Market reports

Wheat

Shortly after UK markets closed, an announcement was made regarding a 90-day pause on the implementation of tariffs across most markets – though notably, this does not include China. Markets continue to digest the daily change in direction of international economic policy and hunt for sentiment, however, for now at least, it seems markets are turning neutral on the expectation of stronger demand turning back to North America in the short term.

Key Factors

• Grain prices firmed slightly following last night’s announcement that the implementation of the ‘Freedom Day’ tariffs will be delayed for at least 90 days. This was primarily driven by an expectation that US growers will be able to participate more actively in external markets for now, and we have seen follow through strength in European markets today. The S&P also jumped 8% higher — its biggest daily gain since 2020 — with Japan’s Nikkei following suit this morning, after a tumultuous week and markets suffering their biggest losses last week, since the early pandemic days.
• Despite the broader tariff delay, China raised tariffs on US goods to 84% in retaliation for earlier US moves which took tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, deepening strain in bilateral trade and casting uncertainty over future grain exchanges – particularly relevant in the oilseeds and corn spheres.
• With the continued glorious weather here in the UK, new crop development is looking positive, although reports are suggesting many would benefit from some additional moisture in the not-too-distant future, which the forecast supports. There are some concerns around French winter wheat though, and specifically for crops with waterlogged feet following a wet winter & sub-standard root structures which are potential flags should we see a prolonged dry spell.
• Both GBP and EUR are looking comparatively firmer than they have done in recent times, which will hamper new crop export competitiveness potentially, however this has been more than offset by the macro lift in grain prices we have seen over the last couple of sessions.
  
  

Outlook
The grain market is starting to lean towards a gently neutral sentiment, fed by a combination of market uncertainty beginning to ease, concerns around poor root establishment in some areas of Western Europe, and the typical Easter rally starting to kick in as per the seasonality, all against a backdrop of spill-over neutral sentiment following the 90 day tariff delay by the US, supporting US grain prices. However, volatility remains high, and any rallies — especially in European grains — are likely to be limited and well-sold due to high levels of unsold stocks remaining across multiple crop years. With particular sensitivity to further geopolitical developments.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets, for another week, are close to non-existent. Old crop is a done deal, meanwhile new crop continues to drift with little impetus other than that caused by FX rates.

Key Factors

• The weather forecast is starting to improve, and rains are now starting to creep into the forecast for next week, which comes as a relief following weeks of dry weather. Now that rains are forecast, there are no supply concerns to worry about and eyes will turn back towards demand, which remains sluggish.
  
  

Outlook
As is always the case at this time of year, watching weather maps is the main objective of the market. Today, crops are looking well and should benefit from rains in the forecast. It is likely that markets will drift as premiums remain healthy and demand slow.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets remain extremely illiquid for another week, and markets are not really trading. Barley remains competitive in domestic and export markets, meanwhile farmer selling is slow, however demand is also noticeably disengaged which is keeping activity to a minimum.

Key Factors

• Global economic turmoil has been the main driver of barley price action over the last week, most notably due to the resulting volatility in FX rates from the White House tariff announcement. Due to a significant drop in GBP/EUR, nominal export levels have jumped sharply, however finding a buyer to pay these prices is still a challenge.
• Domestic markets are quiet, and consumers are not really engaged in the market as conditions remain dry and forage growth is picking up, which is not supporting spot demand, and the main buying activity is from trade shorts as farmer selling remains extremely slow.
• New crop prices are once again well offered by the market, as traders look to make sales against a reluctant consumer. Overall, crop prospects point to a comfortable surplus to be harvested next season and barley is looking overpriced as a result relative to other feed products.
  
  

Outlook
Foreign exchange markets will continue to be the main driver going forward, however it is likely we will see continued sideways price action in old crop markets, with a well established price floor battling sluggish demand. New crop levels will continue to follow wheat markets for now, but we retain the view that UK barley needs to depreciate relatively in order to find the necessary demand in both domestic and export markets.

Rapeseed

It has been a characteristically volatile week for agricultural markets, with prices reacting to rapidly evolving trade-related headlines. A series of conflicting announcements regarding a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries, excluding China, has contributed to market uncertainty. China now faces a combined tariff rate of 125% following recent developments, while other countries have been given the opportunity to negotiate terms. These shifts have had a noticeable impact on currency and equity markets, adding to the overall choppiness in commodity pricing.

Key Factors

• Outside tariff talk, soybeans have found some support this week as China have been keen buyers of Brazilian beans, bringing basis higher to the point of making US beans more competitive. We are set to hit a record for the amount of Brazilian beans shipped to China in Q2. We have seen one flash sale this week of 198,000mt beans to unknown. We have also seen weekly export inspections in the US at the highest in 5 years for this week of the year as some countries are getting covered before tariffs hit.
• Crude oil has fallen to 4 year lows this week as tariff war and trade tensions brings concern over global demand. Coming at the same time as OPEC+ countries agreeing to continue to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May. Saudi Arabia has cut its oil prices to Asia for May by $2.30, the lowest level in 4 months on the largest one month decline in two years. This week’s API report showed a 1.1 million barrel draw vs. expectations for a 1.4 million barrel increase.
• Canola prices have done well this week due to the fact that canola and its products is protected from tariffs under the USMCA (US, Mexico, Canada Agreement). We have had some support from D4 RIN’s now trading over $1.00/gallon vs. $0.65 average in December (which are a tracking number for biofuels meaning higher RIN price – higher biofuel price to the crusher). This has brought the new crop Canola/MATIF spread back towards support levels meaning that we will not be seeing any further canola trading into the EU until something changes. On farm bids in Canada have now managed to get back to the $14/bushel level for new crop which did bring some selling which will continue to help buy some share for the planting campaign.
• MATIF rapeseed prices have very much been caught in the middle of wider markets and sharp currency moves. We do have a USDA update this afternoon, but it is unclear how much this will be able to steal the spotlight, though there aren’t any significant changes expected for the soy complex bar a 1.2mmt reduction in the Argentina crop. In the UK, there is still demand for old crop seed though coverage continues to improve with Liverpool and Erith now focussed on June coverage. New crop remains quiet as there is no rush from the farmer or the consumer to commit with the European crop still looking positive.
  
  

Outlook
From here, we do see seasonality turn lower next week, though not for long. The main thing will be seeing how negotiations progress between the US and others. Importantly how the relationship with China proceed considering that currently they have very large tariffs going both ways. Momentum for canola prices does still look good and we have seen some support for Soyoil and crude. Crusher margins are not bad currently, though there is a slight flag in biofuel margins which do have potential to leak into rapeseed/canola.

Oats

European oat markets unsupported by US tariffs 

Key Factors

• Confirmation that Canadian oats will be except from tariffs into the US as part of the USMCA (United States Mexica Canada Agreement) has eased concerns from US millers and Canadian exporters alike. This means that currently traditional trade flows through North America will continue and therefore EU supplies will not be competitive
• Europe will currently see tariffs of 20% for any exports into the US. This has weakened the support for Scandinavian prices who were hoping for some demand to absorb some of their old crop surplus.
• Dry weather will continue throughout Sweden, Finland, Germany, France and the UK this week, further reducing soil moisture reserves which could be adverse to recently planted spring crops.
• Feed oat markets remained quiet over the last week. Spain continues to experience widespread rainfall and this is supporting the idea of another good crop of oats. Consequentially bids are hard to find.
• Here in the UK market activity generally remains quiet. Some old crop is trading but volumes are relatively small. New crop has traded for small amounts domestically but we need to see the strong buying interest from the retailers in order to help get markets going.
• A 3% fall in £/€ week on week (1.200 vs 1.165) has added some support to oat prices, however export demand is needed in order to realise this price action. 
• New crop prospects have slightly reduced over the last week with all areas suffering from a lack of rainfall. Evening temperatures have also been cold with frosts experienced in northern parts. Rain is however forecast for the Easter break and this will hopefully coincide with some warmer min temperatures.
  
  

Outlook
Some rain in the forecast for key European oat growing areas next week should ease some of the dryness concerns, however if this is not realised then this weather flag will remain.

Pulses

Overall, a slightly more active week on pulses, despite the approaching East Holidays. Interest has primarily been around late season and the start of New Crop, with the drilling progress starting to entice some conversations out of people.

Key Factors

• Ramadan and Eid is now over across the Muslim world, and Egypt is becoming more active again. There is relatively little appetite for old crop beans now from North Africa, as the quality starts to decline. Attention is turning towards the new crop, although at these values, there is little interest for now.
• With the Spring Drilling campaign have progressed exceptionally well, the next step will be now to see how emergence comes, with rainfall needed across many areas, just to kick the pulses in to action. With soil moisture present to some degree though, we could potentially see a strong root network at least, and a healthy establishment.
• Another choppy week in the markets, with uncertainty and volatility remaining the dominant themes. However, the recent decision to implement a 90-day reprieve on additional tariffs, excluding China, has provided some short-term reassurance and may help to stabilise sentiment for now. Now is an ideal opportunity to speak to your Farm Trading representative around what marketing options are available to you and how to manage the spill-over risk from other commodities and currency fluctuations. Pulses often suffer from a lack of consistent, reliable information at the best of times, so it is well worth speaking to your Farm Trader who can explain the raft of marketing options we have available to help you navigate these opaque markets.
• New Crop bean premiums remain firm. The drilling campaign has gone well to date, and we shall start to see beans emerging shortly, if not already. As long as we start to see some moisture, the early growth stages should go well and lead to some strong establishment. The last week has seen the underlying wheat price firm, and so new crop bean values have also ticked up slightly. However, with the firming wheat values and the potential of a healthy establishment of the new crop, this could be the impetus required to see new crop premiums come under pressure and start moving lower.
• Peas are much the same as Beans, with limited old crop interest. There are still a few gaps to fill between now and June for feed peas and yellows should long holders want to clear the stores ahead of harvest. New crop plantings have got off to a good start but it won’t be long before rain is needed to help germination.  
  
  

Outlook
The overall theme of geopolitical and tariff volatility remains the main backdrop to our markets, although last night’s 90 day reprieve will no doubt be well received. The recent pull back in GBP values will ease our export competitiveness slightly for new crop, however the currency remains firm and will do little to assist new crop competitiveness. With the increased market volatility, growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support.

Seed

The dry weather has enabled Spring drillings to continue at a good rate with land that appeared to be out of reach coming back in to play which has been good news for all.

Key Factors:

• Drillings of spring Linseed have increased over the last 10 days with good interest in Bliss, Bingo & Skylark coupled with the exciting linseed buy back contract offered by ADM Agriculture.
• Game maize remains an interesting topic as thoughts move towards planning and drilling, We have a wide portfolio of product including blended Maize as well as straights .
• Stocks of certain forage, AD & grain maize varieties are getting tighter by the day so if you have any specific enquiries please give us a call to discuss your needs ensuring you get the product of your choice when you need it .
• We are pleased to offer a wide range of grass leys for both agricultural and amenity situations which are readily available for delivery. Whether it’s a short term cutting mix to a long term grazing pasture, we have some great mixes to choose from. Plus, hard wearing to fine lawn mixtures.
  
  

Outlook
With time moving on towards Autumn drillings and variety choice, please take a look at our latest catalogue to get the latest information on new and existing varieties.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

• Prices rebound on temporary tariff pause, but risks remain as storage challenges loom.
  
  

Key Factors:

• European futures jumped over 6% to €35.7/MWh after reaching a seven-month low, buoyed by the 90-day delay on most global tariffs.
• US-China trade tensions persist, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125%, clouding LNG trade flows.
• European storage injections have begun early and are running above the five-year average, but storage levels remain historically low post-winter.
• US gas futures surged over 8% to above $3.7/MMBtu, supported by falling production and firm heating demand forecasts.
• Record US LNG exports continue, with flows to terminals near all-time highs.
  
  

Outlook
The tariff reprieve has provided short-term relief to global gas markets, but structural supply risks in Europe and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly around LNG trade and China, will continue to drive volatility through Q2. Storage refilling progress will be closely watched

Ammonia

Limited upside as paused tariffs dampen premium potential; NW Europe remains steady.

Key Factors:

• The pause of tariffs on US imports affecting Trinidadian ammonia has removed a key factor that had been expected to support inland North American prices.
• Import demand into Northwest Europe remains steady but largely quiet, with new spot deals conducted discreetly.
• NW European prices hover around $500/t CFR, maintaining a relatively firm level despite weaker global sentiment.
• Broader sentiment remains subdued, driven by healthy supply and soft global demand.
• Market still watching for any sign of production cuts or import shifts that could rebalance fundamentals.

Outlook
With tariffs now on hold, expectations for a bullish inland US premium have faded. NW Europe remains stable but vulnerable to broader market softness as Q2 progresses. Overall, the market remains tilted toward the downside barring any surprise demand spikes.

Nitrates

UK demand holds prices firm as global sentiment remains cautious ahead of urea clarity.

Key Factors:

• Global AN buying remains hesitant, with Brazil and the Baltics still holding significant demand and waiting on clearer direction from urea markets.
• European demand remains subdued; France is expected to enter the new season within the next two weeks, and current interest remains low.
• Falling gas prices and softer ammonia benchmarks will ease pressure on European nitrate producers, although current costs remain above last year’s levels.
• In the UK, demand is strong with grassland buyers actively engaging and arable top-ups still being booked.
• CF Fertilisers in the UK has issued a full May offer at a £5/t premium, a move that provides partial cover for importers facing thin margins and limited availability.
  
  

Outlook
While global nitrate sentiment remains linked to urea’s trajectory, strong UK demand is providing insulation from broader weakness. With spring activity now in full swing and new CF offers stabilising trade, domestic prices are expected to hold steady even as global volatility lingers.

Urea

Global sentiment turns bullish again following strong Indian tender participation and US price rebound.

Key Factors:

• US granular urea prices have surged, recovering from a low of $395/st FOB to $425/st FOB for H1 April barges at NOLA, following the pause in US tariffs and revived demand.
• India’s long-awaited 1.5 Mt IPL tender received robust interest, with offers totalling over 3.55 Mt – more than double the initial requirement.
• The lowest offers were $385/t CFR west coast (Liven) and $398.24/t CFR east coast (Indagro), with counters now issued at those levels.
• Market expectations are growing that India will accept more than the 1.5 Mt initially targeted, which could significantly reduce available global supply.
• The US market still faces a ~3-3.5 Mt import requirement heading into Q2, which combined with India’s demand, has re-established some bullish momentum.
  
  

Outlook
After nearly six weeks of bearish sentiment, urea markets have turned sharply upwards. With Indian volume likely to exceed initial targets and the US import shortfall unresolved, producers are poised to capitalise on tightening supply. Expect further price firming globally as fundamentals tighten rapidly.

Potash

Global tightness keeps upward pressure on prices.

Key Factors:

• Potash prices continue to climb in Brazil and Southeast Asia, where limited availability for May shipments is tightening supply dynamics.
• US tariffs announced confirmed potash exemptions from all locations, removing a key risk premium from US pricing.
• In China, the national reserve has released over 981,000 t of MOP into the market via tenders, helping to bridge supply gaps and delay new import requirements.
• Global producers have yet to release Q2 pricing in some regions, suggesting further room for upside as the market waits for clarity.
• In the UK, supply remains tight and while price changes have been modest, strong seasonal demand could push prices higher into Q2.
  
  

Outlook
With confirmed tariff exemptions in the US removing one source of volatility, focus returns to global supply tightness and delayed Q2 offers.

Phosphates

Bullish momentum continues amid tight global availability and rising price benchmarks.

Key Factors:

• DAP sales into India have been reported at $668/t CFR, with expectations for upcoming deals to break $670/t CFR — significantly higher than the current assessment of $648–650/t CFR.
• Indian buyers appear ready to absorb higher costs due to critically low stocks, limited global supply, and government assurances of compensation to importers.
• Brazil is also expected to see further price increases on MAP, driven by tightening supply and firm demand.
• Chinese domestic market activity has slowed entering the off-season, though the market continues to watch for signs of export restrictions easing.
• The continued uncertainty around China’s export position is adding support to already high prices, with limited downside risk in the near term.
  
  

Outlook
Global phosphate markets are will remain in bullish territory through April, with rising prices underpinned by limited supply and strong demand in major markets like India and Brazil. In the UK, firm pricing is expected to hold as the international landscape continues to constrain availability.

Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.