Market Reports

Wheat

Global agricultural markets began 2026 under sustained pressure from ample supplies, favourable weather, and continued speculative selling, with wheat firmly at the centre of market attention. Early in the week, wheat prices were mostly steady to lower, with Chicago briefly posting new contract lows but consistently defending the critical $5.00/bushel support. Despite fund short expansion, wheat demonstrated relative resilience compared with corn and soybeans.

Key Factors:

• Fundamentally, US wheat demand remains a key supportive factor. Export commitments are running 18-19% ahead of last year and well ahead of the USDA’s full-year forecast which is lending support to the global benchmark CBOT market. This strength contrasts with the global backdrop of heavy exporter availability, particularly from the Black Sea, where Russia shipped near record volumes and raised its export outlook. Argentina and Australia are also completing large harvests, reinforcing perceptions of global surplus.
• Mid-week, wheat led a modest recovery as technical support held and short covering emerged ahead of USDA data and index fund rebalancing. Deteriorating US winter wheat conditions added further support, with 40% of the crop now in drought, notably across key HRW states. Kansas City wheat outperformed, reflecting heightened sensitivity to Plains weather risk.
• In Europe and the UK, wheat markets remained subdued but showed signs of tightening spreads and reduced carry, discouraging long term storage of wheat. Domestic spot basis remains strong to incentivise farmer selling in most regions, although some weakness has started to creep into Yorkshire markets following the significant demand profile shifts observed this year.  The question now remains does basis weakness spread out of Yorkshire or does limited farm supply continue to hinder liquidity of trade? 
  
  

Outlook
Overall, while global supply remains ample, wheat continues to outperform within the grain complex, underpinned by strong US exports and rising weather-related risk premiums.

Malting Barley

Old crop malting barley markets remain in a state of inertia with minimal fresh demand and with reports of maltings in Europe closing the outlook for crop 2026 doesn’t look great.

Key Factors:

• Old crop has seen some spot trades over the last week with some merchant shorts looking to cover January positions. This is not surprising given the lack of farmer selling and farmers slow to enter the market after the festive break.
• New crop has seen some trade activity for Jan-Jun 27 positions, and it is possible that we see minimal demand for Jul-Dec 26 with consumers utilising carry-in stocks rather than buying new crop.
• Lower UK spring barley planted area continues to be pressured by growers who are set on planting wheat, therefore any production issues could significantly impact malting prices in the months to come.
  
  

Outlook
Short term upside remains limited due to minimal demand, but uncertainty about new crop production could result in a jump in prices if we see any quality issues here in the UK.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain subdued but supportive due to slow farmer selling and healthy demand, staying competitive domestically despite a lack of global competition. New crop basis edges higher amid caution on crop prospects.

Key Factors:

• Feed barley markets are largely unchanged since before the Christmas break. Farmer selling has been slow over the period, which has kept the market subdued.
• Barley is looking uncompetitive against other products in global destination markets; however, demand continues to come from shorts who continue to battle against a reluctant farmer seller, which keeps feed barley levels supported against its notional feeding value.
• Domestically, feed barley is still pricing reasonably competitively vs wheat and corn, despite efforts to move the spread in recent weeks. As a result, we expect that demand from consumers will continue to come forward, alongside continued high fed-on-farm usage.
• New crop basis is squeezing slowly higher, as the lower crop prospects keep the market cautious. However, we are not seeing much consumer interest today with the spread vs wheat offered much higher than the recent average. Export parity on new crop remains below replacement.
  
  

Outlook
We don’t expect to see much downside in the short term whilst feed demand remains, and farmer selling is slow. We could even see some support as we head into the second half of the season, particularly if short covering continues on FOB/CIF markets.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets emerged from the Christmas period with renewed participation and greater volatility, as China’s re-entry into the soybean market, currency moves, and energy market headlines drove sentiment. Soybeans led early gains, while crude oil remained capped by technical resistance despite geopolitical noise. Canola found support from strong crush margins and currency tailwinds, and MATIF rapeseed focused heavily on key chart levels, struggling to find a sustained bullish narrative amid ample global supply.

Key Factors:

• CBOT soybeans set the tone for the complex this week, initially extending the late 2024 downtrend before rebounding on confirmed and rumoured Chinese buying. Reports of 10+ cargoes, later partially validated by USDA export sales, helped futures recover from early weakness, although gains were uneven as profit taking and currency pressure capped rallies. Meal continued to show relative resilience, reflecting solid demand, while soyoil lagged. Through last year soybeans had a $2.10 range and managed to gain 37 cents through the year.
• Crude remained a background influence rather than a driver, with prices struggling to break the broader downtrend. Venezuela headlines briefly lifted sentiment, but the lack of immediate physical flow changes kept reactions muted. Technically, the market failed at the 50 day moving average and continues to post lower highs, reinforcing bearish momentum. With prices slipping back below key resistance and support levels still several dollars lower, crude offered only limited spill-over support to vegetable oils, keeping energy linked optimism in check.
• Canola futures quietly improved, supported by stronger crush margins, a weaker Canadian dollar, and incremental reductions in commercial stocks as crushers lifted pace. Despite large overall availability and year to date farmer sales running behind average, cash values have not been sufficient to unlock farmer selling. This has helped futures stabilise near the $600 level. Added optimism around improved trade relations with China provided a psychological boost, although the broader market still reflects a well supplied balance sheet and capped rallies. Canola had a near 35% ($200) range through 2025, though only closed $15 lower than where we started.
• MATIF rapeseed continues to be chopped by outside market noise, and like canola, has now pulled back to overhead resistance which lies at the bottom of the range which was key for a lot of 2025. Before finding support we did come within €10 of long term yearly trendline support which should attempt to limit downside again. MATIF rapeseed had a circa €100 range in 2025 and closed €60 down on the year.
  
  

Outlook
Looking ahead, oilseed markets remain highly technical, and headline driven. Soybeans will continue to hinge on the durability of Chinese demand and South American supply flows. Crude oil is likely to stay rangebound unless physical fundamentals shift. Canola needs either improved export demand or higher prices to stimulate farmer selling if crush margins keep interest strong. MATIF rapeseed must reclaim and hold ground above key resistance to change sentiment; without a fresh bullish catalyst, rallies may remain corrective rather than trend changing. Overall, the rapeseed picture remains heavy at present with potential for political change.

Oats

Further export demand into 3^rd country markets continues to support EU milling oat prices and with low prices domestically, it will be interesting to see what the surplus is as we get closer to new crop.

Key Factors:

• Further trades into Turkey are continuing to support EU milling oat prices thanks to more typical Black sea supplies being switched to China.
• Fresh bids into EU for milling oats are few and far between however it is known that millers are well covered with frame agreements and so tonnages will continue to flow once these millers look to price their contracts.
• Feed oats have seen demand into Western Europe over the last month with many cargoes selling from both the Scandinavian and Baltic states.
• Spain is starting to show interest in nearby supplies of feed oats which is surprising given their record crop but any trade will help to support nearby markets.
• Here in the UK, low £/€ continues to make us competitive for export markets and with domestic prices now below export parities we could see a lower likelihood of lower prices in the short term.
• Farmer selling remains poor with many suggesting that values are below cost of production.
• Low milling oat prices are likely to have encouraged greater on farm feed usage and when overlayed with the lack of forage produced it would not be surprising to see a large on farm feed figure this year and therefore a reduction in the carryout figure.
• New crop remains largely unknown with many expecting a significant reduction in plantings thanks to low spot prices and poor gross margins encouraging growers to maximise wheat plantings. This could see a big drop in production and may result in the cyclical bounce we typical experience in oat markets.
  
  

Outlook
Short term we are unlikely to see a significant rally in prices, however if there are planting issues in the spring and a lack of old crop availability then we could see prices rally once more.

Pulses

The first week back after the festive break has been quiet for pulse markets, with little fresh input or clear direction. General consumer disengagement continues, marked by only occasional, fleeting interest in old crop and even less attention toward the new crop. Activity in the middle market remains thin and sporadic.

Key Factors:

• A quiet, slow start this week for UK feed Beans, with another week of near zero reported trade, and the market again broadly devoid of activity. Feed bean values remaining c. £30/mt away from competing against other feedstuffs such as Rapeseed Meal, their general attractiveness into UK feed rations is negligible. Feed demand remains consistently flat, with little fresh interest.
• The Australian new crop harvest has delivered all many buyers hoped, and then some, stymieing any potential North African demand for UK or Baltic origin Human Consumption beans for the remainder of the season. Questions remain around Australian export elevation capacities, and which crops will come to the fore in the fight for space in what is set to be a bustling programme.
• Pea market remains muted as the trade starts the new year with little enthusiasm for buying or selling. Consumers remain largely sidelined, leaving frustration among traders who had hoped to start 2026 with momentum. Despite some seasonal logistical improvements, global pulse markets continue to trade sideways. The absence of progress on a Canada, China trade agreement has left a surplus of yellow peas seeking alternative destinations, while India remains inactive, and Europe appears comfortably supplied. UK domestic demand also lags, weighed down by cautious feed buyers and slow export interest.
• Pea Buyback contract availability is now extremely limited, with most processors and merchants already having secured their volumes for the 2026 crop. New contract opportunities are scarce, reflecting the overall lacklustre tone of the market, and any remaining offers are confined to niche varieties or specific quality parameters.
  
  

Outlook
The outlook for pulse markets continues to look neutral to negative, with them finding few friends in either the feed or human consumption sectors. The ongoing lack of competition against alternative feedstuffs and the growing export pace of Australian new crop all combine to result in a bleak horizon for beans.   

                
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Seed

As planning the 2026 spring drilling campaign gathers pace, seed requirements are now at the forefront.

Key Factors:

• Spring Seed: Laureate continues to lead the way as the number one spring barley, maintaining its dominance across the malting and brewing markets. RGT Planet also delivers consistent strength, while Skyway and CB Score provide dependable agronomic packages. Our pea portfolio: Kabuki, Adder, Daytona, Butterfly and Concerto, offers growers a strong spread of Marrowfat, Large Blue and Yellow options. To strengthen our portfolio further and give our pea crops the best chance of success, all pea seed for 2026 will be supplied with Nuello iN to enhance establishment and maximise yield potential. Nuello iN is also available as an optional treatment across other spring crops.

• Maize Seed: At ADM, our comprehensive maize portfolio spans early to later-maturing varieties, with options suitable for forage, biogas and grain production, ensuring a fit for every system and objective.
• Autumn Seed: There is already significant interest around winter wheat for autumn 2026, with, stand out new variety LG Defiance taking the headlines for its market leading combination of yield and disease resistance, alongside other new group 4 varieties KWS Fowlmere, LG Challenger and KWS Aintree, as well as group 4 soft Sparkler. Each offering distinct strengths to suit a wide range of farm requirements.
  
  

Outlook
With strong demand anticipated for leading spring and autumn varieties, early engagement will be essential to secure preferred options. Looking ahead, a balanced approach that combines proven performers with exciting new genetics will help growers manage risk while capturing yield, quality and agronomic gains for the 2026 season.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices remain subdued near multi-month lows as supply stays ample, while US prices rebound modestly on lower output and stronger LNG demand. 

Key Factors: 

• European gas prices held around €28 per MWh in early January, close to the 20-month low of €26.8 seen in mid-December, as strong supply continued to weigh on the market. 
• Weather forecasts suggest colder conditions may ease later in January, limiting a sustained increase in heating demand. 
• EU gas storage levels are now below the five-year average at under 60%, providing some underlying support despite the current supply comfort. 
• In the US, Henry Hub futures rebounded to around $3.50/MMBtu as Lower-48 production slipped to roughly 109.0 bcfd from December’s record levels. 
• Broader global gas prices remain under pressure amid hopes that progress in Ukraine peace talks could eventually ease sanctions on Russian energy exports. 
  
  

Outlook
European gas prices are likely to remain rangebound at relatively low levels in the near term, with ample LNG supply and moderating weather limiting upside despite below-average storage. In the US, weaker production and record LNG exports provide near-term support, though sustained gains will depend on colder weather materialising later in the winter. 

Ammonia

Prices soften as new supply emerges and CBAM uncertainty weighs on European import appetite. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonia prices are expected to ease through January as additional supply begins to come online, reducing the prolonged tightness seen in the spot market in recent months. 
• The release of official CBAM default values at the end of December 2025 has introduced fresh uncertainty for European buyers. 
• Early market sentiment suggests imports of US origin ammonia into Europe are likely to slow in January, as the published CBAM values effectively price US material out of the market under current assumptions. 
• Importers are hesitant to commit volumes until there is greater clarity on the actual carbon charges they will face and how CBAM will be administered in practice. 
  
  

Outlook
Near term pressure on Ammonia prices looks likely as supply availability improves. However, uncertainty around CBAM implementation is expected to distort European trade flows in the short term, potentially delaying imports and contributing to uneven regional pricing until regulatory clarity improves. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Sulphates soften on weak early-year demand while nitrates hold firm on supply tightness. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonium sulphate prices are expected to soften this week as buying interest remains subdued at the start of the year. 
• Ammonium nitrate and CAN prices are anticipated to remain steady through January, underpinned by relatively tight supply conditions that are limiting downside risk. 
• UAN values are likely to hold stable, with some potential for modest gains as the market awaits updated offers from major producers. 
• Limited liquidity and cautious buyer behaviour continue to characterise the market following year-end. 
  
  

Outlook
Sulphates are likely to face near term pressure until demand improves, while nitrates should remain supported by constrained availability. Clearer price direction for UAN is expected to emerge once new producer offers are issued, which could set the tone for late-January and February business. 

Urea

India tender underpins market while global activity remains muted. 

Key Factors: 

• NFL’s latest urea tender in India set lowest offers at $426.80/t CFR East Coast India and $424.80/t CFR West Coast India. 
• These levels are expected to provide near term support to regional FOB benchmarks, particularly across the Middle East. 
• Outside India, market activity remains limited, with buyers largely on the sidelines at the start of the year. 
• US demand is expected to re-emerge later in January, which could lend additional support to prices. 
  
  

Outlook 
India remains the primary source of market direction in the near term, anchoring sentiment and limiting downside risk. With broader demand still subdued, prices are likely to remain rangebound in the short term, with firmer tones emerging if US buying materialises later in the month. 

Phosphates

Market steadies as weak demand offsets tight supply while India acid talks remain unresolved. 

Key Factors: 

• Granular phosphate fertiliser prices have held relatively steady, with sluggish spot demand balancing ongoing tight availability. 
• Buyers have so far shown limited urgency despite tighter Chinese export restrictions, with little immediate reaction in pricing. 
• Attention remains focused on negotiations for Q1 phosphoric acid contracts to India. 
• Indian buyers are pushing for price reductions, citing recent declines in DAP values. 
• Suppliers are resisting, pointing to exceptionally high feedstock sulphur prices and rising production costs. 
  
  

Outlook 
Near term phosphate prices are likely to remain broadly stable as demand remains subdued and supply constraints persist. Direction will hinge on the outcome of Q1 phosphoric acid settlements in India, which will set the tone for broader phosphate pricing into early 2026. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1522	1.3456	1.1673

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Jan26	147-160	160-170	195-205	395-405