Market Report

Thursday 14 May 2020

COVID-19 – Safe transfer of grain passports and self-isolating

It is important that all farmers follow UK government advice with regard to sanitising and best practice. We strongly recommend all participants in the grain supply chain read this advice from AHDB https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/coronavirus-guidance-for-combinable-crop-deliveries-and-collections

If farmers are quarantined or self-isolated for a period of time and therefore unable to load combinable crop sales or accept deliveries of seed or fertiliser, please advise your ADM farm trader as soon as possible and we can then delay the collection/delivery until the period of self-isolation is complete.

To date, the grain supply chain is working close to normality. All parts of the industry are working well together, and the situation is obviously under constant review and of the utmost importance in keeping the nation supplied. ADM Agriculture would like to thank all our customers for their ongoing support.

Wheat

  • US prices are down $5/t on the week as concerns over a slowing US economy and an USDA report that did little for the bulls prompted commodity selling.
  • USDA’s initial report of 2020/21 global supply and demand projected a 15mln t increase in global wheat stocks, although 85% of that is accounted for by China and India.
  • US corn supplies are forecast to rise to their highest level in over 30 years due to the massive increase in the intended area of what is expected to be a record crop.
  • Canadian all-wheat sowings for 2020/21 are estimated at 25.4mln acres, up 3.3% year on year, mainly due to increases in winter and durum wheat.
  • CONAB reports that Brazilian wheat imports in 2020/21 are expected to reach a record high of 7.3mln t, following increased domestic demand due to the coronavirus.
  • Russia had exported 5.1mln t of its Q2 export quota of 7mln t as of 7 May, stating exports will cease when the quota tonnage has been shipped.
  • Ukraine’s wheat exports have reached 19.5mln t so far this season, with the ministry ready to ban exports if volumes exceed the 20.2mln t agreed with exporters.
  • Morocco has extended its suspension of import duties on soft wheat until 31 December, to ensure price stability and regular supply amid lower domestic output.
  • Tunisia’s cereal import requirement for 2020/21 will rise by around 20% on the year to 3.8mln t as the grain harvest is expected to fall by one third.
  • EU (Paris) new crop futures are down €2/t the week, falling in line with the US decline.
  • France’s farm office has forecast an increase in French wheat exports outside the EU to 13.3mln t this season, although ending stocks were increased to 2.9mln t due to lower domestic usage and intra-EU exports.
  • The farm office also reported the condition of France’s soft wheat crops as stable to week ending 4 May, at 57% good/excellent, but this remains well down on a year earlier.
  • In its monthly update Strategie Grains cut its projection of the EU 2020/21 soft wheat crop from 135.0mln t to 132.9mln t, with ending stocks also declining to 11.4mln t.
  • UK (London) new crop futures are up just over £2/t the week, supported by a weaker currency as confirmation of an ailing economy hit the value of sterling. UK crops need rain, but there is little or none in the forecast. With UK prices at or close to import parity we will need international prices to move up, or Sterling to weaken, if we are to see much better prices.
  • In summary, the projection by the USDA of the 2020/21 balance sheet, while much in line with most expectations, still portrays the overview of more than abundant supplies. While global wheat production and stocks (non-China and India) shows little change on the year, the potential of huge US corn supplies and ample supplies of global barley will continue to provide resistance to higher prices.

Malting Barley

  • There is talk of China possibly applying a tax on Australian barley imports.
  • This could potentially benefit EU (French) export sales if it happens.
  • EU farmers are reluctant to sell malting barley due to the current low malting premiums.
  • Maltsters remain absent from the market, more concerned about the ongoing problem with beer sales.
  • UK maltsters say they may not need to buy much more barley until the new year.
  • UK exporters have made one or two Oct/Dec sales this week, although at reduced levels.

Rapeseed

  • Tuesday saw the release of USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) which included the first look at ending stocks for the 2020/21 season, soybeans summarised as follows:
    • US 19/20 soybean ending stocks were reported at 15.78mln t vs. 13.06mln t in April.
    • US 20/21 soybean ending stocks were reported at 11.02mln t.
    • World 19/20 soybean ending stocks were reported 100.27mln t vs. 100.45mln t in April.
    • World 20/21 soybean ending stocks were reported at 98.39mln t.
    • Brazil 19/20 soybean production was lowered from 124.5mln t to 124mln t.
    • Argentina 19/20 soybean production was lowered from 52mln t to 51mln t.
  • While there were no major surprises, it was still regarded as a bearish report, with nearby demand destruction resulting in large ending stocks. As a result, CBOT soybeans and meal have drifted lower.
  • In Brazil, the real has traded at new lows to make it more competitive on the export market against the US. Even with new sales of 396,000t to China, there is pressure on US agricultural products to come down to remain competitive.
  • The crude oil market found support this week, helped by Saudi Arabia committing to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day, to 7 million barrels. Further support was added by reports that Russia has ordered oil production to reduce in one province by 15%. However, this was tempered by an Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast indicating global 2020 oil demand could fall by up to 2.1 million barrels per day. WTI has hovered above $25 per barrel and Brent Crude is now nearing $30.
  • In Australia, reports that China may impose an 80% tariff on Australian barley imports have left growers looking to switch into alternative cropping. However, there is little room to switch into oilseeds, as canola plantings have been advancing. In South Australia, Western Australia and New South Wales, the planting campaign is nearing completion, with Victoria the only state lagging slightly at 70% complete. Timely rains are still required but there is no sense of panic at the moment.
  • In Canada, Stats Can released its planting area survey to peg the Canola area at 20.6m acres, down 1.6% from last year and below trade expectations of just over 21m acres. While supportive to prices, this shouldn’t significantly change the export surplus to Europe next year.
  • European rapeseed has drifted lower this week, now trading €7.75 lower than last Thursday. Despite the slight rally in oil, a bearish USDA, together with uncertainty surrounding the resumption of demand for biodiesel or food use and no real lift to the weather situation, has combined to leave the market drifting without fresh news.
  • In the UK, crush coverage remains good, with the same concerns for rapeseed oil demand weighing on the market. Following figures of a 2.1% decline in GDP for Q1 and expectations of another round of quantitative easing, GBP traded lower, partially offsetting the decline in prices.

Pulses

Beans

  • Old crop demand is limited as stocks dry up.
  • New crop prices are lower than old crop and farmers with remaining stocks should consider the possibility of taking advantage of the current market.
  • Egypt remains well supported with good stock levels and limited demand during Ramadan.
  • Egyptian’s own crop is considered to be good and therefore further limiting demand.
  • The Sudanese market remains closed.

Peas

  • Crop 2019 is practically traded out.
  • Crop 2020 is planted and considered to be in OK condition but could do with more rain.
  • The planting window is now closed.
  • Demand for new crop limited as historically still very early to offer.

Seed

Winter OSR

  • We have a range of OSR varieties available with a selection of different traits to suit your needs, including Clearfield & HOLL Some varieties are available on very appealing establishment schemes.
  • We also have flea beetle deterrent RGT Beetleblocker, an OSR companion crop. It’s a simple, practical high-quality mix containing RGT Blackmillion OSR, Fenugreek & Berseem Clover. Get in touch with your farm trader for more information.

Cover crops and small seeds

  • Click here to view our small seeds brochure. ADM has a range of readymade cover crop mixes to offer and we can also cater for your bespoke needs.

Over-yeared wheat and barley seed

  • We have a selection of over-yeared varieties ready to be treated to order and delivered on farm early.

Fertiliser

  • The Indian tender was confirmed at 650,000t sold basis having left load port by second half June.
  • This tonnage is well down on the rumoured 1.75mln t required, with considerable resistance by producers to meet the price levels set and traders not liking the newly introduced less favourable payment terms. Another tender will now have to take place in the second half of June.
  • Pricing was too low for Chinese urea to participate. Most tonnage came from North African, Middle Eastern and Black Sea manufacturers, the traditional origins of European urea who are about to enter the market.
  • Prices would now appear to be stabilising in the region, with manufacturers increasing levels after clearing a level of stock hanging over the market. A weaker £/$ is negatively impacting FOB values, also adding additional support to levels which have now bounced by $5/6t on the week.
  • New season ammonium nitrate prices are being discussed and cheap gas currently will likely influence an attractive start level. With an increased nitrogen market forecast next season with larger plantings expected, we recommend planning ahead.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.13 1.221 1.0805
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
May20 121-129 145-155 235-240 307-312
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

Latest Tweets

Follow Us

Get updates

Registered Office:
5 Hercules Way, Leavesden Park,
Watford WD25 7GS.

Company Number: 904957