US prices are marginally lower on the week – winter wheat harvest reported as being 82% complete, with the spring wheat harvest commencing, reported as 2% complete – exports, although slowing, are still running 25% ahead y/y.
US president Donald Trump vowed to protect American farmers against China by signalling to provide further aid if needed, a day after China stopped agricultural purchases from the US and threatened more tariffs on US farm products.
Paris wheat futures fell to a new 2 ½ month low as the market continues to focus on the impact of Europe’s large wheat harvest, breaking through several support levels.
Russian farmers have harvested 55.8mln t of grain from 35% of the total planted area, with an average yield of 3.43t/ha, data from the Ag Ministry showed – last year farmers had harvested 46.6mln t with an average yield of 3.48t/ha.
UkrAgroConsult have lowered their 2019 Russian wheat production estimate to 74.5-75.0mln t, from 76.7mln t previously, although they raised their forecast for the Ukraine, from 28mln t to a record 28.5mln t.
Ukrainian farmers have almost completed the 2019 wheat harvest, threshing 25.8mln t from 93% of the sown area, the Ag Ministry reported.
France’s farm ministry this week increased its estimate of the country’s 2019 soft wheat harvest to 38.2mln t, up from 37mln t projected a month earlier.
Egypt’s GASC purchased 415,000t of wheat for 5-15 September shipment, which included 240,00t of Russian, 115,000t of Ukrainian and 60,000t of Romanian – no US or French wheat was offered.
UK new crop prices have eased, down £4/t on the week following lower European prices, with some export trade being reported at the lower numbers.
In summary, markets continue to weaken as the impact of bumper harvests, and limited demand, weighs. US prices have consolidated this week ahead of the key USDA report due out next Monday.
While the report is unlikely to provide any fireworks to an apparently stagnant wheat market, it will be the corn and soya numbers that the trade will focus on and may provide some ‘spill-over’ support onto the wheat complex.
Expected cuts in corn acreage, should tighten the US balance sheet although, the stall in US/China trade talks may dampen the USDA’s export optimism for both 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, reducing the impact of the lower acreage.
It will be a report of, what numbers do the trade expect, what numbers do the USDA project, and whether the trade believes the numbers!