last 10 days is expected to have caused some damage to crops, but the issue is likely to be less severe on areas where crop maturity was already far advanced. Scandinavian crops are more at risk should the heat push into those areas.
• Early yield data from France indicates yields 1.0-1.5t/ha below last year for both winters and springs.
• Northern hemisphere harvest is progressing, early indications from France are for higher nitrogens and lower yields.
• UK malting barley is expected to see similar issues to France although parts of southern England and Yorkshire where fields retained more available moisture may not have suffered the same issues with high Nitrogen.
• Secondary growth is widespread in English crops, and this is expected to see some high screening samples.
• Minimal farmer selling continues to support prices as this lack of liquidity is impacting the ability to trade.
  
  

Outlook
In the near term, European malting barley prices are expected to track sideways to slightly higher with rallies in wheat prices expected to be followed until the extent of the damage is known. Longer term, the UK outlook remains uncertain, however given the large available supply in Scotland, English prices will be capped by tonnages moving south.

Feed Barley

The market is subdued on the eve of harvest. Early reports are giving mixed signals, and the market is not actively trading. We can expect some greater activity over the coming weeks.

Key Factors:

• Early harvest cuts are just starting to get underway, although it is too early to comment on yield and quality with only a small portion of the crop harvested. Early comments however are giving variability between land-types, with heavier soils performing much better than lighter land, which is to be expected given the hot/dry conditions the UK has received of late.
• Markets are once again subdued. Export prices for harvest are still being undercut by other origins, although UK prices are slowly starting to converge for the harvest window as sellers look to lock in logistics.
• Basis values in the deferred positions are holding steady as farmer selling remains muted which is being sellers from chasing demand. It is certain that we are heading towards a much tighter S&D than recent years, so it is likely that feed barley will have to remain proud in order to ration demand over the winter.
  
  

Outlook
Prices in the spot position are unlikely to see any significant upside with harvest just around the corner and a lack of demand in the market. Deferred prices could provide some more promise with a tightening S&D and feed barley currently pricing relatively well into feed rations.

Rapeseed

The oilseed complex is enduring another volatile week, with markets continually reacting to shifting weather forecasts, macroeconomic headlines and key government reports. Early support from renewed US export demand and concerns over warmer weather gave way to pressure following cooler forecasts and larger-than-expected Canadian canola acreage. Outside markets remained influential throughout, while crude oil stabilised after recent sharp losses and harvest activity in Europe began to place greater emphasis on physical yields and farmer selling behaviour as you would expect this time of year.

Key Factors:

• Chicago soybeans experienced two-way trade as weather forecasts remained the dominant driver. Late last week, improved export demand and reports of Chinese interest in new crop US beans helped futures rally, supported further by stronger-than-expected weekly export sales. However, cooler US forecasts quickly removed much of the weather premium, allowing prices to retrace before Tuesday’s USDA reports delivered a broadly neutral outcome. While planted area came in slightly above expectations, stocks remain around 11% below last year, underlining continued strong domestic crush demand on high crush margins. Technically, the market continues to trade within a broad range, with weather likely to dictate whether resistance is challenged again.
• Energy markets continued to settle after the sharp declines seen over recent weeks. While occasional headlines surrounding shipping disruptions and renewed diplomatic tensions briefly influenced sentiment, the market increasingly focused on maintaining stable supply flows as potential escalations calmed down. Brent found support around recent lows, with longer-term trendline support continuing to hold and limiting further downside. As geopolitical risk premium continues to fade, traders are increasingly returning their attention to underlying supply and demand fundamentals.
• Canola spent much of the week consolidating around its 100-day moving average, with repeated tests of technical support producing little conviction either way. Favourable Prairie weather and generally positive crop conditions capped rallies, while traders waited for the latest Statistics Canada acreage update. The report ultimately surprised the market, estimating a record 23.4 million planted acres for 2026/27, significantly above both last year’s area and the March estimate.
• European rapeseed remained trapped within a relatively tight trading range despite regular day-to-day reversals. Initial support came from concerns that rising temperatures across parts of Europe could introduce crop stress, but attention gradually shifted towards harvest progress, early yield reports and increasing farmer selling. The weaker tone in Canadian canola following the StatsCan report also weighed on prices, dragging futures back into the lower €500s. From a technical perspective, nearby support is now becoming increasingly important, with traders watching closely for either a decisive breakdown or another successful defence of the current range.
  
  

Outlook
Markets are likely to remain highly weather-sensitive through July as Northern Hemisphere crops move through key development stages and European harvest results become more widely available. Attention will remain on US weather forecasts, crop condition updates and export demand. For rapeseed, harvest yields and farmer selling pace are expected to become increasingly important, with technical support levels likely to determine short-term price direction if fresh fundamental news remains limited.

Oats

Oat markets continue to be quiet as most await harvest results before giving the market its key direction. The heat wave in Europe is certainly cause for concern, but as yet Scandinavian crops seem to be fairing okay.

Key Factors:

• Severe heat across Europe with temps 36-45 degrees has caused damage to developing crops, but the extent of this damage is not known.
• Low prices are discouraging UK farmers from selling and this is impacting liquidity and impacting trade.
• High production in Spain is expected to impact demand for EU oats for the second year in a row, however a lack of farmer selling could give way to exports in the coming months.
  
  

Outlook
Near-term support for oat values is likely to persist as uncertainty around new crop yields and quality continues. Until harvest progress provides greater visibility and growers begin marketing meaningful volumes, there is limited pressure for prices to move significantly lower. Over the coming months, attention will increasingly shift to crop outcomes across Scandinavia. As the region remains the dominant supplier of exportable milling oats, any indication of yield losses or quality concerns could have a material impact on market sentiment and pricing direction. Looking further ahead, the economics for the 2027 crop remain unappealing for growers. Continued weak forward returns may discourage milling oat acreage for a third consecutive season, raising the risk of tighter supplies. Should UK production again fall short of demand, the market could enter another cyclical upswing driven by reduced availability and stronger competition for quality oats.

Pulses

The end of the old crop Pulse market is in sight, with Pea Vining already well under way. Combining Peas are not a million miles away in places, whilst Beans continue to mature. The weather is still the primary focus for the pulse crop, with the coming couple of weeks crucial for the final developmental stages. Variable, but steadily improving vining pea yields offer some support to the outlook of the coming new crop production.

Key Factors:

• A trip to the PGRO Trials Day at Nocton on Tuesday did little to restore faith in the coming bean crop. Thankfully it is noted as by far the worst trial plot in place this year, and the Winter Beans are not fully representative of the wider national picture. The Spring Bean plots were better at least, although they are still struggling, as is most of the spring drilled crop, with plants aborting higher level pods, no doubt due to the recent heat/drought stress. However, crops are highly variable across the UK this year, so for every horror story, there will no doubt be a silver lining to offset.
• The old crop bean market is now all but dead as the trades’ attention pivots towards the new crop. Interest is thin and patchy, with buyers still in the period of ‘hurry up and wait’ for harvest so we can gauge the crop more accurately. Beans still take direction from London Feed Wheat futures, however for how much longer? As we get in to harvest, this will likely disconnect, as it does most years, and beans will start trading their own story.
• Pea crops across Europe have now moved firmly into a key stage of the season, with harvesting underway in France. Prolonged hot, dry weather and the absence of significant rainfall since mid-March continue to weigh on both yield and quality, with current production estimates running below last year. As harvesting expands across the rest of Europe over the coming weeks, a more complete assessment of the crop will emerge.
• In the UK, the vining pea harvest is progressing with rampant abound, and whilst early yields are proving variable, expectations remain that performance should improve as the campaign advances. It will therefore be some time before the overall impact on crop condition, quality and yield is fully understood.
• Pea plots displayed at the PGRO Trials Day in Nocton have generally performed better than the beans. While the recent heat has trimmed some yield potential, most crops appear to have come through the worst of the conditions relatively well. Differences in drilling date were particularly evident, with crops established around three weeks later showing noticeably stronger resilience. This is in stark contrast to the Bean crop, where, broadly speaking, crops drilled at the front of the window have seen significantly better establishment and resilience than later drilled crops.
• Demand remains subdued across both old and new crop pea markets. Although supply gaps between the two marketing seasons still need to be covered, buyers continue to adopt a cautious approach, preferring to wait for greater clarity on harvest progress and crop quality before committing to additional purchases.
• As highlighted in recent market updates, social media communications and through the awareness campaigns issued by PGRO, growers should remain alert to the potential presence of Pea Bruchid Beetle. We strongly encourage all growers to follow the latest guidance and recommendations that have been circulated. Growers seeking guidance on crop management should make full use of the extensive technical and agronomic support available through PGRO, as well as Keith Costello’s latest crop bulletins. Members have access to a wide range of resources, while farm trading representatives can provide further information on accessing relevant advice and support.
  
  

Outlook
The old crop pulse market is drawing to a close as attention shifts firmly to harvest and new crop potential. Weather over the coming weeks will be decisive for final yields, particularly in beans, where variability remains significant. As harvesting gathers pace across the UK and Europe, improving visibility on production and quality should allow markets to establish clearer direction, with beans increasingly trading on their own supply and demand fundamentals.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As planning for autumn rotations gets underway, attention is quickly shifting toward securing seed. With several new headline varieties in short supply, early conversations and early orders will be crucial to guarantee access to the latest genetics.

Winter OSR

• Winter oilseed rape continues to be one of the strongest contributors to farm profitability, consistently delivering reliable gross margins while supporting wider agronomic objectives.
• Achieving success with OSR starts with choosing the right genetics. ADM Agriculture’s OSR portfolio has been selected to deliver high output, excellent oil content, strong agronomic performance and robust disease resistance. To explore the full range, view our OSR Seed Catalogue.
• While OSR remains an attractive crop, we recognise the challenges and risks growers face. To help manage establishment risk, ADM Agriculture offers an Establishment Scheme on selected high-performing hybrid varieties, providing peace of mind and support during the critical establishment phase.
• For growers concerned about cabbage stem flea beetle pressure, it’s worth considering companion cropping. Species such as fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover are popular options to help support establishment by creating distinct odours and canopies that may deter flea beetle activity and contributing to nitrogen fixation.
  
  

Winter Cereals

• Following another season of extensive trial assessments across multiple sites and growing conditions, several varieties have continued to impress.
• RGT Hexton has once again stood out, maintaining excellent cleanliness and delivering consistently strong performance across trial locations. This variety really seems to hold its own in lighter soils and droughty conditions. 
• KWS Fowlmere is another variety worth considering. With a maturity rating of -2, it offers something genuinely different, maturing significantly earlier than any other Recommended List variety while also delivering excellent specific weight.
• KWS Arnie has also generated significant interest this season. It has remained notably clean, particularly against yellow rust, during a year when disease pressure has been exceptionally high.
• In winter barley, newly recommended hybrid SY Barnabus looks set to provide a yield step-up for current Kingsbarn growers, combining exceptional yield potential with outstanding specific weight.
  
  

Small Seeds

• Demand for small seeds continues to build. Whether you’re planning grass leys, environmental stewardship mixtures, game cover crops or bespoke blends, your Farm Trader can help identify and source the most suitable options for your farming system.
• We currently have a range of seed mixtures available for prompt delivery, including summer cover crop mixtures and companion crop blends, helping growers respond quickly to seasonal opportunities.
  
  

Trials Days

• As the 2026 trials season draws to a close, there is still one opportunity remaining to attend one of our trial’s events. Our final trials day will take place on 7 July at KWS, Yorkshire.
• These events provide growers with the chance to walk plots, compare current Recommended List varieties with the latest candidate varieties and gather practical insights to support autumn cropping decisions.
• Alongside variety assessments, visitors can discuss disease pressure trends, new breeding technologies and market developments with breeders and ADM Agriculture specialists. If you would like to attend, please get in touch to reserve your place.
  
  

Outlook

As we move towards harvest and begin planning for autumn drilling, variety selection and rotational decisions remain key drivers of crop performance and profitability. With continuing pressure from disease and increasingly variable weather conditions, selecting the right varieties will be more important than ever.

ADM Agriculture remains committed to supporting growers with market-leading genetics, expert technical advice and practical solutions that help maximise performance across the rotation. Speak with your local Farm Trader to discuss your autumn seed requirements and secure the best options for your farm.

Fertiliser

Nitrogen markets are rebalancing, with urea stabilising west of Suez while eastern markets weaken under Chinese export pressure, returning Middle East supply and softer demand. 

Key Factors: 

• Urea markets are now diverging by region. Brazil has ticked higher to $410 to $425/t CFR, while Middle East FOB values have softened to $360 to $385/t as more Gulf supply returns to the market. 

• Physical flows through Hormuz continue to normalise, with further urea vessels crossing the Strait and floating inventory reducing from the disrupted levels seen earlier in the conflict. 

• West of Suez sentiment is firmer, with Europe and Latin America expected to re-enter the market after delayed demand during the past four months. 

• East of Suez sentiment is weaker, with Chinese export availability from July onwards, the end of Australian import demand and expectations that the next Indian tender may be pushed into late July or early August weighing on prices. 

• Egypt remains competitive into Europe at $405 to $410/t FOB, although summer energy demand is expected to rise by 8 percent, which could increase LNG import requirements and affect domestic gas availability. 

• Iran continues returning supply, with Pardis selling 40,000 t granular urea at $340/t FOB and Hengam and Lordegan restarting granular urea production. 

• US NOLA weakened to $360 to $368/st FOB as fresh demand was absent and US acreage data suggested farmers cut nitrogen application rates rather than materially reduce corn acres. 

• Ammonium sulphate remains under pressure. China standard amsul fell to $175 to $185/t FOB, while Brazil compacted material held at $185 to $195/t CFR with only limited prompt business. 

• Weekly nitrogen values show broader weakness across sulphates, nitrates and UAN, with Germany CAN 27 easing to €350 to €375/t CIF inland and Rouen UAN 30 slipping to €410 to €415/t FCA. 

• UK nitrate attention has now shifted to CF following Yara’s reset. After Yara lowered new season levels, the market is expecting CF to follow with a lower Nitram price, with many participants anticipating an announcement either tomorrow or Monday next week. 

• TTF gas eased materially to $13.94/mn Btu from $15.10/mn Btu, reducing European nitrogen production cost pressure, while Northwest Europe urea production costs fell to around $391/t FOB.  
  
  

Outlook 
Fertiliser markets are likely to remain mixed in the short term. Urea appears to have found some support west of Suez as Brazil and Europe move closer to re-entering, but eastern markets remain pressured by Chinese exports, returning Middle East flows and weaker Australian demand. Ammonium sulphate and UAN remain softer, while nitrates are now being reset lower across Europe and the UK. The key domestic watchpoint is CF’s expected Nitram move, which should confirm whether the UK market follows Yara’s lower price structure into the new season. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1664	1.3275	1.1377

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Jul26	140-145	167-177	209-219	415-425