ADM Agriculture Market Report

Wheat

Global grain markets remained under pressure throughout the week, with sustained fund liquidation, weak export demand and growing expectations of increased Black Sea supply weighing heavily on wheat and corn. Wheat recorded fresh multi-month lows, while corn approached four-month lows. Attention is now turning towards the November USDA reports and forthcoming Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

Key Factors:

• US wheat futures extended their decline for a ninth consecutive week, reaching a nine-month low, with CBOT prices returning to July levels. Increased speculative short positions, aggressive competition from Argentina and Australia, and expectations of improved Black Sea shipping flows continue to undermine sentiment. US export sales improved to a seasonal high of 850,000 tonnes but remain 29% behind last year.
• Markets are increasingly focused on planned trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November. Potential progress towards a Black Sea shipping agreement could release additional Russian and Ukrainian supplies onto the global market, increasing competition. Russian exports remain constrained by logistics, although export availability continues to influence global pricing.
• US corn futures fell for a fifth consecutive week, reaching a four-month low. Export inspections remain disappointing, running 13% below last year, while cumulative sales are 34% behind. However, sizeable recent sales to Mexico and Spain suggest lower prices are beginning to attract buyers. Brazilian planting is progressing ahead of schedule, adding to comfortable supply expectations.
• MATIF wheat fell to fresh lows, with December 2026 futures approaching €224/t. However, tightening French availability, strong domestic feed demand and previously committed export sales continue to support nearby physical premiums and spreads. Conversely, new-crop values remain under pressure from expectations of substantial Russian and Ukrainian carryover stocks and weaker forward demand.
• Speculative selling remained a dominant market influence, with money managers selling almost 201,000 agricultural contracts in the latest reporting week. Wheat funds extended their combined short position to 80,500 contracts, the largest in eight months, while the corn net long fell to just 56,000 contracts. Continued liquidation has amplified downward price movements across the grain complex.
  
  

Outlook
The November USDA Supply and Demand Report will be the immediate fundamental focus, particularly for potential revisions to US corn yields, production and carryout. Wheat markets remain vulnerable to further downside ahead of the Abu Dhabi negotiations, with any progress potentially accelerating Black Sea competition. However, lower prices are beginning to encourage demand, while tightening European physical availability should continue supporting nearby premiums and spreads.

Malting Barley

Recent brewer activity has seen European prices rise in recent weeks, however now that demand has been covered prices have eased in the last few days.

Key Factors:

• The UK malting barley market continues to show no signs of direction with minimal trade activity being reported.
• A lack of clarity around intake specifications, combined with adequate on-farm storage capacity, has encouraged many growers to refrain from entering the market.
• The UK S&D would suggest that we will need to see imports from another EU country to balance the books, however a potential reduction in demand could solve this issue. But yet this remains unconfirmed. 
  
  

Outlook
The key factor for the UK market remains the ability for the market to utilise the 2026 crop and given its poor quality it is understandable that maltsters are reluctant to rush into a decision. A rise in £/€ is helping to reduce import parities and should the trade agree to Danish supplies we could see domestic prices fall. For now, the market remains finely balanced, with the eventual outcome likely to become clearer as the season progresses.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets are once again feeling some pressure, particularly in Northern areas. Longer term outlook is still supportive.

Key Factors:

• We see continued weakness in feed barley markets as demand remains elusive and futures continue to fall.
• Feed barley continues to maintain a comfortable price discount to both wheat and maize, supporting its competitiveness and encouraging greater inclusion in feed rations.
• Export markets remain below domestic values, with very little fresh activity to report. Vessels continue to leave Scottish ports bound for Ireland, although new export business remains difficult to secure at current price levels.
  
  

Outlook
Feed barley prices are expected to continue tracking wheat markets in the short term, although longer term, it’s price competitiveness should support demand and drive relative value increases vs other feed products.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets came under increasing pressure this week, with weakness across the vegetable oil complex driven largely by a sharp correction in crude oil. Improving optimism towards diplomatic discussions in the Middle East removed some of the recent risk premium from energy markets, weighing on prices. Soybeans also struggled despite continued export demand, while approaching Australian harvest is beginning to focus attention on additional canola supply. MATIF rapeseed has now confirmed a bearish technical breakout, shifting the near-term outlook lower.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans came under pressure throughout the week, falling to their lowest level since mid-August. Despite several flash sales and weekly export inspections towards the higher end of expectations, demand has struggled to offset weakness across meal and soyoil. US harvest is progressing ahead of average, while StoneX increased its Brazilian production estimate to 184.95mmt from 183.36mmt. Political uncertainty following the US midterm elections also encouraged some long liquidation, with traders questioning whether previously discussed Chinese buying commitments will fully materialise. Continued EU demand, particularly ahead of expected EUDR implementation, is providing some underlying support.
• Energy markets experienced a significant correction, with crude falling sharply from recent highs. Improving optimism towards diplomatic discussions in the Middle East, including proposals surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has encouraged traders to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium built into prices. The subsequent sharp decline in crude has fed directly into vegetable oil markets, removing an important source of support for the wider oilseed complex.
• Canola initially showed some resilience, holding around the $780 support level despite wider market weakness. However, selling pressure increased towards the end of the week, with futures falling sharply and cash values also coming under pressure. Approaching Australian harvest is likely to encourage some additional hedging as physical shorts unwind their futures positions. Meanwhile, weaker board margins and limited commercial buying interest are making it increasingly difficult for the market to maintain support. Improved export competitiveness from lower cash values may offer some relief, although the supply outlook remains comfortable.
• MATIF prices have fallen sharply through the week and confirmed a break below both the short-term trendline and 100-day moving average. The bearish reversal pattern, followed by a gap lower and continued selling, suggests further downside potential. February futures closed at €526.25, with €518 now the next key support level. This also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally which began in January. Seasonal pressure from Australian harvest and the unwinding of previously established futures positions could add further weight in the coming weeks.
  
  

Outlook
The near-term outlook remains under pressure across the oilseed complex. Soybeans will need fresh demand to overcome improving South American production prospects, while Australian harvest will be an important watchpoint for canola. Crude oil remains sensitive to developments in diplomatic discussions, leaving vegetable oils exposed to further volatility. For MATIF rapeseed, €518 is the immediate downside target, with any recovery needing to reclaim the 100-day moving average and broken trendline to suggest the recent bearish move is losing momentum.

Oats

General market liquidity in the UK remains relatively slow with limited volumes of oats reported to be trading. The lack of overall supply is the general cause of this.

Key Factors:

• Scandinavian supplies are less available following a strong bought of selling, therefore import parities for oats into the UK have increased. This is partly negated by the rise in £/€, however high fuel prices and rising oat values have still seen a net increase in prices. 
• Millers are trying to accommodate the poor-quality UK crop, and this is important as some customers have an inelastic demand for UK oats and therefore cannot be supplied with imported oats from the EU.
• Feed oats have seen greater interest in recent weeks, and this has seen prices rise relative to wheat. This is partly due to the rise in fibre alternatives but also the high milling price is seeing more feeds being blended away.
  
  

Outlook
The overall UK oat supply and demand position remains tight, high production losses combined with the poor yields will see further requirements on imports to balance the books. Looking towards harvest 2027, early indications suggest that oat plantings will decline again as wheat and OSR prove to offer greater gross margin returns. Further reductions in domestic production will strengthen the underlying supply issue and this could offer support to oat prices over the coming 12 months. Imports are currently the key, so all eyes should remain on import parities.

Pulses

The general malaise continues with little fresh interest from consumers, but a steady stream of origination from farm has at least helped to keep moods slightly lifted. We are right in the heart of the winter drilling window now for beans, and they are reportedly going in very well across the UK – is this a case of winters replacing springs, or just that we’re on course for a bump in the bean area in CY27? Either way, beans are no longer tracking London wheat futures as they trade their own story.

Key Factors:

• The domestic feed market remains subdued, with any forward interest largely centred on requirements into the New Year. Beans continue to struggle to compete against alternative raw materials across several feed formulations, leaving buyers reluctant to increase inclusion rates. Poultry remains the most active outlet, although even here, despite relatively favourable production margins elsewhere in the sector, the economics of incorporating beans are still being scrutinised.
• Winter bean drilling has progressed well, helped by another favourable spell of weather and generally excellent seedbed conditions. Crops already in the ground are establishing well, providing an encouraging start to the new season. With drilling largely the priority for growers, it is also worth considering marketing options for the coming crop. A range of alternatives are available through your farm trading representative, from pools and futures-linked contracts to outright cash deals, alongside associated seed and fertiliser packages. For now, however, attention should remain firmly on establishing the crop correctly, with seedbed preparation, soil indices and early nutrition all important considerations. The PGRO remains a useful source of guidance and technical information as the new crop gets underway.
• The feed pea market remains subdued, with limited demand and little evidence of an improvement in buying activity. Competition from Canadian and Eastern European supplies continues to weigh on the market, while weak consumption across the EU is restricting opportunities. In the UK, increasing volumes of peas without a confirmed human consumption outlet are adding pressure to feed values. Imported peas may also become a more attractive alternative to beans, depending on relative pricing.
• The human consumption market remains challenging, with most major blue and marrowfat requirements for next season already covered. Limited demand and competition from overseas origins continue to restrict opportunities for additional UK contracts. Quality is likely to be a key factor in determining market access, particularly given reports of smaller seed sizes and bleaching in the 2026 UK crop. Buyers remain cautious, with outstanding samples and confirmation of available quality and tonnage needed before further business can develop.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, subdued feed demand and continued competition from alternative raw materials are likely to keep the domestic bean market subdued, with buyers focused on New Year requirements. Winter drilling is progressing well, potentially pointing towards increased CY27 acreage. Attention now turns to crop establishment and early nutrition, while growers should begin considering marketing options for the coming season.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Focus is beginning to shift towards spring cropping. With yield challenges reported across both the UK and Europe this season, availability is expected to be tight on several key spring commodities, prompting earlier‑than‑usual planning and ordering.

Key Factors:

• Maize Seed – Maize continues to attract early interest. Lower yields across parts of Europe have reduced overall production, directly tightening seed supply for spring drilling. Many growers are already reserving preferred varieties ahead of what is expected to be a constrained campaign.
• Spring Cereal Seed – Laureate remains the backbone of the spring barley market, supported by its strong performance and broad acceptance. A notable new entrant to spring wheat this season is STR Pace – a sprinter wheat bred from both winter and spring parentage. With no vernalisation requirement, it offers genuine drilling flexibility, performing whether sown in winter or spring. For spring oats, Merlin is our top choice as a high yielding, early maturing variety with low screenings and solid specific weight.
• Spring Pulse Seed – For growers looking to secure seed alongside ADM’s market‑leading buybacks, we are pleased to offer:

Butterfly and Daytona – large blue peas

Kabuki and Adder – marrowfat peas

These options provide strong market alignment and dependable performance.

• Autumn Cereal Seed – Stocks remain across a broad spread of leading varieties. Arlington, Skyfall and Crusoe in the Group 1 sector are on the floor for fast delivery for those pushing milling performance. In the biscuit segment, KWS Solitaire continues to draw interest. For feed performance, LG Beowulf and KWS Scope remain dependable choices with proven agronomic resilience. 
• Autumn Pulse Seed – Vespa remains the leading winter bean choice, offering high yield potential and consistent results on the Descriptive List. Whether growers are after a top up or require seed for a new order, we are pleased to be able to offer.
  
  

Outlook
As autumn progresses, attention will begin shifting towards spring cropping plans. Growers who still need to finalise autumn requirements, or who anticipate top‑ups, are encouraged to speak with their farm trader promptly to secure suitable options. For those already turning their focus to spring, early ordering is advisable given tightening availability in several key categories.

Fertiliser

Fertiliser markets are broadly unchanged week on week. Urea prices are slightly softer on the lack of an Indian tender and hopes of a peace agreement. Gas sold off sharply after the US midterm elections, as the Democrats’ win in both chambers raised speculation that efforts to end the US–Iran war will gain momentum. The TTF front-month fell 6.6% to €85.54/MWh, helped by the Democrat win and weak Asian LNG demand. That is still well above the level where EU nitrogen production is economical. Around 28% of European capacity is offline, and output is likely to stay constrained through the winter.

Middle East supply is improving but remains a key driver. Vessels crossed Hormuz at about one a week in October, but three urea vessels have already cleared in the first days of November. Around 303,000 t is still in the Gulf (Kpler), and it is uncertain whether the flow will continue.

Urea
Egyptian granular is $530–540/t FOB Europe, Middle East $440–450/t FOB and Chinese prilled $340–345/t FOB. Egypt has cut gas supply to its nitrogen producers by 20%, which will reduce output from the UK’s and Europe’s key import origin. However, the effect has been limited so far because European demand is quiet. If buying picks up in the new year while Egyptian output is still reduced, the cut could tighten supply and support prices.

India is the main source of support, with the IPL tender now expected after Diwali, late next week at the earliest, as one large tender or two smaller ones. Brazil is pulling the other way, with buyers showing little urgency despite this being its key import window because affordability remains stretched.

Nitrates
European ammonia production costs have risen €130/t over the last two months. With around 28% of European capacity offline, nitrate prices remain supported by tighter supply and high production costs. German CAN 27 is €445–455/t CIF inland. UK domestic prices are unchanged from last week at £480–490/t delivered to most of the country.

If gas stays high through the winter, further curtailments will make Europe more reliant on imports and raise replacement costs in the UK. The key question is whether growers will keep paying a high premium for nitrates if imported urea stays available and competitively priced.

Outlook
The short-term balance looks steady. Lower gas prices, improving Gulf flows, a delayed Indian tender and slow Brazilian buying are weighing on urea. European production costs well above import prices should keep a floor under the market, especially for nitrates. An IPL tender late next week is the main near-term support. Progress towards ending the US–Iran war would likely push prices lower.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1994	1.3465	1.1228

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Nov26	174-184	181-191	225-235	450-460