Market Report

Friday 7 June 2019

ADM Agriculture Ltd will be at Cereals on 12th & 13th June – visit us on stand 271 where we are offering an exclusive insight into ADM’s enhanced capabilities.

The next market report is on Thursday 20th June 2019.

Wheat

  • Old crop values continue to decline as homes are filled for June and July. Soybeans trade off recent highs on the back of improved US weather forecasts.
  • New crop prices have eased over the past week – farmers and consumers are mostly sitting on the side-lines awaiting either demand or another market-moving event.
  • US Corn plantings remain slow although better, drier weather is forecast and some element of catching up is expected – albeit much later than normal.
  • EU crops continue to look promising with a balance of rain and sunshine suiting most areas.
  • International markets are quiet but North African demand could resurface as Ramadan comes to an end.

Malting Barley

  • The EU and UK malting barley markets have not been following the feed wheat market due to the fact that there seems to be a large surplus heading our way.
  • Recent rains have helped winter and spring malting barley development and the market has had a more bearish feel to it over the last few days.

Rapeseed

  • CBOT soybeans trade off recent highs on the back of improved US weather forecasts. Drier weather across the western corn belt this week with better conditions across the eastern corn belt over the weekend.
  • This week the USDA confirmed soybean plantings are still the second slowest on record, estimating 39% complete (86% last year, 79% average).
  • Informa lowered its estimated soybean planted area for May to 85 mln acres (previously 86.4 mln acres) vs. the USDA’s 84.6 mln acres in March.
  • State owned Chinese businesses continue buying Brazilian origin soybeans and not bidding on US supplies. It’s now expected, but not confirmed that up to 1-2mmt of US old crop purchases will be rolled into new crop.
  • In South America, BAGE reports the Argentinian harvest is now complete with some losses in the northeast of the country due to excessive rainfall.
  • Canadian canola plantings are widely complete. Cold/dry conditions in Canada are starting to cause some concerns for the 19/20 crop with crops in northern and central areas of Saskatchewan are desperate for rain.
  • In Australia rain now appears in the forecast. Soil moistures in most areas are behind previous years, but any rain should help the recently planted canola crop germinate. Trade estimates for the 19/20 crop range between 2.48-2.9mmt.
  • Closer to home, European prices track US markets lower. This week Strategie Grains reduced its 2019/20 EU rapeseed crop to 17.8 mln t from 18.85 mln t a month ago, also increasing its EU rapeseed import estimate to 5.4mmln t (5.1mmt last month).

Seed

Countdown to Cereals week – lots of trials events and open days going on…

  • Highlights are KWS Extase/KWS Firefly, RGT Saki and Theodore for cleanliness.
  • Disease in untreated plots varies across the country, but there are some interesting differences in disease scores to visual assessment particularly yellow rust and brown rust.
  • Septoria resistance must be a major decision factor for autumn planting.
  • High yielding feed wheats LG Skyscraper/RGT Gravity and Gleam from Syngenta all look full of yield potential. LG Skyscraper will be in limited supply so anybody looking to cover this should look at it sooner rather than later.
  • SY Baracooda – an exciting new hybrid barley variety for this autumn planting – huge yield potential.
  • Vibrance Duo should feature heavily in decision making as a seed treatment along with other growth stimulating seed treatments including Turbo.
  • Wide range of exciting OSR varieties including many with breeder backed establishment schemes are available including the HOLL variety V316OL – along with a market leading buyback contract.

Fertiliser

  • The international urea market has been relatively quiet this week, but pricing is stable to firm with producers continuing to push numbers higher in anticipation of more July interest.
  • Availability for July is tight, as plants have planned turnarounds. With Latin America business still to conclude, the market is showing no signs of weakness at present.
  • In the UK market, little to no business has been done for new season, as a firm market and a weakened currency is helping to keep interest at a low.
  • Working on replacement values in Egypt today, the on-farm UK price for granular urea is fast approaching £275/t, so the feeling is that buyers of urea will sit tight today and focus on ammonium nitrate for an early buy.
  • In Europe, Yara has now issued August terms, having already sold out of its June and July offering.
  • August pricing for 33.5% AN in bulk is €263/t on farm, reflecting the firm international urea market, which is lending support to higher nitrogen pricing across Europe.
  • Achema have no tonnes of Lithan to offer for export until September at the earliest and availability of AN across Europe looks tight heading into a new season.
  • In the UK, it would appear that interest is starting to surface with harvest getting nearer and forward grain prices better than a fortnight ago.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.125 1.2733 1.1339
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Jun19 120-125 148-155 240-250 305-310
Nov19 127-132 145-150 195-205 314-318
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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