ADM Agriculture Market Report

Grain

Grain markets remained under pressure from abundant US corn stocks, weak US export demand and a strong dollar, while wheat faced heavy global supply. Geopolitical risks in the Black Sea and Red Sea provided intermittent support, but improving harvest prospects and potentially large Black Sea availability, subject to logistics, kept the broader tone bearish ahead of the USDA WASDE which is published tomorrow (Friday 9^th October)

• Corn fell to seven-week lows after US stocks exceeded 2 billion bushels. Weak export demand and a strong dollar added pressure, while crop ratings implied a 178.0 bpa yield. Bulls need a meaningful USDA yield reduction or adverse South American weather to regain momentum.
• Wheat remained constrained by poor US demand, with inspections 35% below last year and sales 31% lower. Funds continued to reduce exposure. Large Russian supplies and competitive Black Sea wheat outweighed concerns over disrupted Ukrainian logistics.
• Matif found support from a weaker euro, strong French export demand and Black Sea shipping disruption. Saudi Arabia bought 683,000 tonnes, above expectations, signalling attractive prices, although the purchase was reportedly below replacement value.
• Russia and Ukraine remain the main wheat supply overhang, with potentially record stocks. Australia and Argentina are also contributing sizeable supplies, while EU exports could exceed expectations if the current pace continues, potentially tightening European stocks.
• Funds were net sellers across agriculture for a fourth consecutive week, cutting exposure particularly in corn and wheat. US harvest conditions are improving, while South American rainfall is broadly favourable for planting, limiting near-term bullish weather risk.
  
  

The USDA WASDE remains the immediate catalyst, with US corn yield and carryout central to direction. Wheat faces a difficult balance between strong European demand and abundant Black Sea, Australian and Argentine supplies. Currency movements, US export demand, South American weather and Black Sea logistics should continue to drive volatility.

Feed Barley

Feed barley prices have softened marginally, although restricted availability and a continued reluctance among growers to market grain are helping to underpin values against a backdrop of subdued export interest.

• Feed barley markets have seen modest downward pressure over the past week, but prices have shown greater resilience than the wider futures market. Tight domestic supply continues to provide support, with barley maintaining a relatively attractive position against alternative feed grains.
  
  
• Grower engagement remains limited, with only modest volumes continuing to move into the market. Demand for grain retained for on-farm use is likely to remain strong, particularly across livestock-intensive regions, further restricting the volume available to commercial buyers.
  
  
• Scottish barley continues to show a theoretical export margin into Ireland for nearby shipment, although actual trade remains difficult to execute. Improved forage availability has reduced import requirements, while sizeable stocks already held at Irish ports are dampening fresh demand. Meanwhile, export opportunities from England remain commercially unviable.
  
  

Looking ahead, broader global market movements are likely to dictate outright feed barley prices. Nevertheless, domestic supply constraints and an encouraging demand outlook should help maintain relative price strength through the winter months.

Rapeseed

Overview

Oilseed markets were mixed this week, with US soybeans initially finding support from improving Chinese demand expectations before giving back some gains ahead of our next USDA report. Canola also saw increased volatility as harvest selling pressure returned, while crude oil remained caught between improving shipping flows and wider geopolitical concerns. MATIF rapeseed followed the broader complex, with technical support holding the market within its established wedge pattern. EU physical trade remains slow, with logistics continuing to influence nearby values.

Key factors

• Soybeans: CBOT soybeans initially came under pressure from light demand and a stronger US dollar, but sentiment improved sharply following comments from Trump regarding increased Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. The market is now looking for evidence of fresh Chinese buying when they return from Golden Week. US crop conditions slipped 1% to 57% good/excellent, while harvest progress at 25% is the slowest in six years. Wet weather has also raised some concerns around yield potential. However, with the USDA report due tomorrow, traders are likely to remain cautious, with the recent rally needing fresh demand confirmation to extend.
  
  
• Crude oil: Crude remained highly volatile, initially finding support before reversing lower following reports of improving oil flows. Europe’s agreement to release strategic reserves also added pressure, with 50 million barrels of crude and 50 million barrels of diesel due to be released. Shipping data continues to point towards improving logistics, although the market remains sensitive to developments around supply and wider geopolitical risk. Technically, crude has managed to hold trendline support, but the inability to sustain rallies suggests the market still lacks a clear directional catalyst.
  
  
• Canadian canola: Canola saw a sharp reversal lower after strong gains earlier in the week. Harvest progress remains generally good, encouraging farmer selling while cash prices remain attractive. Last week saw the second-highest weekly delivery total in more than 25 years, highlighting the volume of producer selling currently reaching the market. A storm bringing rain and snow could cause some late harvest delays, but with much of the crop already harvested, the market is increasingly focused on the pace of farmer selling and the ability of demand to absorb these volumes.
  
  
• MATIF rapeseed: MATIF rapeseed remains firmly rangebound, currently trading back towards the lower boundary of the wedge pattern that has been developing since July. The Feb contract continues to hold above technical support, but the market is still struggling to establish a fresh high. Nearby Nov futures are increasingly influenced by physical fundamentals, with low river levels creating logistical difficulties and putting significant pressure on spot values. The large open interest in November and the significant discount to February also point towards continued rolling activity. A decisive break from the wedge will likely be required before a stronger trend develops.
  
  

Outlook

The focus now turns to the USDA report and whether fresh Chinese soybean demand can provide enough momentum to lift the wider complex. Canola is likely to remain pressured by harvest selling, although weather disruptions could add short-term volatility. For MATIF rapeseed, the technical picture remains neutral while prices sit within the wedge, with support currently holding. A breakout remains the key signal, while nearby logistics and slow physical trade could continue to weigh on the front end.

Pulses

Another quiet week for pulse markets, with both peas and beans struggling for friends. The crop continues to be redistributed around the UK, with the expectation of some unusual flows compared to normal, as the demand profile becomes very localised around certain consumption points. Beans are still taking some nominal direction from London Wheat futures, however the relationship is starting to creak. Overall, caution is still the key buzzword and sentiments in pulse markets.

Key Factors

• UK domestic feed values continue to be the best paying market in town for beans, although with the Poultry sector satiated for a minute or two, the market is starting to lose a chunk of interest. With NGFI pricing where it is, it is unlikely that we will see fresh demand for beans any time soon at these pricing parities. The limited demand that we see is still mainly coming from poultry, with consumers happy to cover requirements on a comparatively hand-to-mouth basis as they wait to see where pricing settles out.
  
  
• Attention is certainly building towards new crop bean drilling as the weather improves and cropping becomes more and more of a topic. This week saw the release of the arbitrated sugarbeet values for CY27, and whilst it offers reasonable gross margins as a break crop, pulses are also a strong alternative if still considering what to grow, and it is worth remembering that they’ll come with less follow on land work to get the field straight if you’re in the late lifting window. Aside from pulses, winter cereals and OSR are generally establishing well, while soil moisture is providing a reasonable backdrop, although we could do with more rainfall. Growers will now be thinking about seed-bed preparation, soil indices and nutrition to give beans the best possible start.
  
  
• The pea market has remained fairly steady over the past week, with limited fresh activity and buyers continuing to take a cautious approach. There is still good availability of peas across the main origins, although recent harvest progress and quality will become increasingly important as the market moves further into the season. Demand remains relatively subdued, with little evidence of buyers needing to step into the market aggressively.
  
  
• Looking ahead, the market is likely to remain rangebound in the short term. Competition from alternative origins continues to limit any significant upside, while a lack of strong demand is preventing sellers from gaining much momentum. We will be watching buying activity closely, particularly whether increased demand starts to emerge as we move further into the new crop.
  
  

Outlook
The pulse market is likely to remain cautious and rangebound in the near term, with subdued demand and competition from alternative origins limiting upside. Attention will increasingly shift towards new crop drilling, with soil conditions, seed-bed preparation and nutrition key areas of focus. Beans may continue to take some direction from wheat, although this relationship is becoming less reliable as localised supply and demand increasingly shape the market.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Winter drilling is still progressing well across much of the country, with recent rainfall providing welcome moisture to support establishment. 

Key Factors:

For winter wheat, we continue to hold good stocks across a range of leading varieties. Including Group 1 varieties Arlington, KWS Vibe and Crusoe which are proving popular choices. In the biscuit sector, Bamford and KWS Solitaire continue to attract interest, whilst KWS Scope remains available for growers seeking a high-performing hard feed option.

Conventional feed barley availability remains very limited. Craft malting barley remains available – a well‑established variety trusted by growers for its reliability. We are also seeing high demand for the hybrid varieties this season, mainly due to the recognised advantages of strong vigour and valuable grass weed suppression. 

Elsewhere, Mascani remains the dominant winter oat variety, maintaining its position as a reliable choice backed by both growers and end users. In winter beans, Vespa remains our recommended winter bean variety, sitting among the highest‑yielding options on the Descriptive List.

Beyond the Main Crops, Interest in small seeds remains. Demand continues for grass leys, cover crop mixtures and SFI-focused options, with many growers choosing tailored solutions designed to meet individual requirements.

Outlook
As autumn progresses, availability is expected to tighten across several varieties. Growers yet to secure requirements or requiring top ups, are encouraged to discuss options with their farm trader to ensure access to suitable varieties.

Fertiliser

Nitrogen market – softer, but uncertainty remains

The international nitrogen market has softened in recent weeks, with buyers generally remaining cautious and waiting for further direction from the market.

Global urea prices have been under pressure as demand has slowed and buyers have largely stayed on the sidelines. Middle East granular urea was reported at around $430–440/t fob on 6 October, down $10/t on the previous day, while Egyptian urea for Europe was also lower at $490–510/t fob.

The main focus for the market is currently India. Indian importer IPL is looking to purchase around 1.7 million tonnes of urea, with loading required by 1 December. The outcome of this tender is likely to provide an important indication of where international urea prices move next. Market expectations for the tender price are wide, ranging from the high $370s to around $400/t CFR.

For UK farmers, this creates an interesting buying opportunity but also a degree of uncertainty. A weak Indian tender could put further pressure on international urea values, whereas stronger-than-expected buying could quickly provide support.

European market

European demand remains relatively quiet, although there are significant differences between countries and regions. French granular urea is currently reported at approximately €545–555/t FCA, with market activity described as quiet. Importantly, European buyers are not fully covered for the season, with coverage estimated at around 60% in northern France and no more than 50% in the south.

This is an important point for UK growers. Although current international prices have softened, a significant proportion of European demand is still to be covered. If buyers return to the market at the same time as Indian demand increases, the current weakness in prices could prove temporary.

Gas remains a key risk! Natural gas remains one of the biggest variables for European nitrogen production. European TTF gas was trading at approximately €75/MWh on 6 October, having increased by 3.1% on the previous day. This matters because gas is a major input into the production of ammonia and, ultimately, nitrogen fertiliser. Higher gas prices increase the cost of European nitrogen production and can provide support to fertiliser prices even when global demand is relatively subdued.

The market therefore has two opposing forces at present

Bearish

• Sluggish global urea demand
• Buyers delaying purchases
• Large Indian tender creating uncertainty
• Available October production in some exporting regions
  
  

Bullish

• Higher European gas prices
• Significant European requirements still to be covered
• Freight costs increasing
• Potential for stronger Indian demand
• Ongoing geopolitical and supply-chain risks
  
  

Urea remains competitive. The latest international nutrient values continue to demonstrate the competitiveness of urea against nitrate-based nitrogen on a cost-per-unit-of-N basis. The Argus assessment on 1 October put Middle East granular urea at approximately $8.42/unit of N, compared with $9.71/unit of N for Baltic AN. This reinforces the economic argument for farmers to consider the most cost-effective source of nitrogen rather than focusing solely on the price per tonne.

For UK growers, the important comparison is the cost per kilogram of available nitrogen delivered to the farm, alongside application strategy, spreading conditions and nitrogen-use efficiency. Where appropriate, inhibited urea can also provide an attractive alternative to straight AN, particularly where the objective is to reduce the cost of the nitrogen programme while maintaining application flexibility.

Supply and logistics – Freight is becoming an increasingly important part of the international fertiliser equation. For example, freight from the Middle East to the US Gulf was assessed at around $153/t, while Middle East-to-Brazil freight was around $144/t. Although these routes are not directly representative of UK delivered costs, they demonstrate how quickly logistics can influence the economics of moving nitrogen around the world. The UK market is therefore not simply driven by the headline international urea price. Exchange rates, freight, availability, production costs and import economics all feed into the final price paid by UK farmers.

What does this mean for UK farmers? The current market does not give a clear signal that fertiliser prices are about to move significantly higher or lower. Instead, we are in a market where there is potential for further downside, but also several factors capable of reversing that trend relatively quickly.

For farmers who still have a significant proportion of their 2027 nitrogen requirement to buy, the current market therefore presents a decision rather than a simple “buy” or “wait” signal. A sensible approach may be to consider staged purchasing, securing a proportion of the requirement at attractive levels while retaining some flexibility should the international market weaken further. Farmers should also look beyond the headline price per tonne. The most relevant calculation is the cost per kilogram of nitrogen, considering the analysis of the product, application rate and any inhibitor or stabilisation technology being used.

Key points for UK growers

1. International urea prices have softened.

Middle East granular urea is currently around $430–440/t fob, with Egyptian urea at $490–510/t fob for Europe.

2. India could provide the next major market signal.

A 1.7 million tonne Indian tender is being watched closely by the international market.

3. European demand is not fully covered.

Significant requirements remain to be purchased, particularly in parts of Europe.

4. Gas prices remain a risk.

Higher European gas prices could increase the cost of domestic nitrogen production and support fertiliser prices.

5. Urea continues to offer a competitive cost per unit of nitrogen.

Current international nutrient values favour urea against AN on a unit-N basis.

6. Don’t try to pick the absolute market bottom.

For many farmers, spreading purchases across the buying period can reduce the risk of making one large purchase at the wrong point in the market.

Outlook

The nitrogen market enters October with a softer tone, but it would be premature to assume that prices will continue falling.

The result of the Indian tender, European buying activity, natural gas prices, and freight costs will all be important over the coming weeks.

For UK farmers, the message is therefore one of active management rather than simply waiting for a lower price. Those with substantial 2027 nitrogen requirements should be reviewing their position now, comparing products on a cost-per-kilogram-of-N basis and considering whether a staged purchasing strategy makes sense for their business.

The market may offer further opportunities, but the cost of waiting is that the market can move higher just as quickly as it can move lower.

*International prices are indicative market assessments and should not be taken as UK delivered farm prices.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.179	1.320	1.119

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct 26	£174-184	£196-206	£235-245	£450-460