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Market Report

Thursday 19 May 2022

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Wheat

  • Despite the sharp sell-off in US commodities yesterday, US wheat still managed to post a weekly rise of $17/t thanks to news of an Indian wheat export ban last Saturday that had pushed markets sharply higher.
  • Yesterday’s sell-off was linked to talk of higher Russian wheat output, rumours of a possible Ukrainian export corridor and concerns over global inflation and economic slow-down.
  • EU and UK new crop prices have also firmed week on week, moving up €17/t and £7/t respectively, supported by firmer global markets and continued talk of crop stress due to the recent hot spell across much of western Europe.
  • French farm office AgriMer reported that the share of France’s soft wheat crop rated in good or very good condition slipped to 82% for the week ending 9 May.
  • India’s government has eased some export curbs, stating that consignments handed over to customs for examination and registered on or before 13 May would be allowed to be exported.
  • In addition, Egypt’s government has agreed to buy 500,000t of wheat from India, as the introduced export ban does not apply to deals reached between governments.
  • Morocco is set to import up to 4 mln t of soft wheat over the next 12 months and is looking at supplies from eastern European origins due to US prices being too expensive.
  • Ukrainian farmers had sown about 8.6 mln ha of spring crops as of 9 May, compared with about 11.4 mln ha last year.
  • Western Australia’s grain belt is off to a very good start, with most regions having good subsoil moisture and sown crops receiving recent beneficial rains.
  • CONAB reports that Brazilian farmers are seen planting 16.3 mln ha with winter corn for 2021/22, with production estimated at 87.7 mln t, up 44%, as yields recover from last season’s drought-related crop
  • CONAB sees Brazilian wheat output for 2022/23 at 8.13 mln t due to a 6% year on year expanded area and higher yields, with imports projected at 6.5 mln t and exports at 1 mln t.
  • However, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reports that Argentina is expected to produce a 20.5 mln t wheat crop in 2022/23, down from 22.4 mln t year on year, due to a contraction in the planted area.
  • Egypt plans to expand agricultural land under cultivation, incentivising farmers to increase land productivity by 15-20% this season, with an aim to raise self-sufficiency in wheat production to 65% by 2025.

Malting Barley

  • Similar to feed barley, it was another slow marketing week from the malting side.
  • Although parts of Europe have received rain, prices are once again supported by lack of farmer selling on continued dryness concerns, particularly in France, where price gains have been strongest. High French prices could help to push demand into the UK when buyers come to the table.

Feed Barley

  • There is no activity to report in feed barley markets over the past week.
  • Old crop prices are unchanged and the market remains stuck with no liquidity coming from forward from buyers or sellers.
  • Flat prices on new crop rallied again this week led by the firmer futures. Demand is still non-existent at these levels, with cheaper corn still stealing the show in domestic and export markets.
  • Northern Europe is looking increasingly uncompetitive against third country demand, with MATIF trading at current levels.

Rapeseed

  • Until recently CBOT soybean prices have been largely supported by talks of higher US crush figures and stronger export demand for the end of the season.
  • US soybean plantings were up 18% on the week to 30%, but remain behind the five-year average.
  • China is reported to have purchased several cargoes of US and Brazilian soybeans over the past few weeks. The trade estimates Chinese soybean imports at 94 mln t against USDA’s 92 mln t.
  • In South America, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates the Argentinian soybean harvest at 64.9% complete, compared with 70.6% last year and a 76.1% five-year average. Crop conditions were reported at 67.4% fair/excellent. BAGE left production unchanged at 42.0 mln t, down from 43.1 mln t last year.
  • Harvest in Brazil is drawing to a close and export premiums are beginning to rise as buyers try to tempt the last of the crop out from long holders. Soybean exports out are seen at 11.5 mln t for May versus 15.5 mln t last May.
  • Crude oil prices rallied to recent highs before dropping sharply on Wednesday. Values were pressured by news of a new Covid variant that might put a stop to easing of lockdowns in China, along with the prospect of a global recession.
  • Malaysian palm oil prices dipped from highs with demand and imports seen to be declining. However, the ongoing lack of sun-oil and higher biofuel usage in the US are likely to provide some underlying support.
  • Canadian canola closed $10 higher on Friday following soybean support. The weather remains a concern, being cold and wet in some areas and very dry in others. Parts of Saskatchewan finally received some rain, which will help sowing. More rain is forecast over the next week. China finally removed restrictions on Canadian canola imports enforced over three years ago.
  • Last week’s USDA report estimated world rapeseed production for 2021/22 at 100.5 mln t (+10%). It put Canada’s output at 20 mln t versus 20.90 mln t from Stats Can.
  • MATIF rapeseed traded close to contract highs once again. But rumours of biofuel mandates being amended pressured prices, whilst equally, a lack of rain is reducing EU crop potential. Prices fell sharply yesterday (€40) following outside markets.
  • Sterling weakened with UK inflation at highs, currently trading at 1.18000, which offered some support.

Pulses

Beans

  • New crop has followed the Nov 22 wheat market over the past week. Premiums have squeezed due to recent volatility.
  • Old crop has been supported by slightly higher values, despite limited demand across the board through May. Old crop has not followed the volatility seen in the wheat market.

Peas

  • Old crop peas demand remains thin. If any open market pulses remain on farm, please get in touch with your farm trader, as our facility at Long Sutton still hosts open positions.
  • New crop buybacks will be available in the coming weeks. Please keep an eye out for a message from your representative.
  • ADM’s inaugural VIPea open day invitations were sent out earlier this week. For anyone interested in growing peas in the coming years it could be very useful. Talks from Keith Costello and James Barlow will help to increase your knowledge around the specialist crop and answer any questions you may have.

Seed

Variety Days

  • We have now begun our variety of demonstration days, with many more coming up over the next few weeks across the country. It is not too late to get booked onto a variety day close to you. Contact your farm trader for more information.

OSR

  • We have a great OSR portfolio, with some varieties available on market-leading establishment schemes, allowing growers to spread the risk of establishing their crops.

Small Seeds

  • We offer a variety of grass seeds to suit many requirements, whether that be intensive cutting, grazing, hay production and more.
  • We offer a range of Countryside Stewardship mixes. Enquire with your farm trader to find out more.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.1805 1.2405 1.051
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
May22 315-330 320-340 360-365 795-800
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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