Market Report

Thursday 17 October 2019

Wheat

  • US wheat prices are up about $7/t on the week, as global prices continue to firm, although trade continues to monitor US/China trade progress following overnight news that China would retaliate if US Congress enacts legislation supporting the Hong Kong protestors.
  • US spring harvests continue to lag, with corn and soybeans reported at 22% and 26% complete respectively, although crop conditions remains stable.
  • US winter wheat sowings progressing well at 65% planted and 41% emerged, in line with last year and the 5-yr average, although moisture levels still being reported at below last year.
  • BAGE have reduced their projection of the Argentine 2019 wheat crop to 18.5mln t, citing adverse weather conditions for their reduction.
  • Kazakhstan will have almost 3mln t less grain available for exports this year, due to a lower harvest, the Agriculture Minister reported.
  • On Monday, Russian Agriculture consultancy, IKAR, raised its forecast for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop by 200,000t to 75.6mln t.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 405,000t of wheat for Nov 20-30 shipment (285,000t Russian/60,000t Ukrainian and 60,000t French) at its latest tender. The average price was roughly $9/t more than the previous tender (last week) and confirms the recent rally in Black Sea wheat offers.
  • EU prices (Matif) are up €4/t on the week, supported by the rise in Black Sea prices and ongoing strong demand for export.
  • UK prices (futures) have bucked the global trend, trading down £3/t on the week, as sterling continues to strengthen on news that the UK & EU have agreed a ‘great new deal’ for Brexit.
  • In summary, global prices continue to firm, although the UK remains in the grip of Brexit, with reports of a deal being done today, although government approval both in the UK and the EU will be required.
  • Weather concerns in relationship to American spring crops, and declining southern hemisphere wheat crop outlooks, are seen providing support to the market, although growing global stocks continues to provide resistance to a major rise.

Malting Barley

  • EU and UK malting prices have risen slightly this week.
  • The continuing wet weather is impacting on winter sowing and we estimate only 5% of the winter barley area has been sown.
  • It now looks very likely that we will have an increased spring barley area.
  • Growers are advised to secure their spring seed sooner rather than later, as the top varieties will sell out.
  • Growers are also advised to put a percentage of their malting barley on contract and secure their preferred movement period.

Rapeseed

  • Matif rapeseed comes under further pressure this week as fund selling pushes the November contract to lows of €380.25 – levels not seen since early September.
  • GBP/EUR trades sharply higher week on week, as perceived progress in Brexit negotiations gives sterling support and forces UK rapeseed prices £15 lower week on week.
  • Australian farmer selling of rapeseed remains slow despite harvest getting started in the past week.
  • CBOT soybeans have come off last week’s highs, as uncertainty surrounding the US/China trade deal returns, after what was deemed as positive progress last week.
  • Drier forecasts in the US Midwest will encourage harvest to pick up pace. As it currently stands, harvest progress is at 26% vs. 49% last year.
  • Brazilian Parana soybean planting at 33% vs. 47% same time last year.

Pulses

Beans

  • An increase in the value of the GBP has seen ex farm values weaken.
  • Demand for feed beans remains strong in the short-term, but less so for later in the year. Domestic usage is still relatively low.
  • Human consumption demand is variable as quality remains the key worldwide driver.

Peas

  • Interest for 2020 harvest has picked up with wet weather across the country. Buybacks are available through ADM Agriculture and are non-defaultable.
  • Demand remains relatively static as Canada finishes their harvest despite snow.

Seed

Autumn Seed

  • Late drilling wheat varieties such as KWS Siskin, Shabras, KWS Crispin, will be carried in stock through to January.
  • Any wheat ordered now should have Vibrance Duo as standard.
  • A small balance of winter barley stock remains available for immediate delivery.
  • All oats and beans are now sold out.

Spring Seed

  • It looks like there will be high demand for spring seed given the weather this autumn.
  • Spring wheat will be at a premium, so requirements should be covered ASAP.
  • A good amount of spring barley seed is currently available.
  • Anyone looking for a feed spring barley should look no further than LG Diablo.
  • Phosphite seed treatments should be used on all spring cereals and pulses to counteract cold, wet seedbeds.

Fertiliser

  • An increase in global urea sales last week saw granular urea trade off the floor, moving up $ 5-7 tonne FOB Egypt, following support from a flush of European buying and 1mln+ t Metals and Minerals Trading Corporation of India tender.
  • The outlook on the global urea market for Q4 now appears firmer, as an estimated further 2-3mln t is still required in India following the most favourable monsoon in 25 years.
  • Further European buying is anticipated from North Africa in the coming weeks. Speak to your ADM Agriculture farm trader today on our October/November/December urea terms.
  • The future price direction of imported fertilisers in the UK could be defined over the next two weeks, depending on the outcome of events in Brussels and Westminster. A 6.5% tariff still threatens imported nitrogenous fertiliser in the event of a no deal.
  • Risk mitigation is still encouraged as all political outcomes still seem to be on the table and imported fertilisers have higher upside risk potential than the downside correction.
  • UK ammonium nitrate manufacturer, CF, have announced they will be withdrawing their terms on Friday 18th. New terms are not expected imminently.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.1595 1.289 1.111
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Nov19 117-121 126-134 175-185 318-323
May20 123-127 132-140 181-191 324-329
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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