Market reports

Wheat

Global grain markets faced pressure from new trade deals, rapid planting progress, and favourable weather, pushing wheat to fresh contract lows, while soybeans and wider oilseeds benefited from more bullish USDA projections. UK wheat suffered due to the prospect of increased US ethanol imports, and the potential knock-on effects of lower new crop demand. MATIF found technical support, with some concerns over regional dryness confined to the Northern reaches of the continent, and fresh demand from North Africa.

US/UK Trade Deal
Trump’s proposed new UK trade deal drops ethanol tariffs from 19% to 0%, increasing flows of ethanol imports to the UK and posing a threat to domestic wheat demand for ethanol. Beef imports also rise, stirring debates over production standards, but this side of the deal is thought to be more bilateral at this stage with increased export opportunities too. UK wheat futures reacted negatively to the proposed mandate, posting contract lows amid concerns about future domestic competitiveness.

US/China Tariff Pause & WASDE
A 90-day US/China tariff pause buoyed markets, especially soybeans, but a subsequent trade deal between Brazil and China keeps South American bean stocks as the world’s cheapest source. The May WASDE was bullish for beans, neutral for corn, and slightly bearish for wheat. Record US planting pace and higher projected yields led to a mixed but cautious market reaction.

Weather and Crop Progress
Favourable US weather and rapid planting weighed on corn and bean prices. Kansas wheat conditions varied, with good yields in the north but disease and frost issues in the south. Europe remains dry in parts—particularly the Northernmost regions of Poland and Germany as well as the UK while southern and eastern regions benefit from recent rains, as we see increasing production ideas for wheat and barley in Spain particularly.

European Market Dynamics
September MATIF wheat found repeated support at €202/t, with resilience boosted by Algeria’s wheat tender. UK wheat remained pressured by weak domestic demand despite dry weather and sluggish farmer selling. Rapeseed outperformed, gaining €18/t since the WASDE, while French acreage figures point to increased wheat and rapeseed area.

Geopolitical Trade Shifts
Brazil’s deal with China adds pressure to US soybean competitiveness. With Brazil also set to double corn use for ethanol, these moves further undercut US export opportunities. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in India/Pakistan and Russia/Ukraine keep a layer of uncertainty under markets despite best effort by US officials to broker peace deals.

Market Outlook
Despite the potential for short-term technical support, the outlook for UK wheat remains fragile amid trade-driven demand shifts, meaning the balance sheet could almost afford to drop production and still show a surplus following historically dry weather. Global markets hinge on weather, trade negotiations, and the pace of planting, while soybean strength may persist if US-China relations hold and yields fall short of record USDA expectations.

Malting Barley

New crop malting barley prices continue to hold firm on dry weather and slow farmer selling. Demand concerns persist.

Key Factors

• Dry weather conditions continue to add risk premium to the new crop market, and for another week, farmer selling is extremely unlikely until we see some precipitation which should continue to support values.
• On the other side, first-hand demand is still not entering the market, which is keeping markets wide and values nominal.
  
  

Outlook
We expect prevailing dry conditions will continue to support prices as the weeks progress. However, the market could very quickly turn back to focusing on demand concerns if the weather turns more favourable.

Feed Barley

Another steady week for feed barley markets. Farmer selling is generally slow, although some malting barley tonnage is starting to push it’s way onto the feed market.

Key Factors

• There has been no export trade over the last week as demand is covered nearby, and buyers turn their eyes to early July new crop out of France, which is priced much more attractively.
• New crop farmer selling remains slow however markets are still relatively depressed as demand remains sidelined, and we remain to expensive to compete in export markets, again despite a surplus in the S&D on paper.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop feels about done, and the expectation is for a continuation of the sideways/lower price action of recent weeks. New crop is likely to be similarly quiet with little prospect of farmer selling whilst conditions remain dry, however the UK market needs to do some work to find demand, particularly with harvest not too many weeks away.

Rapeseed

This week markets have focused largely on global weather forecasts, with favourable conditions in North America and extended dryness in Europe, as well as last weekend’s meeting between the US and China. On Monday morning we saw an announcement that both countries have agreed to a 90 day pause to tariffs which will consist of both reducing their existing number by 115%, this gave instant support to stocks and the US dollar. We have also had our monthly USDA WASDE report this week which headlined neutral/bearish for wheat, neutral corn and neutral/bullish soybeans.

Key Factors

• CBOT soybeans have found some solid support this week from prospects of an improving US-China relationship which would mean that China would be a less reluctant buyer of US beans. There has also been support from Soyoil on news of a proposed bill which means to extend the 45Z biofuel tax credit for 4 more years. The main limiting factor for further upside has been the promising forecast, which shows improved precipitation in dryer areas which will help the earlier planted crops get established.
• Energy markets have also done well early on this week as the chance of an improving global economy would help recover global oil demand. We did see a surprise increase in this week’s API crude stocks report which showed a 4.3 million barrel increase vs. expectations for a 1.1 million barrel cut.
• Canola prices have continued their upwards trend this week, making new highs again as the expected boost in global veg oil production keeps us going. The USDA report published their first estimate of 25/26 world veg oil balances which were unchanged, but consumption was increased. This means that stocks to use is now at 12.73% or the lowest we have seen since 2017/18. This has bought price again to look quite overbought and we have run into some selling pressure at $730 therefore this will be the new price to beat.
• MATIF rapeseed has also hit new highs this week, supported by both a weaker EUR/USD and firmer veg oils. This has brought us to a point where MATIF OSR looks expensive vs. wheat to the point where there looks to be some profit taking on the spread between the two. This does, however make UK rapeseed look particularly good on gross margins vs. wheat for the coming planting window. Usually, a good rule of thumb is that anything over rapeseed trading 200% of wheat makes it the choice and currently new crop values are around 229% higher.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, the focus points for the market will now be any trade that we see for soybeans going to China which will help the outlook for demand. We will also want to keep an eye on this proposed biofuel policy which has potential to further tighten the global veg oil stock sheet. The main focus aside from this will be on the weather. The US forecast looks beneficial, though northern European countries are in need of some improved precipitation as crops start to exit the flowering period. UK prices have been capped by a stronger Sterling, though still are approaching the 400 ex mark for Harvest.

Oats

The European oat market sees little farmer selling, however buyers are becoming increasing concerned about dryness which could impact on new crop production.

Key Factors

• Another week of dry weather over the last week continues to raise the concerns over potential damage to European oat crops. 
• Finland’s oat crops have only just or are in the process of being planted, this has meant they are not currently experiencing any concerns with production. They have also experience more rainfall than many other countries and this should see them in good stead for another good crop.
• Southern Sweden, German and the UK have seen dryness concerns intensify over the last week with virtually no rainfall being received. 
• Spain in contract continues to get good rains and this is helping support prospects of a bumper crop and a potential need to export.
• Here in the UK the dryness issue is becoming an ever increasing topic of conversation and milling oat buyers have taken some good cover over the last 7 days.
• According to MET Office data East Scotland is experiencing the 7th dryest year on record based on figures up to the end of April. But given the lack of rain in May we could see this ranking increase. 
• It is too early to get overly concerned as the crop has time to recover, however if the drought does continue through into July then things could look very different.
  
  

Outlook
The lack of rainfall experienced in large parts of northern Europe is causing buyers to cover positions, however with a lack of farmer selling this is helping to support price. Rainfall is needed to ease these concern.

Pulses

The pulse market remains relatively subdued as the typical end-of-season slowdown looms, gaps for end of season supply seems to be drying up as sellers come to the market to clear the sheds. Members of the trade now look towards new crop coverage and changes in weather patterns which may lend supportive seller confidence.

Key Factors

• UK beans exports to Egypt are all but done with the last few containers set to leave the UK shores in the next few weeks. Attention turned towards European new crop supply, whilst we recently heard sales out of the Baltic states into North Africa, this week interest has slowed. From a competitiveness standpoint UK beans values need to do a little more work to become export competitive into the same destinations but whilst selling interest is subdued, buyers will continue monitor crop progress.
• It’s been another week of dry weather here in the UK and whilst showers are forecast in the west the east remains dry for the week ahead. Whilst not yet of full concern, winter and spring crops in general look well established but there is certainly an element of defensiveness to new crop bean pricing.
• As per last week, the ongoing weather story keeps new crop bean premiums supported for now, however a change in sentiment  would certainly impact values to the downside.  The underlying wheat price is again relatively static week on week bouncing slightly of nearby lows, as a result UK farm gate prices remains relatively unchanged.
• Old crop pea markets are now hard to find with consumers well covered until new crop. New crop peas continue to look very healthy, but as with the beans, they could do with some rain in the forecast. It’s hard to overlook global uncertainty surrounding trade flows, whilst buyers are keen to track new crop values the whirlwind of tariffs and geopolitical instability keeps them from booking early volumes.
  
  

Outlook
New Crop pulse crops look healthy for now, however with another dry week on the cards for most of the UK, this could start changing if we don’t get any precipitation soon. Understandably the trade will have to start factoring in potential yield penalties if this dry spell continues. Growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields. 

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved

Seed

As we reach the middle of May, many have begun to turn their thoughts to their Autumn rotations and cropping requirements. Looking at the best commodities to maximise farm income and boost return on investment.

Key Factors

• There are some exciting new Winter Wheat varieties available for this coming Autumn, plus some firm favourites that will no doubt be popular once again, like Champion, LG Beowulf, Bamford and SY Cheer.
• Winter Barley varieties LG Caravelle and LG Capitol are our go to feed barely choices this year with outstanding yield performance and still the ideal crop for entry into OSR.
• Leguminous crops may also be the go to this Autumn, providing nitrogen fixation and helping to improve soil structure due to the rooting benefits of Winter Beans.
• Mascani is still the first choice for Winter Oats, available alongside a buyback at ADM.
• There are some new and exciting OSR varieties hitting the market this year both candidates and fully approved, including Karat, Maverick, Hinsta and the new clubroot variety Crusoe.
• After the update to the SFI information this week, if you are looking to fulfil your requirements of mixtures or straights, get in touch and we can find something to best suit your needs.
  
  

Outlook
Plant breeding is progressing every year which is reflected in the new varieties we see hitting the market packed full of traits and characteristics. Varietal choice is key when optimising success for the coming season.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Prices stable near recent highs as restocking continues and LNG demand rises in Asia.

Key Factors

• European gas futures held above €35/MWh, supported by strong Asian LNG buying, particularly from China and India.
• EU storage sits at 40% full vs. 62.7% this time last year, adding urgency to summer restocking.
• EU to legislate a full Russian gas and LNG phaseout by 2027, with spot bans coming in 2025.
• US futures dipped below $3.6/MMBtu as LNG export flows declined due to planned maintenance at major Gulf Coast facilities.
• Lower production and forecasted demand still support a medium-term bullish outlook; output fell to 103.7 bcfd from April’s 105.8 bcfd.
  
  

Outlook
European prices remain underpinned by rising global LNG competition and storage gaps, with geopolitical and legislative shifts further tightening medium-term fundamentals. In the US, near-term softness from LNG outages is offset by seasonal power sector demand and export growth prospects through summer.

Ammonia
Oversupply persists, but East of Suez shows early signs of bottoming.

Key Factors

• Global ammonia supply remains ample, with demand limited across major import regions.
• East of Suez benchmarks may be nearing a floor, as further downside appears increasingly marginal.
• Northwest Europe remains soft amid post-spring lull and steady supply from Algeria.
• IFA (Monaco) forecasts an additional 22 Mt of ammonia capacity by 2028, with blue and green ammonia representing 13% and 9% respectively.
• IFA estimates global ammonia supply in 2024 reached 107.8 Mt,  near 2020’s record highs.
  
  

Outlook
While short-term softness continues, further downside may be limited east of Suez.

Nitrates
Yara kicks off new-season pricing with firmer levels in France.

Key Factors

• Yara has launched new-season 2025/26 prices for ammonium nitrate (AN) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) on 13 May mirroring last year’s schedule.
• YaraBela EXTRAN 33.5% AN is offered at €360/t bulk CPT France, up €35/t from last season’s opening of €325/t.
• Broader European demand remains seasonally subdued, but the early release sets a firmer tone ahead of new-season negotiations.
  
  

Outlook
Early price signals suggest producers are seeking to firm up values despite weak recent nitrate sentiment. With urea direction still unclear and AN import flows tight, the UK market will closely track EU new-season price progression in the weeks ahead.

Urea
NOLA cools: Chinese export quota estimates revised lower; Egypt hit by fresh gas constraints.

Key Factors

• US NOLA barge values slipped to $523/st FOB on 13 May, down $32/st from last week’s high of $555/st, as activity slowed amid the IFA conference in Monaco.
• Market participants are focused on China’s urea export quota, which Fertex (Sinofert-owned) reports has been set at 2 Mt for May 2025–April 2026 — well below the 3–4 Mt expected.
• Clarity is expected following today’s CNFA meeting in Beijing.
• In Egypt, producers are reportedly operating at 80% capacity due to renewed natural gas shortages.
• Granular offers have fallen to $375/t FOB, with producers resisting bids below $390/t FOB despite demand uncertainty.
  
  

Outlook
Chinese quota limits are providing tentative support to forward pricing, but softening at NOLA and reduced liquidity signal near-term pressure. Egyptian production cutbacks may tighten supply if prolonged, particularly with Indian demand still outstanding. Traders remain cautious as clarity on China and global demand unfolds post-IFA.

Potash
Global supply hits record, but Q3 peak expected as tightness drives prices.

Key Factors

• IFA estimates MOP (muriate of potash) supply reached a record 40.8 Mt in 2024, the highest on record.
• Despite strong production, prices are forecast to climb through Q3 on the back of robust demand and constrained spot availability.
• Peak pricing is expected in Q3 2025 before a gradual easing into late Q4 and Q1 2026.
  
  

Outlook
Although supply has reached historic levels, market tightness and resilient demand — particularly from Asia and South America — continue to support bullish sentiment for Q3. Producers and traders anticipate softer values into year-end, but sustained tightness could delay that correction.

Phosphates
Prices continue climbing on tight supply; China re-entry may shape market in Q3.

Key Factors

• Prices are rising sharply as buyers face limited supply and few alternatives, with DAP FOB NOLA now assessed at $650–657/st — the highest since April 2023.
• Demand remains strong globally, but affordability remains a challenge, particularly in emerging markets.
• China is expected to re-enter the phosphate export market, with traders already offering Chinese DAP in Ethiopia’s 13 May tender though export volumes and conditions remain unclear.
• In the US, countervailing duties continue to restrict DAP/MAP imports from Morocco (OCP: 16.81%) and Russia (PhosAgro: 18.21%), keeping domestic supply tight.
  
  

Outlook:
Prices are likely to trend higher through Q2, with limited downside expected until at least Q3. Much will depend on the timing and scale of China’s return to the global market. Until then, constrained supply, policy-driven trade restrictions, and persistent global demand will continue to support elevated prices.

Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1865	1.3288	1.1199

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
May25	145-155	160-175	210-220	430-435