Market reports

Wheat

September ’25 MATIF hit 4-month lows this week but struggled to break the €220/mt support level, suggesting a possible short term ‘double bottom’ technical rebound as we enter a period of seasonally bullish moves. However, these are typically driven by weather markets, which aren’t as pronounced as usual, and with an overarching bearish sentiment, will prices continue to flounder around these levels?

Key Factors

• All eyes are on US Spring Wheat planting, with concerns that early rainfall could hamper progress. This is combined with the juxtaposition that North American soil moistures remain at a 6 year lows, so with planting-slowing, rainfall is required. Expectations are for a 700k acre increase in the US Wheat area, as well as an almost 4m acres increase in the corn area at 94.3m acres, all to the detriment of soybeans, which are forecast to drop by 3.3m ac.
• European markets continue to feel like they have a cap on them, with EU wheat yields projected to see an 8% year on year increased for CY25. Low liquidity, especially in the UK with a lack of farmer selling, sees the market continue to grind lower, especially on the old crop, as the May/Nov spread on ICE London Feed Wheat Futures remains broad in the £18-£20 range. The strong GBP continues to weigh on our domestic futures, whilst consistent positive crop ratings in the EU offer little support to MATIF values.
• To add to the bearish sentiment, IKAR has raised its Russian domestic wheat production estimate 1.5mmt to 82.5mmt. An easing of the drying conditions across Southern Russia and Ukraine further supports this, with crop worries dissipating slightly. This is against a backdrop of growing tensions though following the questioning of the head of Russia’s largest ag company, RusAgro. It remains to be seen what will evolve from here, but uncertainty in the market is growing, with anticipated peace talks between Russia & Ukraine unlikely to be a smooth transition.
• Next Wednesday 2nd April is starting to loom large, the US-Canada-Mexico tariff deadline. There is growing speculation that the tariffs will be more lenient than the rhetoric has previously suggested, however, politically at least, there is a long time between now and next Wednesday.
• Finally, in South America, we see a mixed bag – in Brazil, soybean estimates are being cut due to drought conditions, with concerns around what this means for the subsequent Safrinha second crop corn, whilst in Argentina the corn harvest is progressing well under broadly favourable conditions.
  
  

Outlook
The grain market remains bearish, driven by Russia/Ukraine peace talks easing Black Sea supply concerns, larger-than-expected US wheat and corn acres, and improved weather in key growing regions. MATIF found support, but London Wheat continues to drift lower despite slow farmer selling which is keeping domestic basis inflated. Seasonal trends suggest potential price recovery from late March to May, but fundamentals lean bearish unless weather issues emerge. Eyes remain on 2nd April tariffs and US planting conditions for future direction.

Malting Barley

Malting markets remain extremely slow. Old crop is finished from a demand perspective, today at least, meanwhile new crop feels weak as the English spring crop gets planted without issue.

Key Factors

• Old crop malting markets are once again with activity, and nominally malting barley is not worth much more than feed. With a decent carry into new crop, commercials are looking to carry over into next season with the current absence of spot demand.
• Plantings in England and France are now finished, with Scotland making good progress comparatively early in the season to the norm.
• Demand concerns continue to weigh on the industry, and new crop values are falling as a result with no sign of a supply issue to discuss.
  
  

Outlook
Further action in the old crop market is not expected and we expect all activity will remain focussed on the new season. It is likely that premiums will feel further pressure on the lack of any supply concern and slow demand, as always for the time of year the market will be intently watching crop progress in order to predict future direction.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets once again finding support on slow farmer selling, although liquidity remains extremely thin.

Key Factors

• The weaker tone in futures over the last week has widened the bid-offer spread in an already thin market. Export demand still remains underlying, but buying ideas in Ireland are some €7 away from UK replacement levels, and sellers remain stuck to their ideas as farmers continue to withhold stocks from the market.
• Domestically, first hand demand remains thin on good nearby coverage, although on paper barley is competitive heading into the summer run, which should support demand. Good weather conditions however are hampering feed demand.
• New crop markets are slow, and once again sellers are hunting for demand with little joy as barley looks much less competitive next season.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop values should stay supported, but unless we see a major reversal in futures driven by a macro story, we do not expect significant upside. New crop once again has to scavenge for demand, and prices as a result should continue to see pressure.

Rapeseed

Agricultural markets saw mixed movements this week, with soybean prices under pressure due to trade uncertainties and slow farmer selling. The U.S. Dollar strengthened, while crude oil prices edged up, offering support to vegetable oils. Favourable weather conditions in South America helped late developing Argentine crops, but has slowed harvest progress. Meanwhile, canola and MATIF rapeseed prices showed a recovery from recent lows, with MATIF outpacing canola to the upside making Canadian imports look good.

Key Factors 

• Soybean prices were mostly lower throughout the week. While U.S. soybean exports showed some strength, overall demand concerns, especially due to tariff deadlines and trade negotiations.
• Farmer selling was slow, and the outlook for next season’s planted area could be affected by these demand uncertainties.
• Crude oil was generally range-bound but saw some upward movement, particularly after President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Venezuelan oil, which may have implications for global oil flows. Higher crude prices offered support for vegetable oils.
• Argentina continued to see favourable weather, helping crop development. The USDA may adjust Argentina’s soybean production forecast in their next report with some area expected to be leaked into corn.
• Brazil’s harvest was progressing rapidly, with 77% of the crop harvested as of March 25, and estimates for Brazilian soybean production remain between 165-168 million metric tons.
• U.S.-China trade talks remained a key focus, with the U.S. planning to meet with Chinese officials in late March. The outcome of these negotiations, particularly concerning tariffs and soybean purchases, could affect market sentiment.
• China’s soybean auctions started, which could limit demand for new crop Brazilian beans and create potential gaps for the market to fill.
• Canola prices rose, with the MATIF rapeseed contract showing some strength as well, especially towards the end of the week. However, there were challenges with China’s tariffs on canola products, meaning that the MATIF/canola spread has come back to highs, we are seeing canola trade into the EU.
• MATIF rapeseed prices closed higher, testing the €500 level again. The market showed potential for further upward momentum if key resistance levels could be broken.
  
  

Outlook
Last week, soybean markets faced pressure from tariff concerns and slow farmer selling. The U.S. Dollar strengthened, while crude oil prices edged up, supporting vegetable oils. South American weather remained favourable, aiding crop development. U.S.-China trade talks continued to loom large over soybean demand. Rapeseed prices have shown a strong recovery but now face some key resistance levels if they want to continue further. The return of a €35+ inverse has helped old crop UK prices reach a good level for those who have anything left to commit.

Oats

European oat markets need fresh news to get things going.

Key Factors

• US tariffs on Canadian goods continues to be something that could generate significant support for EU milling markets, however given the continued extensions and the threat of tariffs on EU goods this positive impact is yet to be felt.
• EU millers remain well covered for old crop positions with sellers fixing existing frame agreements appearing to be the only trade taking place.
• Ideal drilling conditions in Scandinavia is helping promote prospects of a good harvest, however things are only just getting started therefore another few weeks will confirm the true potential.
• Some feed oat cargoes have traded over the last week but sellers are now proving harder to come by. Destination is expected to be into the Dutch market with supplies coming from both the Baltics and Scandinavia.
• Spain remains out of the market with good cover through until July largely reported, however some old crop could be required prior to the arrival of new crop.
• Here in the UK all English spring oats are expected to be drilled, which sets up good prospects for quality and yields. However the weather over the next 4-5 months will ultimately determine the crops fate.
• Old crop oats remain largely untradable in the spot positions with buyers firmly out of the market. There is potential for some Jun/Jul demand, however buyers will unlikely cover this until they have made the sales.
  
  

Outlook

Markets are relying on a weather issue or confirmation of a change in trade flows from the EU into the US in order to see a price spike. If this doesn’t happen then oat prices could be flat to weak.

Pulses

Old Crop pricing is MoL unchanged on the week, whilst New Crop values are showing signs of coming under pressure, partly through a weakening London Wheat value, and partly through premiums starting to show signs of coming under pressure with an expectation of a larger Spring area.

Key Factors

• A turbulent week for GBP, which has seen values against the USD trade in excess of a 1 cent range! With Ramadan coming to an end on Sunday, immediately followed by the Eid celebration, we could see a last minute return by the Egyptians, although Human Consumption demand is limited. With GBP/USD back from its highs of 1.30, we could see a last flurry of exports.
• CY25’s stellar Spring Drilling window continues, with the coming week again looking relatively dry with slightly above average temperatures in the forecast. Conditions are certainly lining up to be supportive towards strong establishment, which invariably leads to strong crops and yields.
• With the prospect of a larger New Crop production figure on pulses, now more than ever, you should be speaking to your Farm Trading representative around what marketing options are available to you. Pulses often suffer from a lack of consistent, reliable information at the best of times, so it is well worth speaking to your Farm Trader who can explain the raft of marketing options we have available to help you navigate these opaque markets, including both Pool and futures-related contracts to help you maximise returns from what can be a challenging crop to market effectively.
• New Crop premiums are still firm. However, each day brings more reports of further drilling, suggesting that they are likely to start softening – probably in the next 3-4 weeks as emergence starts to take hold and there is more positivity towards the crop outlook. Beans are still £35-40/mt too expensive compared to imported feedstuffs on the New Crop positions, although if premiums come under pressure, expect this to narrow in the coming weeks.
• Old crop pea market remains subdued. New crop plantings have now started with crops going into ideal seed beds. We just need the weather to stay favourable going forward.  Buy-back contracts are now all complete with buyers now looking to take early new crop cover.  
  
  

Outlook
As with the last few weeks, new crop pulse values especially remain volatile, with ever changing demand profiles. With near ideal Spring Drilling conditions at the moment, it is likely we will see some growth in the pulse area versus expectations, and so growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support.

Seed

Continued dry weather across the UK has allowed crop drillings to enter its final stages with the even more difficult land becoming available. Feedback would indicate that seed beds are breaking down to near perfect condition giving the crop an ideal start to the growing season.

Key Factors

• We have limited amounts of spring barley left to offer for reasonably quick delivery to most areas including Laureate & RGT Planet
• Spring wheat is becoming more difficult to offer as stocks across the UK become close to a sold out position
• On the Maize front, enquiries continue for both forage & game cover to which we are pleased to offer a very comprehensive portfolio of the UK’s leading varieties to suit your requirements
• Grass mixtures both agricultural and amenity are starting to gather pace to which we would be delighted to discuss your individual requirements small or large
• Small seeds, we have a very competitive range on offer from standard mixes to bespoke requirements
  
  

Outlook
We are delighted to announce that the new and very exciting KWS Vibe winter wheat has now achieved its full UKFM group 1 classification which brings an added interest to the group 1 sector.

For more information about our Seed varieties information 2025, browse our catalogues.

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Mild Weather Caps Gains Despite Storage Concerns

Key Factors
• European futures hover near €41/MWh as mild temperatures reduce heating demand.
• EU gas storage levels remain under 34%, sustaining longer-term supply risks.
• US gas rebounds toward $3.9/MMBtu after Freeport LNG resumes operations post-lightning strike.
• LNG exports from the US average 15.7 bcfd in March, a new record.
• Forecasts of above-normal US temperatures into early April signal reduced domestic demand.

Outlook
Despite geopolitical headlines and brief export disruptions, the balance of mild weather and strong LNG flows is capping gas price upside. Attention remains on storage refill trajectories and shifting geopolitical agreements.

Ammonia
Bearish Outlook Deepens as US Capacity Comes Online and European Producer Halts Output

Key Factors
• Market sentiment remains bearish amid persistently weak demand and oversupply east of Suez.
• First exports from the 1.3 Mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia facility in the US Gulf are expected imminently.
• FOB prices east of Suez face downward pressure, prompting questions about potential production cuts.
• A key European producer will halt ammonia production at its Jonava, Lithuania plant from 15 May due to volatile gas costs and import pressures.
• Restart at Jonava not expected until Q3 2025, further tightening European supply in the medium term.

Outlook
Ammonia prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term, especially east of Suez. However, tightening European supply and potential output cuts in Asia could support values by mid-year if oversupply conditions ease.

Nitrates

Key Factors
• Nitrates demand has slowed as buyers await stability in urea before committing to new purchases.
• Domestic UK prices remain firm due to ongoing supply constraints and limited import availability.

Outlook
With uncertainty surrounding urea pricing, nitrates markets are expected to remain cautious, with limited near-term upside. However, UK AN prices continue to hold firm due to tight supply, meaning domestic values could remain supported even as global trends soften

Urea
India: IPL issues import tender for 1.5 Mt

Key Factors
• India’s long-anticipated tender was officially floated by Indian Potash Limited (IPL) for 1.5 Mt of granular/prilled urea, closing 8 April.
• The tender seeks 800,000 t for West Coast India and 700,000 t for the East Coast, with shipment required by 12 June.
• Early reactions have triggered a modest bounce in the US NOLA market, with April barge trades climbing from lows of $355/st to $370/st FOB.
• Despite this, global sentiment remains cautious as the tender has not yet translated into broad-based market support.
• In the UK, domestic prices remain flat for a fifth consecutive week, with constrained supply continuing to underpin values despite broader global softness.

Outlook
The IPL tender may prove to be a critical turning point, particularly if it overlaps with US and other key demand windows. However, its impact is still unfolding. UK market conditions remain defined by local tightness, with limited appetite to import at prevailing retail discounts, insulating domestic values for now.

Potash
Q2 Demand Recovery and Tightness Signal Upward Price Trajectory.

Key Factors
• Southeast Asia expected to see potash price increases as Q2 demand recovers post-Eid.
• Pupuk Indonesia is reportedly preparing to launch its key annual tender, which may absorb significant regional tonnage.
• Contract negotiations in northwest Europe are underway, with expectations of Q2 price increases.
• Global supply remains tight, especially for prompt shipments.
• UK market remains firm.

Outlook
Q2 is likely to see a firmer pricing structure emerge globally as demand accelerates and major tenders begin to absorb available tonnes. UK buyers may face higher replacement costs in the coming weeks as global benchmarks push upward.

Phosphates
Bullish Momentum Intensifies Amid Tight Supply and Delayed Chinese Exports.

Key Factors
• DAP/MAP markets have turned strongly bullish, driven by tightening global supply and low inventory levels.
• Indian Phosphate supplied which have remained critically low are finally having some demand met with Indian National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) has floating a new tender for 100,000 t of DAP, split into two shipments, closing 11 April.
• Market expectations now suggest China will delay re-entering the export market until at least May.
• Sellers are already offering forward tonnes at premiums well above current levels.
• Ethiopia’s latest purchase tender, set to close this week, is expected to absorb further market availability, adding to near-term tightness.

Outlook
With China’s absence extended and Indian demand mounting, phosphate prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term. Forward pricing activity suggests confidence in continued bullish momentum. UK phosphate values, though relatively stable, may come under upward pressure in the coming weeks if tightness persists and global benchmarks continue to climb.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1988	1.2875	1.0737

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.