Market Report Thursday 15th June 2023

Malting Barley

• Malting barley markets have rallied strongly again on the week, as prolonged dry weather in Denmark in particular spooks the market. Local commentators are talking of yield losses up to 20% and as a result co-ops look to buy back contracts they had sold on the FOB market.
• This buying interest is falling on deaf ears however, as farmers are reluctant to sell malting barley across the Continent, a common theme for all commodities. It now depends on the harvest in other northern EU origins, as if French and UK crops perform then the very localised Scandinavian issue becomes less significant.
• The French have begun harvesting their excellent looking barley crop, and in the UK crops are progressing at pace following the recent hot/dry weather. It looks like most spring crops will benefit from some showers over the next week as well.

Rapeseed

• As expected the Federal Reserve held US interest rates unchanged after 10 consecutive hikes. However, they did mention the possibility of several more increases before the end of the calendar year.
• Friday’s bearish USDA report was essentially dismissed on everyone’s return yesterday morning and as expected the trade’s attention returned to weather developments.
• Whilst some areas of the US received rain over the weekend it wasn’t as much as farmers had hoped, and soil moisture levels remain low. Showers are expected in the longer-term forecast, but how much rain each area will receive is still unknown.  This week crop ratings for US soybeans dipped slightly, with Good/Excellent ratings down 3% to 59% from last week.
• There is little to report out of South America. Whilst USDA juggled production estimates, they fell in line with expectations. Subsequently, CONAB estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 155.7mln t vs the 154.8mln t in the last report (125.5mln t last year). Exports were seen at 95.6 mln t.
• No official sales were made to China last week though USDA did announce a sale of 197,000t of US soybeans to an unknown destination. However, US beans still trade at a premium above South American offers.
• Energy markets fell back from recent highs on renewed concerns over global demand, China was rumoured to be selling oil rather than buying it. Veg oils traded off the highs we made last Friday. Palm production for May came in at 1.51mln t vs expectations of 1.45mln t.
• Winnipeg Canola and Matif rapeseed both took back previous gains yesterday. Canola closed $5 down, farmers taking the opportunity to sell some length on the price rally, mainly old crop. On new crop, farmers remain nervous about selling given the risk of being caught out with the drought. Rains have been moving across the Canola belt over the last week but missed South Alberta and South Manitoba.  
• MATIF rapeseed and Canadian Canola prices tried to break higher this week but lacked a new story in the short-term to push prices to new highs. Despite the price rise the market lacked any significant farmer selling as we head into the final few weeks of the season. The firmer Euro/Dollar added pressure whilst the trade is mindful to watch any weather events in the upcoming weeks.  
• Sterling trades close to 1.1700 which equally added pressure to UK prices.

Seed

• Winter Wheat Champion so far looks to be a stand-out variety for cleanliness, which is reflected the AHDB recommended list Septoria score of 8.1 and very high untreated yields. ADM has a great autumn portfolio with a variety of options to suit all situations on farm.
• Our oilseed rape portfolio consists of some of the most vigorous varieties in the marketplace, to give the crop the best chance of getting away from the flea beetle in the autumn. LG Aviron and DK Excited are also supported by an establishment scheme to give extra peace of mind. 
• When thinking about OSR this year, why not take a look at our companion crop mixtures? They are great for helping to aid establishment by deterring flea beetle and improving soil health.
• Our mixes include fenugreek, buckwheat and berseem clover:
• Berseem clover has nitrogen-fixing properties and fast growth and establishment.
• Fenugreek deters flea beetle due to its natural odour, protecting the OSR plants.
• Buckwheat provides a dense canopy over the OSR crop and is an amazing weed suppressor.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

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Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.