Market reports

Wheat

Global grain markets saw a volatile week, with early optimism from productive geopolitical talks and previous weather worries eventually easing prices, with sharp selloffs driven by improved crop outlooks and bearish technical breaks. European and UK markets hit contract lows amid pressure from big crop prospects, and weak export demand, all despite poor farmer engagement. Markets await clarity from the upcoming USDA WASDE report.

Key Factors

• Initial market strength was supported by positive US-China dialogue and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. However, no concrete trade agreements emerged, limiting sustained gains for corn and beans.
• Improved weather in the US and another week-on-week uplift in crop ratings, especially for winter wheat, combined with upgraded Russian production estimates (SovEcon increased CY25 1.8mmt to 82.8mmt), pressured global prices midweek, signalling better global supply potential.
• CBOT, MATIF, and London wheat all showed bearish technical signals after early rallies. Fund managers extended net short positions, particularly in corn, while speculative longs failed to sustain momentum.
• MATIF and London wheat hit contract lows as large, expected crops, and strong euro weighed on prices, while slow farmer selling kept declines in check. UK export competitiveness is compromised by cheaper Black Sea offers, and a limited demand pull from typical destination markets like Spain, where domestic crop show huge potential.
• Traders are cautious ahead of the USDA June WASDE. While major surprises are not expected, historical trends suggest a likely uptick in US wheat production. Any deviation could drive price action.
  
  

Outlook
With global crop conditions improving and bearish trends confirmed technically, short-term downside risks remain in play. However, low farmer selling, and potential short covering could trigger bounces, and in an otherwise bearish market should be viewed as key selling windows for undersold farmers across the near continent. Markets will pivot on the USDA WASDE report; absent surprises & price pressure may persist unless weather or trade dynamics shift meaningfully.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets have drifted sideways on the back of the recent beneficial rains and all eyes are now on the weather forecast and how the spring drought may have impacted the quality of the barley.

Key Factors

• The recent weather pattern of showers and sunshine across the UK has pushed the FOB values lower, the domestic markets are holding firm with the lack of farmer engagement, and the market remains illiquid.
• We have seen some consumer engagement this week albeit once covered the buyer soon retreated and we are back to chasing demand.
  
  

Outlook
We revert to weather watching and a quiet period in the weeks leading up to harvest, when we should see a clearer picture once quality is known.  As for market direction, this will be led by quality versus demand which at this point are both unknowns.

Feed Barley

Another quiet week for feed barley markets as the old crop season comes to an end and everyone now turns to new crop harvest which looks imminent given current weather patterns.

Key Factors

• Old crop is largely done and dusted with only a few weeks remaining in the season leading merchants and consumers to tidy up any final shorts on execution
• Whilst old crop has remained supported as we approach harvest, new crop basis has weakened slightly as consumer demand dries up and export business is non-existent
• However, lack of farmer selling continues to provide a floor to new crop basis with many now holding out it seems until we reach harvest proper and combines start to roll
  
  

Outlook
UK barley remains expensive versus other competing origins, but with harvest only now a few weeks away subject to weather, grower selling pressure could change this. For now, the market’s focus remains tidying up old crop execution and preparing for new crop volumes coming online next month, for now basis remains fixed but we expect to change when grower selling kicks in.

Rapeseed

Markets have been largely steady and reflective ahead of the USDA WASDE report, with attention focused on U.S.–China trade discussions in London. Soybean and oilseed markets are influenced by weather conditions, energy prices, currency moves, and export data. U.S.–China Talks: Officials from both countries have resumed trade discussions in London. While these talks could open the door for a revised Phase 1 agreement, there is no concrete progress yet. Sanction Flexibility: Reports suggest that President Trump may allow partial easing of sanctions to move negotiations forward, though agricultural commodities are not expected to be a priority in the early stages.

Key Factors

• CBOT Soybeans: Prices have shown little gain in the last few sessions reflecting a market that is currently cautious and lacking strong direction ahead of key reports. Soymeal & Soy-oil: Soymeal followed soybeans down on weaker demand signals, while soy-oil bucked the trend, climbing on the back of stronger energy markets and a softening Dollar. Soy-oil also gained support from U.S. legislative discussions favouring a gradual phase-out of clean energy tax credits.
• From a weather perspective, conditions remain broadly favourable for the soybean crop over the next 10–14 days, with average temperatures and timely rains. This stable outlook caps any major risk premium from weather. Soybean crop conditions improved by 1% to 68% good/excellent, and 90% of the crop is now planted — above average for this time of year.
• Brazil: Persistent heavy rainfall in the south is expected to cause localized flooding, potentially impacting logistics and crop development.
• Argentina: Dry weather continues, helping soybean harvest reach 89% completion — slightly behind the average but improving week-on-week.
• Crude Oil: WTI crude oil surged nearly 4% due to renewed Middle East tensions. This injected a risk premium into broader markets and supported related commodities like soy-oil. Though from a biofuel sentiment, Soyoil also found support from speculation around U.S. biofuel policy reforms and possible new agreements that could boost demand. Palm Oil, despite recent weakness, Malaysian palm oil showed resilience. Production in May is estimated at 1.77 MMT — up 5% from April — but stock levels remain high, which cap price gains in the coming sessions.
• In Canadian, Canola prices are showing modest strength. Dry weather earlier in the week and stronger nearby prices are encouraging farmer selling. Rain is expected to return, but the recent dryness has temporarily supported values.
• As for MATIF rapeseed, prices initially hit €490 but failed to sustain those levels, easing back as the Euro strengthened. The market remains quiet overall, with little trade volume in old or new crop. Friday’s close at €485.75 put prices €5 off recent highs, suggesting a period of consolidation. The recent move in the Euro/Dollar is causing some significant price pressure in recent sessions.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of the USDA WASDE report. While no major surprises are expected from the report, the combination of steady U.S. crop conditions, volatile energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainty — particularly U.S.–China trade talks — continues to shape sentiment. Currency moves and biofuel policy speculation are also influencing price direction, especially in soy-oil and rapeseed. For now, sideways trade is likely, with a watchful eye on any policy or weather developments.

Oats

Continued light rain and above average temperatures across Europe brings further relief to oat crops, however it has been another quiet week of farmer selling.

Key Factors

• Demand for new crop milling oats remains slow across the whole of Europe, a trend which has built over the last season. With the high prices we have seen over the last couple of seasons, this will likely have influenced millers and prompted their search for other origins and alternative substitutes.

• The Spanish harvest draws near, and crop analysts are still forecasting a strong production year across Iberia. If the crop has also held on to the quality, keep an eye out for Spanish oats keeping prices under pressure as traders look for outlets that traditionally they have not been competitive towards.
• Here in the UK, another week of prolonged gentle rain and above average temperatures is help rejuvenate the crop and help get it back on track. Whilst there are still some concerns about what lasting impact will be seen from the early dryness to both yield and quality potential, the pressure is certainly starting to ease.
  
  

Outlook
The next week’s weather again looks favourable for the coming oat crop, we just need more of the same. However, as the crops prospects continue to look more optimistic, more of the same is needed to sustain developing oat crops and farmer selling will be needed to pressure prices lower. 

Pulses

Whilst Pulses may be quiet at this time of year, there is certainly growing optimism out there towards the prospects of the new crop, with weather patterns remaining beneficial. Sporadic interest has been seen on both old and new crop, although with limited trade. Sterling is remaining firm vs the US Dollar, meaning that UK pulses continue to struggle to catch much of a break on export markets.

Key Factors

• Old crop pulse markets remain slow, with limited trade as the last of the shorts are filled in. With an inverse into the new crop positions, growers are starting to come forward with unsold old crop parcels, although homes are rapidly filling in, so it is worth marketing any remaining old crop beans sooner rather than later.

• GBP remains firm, having closed at 1.3545last night, and currently trading around the 1.3575 level at the time of writing. This is hitting feed bean competitiveness on two fronts – UK beans look less attractive to the export markets due to the firm GBP, especially the Baltic, which is c. £10/mt ahead of the UK at the moment on one front, whilst on the other, they are struggling for internal traction, as the firm GBP is helping imported feedstuffs such as DDGs, Soymeal and Rapemeal all look very competitive where they are typically priced in a non-GBP currency. Feed beans are c. £45-50/mt too expensive to feature unanimously compound rations and need to be c. £25/mt lower to buy some demand in to the more niche diets which can afford to pay a premium.
• The weather outlook continues to look supportive for pulses, with yet another 15-25mm of rainfall in the forecast for the UK in the coming week, as well as slightly above average temperatures for this time of year. As with previous weeks, this weather pattern will no doubt remain supportive for plant development and yield potential.
• Weather developments will be critical in the coming months across key growing regions to secure a strong pulse harvest. While parts of Canada experienced beneficial rainfall last week, conditions have been dry over the past few days. No major concerns are anticipated as long as forecasted rains arrive in the right areas.
• Meanwhile, old crop Pea markets have effectively dried up for the season. New crop prices remain largely sideways week-on-week, with minimal farmer selling activity. Buyers are adopting a hand-to-mouth approach, awaiting greater clarity on crop size before committing to larger purchases.
  
  

Outlook
With prolonged favourable weather patterns, optimism towards new crop prospects continue to improve. Expect new crop feed beans to start showing signs of weakness as the yield potential becomes clearer and in the face of aggressively priced imported feedstuffs. Human Consumption crops are relatively undiscussed at this stage for new crop, although expect this to change as harvest nears.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

With a change in the weather over the last few days, the growing crop will benefit from the longer warmer days helping with grain fill as we move closer to the beginning of harvest. Thoughts from across different regions are indicating the first barleys may see the combine either last week of June or 1^st week of July if the weather pattern continues.

Key Factors

• Interest in the new varieties of wheat continues following various trials days across the UK, varieties that have been catching the eye have been RGT Hexton a new group 4 soft, LG Defiance for next year but those growing to achieve milling, KWS Vibe & SY Cheer look clean and appear to be handling the present disease pressures at this time.
• Interest in the Oilseed rape crop has really picked up on the new introductions of Karat, Maverick, Hinsta and for those who need a clubroot variety Crusoe. Existing varieties LG Academic and Aurelia look well in the field and repeat orders are now appearing. With the crop value remaining at reasonable levels, we are seeing orders appearing so our advice would be to order your variety of choice to avoid possible disappointment with a likely increase in the UK rape area. To go along side your rape crop have you considered companion cropping to help toward giving the oilseed rape crop a better chance of success?  We have several options available including the most popular species – Fenugreek, Buckwheat and Berseem clover.
• ADM Agriculture have a wide range of buyback contracts available on wheat, barley, oats, pulses and many other commodities which can help to increase farm income when its needed. To ensure you get the right choice for your situation, please consider booking your seed requirement early to with the buyback option.
• We have seen good early interest in the Winter Hybrid Barley with the new introduction of KWS Inys with its improved logging resistance of double 8 treated and untreated and much improved resistance score for brackling compared to other varieties. SY Quantock shows increased yield over the benchmark variety SY Kingsbarn and for those looking at situations that require BYDV , SY Kestrel is creating interest.
• The cereals 2025 event proved to be an interesting event showing the disease differences  across the site from different angles with the opinions voiced by the breeders and the independents such as NIAB, It’s always good to get an alternative view.
  
  

Outlook
With some decisions now starting to be made, we here at ADM Agriculture strongly believe that we have all the key factors to help with planning and marketing your crop. Strong links with the UK’s best breeders gives us the insight and knowledge of varieties which runs alongside our experienced team of market strategists to hopefully help lay the plans for your success.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

EU Expected to Finalise Fertiliser Tariffs Today: Long-Term Shift for Russian Imports Begins 1 July

The European fertiliser market is poised for structural change as the EU is expected to formally adopt sweeping tariff measures on Russian and Belarusian fertiliser imports from 1 July 2025. The phased levies—starting at €40–45/t plus 6.5% ad valorem, rising to €315–430/t by 2028—will apply to key nitrogen and phosphate products including urea, AN, CAN, UAN, DAP, MAP, and NPKs.

Despite some legislative ambiguity over import thresholds—stemming from a key wording change in the final text—the measure marks a major long-term shift. While the near-term impact on pricing and supply dynamics may be muted, particularly as European producers continue to face headwinds, the tariffs are expected to progressively reduce competitive pressure on domestic manufacturers over the coming years. Markets will closely monitor how volumes respond in the early phase and whether legal or procedural challenges to the final text arise

Natural Gas
Hot weather and LNG competition drive European gains; US futures soften on export slowdowns.

Key Factors

• European gas futures rose above €36/MWh as cooling demand surged amid a continent-wide heatwave, with forecasts showing continued high temperatures.
• European gas storage stands at just over 50%, well below average following a winter low of 33.5%, raising summer restocking urgency.
• Tight global LNG supply faces increasing competition as summer demand builds in both Europe and Asia.
• Norwegian gas flows remain disrupted due to maintenance, constraining regional supply.
• US gas futures fell below $3.6/MMBtu as spring maintenance cuts LNG feed gas demand to 13.8 bcfd from April’s 16.0 bcfd high.
• US production holds steady at 105.2 bcfd, but storage levels remain 5% above average, with strong injections forecast to continue.
  
  

Outlook
Europe’s heat-driven gains may extend as restocking needs and LNG competition escalate. US prices remain rangebound, with maintenance-led demand drops offset by weather-related cooling needs and ample storage.

Ammonia
Market holds steady, but fundamentals in the West suggest downside risk remains.

Key Factors

• Prices remain largely stable on both sides of the Suez, with no significant shifts in supply or demand this week.
• In the West, ample availability and tepid demand continue to weigh on sentiment, keeping pressure on spot pricing.
• June’s Tampa contract settlement will be closely watched as a key signal of broader market direction.
• East of Suez, prices appear to be nearing a floor as producers hold firm amid limited demand.
  
  

Outlook
The ammonia market looks steady short term, but Western benchmarks could soften further unless demand rebounds. Buyers remain cautious, and any sustained price support will likely depend on tighter supply or seasonal demand recovery later in Q3.

Nitrates

UK AN offers hold firm as CF’s pricing undercuts importers hopes; European season advances steadily.

Key Factors

• New season offers across Europe continue to move forward, with producers now targeting August deliveries.
• UAN demand in France has picked up, driven by supply concerns and limited forward cover.
• In the UK, CF has offered October/November tonnes at around £355/t delivered on farm—still below import parity, restricting the viability of imported AN.
• Importers remain hesitant, citing unattractive margins, which may lead to tighter AN availability in early-season delivery windows.
  
  

Outlook
European nitrates markets remain stable with steady progression into the new season. UK supply could tighten meaningfully later this year if import volumes fail to materialise under current pricing dynamics. Early buyer interest may intensify if alternative supply sources remain uncompetitive.

Urea

India’s tender draws global focus; NOLA softens but UK prices surge on shifting sentiment.

Key Factors

• India’s 1.5 Mt NFL tender for shipment by 31 July is expected to draw significant July availability, particularly out of North Africa.
• European demand is tapering, placing pressure on North African producers who may need to adjust prices downward to secure sales.
• Brazil remains quiet, with buyers awaiting pricing clarity from the Indian tender before stepping in.
• US NOLA urea continues to correct lower in a quiet market—June barge trades fell to $345/st, then $343/st FOB, from $355/st last week.
• Russian producers suggest shipments to the US may slow if prices fall below $365/st FOB NOLA.
• In the UK, urea prices have jumped by £20/t as many importers withdraw offers and revise upwards, reversing earlier season softness.
  
  

Outlook
India’s tender will be the defining factor for global direction in the near term. While NOLA softness may persist short-term, increased competition from India could tighten availability into August. UK prices are likely to remain firm as traders reassess supply risks and forward demand.

Phosphates

Prices surge across regions; tight supply and aggressive buying continue to fuel upward momentum.

Key Factors

• India DAP offers reached $757–764/t CFR last week — up more than $120/t since mid-March — as importers scramble for June/July cargoes.
• A late-June Jordan tender awarded in the mid-$750s/t FOB suggests further upside is likely.
• Latin America: Russian and Moroccan MAP sales for July hit $780–790s/t CFR, sharply higher than the $750s/t seen for June.
• Ethiopia remains active, closing another restricted DAP tender on 10 June, having already purchased over 1 Mt in 2025 — tightening global supply further.
  
  

Outlook
With India, Latin America, and Ethiopia all active buyers amid constrained supply, prices are likely to remain firm or increase through July. Limited Chinese exports and global logistical constraints continue to cap availability, while demand in key regions shows little sign of cooling.

Potash

India’s new benchmark sets floor; market eyes China’s next move.

Key Factors

• India settled its MOP import contract at $349/t CFR, up $65/t from the previous agreement — establishing a new global floor price.
• Southeast Asia expected to follow upward as buyers benchmark against India.
• China remains the next major buyer to settle. Market participants are awaiting the 2025 contract.
• China imported 970,000 t of MOP in May, bringing Jan–May total to 5.7 Mt, stable year-on-year.
  
  

Outlook
India’s deal will buoy potash prices across Asia. All eyes are now on China’s settlement, which could solidify bullish sentiment further into Q3.

Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1790	1.3545	1.1488

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
June25	140-152	153-168	210-220	410-430