Market reports

Wheat

Agricultural markets fluctuated through the week as trade optimism, weather impacts, and geopolitical tensions influenced prices. Soybeans led gains on easing U.S – China trade tensions, while wheat remained pressured by global oversupply. Corn traded range-bound amid heavy U.S supply and ethanol demand. European wheat markets were subdued as London and MATIF contracts neared key roll dates.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans: Prices rose steadily amid optimism over trade talks, with the U.S encouraging China and Japan to increase soybean imports. Dry conditions in Brazil aided planting but may limit development later in October.
• Corn: Futures stayed range-bound under harvest pressure and profit-taking. U.S ethanol demand and supply levels supported modest firmness, while tensions with Colombia pressured exports.
• Wheat: Global wheat markets stayed bearish due to abundant supply from Russia and the Black Sea. IKAR raised Russian production forecasts to 88 MMT, and Algeria sourced competitively priced imports around $259/mt.
• Europe/UK: London Nov’25 and MATIF Dec’25 contracts neared first notice day with tightening spreads. French wheat exports stayed strong, but sluggish farmer selling and high old-crop premiums maintained market caution.
• Macro Factors: The U.S. dollar strengthened moderately, crude oil rebounded, and equities were mixed. Metals fell after record highs, while agricultural markets responded mainly to trade and weather developments.
  
  

Outlook
Markets remain cautious as trade negotiations and global weather trends dominate sentiment. Soybeans may retain strength if Asian buying persists, while corn and wheat could stay under pressure from heavy supply. European and UK traders focus on near-term contract expiries and potential volatility from shifting cash and futures spreads.

Barley

For another week we see a very quiet malting market as demand continues to be elusive for crop 2025. For crop 2026, nominally we see a stronger premium to old crop but on very thin trade.

Key Factors:

• Again we see a week where maltster engagement is nowhere to be seen and farmer selling is also absent from the market.
• As we start to see some maltster intake, quality problems are starting to arise, and we see some middle market short covering on the back of this.
• FOB markets continue to trade at a negative premium versus feed, leaving little chance of any imminent export markets arising.

• Crop 26 also remains quiet; we see sellers in the market but at the moment the maltster seems happy to sit tight despite reports of reduced planting intentions.
  
  

Outlook
In the short term it seems that the market will remain flat and uninspiring. Longer term, without demand from the domestic customer but with question marks over quality and intended planting area, will it be enough to see an uplift in values?

Rapeseed

Ag markets have seen another mixed week as traders balance macro headlines with seasonal fundamentals. Soybeans found strength early on from optimism around US–China relations before consolidating mid-week, while crude oil bounced back sharply on renewed geopolitical tensions. Canola struggled to break out of its narrow range as farmer selling met steady commercial demand, and MATIF rapeseed finally broke higher late in the week, helped by crude oil gains and harvest delays in Australia.

Key Factors:

• Soybeans traded mostly higher this week, finding support from renewed optimism that Trump will be meeting Xi in the coming weeks in an effort to ease tensions. Non Chinese demand does remain strong with this week’s export inspections showing strong figures. Technical resistance remains near recent highs, with Brazilian planting progressing smoothly at around 24% complete. However, with Brazil’s export forecast edging up to 7.34mmt and production now seen at 178.5mmt, upside remains capped by global supply.
• Crude oil prices were volatile, initially slipping to five-month lows before rebounding strongly. The market drew support from fresh conflict between Russia and Ukraine and a bullish API stocks report showing a 3-million-barrel draw versus expectations for a build. Traders are watching for any movement on possible US–Russia talks, though mixed signals from the White House kept sentiment cautious. The technical picture has improved, but sustained rallies will likely depend on confirmation of tightening supply.
• Canola futures were largely rangebound, unable to extend recent gains as every lift in futures brought fresh farmer selling and hedge pressure. Strong domestic crusher demand continues to underpin prices, though board margins have slipped from recent highs. Volume eased towards the end of the week, indicating some consolidation may be underway. Technically, the market now trades sideways, with overhead resistance still intact until a decisive close above key levels.
• MATIF rapeseed saw a strong move on Friday (in comparison to recent price action) giving a pullback to overhead resistance. The rally was fuelled by supportive moves in crude oil and weather disruptions in Australia, where rainfall is delaying harvest progress. While underlying fundamentals remain heavy given robust Canadian output, short-term support at €460 has held firm. A close above €474 could open the door to a retest of €480–485, though follow-through will hinge on broader veg oil sentiment.
  
  

Outlook
With soybean harvests nearing completion and South American planting progressing well, global oilseed supply remains comfortable, keeping rallies in check. Crude oil will continue to set the tone for the wider vegetable oil complex, with geopolitical developments dictating direction. Canola and MATIF rapeseed may see further short-covering support if weather disruptions persist, but without fresh demand or new bullish catalysts, trade is likely to remain rangebound into the week ahead.

Oats

Oat market sees a pickup in demand, but prices remain low.  

   

Key Factors:

• European milling oat markets have gained some support over the last week thanks to reports of some strong demand into 3^rd country markets.
• The Autumn tender period for oat millers is happening right now and this could see some fresh demand enter the market in the coming weeks. Prices are being pushed around as each miller dries to capture business from their retail customers.
• Strong export sales have been reported out of Scandinavia and this could result in some demand for other countries like the baltics and UK origins should Scandinavian supplies require to cover existing EU sales to hedge their sales to 3^rd country origins.
• Demand for feed oats remains very poor and with prices so low it is likely that there is going to be much selling pressure from farmers.
• Here in the UK, some demand is allowing some fresh trade, however with prices so low farmer selling remains very reluctant.
• Milling oat prices are now at the same level as feed and it is making more farmers look at feeding their oats to livestock rather than buying in other commodities.
  
  

Outlook
New crop planting conditions are favourable at the moment and due to the good gross margins in wheat most farmers are trying to maximise their wheat areas this year. This could have a negative impact on oat areas should this low price market continue.

Pulses

Key Factors:

• It has been a quiet week once again for the UK pulse market, with conditions continuing to feel stuck in a sideways transition. Demand remains extremely limited across both nearby and forward positions.
• As per last week’s report, buyers remain firmly focused on the Australian bean harvest, which continues to limit any export interest—particularly for human consumption beans. Unfortunately, the price spread between UK-origin beans and alternative sources into key buying destinations continues to make the UK uncompetitive. This challenge has been exacerbated by recent currency fluctuations.

• On the feed bean side, domestic demand remains subdued. Current price levels are struggling to attract buyers, while nearby shorts appear to be well covered, and prices continue to ease on a daily basis. To stimulate any additional demand into feed rations, prices would likely need to fall by around £30/t below current levels. Should interest re-emerge at those levels, demand is expected to be quickly absorbed.
• Looking ahead to new crop contracts, there has been a reasonable uplift in buyback agreements for 2026, with beans continuing to fit well into rotational planning.
• In the pea market, conditions mirror those of the bean sector. It has been another quiet week, with the market currently awash with feed peas and a very subdued human consumption segment.
• Buyback opportunities for 2026 also appear attractive, with steady uptake over the past few weeks.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, the UK pulse market continues to experience limited trading activity, constrained competitiveness, and weak short-term demand. The upcoming Australian harvest and currency trends remain the key external influences shaping sentiment and price direction in the weeks ahead.

For further insights or updates, reach out to your farm trader.
PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support, with users of the PGRO resources often seeing improved yields.

Seed

Many are well underway or coming to completion of lifting sugar beet and potatoes and are now looking towards late drilled winter wheat. For those not focusing on winter varieties, attention increasingly turns towards the upcoming Spring season, many are carefully planning their rotations and determining the necessary requirements to ensure a successful year. A key part of this process involves selecting the right varieties, those that not only produce solid yields but also align with market demands. 

Key Factors:

• Winter Wheat: SY Cheer, Skyfall and LG Beowulf remain some of our top choices for later drilled Winter wheat varieties. Skyfall continues to have one of the latest safe sowing dates on the AHDB Recommended List and both LG Beowulf and SY Cheer stay strong options for later drilling with their robust agronomic and disease packages.
• Winter Beans: Vespa winter beans remain a reliable on-farm option, delivering consistent performance and impressive yield potential.
• Winter Seed Availability: We have several varieties available for fast delivery, from wheat and barley to bean seed. Get in touch with your ADM Farm Trader to find out more.
• Spring Seed: From cereals to pulses, our Spring seed portfolio features a diverse selection of market-leading varieties. This includes Laureate, spring barley, Lynx bean seed, Butterfly pea seed, and many more. We are also pleased to offer a number of varieties on ADM buybacks.
  
  

Outlook
Many growers are finishing lifting sugar beet and potatoes and turning their attention to late drilled winter wheat, while others are focusing on planning for the upcoming Spring season. Choosing the right varieties for both Autumn and Spring drilling along with accessing available seed for fast delivery, will be key for a successful growing season.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

European prices edge higher on new sanctions, while US futures rebound on colder forecasts and record LNG demand. 

Key Factors: 

• Europe: TTF futures climbed 2% to €32.4/MWh after the EU approved a new sanctions package targeting Russian energy, including a full LNG import ban from 2027, tighter limits on transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil, and sanctions on 117 “shadow fleet” vessels used to bypass restrictions. 
• The move follows coordinated actions by the US and UK amid heightened geopolitical tension after the cancelled Trump–Putin summit. 
• Despite these developments, prices remain rangebound as ample supply and strong storage levels ease winter concerns. 
  
  

Outlook
European prices are expected to remain rangebound in the low €30s/MWh as healthy storage and LNG inflows buffer winter risk. US futures may stay supported near $3.50/MMBtu in the short term, though high storage and mild late-autumn forecasts could cap gains. 

Ammonia

Prices remain firm and are poised to strengthen further amid ongoing supply tightness. 

Key Factors:

•  Ammonia markets continue to face a severe shortage of spot availability on both sides of the Suez, with outages and feedgas constraints still restricting output in several key producing regions. 
• The Ma’aden MPC outage in Saudi Arabia remains a major driver of bullish sentiment, with limited relief expected before December.
•  In North Africa, availability from Algeria and Egypt remains thin, while Trinidad and Tobago continue to struggle with intermittent gas curtailments. 
• While prices are expected to push higher in the near term, some buyers are beginning to resist current levels, with early signs of demand destruction emerging as affordability pressures build, particularly in downstream nitrate and phosphate production. 
  
  

Outlook
Ammonia prices are likely to remain firm through late October, with further upside possible if supply disruptions persist. However, sustained high prices could start to erode downstream demand moving into Q4. 

Nitrates and Sulphates

Sulphates extend gains on strong Brazilian demand, while nitrates remain flat amid weak affordability. 

Key Factors: 

• Ammonium sulphate prices continued to trend higher, supported by robust Brazilian demand and expectations of short-term supply tightness. Several Chinese caprolactam producers are preparing for maintenance shutdowns in the coming weeks, which is likely to curb AS output and tighten availability. 
• In contrast, nitrate prices were largely unchanged, with the market cautious following Yara’s higher December offers. Demand across Europe remains weak, constrained by poor farm-level affordability and sluggish downstream consumption. 
• Despite this, producers are holding the line, preferring to maintain current levels rather than discount further amid rising gas feedstock costs. 
  
  

Outlook
Sulphates may see further short-term support as Chinese maintenance reduces export supply, while nitrates are likely to stay rangebound, with affordability and limited buying interest capping any upside. 

Urea

Market holds steady as participants await India’s RCF tender outcome to determine Q4 direction. 

Key Factors: 

• The RCF 15 October tender remains the focal point, with 3.6 Mt offered and counters now issued at L1 prices. The key question is how many suppliers, particularly those targeting the east coast, where L2 was $15/t above Agrifields’ L1, will lower offers to secure volumes into India. The tender’s outcome will likely set the tone for global pricing through November. 
• In Egypt, Mopco sold 2×5,000 t granular urea for November loading at $430/t FOB, slightly firmer than previous deals in the high $420s/t. 
• US NOLA urea remained steady in thin trade, with November barges trading at $376/st FOB and February at $385–386/st FOB. Paper values hovered near $373/st, as buyers stayed on the sidelines awaiting clarity from India. 
• Liquidity remains limited globally, and sentiment is finely balanced, with most players watching whether India’s purchases will absorb excess tonnage or leave more material on the market. 
  
  

Outlook
Urea prices are expected to stay rangebound in the near term, with direction hinging on the final awards from RCF’s tender. A large Indian procurement could stabilise or lift values modestly, while lower offtake could trigger renewed softness into November. 

Phosphates

Prices extend declines as global demand softens and importers push back amid comfortable stocks and subsidy uncertainty. 

Key Factors: 

• DAP prices dropped sharply last week, with MAP values also falling further, maintaining an unusually wide discount to DAP. Both products are likely to see additional downside in the coming weeks as demand remains muted, and traders search for outlets for unsold tonnes. 
• Although the official Chinese export window has closed, some cargoes continue to move under prior documentation, sustaining limited availability in the short term. However, with demand waning, sellers are facing pressure to offload material at lower prices. 
• In India, the largest DAP importer, buyers are resisting higher prices due to comfortable inventories and subsidy uncertainty, leaving trade slow despite tight overall supply.
•  In Brazil, buyers are largely focused on nitrogen for the corn season, favouring cheaper P₂O₅ alternatives over high-cost MAP. 
• The Ethiopian DAP tender concluded with smaller-than-expected volumes, while the Bangladesh tender remains unresolved amid political and legal complications. 
  
  

Outlook
Phosphate markets are expected to remain under pressure into November as demand stagnates and trade flows adjust post-China’s export window. Minor support may come from seasonal demand in Oceania, but overall sentiment remains bearish for both DAP and MAP. 

Potash

Prices steady as markets await direction from early contract discussions, though downside risks may build into Q4. 

Key Factors: 

• Global potash prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, with formal contract negotiations yet to begin but early discussions underway among major buyers and producers. 
• Spot activity remains muted, with most buyers covered for immediate needs and producers holding firm on offers to avoid further erosion in values. 
• However, as Q4 progresses, the market could see renewed downward pressure, particularly if buying in Southeast Asia and Brazil remains sluggish and inventory levels stay high. 
• In China, domestic port prices have shown little movement, but market participants are bracing for potential concessions in the next contract round to stimulate offtake ahead of the 2026 season. 
  
  

Outlook
Potash prices are likely to stay rangebound in the short term, but mild softness could emerge later in the quarter as global demand remains uneven and producers seek to protect market share before the new contract cycle.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1465	1.3313	1.1609

	Feed Barley £	Wheat £	Beans £	Oilseed Rape £
Oct25	134-145	147-167	195-205	400-410