Market reports

Wheat

• Chicago wheat prices rose by $6.52 per tonne this week due to weather concerns. Colder conditions are expected in the U.S. plains and Black Sea regions, while ongoing dryness in Argentina is also providing support. Some areas may face crop damage from winterkill, but where snow cover is sufficient, crops should be protected.
• In Europe, wheat prices dropped by €2.25 per tonne as slow exports and potential stock buildup weighed on the market. The price gap between old and new crops is widening. EU wheat exports reached 13.33 million tonnes as of February 16, down 36% from last year. However, 73% of France’s wheat crop is rated good or very good, an improvement from 68% last year.
• Talks continue over a possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, but progress remains difficult, as both sides need to make significant concessions.
• UK wheat prices fell by £3.00 per tonne, following Europe’s weaker trend. The price gap between old and new crops has widened, which contradicts supply expectations—Britain needs to be more competitive in exports instead of relying on imports. While farmers may welcome the higher carry, the market suggests that current new crop prices could be a good selling opportunity before they adjust to improve export competitiveness.
  
  

Market Outlook

Farmers may welcome the widening price gap. However, current new crop prices could be a good selling opportunity before prices adjust to stay competitive in exports.

Malting Barley

• Prices for old crop malting barley are starting to show some support, but demand remains slow. With a large carryover into the new crop and strong feed prices, old crop malting barley is unlikely to drop much further.
• The new crop market is still mostly inactive, but premium prices are looking stronger, exceeding £40/mt in some areas. The key focus now is the spring planting season, which will determine future premiums. There’s currently no concern, as there is still plenty of time for planting.

Feed Barley

• Feed barley prices remain strong due to steady export demand. Supplies from competing regions are tightening, making the UK competitive for exports to North Africa and the Middle East.
• Domestically, barley remains attractively priced compared to other feed grains, which should keep prices stable for the rest of the season unless there is a major market shift.
• Weather conditions are improving, with warm, dry weather expected, which is favourable for spring planting. However, new crop feed barley prices are under pressure as it becomes less competitive in both domestic and export markets.

Rapeseed

It’s been a mixed week for agricultural markets, with some positivity in oilseeds. U.S. and Canadian markets were closed on Monday for public holidays.

Soybean Complex

• South American weather has improved, with beneficial rains in Argentina’s previously dry southern regions.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest is now 25% complete. AgroConsult lowered Brazil’s crop estimate to 171.3 million tonnes (down from 172.4 million last month), while LSEG raised Argentina’s forecast to 50.2 million tonnes (up 1%).
• Brazil announced that its biodiesel mandate will remain at 14%, despite expectations for an increase to 15%.
• Soyoil found support after NOPA reported a January crush figure of 200.4 million bushels—lower than December’s 206.6 million but still the second-highest for January. Soyoil stocks came in lower than expected despite reaching a six-month high.
  
  

Crude Oil

• Prices have remained stable, with attention on U.S.-Russia talks about Ukraine. However, discussions are expected to take time and require multiple meetings.
• An EIA report highlighted that emerging economies will drive 85% of global demand growth, with China accounting for over half of this at a 6% year-on-year growth rate.
• Saudi crude exports fell by 1% in December to 6.146 million barrels per day, down from 6.206 million in November.
  
  

Canola & Rapeseed

• Canola prices have stalled around $665 on the March contract, facing resistance. However, momentum remains positive, with more cargoes heading to China, causing the MATIF/Canola spread to narrow. Crush margins have weakened slightly, but there is still some buyer interest.
• MATIF rapeseed prices were strong until Wednesday, when they hit resistance at €535. Support is at €525, keeping prices in a narrow range.
• In the UK, farmers’ price targets are within reach if resistance is broken. If prices push higher, the next key level would be the crop year high of €544.

Oats

Despite slightly warmer temperatures in parts of Europe, oat markets remain sluggish with minimal trade activity.

EU Market

• Trade activity is minimal, but farmer selling has increased in Scandinavia since Finland announced it would release 30% of its state reserves. Buyers are well stocked and hoping for lower prices as more supply enters the market.
  
  

North America

• The possibility of U.S. import tariffs is affecting oat trade. Some believe Scandinavian oats could be shipped to the U.S., which would shift the EU supply balance and impact market sentiment. However, potential EU tariffs are also a concern, making sellers reluctant to offer oats without tariff protection clauses, which buyers are unwilling to accept. This has left the market at a standstill.
  
  

Feed Oats

• Being offered from Finland and the Baltics, but demand is weak. Some sales have been made to Holland, but in small volumes.
  
  

UK Market

• Milling oat demand is very low, with major millers covered until mid-to-late Q2. New crop trade is quiet as both farmers and buyers wait for more clarity on production.
  
  

Exports

• The UK has shipped 20.5kmt to the EU so far, aiming for the 50kmt target set by AHDB.
  
  

Market Outlook

The oat market is at a tipping point—if the US absorbs some of Scandinavia’s surplus, prices may hold. If not, excess supply from Finland and the UK could drive prices down further.

Pulses

It’s been a quiet week for pulse markets, with little interest in peas or beans, partly due to the UK Half Term break.

UK Beans

• Demand remains slow, with feed beans about £20/MT too expensive to be competitive in rations, making it hard to find buyers. However, there is still some baseline demand keeping prices stable for now.
  
  

New Crop Beans

• There hasn’t been much discussion yet, and current price levels may struggle to fit into feed rations. However, it’s still early, with spring planting yet to begin.
  
  

Spring Drilling

• With planting just days away, farmers should consider marketing and input options. The POOL is still open, along with various buy-back contracts. Now is also a good time to focus on P&K applications to support crop establishment, maximise yield, and improve gross margins.
  
  

New Crop Peas

• Demand continues to grow, with buyers looking to secure supply. Pea buy-back contracts remain an attractive option for those planning spring crops. For the latest buy-back offers, speak to your ADM Agriculture Farm Trader.
  
  

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Seed

Spring drilling is underway, with high demand for seed deliveries from farms.

Barley

• Stocks available for Laureate, RGT Planet, CB Score, Belter & RGT Astroid, along with attractive buy-back contracts from the malting barley team
  
  

Wheat

• Limited availability of KWS Ladam & KWS Alicium spring wheat varieties.
  
  

Pulses

• Spring beans and peas are in high demand, with limited stock available for drilling and a few remaining buy-back contracts.
  
  

Maize

• Strong interest in maize seed, and orders are picking up. A wide range of options is available.
  
  

Small Seeds

• Sales remain strong, with various mixtures and straight seeds available.
  
  

Our Spring and Maize catalogues are now available, browse our varieties here.

Contact your Farm Trader for more details or call our friendly team on 01427 421200.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures remain volatile, trading around €47 per megawatt-hour.
• Storage levels are 43% full, well below the 90% target by November.
• Germany, France, and Italy have proposed easing storage mandates to reduce pressure.
• Warmer weather and steady LNG imports have helped, but supply remains tight with no major new LNG infrastructure until 2026.
• Ongoing uncertainty over Russian gas flows adds to market instability.
  
  

Ammonia

• Prices in the Middle East and Asia are expected to fall further due to ample supply.
• Western markets will also see price declines but at a slower pace.
  
  

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• European AN prices rose again, with Yara increasing April offers on Feb 17th.
• Despite higher prices, demand is slow due to poor weather delaying applications.
• Prices are expected to rise further as peak buying season (late Feb–early March) approaches.
  
  

Urea

• Global prices remain firm, driven by speculation over India’s potential market return.
• The Middle East holds steady at $445/t FOB, while US NOLA dipped slightly to $380/st FOB due to trader caution.
• In the UK, prices have stayed flat due to a stronger GBP/USD exchange rate, which has helped lower import costs.
• Supply constraints could worsen in spring, reinforcing a bullish market outlook.
  
  

Potash (MOP)

• Market sentiment remains bullish, though price increases have slowed.
• China saw a significant price surge due to higher demand and limited supply.
• Northwest Europe remains uncertain, with producers offering high prices despite slowing demand.
• UK prices have risen slightly, but demand remains strong.
  
  

Phosphates

• Prices remain historically high due to China’s export restrictions, leading to tight global supply.
• Demand is weak due to poor affordability, but low inventories suggest recovery is needed.
• China may relax export controls in mid-2025, but strong demand will likely keep prices high.
• UK prices remain flat as buyers wait for clearer market signals.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.