Market reports

Wheat

• Grain markets cooled this week, with wheat prices facing resistance after recent gains. CBOT wheat closed 15 cents lower, while MATIF wheat ended the week €2 higher. In contrast, London wheat declined by over £1. The U.S. market, which had seen speculative buying in recent sessions, experienced a shift in sentiment following weaker-than-expected export data. This led to speculative selling, reversing previous gains.
• European wheat markets also faced some pressure, though losses were limited by a weaker Euro relative to the U.S. dollar. Overall, the recent rally in wheat prices seems to have run its course, as prices tested and then broke through contract lows.
• In the US, wheat prices slipped to approach contract lows, something we saw earlier in the year. Previously this has acted as a floor providing some support but markets crashed through this and moved lower into the week. Weaker export numbers triggered a cooling effect in the market. Export numbers remain strong overall, but the week’s data indicated lower-than-expected wheat sales, which led to a pullback in prices to hit this low.
• South American weather forecasts continue to support strong crop prospects, with Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange increasing its wheat production forecast by 500,000 tons to 19.3 million metric tons. This positive outlook from South America added pressure to wheat prices globally as the market anticipates ample supplies.
• In Russia, SovEcon lowered its 2025 wheat production forecast by 3 million tons to 78.7 million metric tons, making the lowest forecast in four years. This reduction came after a challenging growing season, and it may have a bullish impact on wheat markets if realised. The potential for tighter Russian supply could add volatility in the coming months, especially with Russia seeking to curb wheat exports to manage inflation through higher taxes and minimum sales prices.
• The AHDB released its final UK 2024 cereal and oilseed harvest estimates this week, revealing the full impact of the difficult 2023/24 growing season. UK wheat production is expected to fall by 13%, driven by significant losses in winter cereals and oilseeds. The report underlined the challenges of last autumn’s weather and provided the market with a more definitive outlook. This decline in production comes after a season marked by extreme weather, leaving farmers with fewer wheat supplies than usual. However, with spring barley helping to offset some of the losses, this data provides a useful benchmark for the UK wheat market moving forward.
• Cash markets in the UK have been quiet, with farmer selling slowing down significantly as the holiday season approaches. While there has been some localized buying interest in new crop wheat, the overall market sentiment has been weighed down by futures selling pressure. This trend is expected to persist into the new year, with farmer selling continuing to be a key factor in price movements.
• This week, Saudi Arabia’s state grain buying agency (GFSA) issued an international tender to purchase 595,000 metric tons of milling wheat. The market is anticipating a strong presence from Russian wheat, though offers are expected from other origins, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and other Black Sea regions. This tender highlights ongoing global competition for wheat exports, and it will be an important indicator of market dynamics in the coming days.
• The wheat market faces a mixed outlook as we approach the end of 2024. While South American weather continues to support expectations for ample supplies, a reduction in Russian wheat production and ongoing competition in the global export market could keep the market volatile. The recent cooling of prices following speculative selling indicates that upside potential may be limited in the short term, especially with wheat prices facing resistance levels on both sides of the Atlantic. The coming weeks will likely be marked by further price consolidation as traders assess production forecasts, weather conditions, and global export dynamics.

Malting Barley

• For yet another week there is little to report from the malting barley market. Demand remains elusive which is keeping premiums depressed, particularly as feed barley prices have found some support in recent weeks.
• With little opportunity apparent for old crop, the focus for most now is on the new crop season for which we have a range of contracts available, including our innovative risk-mitigating fund barley pricing model.

Feed Barley

• The feed barley market is focussed mainly on Christmas execution with logistics for the festive period always posing a challenge, and outside of this period both supply and demand remains subdued. Prices are largely unchanged on the week.
• Following last week’s logistical issues on the Moselle River we have seen a small quantity of barley trade into the Netherlands for January, however unfortunately this event failed to spark any major demand. Although the UK is a competitive origin for North EU coaster markets, corn is still pricing aggressively in destination markets which is limiting demand for feed barley.
• Domestic demand in the UK market should remain buoyant as we head into 2025, with barley still pricing at historically attractive levels in feed rations.
• New crop continues to be offered defensively by the trade with a general lack of farmer selling making hedging sales a challenging prospect.

Rapeseed

• The agricultural markets have mostly been lower so far this week, with South American weather alongside swings in currency still pressuring prices and optimism surrounding the Chinese economy yet to improve. We have seen numerous reports of flash sales, though last weeks weekly export figures were disappointing.
• In South America, forecasts remain positive and it looks like we will be seeing the record crop that most look for. In Argentina, we have seen some areas come close to drought, but overall the key growing areas do not look threatened. Argentinian soybean plantings are reported ahead of normal at 65% completes now with crop ratings at 65% good/excellent (30% last year).
• Crude oil prices have not moved much so far this week, last week we saw crude hit a 5 week high over ideas of a more positive Chinese economy, though this was taken back after Chinese retail sales data came in lower than expected. The weekly API report helped offset currency moves, the US crude stocks fell to 4.69 million barrels vs. expectations of a 1.6 million barrel fall.
• Malaysia palm oil tax will be a maximum of 10% in January with the price 5001.72 ringgit/mt. Indonesia’s palm oil exports have fallen 11.21% month on month in November.
• Canola prices have come lower, pressured by the soy complex as well as wider veg oils. The drop in soy oil has not helped margins improve so far, and as such they remain low. After the recent rally, holiday season approaching and lack of carry enticed some farmer selling.  The big question still remains, what will China’s off-take be for the remained of the season?
• MATIF rapeseed prices also seem to have reached a near term highs and fallen back now that crushers have sorted their tender logistics around the Moselle River. The Feb/May spread looks to reached its high for now and has slowly started to bring the inverse back. It is again becoming apparent that MATIF rapeseed sits within a complex facing a sizeable correction in palm prices and a drop in soy oil/soy in the U.S. Margins still have some improving to do, so nearby it looks like prices may have seen their high.

Oats

• European oat markets remain very quiet with very little trade being reported over the last week.
• Milling oats remain largely untradeable with buyers absent from the market and sellers looking for too much money due to a lack of fresh farmer selling.
• Some parcels of feeds oats have traded from the Baltics, but demand is generally small.
• Here in the UK, prices remain under pressure thanks to a general lack of demand. Dec/Feb positions are reportedly covered with sellers looking for nearby demand.
• Conditions of the winter crop remains largely good, but questions remain as to how much spring oat plantings will be impacted by higher prices for other commodities.
• Bottom line, markets are very quiet but in general over supply could weigh on prices if sellers come into the market.

Pulses

• Welcome to the final pulse market report of the year! The market is now all but done for 2024, with many growers already shut for Christmas. Consumers are also quiet, with the trade very much focussed on remaining logistics requirements ahead of the festive period next week. Of the beans that have been traded, most transactions have occurred in the new year, primarily around late spring/early summer. February space is now starting to fill in, and January is all but done, so it is worth looking further forward on your marketing options. There are still wet beans out there – for those that can’t dry, please contact your farm trading representative, as we have drying options available.
• Human consumption premiums are starting to look like they may come under pressure from the armada of Australian new crop heading towards North Africa. There will still be some limited domestic demand though, so keep speaking to your farm trader representative and send in any samples which could have some quality to them.
• As mentioned above, domestic feed demand is slow, with beans struggling to find much demand away from the poultry sector. Bean pricing remains a steady c. £20-25/mt away from competing compared to imported feedstuffs, and until this gap is closed, it is unlikely we will see a pickup in demand. With this in mind, we will likely see beans come under further downward pressure in the new year.
• Looking to the week ahead, England is in for a damp week this week, although the North West, Scotland and Wales are still due plenty of precipitation. A mild Christmas appears to be on the cards across the whole of the UK.
• Pea values dip from recent highs on better supply prospects as we head into 2025. There are still very competitive buybacks available for large blue varieties for those still to secure a contract. Please speak to your farm trader representative for further detail.
• Finally, a reminder for those eligible for PGRO membership, if you’re not already on the PGRO mailing list, sign up here, where levy payers can access a wealth of free advice and support, drawing from PGRO’s extensive knowledge on pulses.

Seed

• As we near the new year, we start to think about spring plantings. At ADM, we have a number of market leading varieties available including Laureate and some brilliant pea varieties including Kabuki and Adder Marrowfats, Daytona and Butterfly Large Blues, and Concerto Yellow. We can also offer some great buybacks alongside the seed.
• If you will be planting maize this spring, get in touch with your farm trader representative to hear all about our vast portfolio of maize varieties suited to multiple end uses, including forage, AD, grain and game cover.
• On the pulses, we have a demand for large blue peas for both human consumption and seed production, we are able to offer various options to suit, if you have an interest in growing peas or beans please contact you local farm trader representative to explore what we can offer.

Fertiliser

Market Overview

• Global nitrogen markets are under the spotlight this week, driven by India’s pivotal urea tender through NFL for 1.5 million tonnes, a volume that exceeded expectations. The tender, closing on 19 December, has catalysed a sharp price rally across key exporting regions. Egyptian FOB values have surged dramatically, with granular urea from Abu Qir and Mopco trading as high as $390/t FOB for January loading—a robust recovery from mid-November lows near $350/t FOB.
• While the Indian tender has provided strong price support, China’s absence from the export market continues to restrict global supply flexibility. Export restrictions, in place since 7 June, persist, contributing to the bullish sentiment and upward momentum in urea prices. Current Chinese urea storage levels exceed 8 million tonnes, further amplifying market uncertainty.
• In Europe and the UK, nitrogen markets are contending with tightening supply and rising replacement costs. In the UK, the Ammonium Nitrate and Urea market has experienced widespread withdrawals since 6 December, as importers recalibrate prices in response to the global urea rally and elevated European production costs. Delivered on-farm prices have increased by £10-15/t, reflecting the broader global trends.
• Despite some recent replenishment, UK nitrogen on-farm stocks remain behind cropping demand. Regional discrepancies persist, but the market is estimated to be 38% unfulfilled, with an 8% rollover in stock year on year. Growers with unfulfilled volumes are advised to secure imminent purchase, as while product availability is expected, the range of options could narrow significantly as we move through Q1.

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures are holding steady at €41 per megawatt-hour as the market evaluates the potential availability of Russian gas for Europe beyond year-end. Slovakia has indicated progress in negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow to extend Russian gas transit through Ukraine into next year. Such a deal would maintain critical supply streams to Europe during the winter, particularly benefiting key clients in Austria and Italy.
• Despite this potential resolution, the EU’s continued drive to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels has spurred speculative long positions in European gas markets. Concurrently, economies are ramping up efforts to diversify energy sources amid this uncertainty. German utilities have signed LNG supply agreements with the UAE’s ADNOC, bolstering energy security, while record-breaking wind power generation in the UK has enabled increased electricity exports to the continent, further reducing dependence on natural gas.

Ammonia

• The ammonia market remains subject to subdued demand, despite suppliers offering at reduced levels on both sides of Suez. Improving supply, alongside lacklustre interest across multiple regions, signals further potential declines as the market approaches year-end.
• A European producer is rumoured to have sourced a fresh spot cargo from Algeria, though confirmation and price details remain pending. Last reported FOB levels in the low-$570s/t range continue to net delivered prices into Northwest Europe at over $600/t CFR – a price point that has deterred most importers from entering the spot market.
• East of Suez, business remains slow in the Middle East, though reports of a potentially earlier-than-expected outage at a notable AN production unit have drawn interest. Market participants, however, believe the downtime will have minimal impact on the already softening regional market. In India, buyers are resisting current price levels.
• Restarts at AOA and Fertial are contributing to growing supply and exerting downward pressure on prices. In Northwest Europe, this bearish trend offers some relief to buyers, as demand remains muted and delivered prices – which until recently hovered at year-high levels – have begun to soften. Producers are pushing to stimulate demand beyond piecemeal purchasing with week-on-week price reductions in Europe.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• The AN market continues its firming trend.
• In the UK, the AN market continues to experience widespread withdrawal by importers since last Friday the 6th of December. The shift reflects a recalibration to replacement costs from European production, which have increased significantly relative to previously delivered prices in the UK. Although some liquidity has returned, UK nitrogen stocks remain alarmingly short relative to cropping demand. Estimates suggest current availability would only cover a 9.8-million-tonne wheat crop, compared to an anticipated 14.4-million-tonne requirement.
• These Upward price adjustments have now emerged in both the UK and across Europe. In the UK, delivered AN prices have risen by approximately £10-15/t on-farm, depending on the grade. Across Europe, Yara’s CAN pricing has moved to €317/t bulk CIF, marking a €12/t increase since mid-October.
• These increases, coupled with persistent production cost pressures, have amplified concerns over tightening AN availability into January. With UK buyers still significantly under covered, the market remains particularly vulnerable to further supply disruptions and upward price adjustments in the weeks ahead.

Urea

• The global urea market has seen a notable resurgence in price support following India’s NFL tender announcement for 1.5 Mt of granular or prilled urea. The tender, closing on 19 December, specifies delivery of 1 Mt to West Coast India and 500,000 t to East Coast India. This anticipated tender has already injected bullish sentiment into global markets, with FOB prices rising $8 W-on-W for Black Sea and Middle Eastern trades since 4 December.
• Egyptian FOB prices have witnessed a significant rally. On Friday, 6 December, Abu Qir sold granular urea at $371/t FOB for January loading to Europe. This was followed by Mopco securing a similar sale of 5,000 t at $371/t FOB on Monday. Yesterday, Mopco achieved a further increase, selling 10,000 t of granular urea at $390/t FOB for January loading—marking a stark recovery from the mid-November lows, when product traded in the $350/t range.
• China remains absent from the Indian tender due to its indefinite suspension of new export inspection applications since 7 June 2024. This policy continues to constrain global supply flexibility, exacerbating upward price momentum driven by India’s demand.
• In the UK, the urea market reflects the disruption seen in ammonium nitrate, with widespread withdrawal from the market since the 6th of December. The newly gradually re-issued UK prices now align more closely with rising global benchmarks, mirroring the sharp upward movement seen in Egypt. The recent rally in global FOB values, compounded by import replacement costs, has left little room for downward pressure in the domestic market.
• The British pound has strengthened marginally, recovering from its late November low of £1.25 against the US dollar to high £1.26 levels. With a rate cut now looking unlikely a more valuable pound would provide marginal relief for UK importers however at the moment it is doing little to offset the sharp price increases driven by the Indian tender and broader global market movement.
• Domestically, China’s inland urea prices remain weak, weighed by heavy producer inventories and soft inland demand. This oversupply, alongside restricted export activity, contrasts sharply with the bullish international sentiment.
• Looking forward, global urea prices are expected to remain well-supported as Indian demand continues to fuel momentum. However, gains could be constrained following Q1 2025 by a generally healthy global supply outlook, barring any unexpected production or logistical disruptions.

Potash

• Global potash prices outside China remain broadly stable this week, although sentiment in Brazil is notably bullish, with expectations of further strengthening in the coming weeks. Brazil’s potash price held steady following two consecutive weeks of gains, supported by robust import activity. January-November MOP imports have reached 13.2 Mt, up 7% year-on-year, setting the stage for record-breaking volumes in 2023. However, some market players warn that high stock turnover could dampen demand in Q1 2025.
• Northwest Europe saw prices fall by €10/t this week, with granular MOP now averaging €330/t CIF and standard MOP at €310/t CIF. The decline reflects persistently slow demand, although recent weeks have exhibited signs of price stability, leading some market players to suggest that further downside could be limited.
• At the recent FAI conference, speculation emerged regarding China’s 180-day potash contract price. Market sentiment indicates a likely $10-15/t CFR increase, reflecting broader bullish expectations across global markets as we head into Q1 2025.

Phosphates

• Global phosphate markets remain largely steady, with spot prices showing little movement over the past few weeks, though some benchmarks continued to decline. US NOLA TSP prices recorded further weakness, reflecting subdued demand and affordability constraints. Additional sales to India remain challenging, with downstream buyers resisting higher offers due to ongoing margin pressures.
• The primary focus is on China, where export inspections and customs clearance for DAP and MAP are reportedly suspended until at least 31^st December, according to most market sources. While specific details remain unclear, uncertainty surrounds the restrictions expected for Q1 2025. A major MAP producer in Hubei province has sought customs clearance with no response yet, underscoring the lack of clarity in the near-term outlook.
• Spot market activity globally remains limited as off-season demand in key markets, combined with poor affordability, continues to cap buyer interest. Sellers, however, are pushing back against downward price pressure, supported by tight availability across several origins.
• In the UK, phosphate demand is expected to see seasonal support as we move into Q1 2025. While this may provide a modest uplift, no significant or aggressive price movement is anticipated in the immediate term.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept, and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.