Market Report

Friday 11 October 2019

Wheat

  • US wheat prices are up about $2/t on the week, although a bearish US corn supply and demand report last night pulled wheat prices lower, with US wheat stocks also seen rising as the export projection was trimmed.
  • Canadian spring wheat and canola harvests continued to be delayed, as wetter and colder weather keeps fieldwork to a minimum.
  • The Russian agriculture minister reported that the country expects its 2019 grain crop to total 120mln t, with a wheat crop of 78mln t. The ministry sees grain exports of 45mln t, including 36mln t of wheat, in the 2019/20 marketing season.
  • Ukrainian farmers had harvested 49.3mln t of grain a/o Oct 4th with the ministry expecting the total 2019 grain crop to be in line with last year’s level of about 71mln.
  • Egypt purchased 180,000t of Russian and 115,000t of Ukrainian wheat in its latest tender, although prices paid were slightly higher than its previous tender due to firmer global prices.
  • France’s ministry has raised its estimate of the country’s 2019 soft wheat harvest to 39.7mln t, up from 39.45mln t previously, confirming one of its largest-ever wheat crops.
  • EU (French) Matif wheat prices are up €3/t on the week, although off the two-month highs seen earlier this week, as the market dipped following yesterday’s USDA data release.
  • The UK’s wheat harvest for 2019 is provisionally seen at 16.28mln t, up 20% y/y, the farm ministry reported.
  • UK wheat exports for the first two months of the 2019/20 marketing season were reported at 151,012t, three times the volume of a year earlier, with imports down almost 60% y/y at 223,293t.
  • UK prices are marginally lower w/w, as a firmer currency emanating from positive vibes about a possible ‘deal’ over the Irish border dispute.
  • Yesterday’s USDA report also confirmed that there is no shortage of wheat supply, as both US and global stocks were raised, although global corn stocks were lowered mainly due to the expected fall in US supplies.
  • However, the US corn numbers came as a bit of a surprise to the market, as a slight lowering of the planted and harvested area was negated by a rise in the yield projection, despite all the current debate over lateness of the crop and the weather.
  • As we have said, wheat fundamentals on their own don’t have a bullish story and needed help from a bullish corn story. It didn’t happen yesterday and therefore ran into selling pressure as the corn market traded lower.

Malting Barley

  • Defra has announced the biggest barley crop in around 30 years, with a 2mln t surplus.
  • Our estimate is that we have a 750,000t malting barley surplus that currently does not have an export home.
  • Domestic buyers have been in the market this week, mainly for January to June 2020 deliveries. Prices remain unchanged on the week.
  • Premiums are very low, but we would advise growers to sell at least 50% of any unsold barley if the quality is sound and a market becomes available. Growers should also look at marketing some of next year’s malting barley.
  • The very wet conditions look likely to produce another big spring barley area. Demand is likely to be less, as we currently have no export to sell into and domestic customers will carryover more of this crop than normal.
  • The ADM Agriculture 2020 pool is open, and we have various other contracts available. Contact the team now to discuss your requirements.

Rapeseed

  • Last night’s USDA report viewed as positive for soybeans. The US soybean yield was cut from 47.9 bushels per acre last month to 46.9 this month slightly below the average trade estimate.
  • 2019/20 ending stocks were cut to 460 million bushels from 640 last month and below the average trade estimate of 496 at 460 mill bu. Stocks are still ample, but the stocks to use ratio has fallen from 15.9% to 11.4%.
  • The USDA left South American 2020 soybean production estimates unchanged. Brazil 123mln t v 117 last year. Argentina 55.3mln t v 53 last year.
  • Rain and snow continues to delay the Canadian canola harvest.
  • In Australia, dry weather and high temps have led to further reductions to canola crop forecasts with some traders now predicting 2.0-2.1mln t.
  • Having failed to break the previous high, we saw a wave of technical selling on the Matif in the last couple of days as funds reduce their positions.
  • Fundamentally nothing has changed on the EU rapeseed market with supplies looking tight in the new year.
  • UK rapeseed prices suffered the double whammy of weaker Matif and stronger sterling causing prices to fall sharply at the end of the week.

Oats

  • Defra released its provisional farm statistics yesterday, looking at the 2019 crop hectarage and yield. On oats the area had increase by 6.1% vs harvest 2018/19, and the yield up by 19.9% year on year. This has pegged a production increase of 27.2% to 1.1mln t. This figure is roughly in line with trade estimates and coupled with the AHDB supply and demand figures for harvest 2018/19 and an end of season stock of 116,000t, this puts the 2019/20 Availability at +1.2mln t.
  • With a total domestic consumption figure of circa 850,000 t the outlook for price movement in this marketing year remains a bearish one, especially without any further news on our export situation post Halloween.

Pulses

Beans

  • The market is relatively unchanged as both feed and human consumption programs by shippers have started.
  • We may see a short-term squeeze in the delivered marketplace as physical bean deliveries are a struggle as haulage is limited. Please bring any availability to the trading team.
  • Quality still remains relatively poor overall and the end markets show no willingness to relax their specifications.

Peas

  • Market relatively quiet as farmers are concentrating on drilling.
  • We can buy open market samples of a whole range of qualities; good or bad – please send us your samples.
  • Buybacks for 2020 available which are non-defaultable.

Fertiliser

  • Granular urea is currently flat-firm, with the lows seen at $250-255/t FOB Egypt, although trades for October/November shipment have now been concluded at the end of this week at $255-257/t.
  • Prices FOB Egypt have been supported by the India tender on Monday, which is for an estimated 1mln t, as well as an increase in European buying this week. Speak to your ADM Agriculture farm trader today, who now have granular urea terms for October, November and December delivery.
  • UK ammonium nitrate producer, CF, are currently offering November terms at a premium to October, with October terms likely to be pulled soon as volume is almost hit for the month.
  • ALZON® neo-N, the dual inhibited urea, is available from ADM Agriculture. Growers looking to reduce their ammonia emissions and ensure their crops nitrogen supply in unpredictable weather, should look to use the market leading product by SKW Piesteritz.
  • The currency rate is still dictating most imported fertiliser prices as markets have continued to remain relatively flat. Most recent GBP currency moves have been dominated by UK/EU Brexit negotiations.
  • Due to continued uncertainty and potential tariffs, risk mitigation is to be considered. Those who have not taken some cover for their nitrogen requirements, should speak to their ADM Agriculture farm trader today on what terms we have available to suit their storage situation.

£/€ £/$ €/$
1.1385 1.2565 1.1035
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Nov19 117-121 128-136 175-185 328-333
May20 123-127 134-142 181-191 334-339
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

Latest Tweets

Follow Us

Get updates

Registered Office:
5 Hercules Way, Leavesden Park,
Watford WD25 7GS.

Company Number: 904957