Market reports

Wheat

Global grain markets have endured a choppy, range-bound week, with wheat repeatedly hitting contract lows in the US and Europe. Corn and soybeans have shown signs of consolidation after recent strength, whilst ample Black Sea supply, record US corn prospects and muted Chinese demand keep rallies capped despite firm US exports.

Key Points

• Wheat has been under pressure this week, with Chicago, MATIF, and London wheat futures all repeatedly setting contract lows, dragged down by aggressive Russian exports, rising global production estimates, and limited weather risks. FOB Black Sea values near $225/t underline export competition
• US corn has been buoyed by exports at multi-year highs but weighed by bumper harvest forecasts of 16.5–16.8bn bu. Resistance above $4.20/bu has capped gains ahead of Friday’s WASDE, with disease pressure and river transport issues adding uncertainty
• A lack of Chinese buying continues to cap US soybeans, despite record Brazilian shipments to China. US drought conditions have inched higher but remain historically low, limiting weather-led support
• Turning closer to home in Europe and the UK, London and MATIF wheat futures have tested key supports near £166/t and €188/t, respectively, with spreads widening as feed demand stays firm, but milling premiums soften in light of the record pass rates in the UK. Reluctant farmer selling in the UK is keeping basis elevated, as futures slide with the net result giving very little flat price movement over the last two months.
• Money managers have further extended shorts across wheat and soybeans whilst trimming corn shorts. The strong early US export pace has prevented deeper losses, but speculative pressure remains aligned with bearish fundamentals.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain trapped between strong near-term US exports and heavy global supply, with Black Sea exports setting the tone. Friday’s USDA WASDE will be pivotal for short-term direction, but without a demand shock—particularly from China—any rallies are likely to be shallow and short-lived.

Malting Barley

Malting barley prices are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient domestic supply, limiting exports and market activity despite tight feed barley in some regions and a lower acreage forecast for next year.

Key Factors

• Malting barley prices continue to come under pressure on a lack of demand, despite farmer selling remaining slow. The view of the market is that there is sufficient barley in the country to suit the maltster’s needs, which is being reflected in prices and premiums.
• FOB markets continue to be valued well below notional domestic prices which will limit export activity and keep the barley in the country. Interestingly, with South West feed barley proving particularly tight, FOB malting barley on the South coasts is now valued below feed.
• The lower acreage forecast for next year does not seem to be inspiring much activity from the market, and interest in crop-26 remains quiet.
  
  

Outlook
Malting barley markets continue to feel weak, and we would expect to see this trend continue. The question will be, when does the sell-off run out of steam?

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain under pressure due to a Scottish surplus, weak export demand, and limited farmer selling as focus shifts to next season’s planting campaign.

Key Factors

• There is little fresh to report from feed barley markets over the last week. Prices continue to feel pressure with a weighty surplus in Scotland which continues to pressure the North of the UK
• There is a noticeable lack of export demand, and UK replacement remains far to expensive to compete into the Irish market today.
• Farmer selling continues to lag following the seasonal expectation as growers begin preparing for and planting next year’s crop.
• With conditions looking good for winter OSR and wheat plantings so far, we expect to see lower spring barley planting intentions for harvest 2025, although it is still early days.
  
  

Outlook
Unless we see a wider recovery in grain markets or a significant influx of consumer demand, we would expect to see feed barley prices continue to drift, although we don’t see significant downside without more farmer selling which isn’t anticipated in the short term.

Rapeseed

Oilseeds traded a mixed week, with sideways movement the dominant theme as markets consolidated ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE report. Soybeans have been weighing up a slip in crop ratings and mixed weather forecasts ahead of Friday’s report, while currency swings added another layer of volatility. Crude oil found renewed support on geopolitical headlines and OPEC+ production constraints. Canola remains weighed by burdensome stocks, though technical support held midweek. MATIF rapeseed mirrored this rangebound trade, stuck between firm resistance overhead and solid support beneath.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans were choppy, unable to break out of a tight trading range. Early frost scares in the U.S. fizzled out, while StoneX trimmed yield estimates slightly to 53.2bpa. Crop ratings slipped to 64% good/excellent, 1% lower than last week, matching last year. Export flows were positive, despite no Chinese demand, while Brazil begins planting into its driest soils in a decade. Traders now look to the WASDE, where expectations lean towards modest yield cuts offset by higher harvested area.
• Energy markets lent underlying support to veg oils, with crude climbing over $2 across the week. OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected production increase and limited spare capacity provided a floor, while Chinese imports added demand optimism. Midweek geopolitical tension in the Middle East provided a further leg higher, with crude even triggering a measuring gap pattern that flagged technical upside targets. Nonetheless, the U.S. EIA sees prices easing in coming months as OPEC+ stocks rebuild on higher production despite lower than expected cuts.
• Canola was volatile, swinging $10 higher before correcting lower and then bouncing again from key support at $615. Heavy old crop stocks remain an overhang, with StatsCan revealing additional unaccounted volumes. Speculative length is now modest, down to 6% of open interest. Political headlines added colour, with Canada seeking a ‘cars for canola’ deal with China amid broader tariff disputes, though weather has been largely benign with patchy showers and mild harvest delays.
• MATIF rapeseed futures were equally rangebound, stuck in a €460–470 corridor. A firm euro capped gains early in the week, while late strength nudged contracts back towards resistance. Technical point to €470 as the next ceiling, with the 20-day moving average in the same zone, suggesting rallies remain selling opportunities unless supply flow from Canada shifts. Seasonals typically turn friendlier into autumn, but for now fundamentals offer little fresh fuel for upside momentum.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain finely balanced heading into the USDA report, which should provide short-term direction for soybeans and by extension rapeseed. Crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium looks set to keep volatility high, though medium-term forecasts lean softer. Canola will continue to wrestle with heavy supply burdens, while MATIF rapeseed is likely to remain rangebound until new catalysts emerge, though it is hard to argue the solid downtrend that started in June. For growers, expect more sideways trade near term, with rallies meeting selling pressure unless demand picks up meaningfully.

Oats

Wet weather continues to threaten milling quality for European buyers with some supplies still yet to be harvested.

Key Factors

• Widespread rainfall across Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states in the next 5 days could see further downgrades in milling oat quality for crops which are still to be harvested. Volumes of 1-2 inches are forecast over the next 5 days, however some good progress would have been made in the last week thanks to favourable conditions.
• Uncertainty over the impacts of the wet harvest in Scandinavia and the Baltics is helping to support EU milling oat prices, however with every day more knowledge is being gained and this will help buyers and sellers to make their decisions.
• Feed oats continue to be hard to sell with many exporting nations looking to market their surpluses. Unfortunately, the market is aware of this and buying hand to mouth, consequentially prices are favouring a weaker trend.
• Here in the UK, farmer selling remains very poor with the below cost of production and greater than expected storage availability being cited as the main reason of this.
• Demand for milling oats is a bit cagey with millers still looking to cover Q4 positions, therefore if farmers refrain from selling and merchants start to see demand from the EU because of the weaker £/€ then prices could rise. But millers have good inventories of old crop, and this is putting them in a comfortable position.
  
  

Outlook
Quality uncertainty of the EU crop continues to be supporting EU milling prices for now but only time will tell which way this market is heading.

Pulses

Pulses continue to remain broadly uncompetitive in the mainstream, away from the more specialised applications that they fulfil in the face of competition from comparatively cheap alternatives within the feedstuff space. Human Consumption availability remains variable as post-harvest analysis continues, with the spectre of a large Australian crop looming large over prices post Christmas.

Key Points

• Bean quality remains variable, with higher levels of broken and split beans still notable in samples, no doubt a reflection of the dry conditions faced at harvest. We are seeing slightly increased levels of darker beans and beans with higher levels of staining than usual for this time of year, which is limiting their suitability for processing. However, with an ever increasing Australian new crop forecast, UK and European exports will no doubt be tempered as we enter the New Year.
• Last week, ABARES (The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) printed their latest new crop projections, and called the Australian new crop Faba Bean estimate at 854kmt, up 14% YoY, despite a fractionally reduced area. If the Aussie crop comes to fruition, it will likely outcompete both UK and EU origins once we reach the New Year and see the first vessels arriving in the Middle East and North Africa.
• Domestic demand is struggling for interest at the moment, with the UK’s comparatively flat pricing structure which seems stubbornly stuck around these levels doing little to help. A mix of both domestically produced and imported NGFI feedstuffs remain significantly cheaper in diets and maintain control of formulations, with beans still needing to discount by ~£30/t to compete and attract more wholesale interest away from the primary homes of the poultry sector.
• Export interest is thin and limited for UK beans, and with Baltic beans remaining under pressure, there is little optimism towards any appreciation in UK values. With few outlets available, UK beans will surely need to react to ensure their place in a diet somewhere.
• The pea market has traded sideways week on week, with buyers adopting a very hand-to-mouth approach when contracting tonnages for nearby positions. Buyers are actively assessing / grading this year’s samples before committing to any volume.  
• Feed prices are still pressured from high stocks both here in the UK and in Canada.
• Meanwhile, next year’s buybacks have been released and are being snapped up quickly, driven by the strong gross margin potential for peas.
  
  

Outlook
With a large Australian crop being forecast, time is starting to look limited in the UK and EU markets for pushing volume in to the Human Consumption markets of North Africa and the Middle East before Australian beans start to weigh heavy on pricing. With pressures also being faced in domestic feed rations, overall beans will need to find their place.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

As we delve deeper into the 2025 Autumn season, most are focusing on completing their OSR drilling and beginning to look towards cereal drilling. For those still seeking high-quality seed, we continue to offer a selection of market-leading varieties across different crops to meet various needs.

Key Factors
A Selection of Key Oilseed Rape Varieties:

• Karat: A promising new candidate variety known for its high oil content and impressive yield potential.
• Duplo and Aviron: Both vigorous in the Autumn with proven performance, providing reliable options for growers.
• Maverick: Looking to maximise yield, Maverick tops the AHDB Recommended List.
  
  

A Selection of Key Winter Wheat Varieties:

• LG Beowulf: Known for its strong disease resistance and high yield potential, making it a dependable and flexible choice for winter wheat.
• KWS Dawsum: Offers excellent standing ability, high specific weight and strong agronomics.
• Bamford: A variety with good disease resistance and grain quality, ideal for various soil types and the perfect choice of Group 3.
• Champion: Recognised for its high yield and brilliant Septoria resistance, making it a robust choice on farm.
  
  

Winter Oats

• Mascani: A firm favourite on farm, valued for its robust yield, good disease resistance, and versatility.
  
  

Over yeared Stocks

• We still have some over yeared seed stocks available at a discounted price, including Buccaneer winter barley. Buccaneer is known for its strong straw, good yield, and suitability for a range of growing conditions, making it a reliable option.
  
  

Small Seeds

• Grass leys are available for multiple uses and durations, ranging from short to long term. These can be tailored for cutting or grazing purposes to suit your farm requirements.
  
  

Outlook
Securing high-quality seed is essential to maximize potential yields and crop health for the 2025 season. Our diverse range of top-performing varieties and flexible seed options ensure growers can find the right fit for their specific needs. Whether focusing on oilseed rape, cereals, oats, pulses or small seeds, early planning and seed selection remain key to a successful season ahead.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

Geopolitical tensions lift EU futures; US prices ease on weak LNG flows and ample storage. 

Key Factors

• European futures climbed above €33/MWh, supported by supply risk after Israel’s strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar raised concerns over LNG flows. 
• Russia’s latest drone attacks on Ukraine breached Polish airspace, drawing NATO defensive action and intensifying geopolitical risk. 
• EU storage stood at 79.6%, nearly meeting the 80% November target, while Norwegian maintenance is winding down, improving supply flexibility. 
• US futures slipped to $3/MMBtu, pressured by weaker LNG feedgas flows at 15.6 bcfd (down from 15.8 in August) and forecasts for softer demand. 
• Output in the Lower 48 eased to 107.4 bcfd in September, with daily levels at a two-month low of 106.3 bcfd, though storage remains 6% above average. 
  
  

Outlook
EU prices remain sensitive to geopolitical risks despite healthy storage and strong supply. In the US, near-term weakness may persist on softer LNG flows and mild demand, though production declines could limit further downside. 

Ammonia

Prices supported into early September as supply constraints persist. 

Key Factors

• Ammonia values remain underpinned by limited availability in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. 
• Tightness west of Suez continues, with constrained supply from North Africa and the US Gulf maintaining pressure on buyers. 
• East of Suez, balances are firmer, though availability remains controlled and traders cautious.
•  Market sentiment is stable-to-firm, with little appetite to discount given the supply backdrop. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices should stay supported through September, with risk tilted to the upside if production or export disruptions intensify. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Downtrend extends as oversupply and weak demand weigh on sentiment. 

Key Factors

• Prices continued to soften with buyers sidelined, awaiting clearer signals from global urea benchmarks. 
• Ammonium sulphate (AS) remains under particular pressure from heavy Chinese supply. 
• Brazilian demand is muted, with logistical bottlenecks further slowing buying interest. 
• In Europe, summer seasonality and limited grower appetite keep liquidity thin. 
  
  

Outlook 
Both nitrates and sulphates are expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with any recovery dependent on firmer urea benchmarks and renewed demand from Brazil. 

Urea

India’s latest tender closes 2.03 Mt; global trade remains uncertain with reported firmness in Egypt but softer tones in Brazil. 

Key Factors

• NFL issued LoIs for 2.03 Mt on 9 September, below some market expectations in the days prior  of 2.5–2.9 Mt. 
• Aditya Birla set the L1 at $462.45/t CFR east coast and $464.70/t CFR west coast, securing 600,000 t. 
• China is expected to provide ~700,000 t, the Middle East ~500,000 t, and Russia at least 300,000 t. 
• Egyptian material observed a small price rise, with recent sales ranging $435–445/t FOB for September–October loadings. 
• In Brazil, granular trades were done at $429–430/t CFR, with Nigerian and Russian tonnes offered in the $430–440/t range, though some buyers countered as low as $400–415/t CFR. 
  
  

Outlook
Indian demand has provided near-term support, but softer sentiment in Brazil highlights ongoing price resistance. 

Phosphates

Market quiet ahead of tenders, with downside bias but limited by tight availability. 

Key Factors

• DAP/MAP trading activity has slowed, with buyers awaiting tender results from Ethiopia and Bangladesh, both closing 16 September. 
• Prices appear to have peaked, with some benchmarks slipping from recent highs. 
• Affordability concerns remain a drag on demand, but tight supply continues to underpin the market. 
  
  

Outlook
Further softening is possible in the near term, though downside is expected to be capped by tight availability and fresh demand from upcoming tenders. 

Potash

Flat-to-softer trend continues as Brazil leads global price decline. 

Key Factors

• MOP prices remain under pressure globally, with affordability concerns mounting as crop prices weaken. 
• Brazil continues to set the pace, with reported deals around $350/t CFR, below last week’s index of $355–360/t CFR. 
• Demand across other key regions remains muted, adding to the bearish tone. 
  
  

Outlook
Prices are likely to drift lower in the near term, with Brazil’s market direction setting the benchmark for global sentiment. 

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1560	1.3525	1.1698

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Sept25	136-147	151-171	198-208	385-395