Market reports

Wheat

• Chicago prices have firmed $3.95 per tonne week on week, mainly supported by bullish corn and bean reports released by the USDA last week.
• Adjustments in acreage, plus yield reductions, saw end-season stocks for both US corn and beans reduced. The larger than expected cut in corn stocks pushed the market higher, as spillover support entered the wheat complex. Wheat numbers were virtually unchanged, both within the US and on the Global front, and with US exports still running behind the pace to achieve the USDA projection, prices may need further support from external markets to support a longer-term rally.
• European prices have moved lower over the week, trading down €2.50/t. Russian wheat exports are beginning to slow, as expected, but there remains little sign of increased EU demand, with soft-wheat exports reported as reaching 11.5mln t as of January 12^th, down 35% year on year, due to heavy Black Sea competition.
• UK prices have risen just 45p/tonne week on week, as weaker European markets have been offset by a weaker UK£, which touched a 14-month low on concerns over the government’s borrowing costs. However, a surprise fall for inflation, down to 2.5% eased the pressure, with many now believing that interest rates may start to fall next month. With growers back up and running after the festive break, the recent hike in farm values has seen increased grower selling over the past week.
• In summary, the markets have absorbed the numbers released last week, which continue to support the corn and beans markets. For wheat, while it may try to hold onto the tails of these markets, short-term fundamentals remain negative as increased southern hemisphere supplies will replace lower Black Sea exports.

In summary, the markets have absorbed the numbers released last week, which continue to support the corn and beans markets. For wheat, while it may try to hold onto the tails of these markets, short-term fundamentals remain negative as increased southern hemisphere supplies will replace lower Black Sea exports.

Malting Barley

• Old crop malting barley markets remain stagnant with minimal demand, continuing the trend of recent months.
• Farmer selling is similarly slow, with prices only marginally above feed barley levels.
• New crop markets are flat, with FOB benchmark levels steady as the weakening Sterling is offset by lower continental markets.
• Favourable near-term weather conditions look promising ahead of the spring planting campaign with high pressure expected to continue. For another week, the spring planting campaign remains a key market focus heading into 2025 and will be the next big driver of price direction.

Feed Barley

• Continued weakness in Sterling against the Euro has boosted UK export competitiveness, with some trade taking place to Ireland.
• Lower futures prices later in the week however have led to a relaxed attitude from buyers, which is keeping prices from pushing higher.
• Farmer selling has increased significantly compared to recent weeks, with cash flow reportedly the main driver.
• Recent cold weather has driven spot feed demand across the UK although we still see consumers as largely covered until the summer.
• New crop prices continue to track wheat one-for-one, with no major developments or story to drive the barley at this time.

Rapeseed

• Agricultural markets have been relatively supported this week, following Friday’s USDA report giving us a few surprises. For the soybean complex, we saw a surprise drop in US yields to 50.7 bushels per acre vs. a range of 51.1-52.6 which therefore cut their production figure. Quarterly stocks were at the low end of the range at 3.10 Billion bushels. In South America, Brazilian production was left unchanged, despite an expected increase due to the favourable conditions we have seen there over the past month. Argentina production was also left unchanged. From here, the focus will shift back to the weather forecast, which shows relief in the form of rain in Southern Brazil and In Argentina we can expect temperatures to ease this weekend which will not stress the crop any further. AgRural have said that frequent rains in Mato Grosso (central Brazil) have the harvest pace at its slowest in 7 years.
• Energy markets have been sharply higher again this week following comments from the Chinese Vice Finance Minister to expect a more proactive Fiscal policy, further easing concerns over demand concerns. We also see cold temperatures in the US and Europe supporting the energy complex due to improved heating demand. We have also seen the US Treasury impose wider sanctions on Russian oil. These sanctions do include a wind down period until 12^th March so there may not be any instant disruptions. OPEC+ does also have capacity to make up for any shortfall as they are currently holding back 5.86 million barrels per day.
• Canola prices have been mixed this week, initially seeing some positivity with support from the rally in Soyoil giving more space in crush margins for interest to pick up, though this quickly quietened down through the week. We did also see an announcement from the US Treasury Department on the 45Z tax credit which allows producers of low carbon to claim $1/US Gallon for road use and $1.75 for aviation from now until the end of 2027. The Canola/MATIF spread continues to struggle higher, now trading just below $100 from circa $130 previously.
• MATIF rapeseed has also come higher and then lower through the week, giving us a relatively neat reversal pattern after being unable to break to new highs. This did give a good opportunity for some UK farmers to make the most of hitting yet another price target and lock in movement while it is still available.  UK consumer coverage is good now with most now looking into April and the rest of the season, showing a good carry from nearby positions. In the EU, positivity in Soyoil prices and improved margins has prompted some crushers to switch into crushing soy from rapeseed.

Oats

• European oat markets continues to see minimal trade activity due to buyers taking significant forward cover post harvest.
• Milling oats remain on offer for Q1 and Q2 positions but at prices that are above previous traded levels and above where buyers may be interested.
• Feed oats are seeing some interest into Spain, with some cargoes being traded out of the Baltics over the last few weeks. But the enquiries seen this last week are likely to be more price checking than fresh buying interest.
• Here in the UK milling oats remain well supplied and buyers continue to be well covered for nearby positions.
• Export pace currently is well behind the curve and this will need to start picking up in order to avoid a large carryout.
• Some buyers are valuing the old crop milling oats and will be happy to take good cover into the new marketing year given the known quality and high milling efficiencies of the 2024/25 crop.
• Feed oats remain largely untradable given the lack of feed oats available.
• Widespread flooding in January has impacted some of the winter crops in the midlands and this could also have a negative impact on spring oat drillings if the soil is unable to dry out in time.

Bottom line, oat markets remain well supplied with buyers very much in the driving seat

Pulses

• Another quiet week for pulses over the last week, although there has been some export demand for processed pulses. Domestic buyers are still showing little interest in feed beans at the current pricing parities, whilst North Africa is showing some interest for now, however this will soon come to an end with the approaching demand lull of Ramadan coinciding with wholesale availability of Australian new crop.
• Domestic feed continues to be quiet, although there are some glimmers of interest. Pricing is broadly unchanged on the week, with Beans still c. £15/mt away from competing against imported feedstuffs. As we have written regularly, beans still need to do more work to close the gap further.
• Looking to the week ahead, the UK is in for a dry week, with temperatures due to be decidedly average for this time of year. After the excess moisture of the last couple of weeks, this will no doubt be a welcome reprieve for growers, allowing land to start drying out.
• UK pea prices remain static. Consumers are still reluctant to take additional coverage for 2025 given the recent influx of cheaper Canadian peas now reaching Europe.
• The outlook for 2025 continues to look buoyant for UK peas, we still have availability of our large blue pea buyback for 2025/26 so please contact your Farm Trader Representative for further details.
• Finally, a reminder for those eligible for PGRO membership, if you’re not already on the PGRO mailing list, sign up here, where levy payers can access a wealth of free advice and support, drawing from PGRO’s extensive knowledge on pulses.

Seed

• With Spring on the horizon, variety availability is beginning to tighten. Market leader Laureate is proving a popular choice again this Spring, offering growers high yields and a good disease package. Suitable for both brewing and malt distilling, Laureate is still the one to beat.
• New from the Secobra programme, Belter looks to be an new, exciting, provisional variety, currently being tested for both brewing use and malt distilling. The variety boasts an excellent disease and agronomic package plus a high treated and untreated yield.
• Lynx, Spring Beans are now becoming limited so it is advised to book soon to avoid disappointment.
• Similarly, oat seed availability is extremely tight so make sure to speak to your Farm Trader Representative to secure your requirements.

Will you be drilling maize this Spring? At ADM, we have a wide portfolio of varieties available, ranging in maturities and suitability for different end uses including forage, AD, game cover and grain.

Don’t delay, book your small seeds today! Whether you are looking for SFI seed, grass seed or something else, we have a vast choice of mixtures and straights to offer.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures declined to €46 per megawatt-hour, maintaining stability despite colder temperatures driving increased demand. Current gas storage levels sit at 65% full, noticeably below the 77% recorded at this time last year, though there is no immediate risk of shortages. Forecasts project colder-than-average temperatures in northwest Europe from 17-22 January, compounded by weak wind power generation until 24 January, which will likely increase reliance on natural gas.
• Adding complexity, the EU is deliberating a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as part of broader sanctions. This comes despite record LNG imports from Russia in 2024, even as pipeline gas flows have steadily decreased in recent years.

Ammonia

• Ammonia prices in Northwest Europe are experiencing some downward pressure, primarily due to more competitive pricing out of the Americas, the main supply source for European buyers. Traders reported a sale into Northwest Europe last week, estimated in the $555-565/mt CFR range.
• Adding to the market challenges, a major German fertiliser manufacturer has halted operations at one of its two ammonia lines and scaled back fertiliser production due to an unviable economic environment. This highlights the ongoing strain faced by European producers, as confirmed in our recent  ADM Agriculture video discussing the risks to production under current economic conditions.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• European ammonium nitrate markets are responding to recent price adjustments by Yara, with other producers now following suit to reflect rising replacement costs amid stretched production capacity in Europe. In the UK, AN prices increased by £10 per tonne from the week commencing 6January, driven by the return of European demand from major buyers, supported gas prices, and bullish urea market sentiment.
• While some downside risks may emerge in the broader market outlook, they are unlikely to influence retail AN pricing in the UK through the spring season, as current fundamentals provide robust support for sustained price levels.

Urea

• The global urea market continues to show upward momentum, with prices rising across key export regions. Black Sea granular urea is now assessed at $395-405/t FOB, reflecting a $20-30/t increase since 9 January, driven by strong bullish sentiment since the beginning of the year.
• In Egypt, a major producer reported selling 10,000 tonnes of granular urea for February loading at $432/t FOB, marking a $2/t increase from earlier this week. This highlights the sustained strength in the market.
• The upcoming Indian import tender through RCF for 1.5 Mt of prilled or granular urea, closing on 23 January, is pivotal. The previous tender fell short of securing its target due to higher returns for traders in other markets and pricing complications for East Coast India volumes. Market participants are closely monitoring this event, as it could set the tone for global urea pricing in the near term.
• In the UK, urea prices are rising steadily, reflecting a combination of bullish global sentiment and the impact of a firm US dollar, which is adding over £20 per tonne to costs since October 2024. Importers are carefully managing this dual pressure, and further adjustments are expected as global trends and exchange rates continue to shape the market.

Potash

• The recent bullish momentum in the potash market is beginning to taper off, with prices now expected to remain flat to firm in the near term. While favourable affordability continues to support demand, elevated inventory levels are likely to cap any significant price increases.
• In the UK, the potash market has experienced minor nominal price adjustments. However, overall pricing remains largely stable, reflecting subdued domestic activity and the broader trend of limited movement across global markets.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept, and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.