Market reports

Wheat

US grains staged a late-August recovery, led by corn and wheat on short covering, strong export demand, and Brazilian ethanol expansion plans, whilst Europe slumped to fresh contract lows under the weight of record harvests. Global trade flows remain robust from Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina, while macro and geopolitical risks injected volatility across the commodity space.

Key Factors

• Chicago corn broke above its 50-day moving average, supported by strong export commitments and weaker crop ratings. Wheat gained on short covering, while soybeans lagged amid heavy Brazilian competition.
• Amaggi and Inpasa announced three new bioethanol plants in Brazil’s Mato Grosso region, potentially lifting domestic corn use by 14mmt by 2027, reinforcing bullish demand signals and underpinning US corn exports.
• MATIF wheat hit contract lows as the harvest squeeze ended and Russian FOB offers fell. EU wheat output was raised to 128mmt, but corn trimmed to 57.6mmt due to drought, offering only limited support.
• The Black Sea has been a dominant force in the market lately. Russia exported 4mmt of wheat in August, with SovEcon lifting full-year forecasts to 43.7mmt. Ukraine shipped 1.89mmt, double July’s pace. Further afield, Australia also raised wheat output to 33.8mmt, adding to global supply.
• Closer to home here in the UK, domestic feed wheat basis is firm on high milling pass rates, which are stifling feed flows. Quality concerns leave surplus exportability uncertain, keeping the UK at the back of the global queue despite paper surpluses.
  
  

Outlook
Corn technicals and strong demand underpin US markets, but global wheat oversupply continues to cap rallies. Europe faces relentless supply pressure and weak export competitiveness. UK markets feel tighter than balances suggest, while geopolitics and macro volatility—FX, crude oil, and fund flows—keep overall grain market direction choppy and risk-driven.

Malting Barley

Malting barley prices are falling with premiums as the market continues to interpret a sufficient balance sheet despite the mixed bag of quality produced in the UK this year.

Key Factors

• Malting barley markets continue to feel the pressure, and prices are once again lower on the week, despite a lack of farmer selling.
• Premiums are still more than £20 depending on location, arguably still overvalued with malting demand lagging.
• The malting barley FOB market continues to be forced lower again by continental traders, confident of the EU surplus, which continues to undermine domestic prices.
• Low Nitrogen (max 1.65%) barley remains in short supply and is attracting a premium over max 1.85%.
  
  

Outlook
Malting barley premiums are likely to come under further pressure, as the malting industry remains confident of this year’s supply.

Feed Barley

Barley prices are under pressure despite slow farmer selling, due to weak domestic and export demand, an oversupplied Scottish market, aggressive low-priced Scandinavian shipments.

Key Factors

• Barley prices continue to feel pressure on the same theme as recent weeks – sluggish consumer demand domestically, lack of export demand, and an oversupplied Scottish market which is having a particular effect on prices in the North.
• We have seen some very aggressive shipments of Scandinavian feed barley offered lately for spot shipment following a logistical squeeze on storage space, which are undercutting UK offers into Ireland by almost €15/mt, making fresh export sales a distant prospect.
• Farmer selling remains slow, although overall the demand factors are prevailing leading to pressure.
  
  

Outlook
We do not expect to see significant support to barley prices given the slow pace of demand and lack of exports, it is likely that prices will continue to drift without a major reversal in global ag markets.

Rapeseed

Oilseed markets spent the week trying to weigh up trade politics, currency moves, and weather all of which have added volatility. Soybeans led weakness as record U.S. yield potential and ongoing demand concerns from China weighed on the complex. Crude oil tested key moving averages before retreating on OPEC+ rumours of supply increases. Canola struggled under farmer selling and speculative liquidation, while MATIF rapeseed failed to hold recent technical gains, now trading on a softer note.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans faced consistent downside so far on a short week with Labour Day on Monday. The market struggled with a firm U.S. dollar, which dampened export competitiveness, despite inspections coming in at the top end of estimates. South American meal continues to undercut US values, pressuring crush margins, while Chinese demand remains muted amid escalating trade tensions. Technically, soybeans lost recent gains and remain under pressure, heading towards support at the 200 day moving average.
• Crude managed to briefly close above its own 200 day moving average, before falling back as OPEC+ signalled potential production increases of 1.65m barrels per day. Strength in Asian buying, particularly from China and India (who continue to buy from Russia despite US 50% tariffs), provided interim support, but macro headlines continue to dictate direction. The Russia-Ukraine conflict underpins the market, while U.S. crude stock movements add another layer of noise.
• Canola endured another volatile week, with prices breaching fresh four month lows. Technical pressure accelerated after breaking below key moving averages, sparking another round of farmer selling and trimming speculative length to near multi-year lows. Despite weak board values, crush margins remain healthy, cushioning domestic processors but leaving futures under heavy selling pressure.
• MATIF followed the wider oilseed complex, briefly recovering on stronger rapeoil demand and forming a bullish engulfing reversal early in the week, meaning that buying interest well outdid the seller’s effort of the day before which would usually push future positivity. However, due to the low volume on Labour Day, this is a less reliable pattern in this instance, therefore prices fell back through key levels, just closing under €465 support once more. Until momentum shifts, rallies are seen as selling opportunities, with €460 the next technical support.
  
  

Outlook
The oilseed complex remains weighed by strong U.S. soybean yield prospects as well as Canadian canola prospects, volatile currency, and persistent trade tensions. Crude oil may remain volatile as OPEC+ meets, though geopolitical risks continue to lend underlying support. Canola is struggling to find a floor under farmer selling, while MATIF rapeseed is struggling to form any positive upside momentum. Near-term, downside risks dominate unless a weather shock or demand surprise emerges.

Oats

Persistent wet conditions across Scandinavia and the Baltic States continue to fuel concerns over crop quality.

Key Factors

• Ongoing heavy rainfall in the Baltics is likely to result in more oats being redirected into feed channels.
• Sweden and Finland also recorded further rain last week, and with forecasts pointing to additional showers, harvest progress is expected to remain slow. Worries around elevated mycotoxin levels persist, though no firm evidence has been reported yet.
• Milling oat demand within Europe remains subdued. Trading activity has been minimal, with some gaps still to be covered later in Q4, but buyers are expected to hold back until there is greater clarity on the Scandinavian harvest.
• Feed oat availability continues to expand due to downgrades in the Baltic region. However, demand is difficult to secure as Spain remains oversupplied with oats in the 45–48kg/hl range.
• In the UK, buyer interest is muted, helped by the large carry-over of good-quality oats from last season.
• Crop quality here is proving mixed, with a wide spread in results. High screenings (>6%) and lower specific weights (47–49kg/hl) are becoming increasingly common.
• Yield projections remain unchanged, with the potential for a 25% drop against the five-year average. If this plays out, availability could mirror 2023/24 levels, making the 2025/26 crop the second-lowest in the past nine years.
• Farmer selling is still limited, largely a result of low prices and extra storage space following a disappointing wheat harvest that has eased logistical constraints.
  
  

Outlook
Quality questions across northern Europe continue to hang over the market. Should problems be confirmed, prices may already have touched their floor. However, sluggish demand could limit any upward movement. The next few weeks will be decisive.

Pulses

The UK pulse harvest is now essentially complete, with just the odd standing crop remaining in the north of the UK, however they are broadly few and far between. The season has been marked by exceptionally variable yields, and quality continues to slide, with high levels of broken and splits, whilst the colour of beans seems to be deteriorating. Demand remains lacklustre, with other raw materials more attractive in rations.

Key Factors

• Bean quality is starting to drag, with increased levels of staining, and them starting to take on a steadily darker colour, meaning they are less attractive for processing. We continue to see high levels of splits and damage in many samples, reducing their suitability for Human Consumption markets, while recent showers are increasing staining in later-cut crops.
• Another week of quiet domestic demand and comparatively flat pricing. Imported NGFI feedstuffs remain significantly cheaper in diets, with beans still needing to discount by ~£30/t to compete and attract more wholesale interest away from the primary homes of the poultry sector.
• Export interest has never really got going on UK beans, and what little there was is starting to wain, with Baltic beans coming under sustained pressure over the last two weeks, and values sliding lower. With few outlets available, UK beans will surely need to react to ensure their place in a diet somewhere.
• Harvest now complete, buyers are actively assessing this year’s samples. It’s clear there is significant variability in grade quality, largely influenced by harvest timing. While buyers are gradually returning to the market to cover nearby positions, trading activity remains limited, with few significant volume deals reported.
• Feed prices are expected to come under pressure due to the increase in on-farm stocks and added competition from more competitively priced Canadian supplies.
• Meanwhile, next year’s buybacks have been released and are being snapped up quickly, driven by the strong gross margin potential for peas.
  
  

Outlook
The hunt continues for good quality beans that are suitable for processing, as with beans uncompetitive in UK domestic feed rations, and Baltic beans under sustained downward pressure, homes are proving challenging.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

September is now upon us, and thoughts are turning towards Autumn cereal drilling and selecting the right varieties for the season. Choosing the best variety requires careful consideration of your location, soil type, and local climate to ensure the crop thrives. It’s also important to align varietal choice with your end market aspirations, whether that’s milling, malting, or feed. Making the right decision now helps maximize your return on investment and sets the stage for a successful harvest. OSR drilling has continued, aided by the welcome rain in the forecast, with many finding success in later drilling.

Key Factors

OSR

• For those targeting high yields, Maverick and Karat stand out with exceptional yield potential and high oil content; Karat is currently a candidate variety, performing well in trials and offered in limited supply this year.
• When it comes to robust disease resistance, Hinsta and LG Academic are our top choices, providing strong protection against TuYV and pod shatter. Both available on an establishment scheme.
• Vigorous varieties such as Duplo and Aviron support strong crop establishment during both autumn and spring.
• We offer a range of varieties available for fast delivery or for collection at one of our locations across the UK from Aberdeen to Lincolnshire to Thriplow.
  
  

Cereals

• RGT Hexton, a Group 4S variety, boasts the highest second wheat performance on the Recommended List and performs well across all soil types, particularly lighter soils. It delivers very high yields in the UK, standing out especially in the North, and is known for its very clean appearance. Additionally, RGT Hexton has strong resistance to septoria tritici, rated at 6.7, and is resistant to OWBM. There is limited stocks of this variety available on a first come, first served basis.
• LG Capitol, sister to LG Caravelle, is an excellent choice for two-row feed barley. It is joint highest yielding on the AHDB Recommended List and has performed strongly in recent harvest results.
• We are also happy to offer over yeared stocks of multiple varieties available at discounted rates, ready for fast delivery. Get in touch with your ADM farm trader to find out more.
  
  

Outlook
As September progresses, Autumn cereal drilling is beginning, and selecting the right varieties for your location and market is essential for success. The recent rain supports ongoing OSR establishment, even for later drilling. With strong options available for disease resistance and crop vigour, growers can confidently protect and boost yields. Contact your ADM farm trader to secure top varieties of cereals, pulses and OSR and take advantage of fast delivery and discounted over yeared cereal stocks.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas 
European prices steady on strong storage; US futures rally but capped by record output. 

Key Factors

• EU futures held around €32/MWh, consolidating after touching a 15-month low of €30.3 in mid-August, supported by strong supply fundamentals. 
• EU storage surpassed 78%, keeping pace toward the 80% November target, with LNG imports more than 50% higher y/y securing supply after the loss of Russian flows. 
• Despite strong availability, some market participants are positioning for Q4 supply risks, with options markets showing bets on a surge. 
• In the US, futures topped $3.05/MMBtu, a one-month high, on stronger weather-driven demand and broader energy gains. 
• Near-record production and storage (5% above seasonal norms) limited upside, though output dipped slightly in early September. 
  
  

Outlook
Europe remains well supplied heading into winter, with the risk skewed to upside only if supply falters later in Q4. US prices gained on weather and sentiment but remain capped by high production and storage buffers. 

Ammonia 
Prices supported into early September as supply constraints persist. 

Key Factors

• Ammonia values remain underpinned by limited availability in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. 
• Tightness west of Suez continues, with constrained supply from North Africa and the US Gulf maintaining pressure on buyers. 
• East of Suez, balances are firmer, though availability remains controlled and traders cautious. 
• Market sentiment is stable-to-firm, with little appetite to discount given the supply backdrop. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices should stay supported through the first half of September, with risk tilted to the upside if production or export disruptions intensify. 

Nitrates and Sulphates 
Markets remain under pressure as buyers track urea moves and demand stays subdued. 

Key Factors

• Global buyers are cautious, with many waiting for direction from today’s NFL urea tender. 
• Recent softness in urea has added pressure to nitrates and sulphates, limiting upside. 
• Demand across Europe remains thin in the seasonal lull, while Brazil continues to face logistical challenges and limited appetite. 
• Chinese ammonium sulphate availability remains ample, adding further downward pressure on international benchmarks. 
  
  

Outlook
With demand muted and urea trending softer, nitrates and sulphates are likely to remain under pressure in the near term. 

Urea 
Record Indian tender offers highlight bearish shift; global markets soften as prices fall from August highs. 

Key Factors

• NFL’s 2 September tender for 2 Mt (split evenly between east and west coasts) attracted a record 5.66 Mt of offers, underscoring heavy global availability. 
• Lowest offers were reported at $462/t CFR EC1 and $464.70/t CFR WC1, sharply lower than the $530/t CFR WC1 secured by IPL in early August. 
• The tender follows IPL’s acceptance of just under 2 Mt for shipment by 22 September, which had earlier provided support to the market. 
• With Egypt still operating at reduced capacity (70–80%) but facing soft buying interest, producers remain reluctant sellers at higher prices. 
  
  

Outlook
India’s record tender participation and steeply lower offers signal a more bearish near-term trend. Unless Brazil absorbs significant tonnage, urea prices are likely to face further pressure through September. 

Phosphates 
Rally shows signs of topping as Brazil and India soften; China quota release tempers bullish tone. 

Key Factors

• MAP prices in Brazil continued to weaken, with demand failing to respond despite earlier firmness. 
• In India, DAP slipped slightly, suggesting resistance to paying above the current ceiling levels. 
• Overall stability of recent weeks has given way to a softer market tone, with China’s announcement of an additional 700,000 t DAP/MAP export quota pressuring sentiment further. 
• Despite easing, supply remains very tight globally, keeping prices elevated relative to historical levels. 
• Market focus now on confirmation of China’s participation in Bangladesh’s 500,000 t DAP tender, which could absorb much of the fresh allocation. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices appear to have peaked, with modest declines likely in the weeks ahead. However, tight global availability should cap downside moves and prevent any sharp correction. 

Potash 
Brazil leads early price softness as global demand stays weak. 

Key Factors

• MOP values in Brazil continue to edge lower, reflecting the end of the soybean season and reduced import appetite. 
• The weakness in Brazil is now seen as an early signal for a broader market decline, with other regions expected to follow. 
• Global demand remains seasonally muted, with buyers in Southeast Asia and China preparing for upcoming tender seasons. 
• Producers are focused on Asia to anchor volumes, but subdued crop prospects temper buying enthusiasm. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash prices are expected to stay flat to soft into September, with Brazil setting the tone for a broader correction unless demand revives in Asia.

 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1523	1.3441	1.1659

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sept25	137-148	151-171	200-210	385-395