Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
jobs
news
products
reports
Site

Market Report

Thursday 18 November 2021

Subscribe to the ADM Agriculture YouTube channel for the latest grain, seed & fertiliser market updates and much more!

Wheat

  • US markets remain firm amid continued dryness in that country and other markets are following suit, with the ongoing story of increased global import requirements and declining export availability adding support.
  • There was a short-term spot dip in the markets at the start of the week but prices have traded back higher. This follows concerns over Canada’s ability to export out of the wider Vancouver area after extreme weather struck the Pacific North West, bringing widespread disruption.
  • As we have written about for a number of weeks now, EU exports continue at an untenable pace. Brussels is still to release its latest export numbers due to bureaucratic issues, but extrapolating the most recent French port data suggests October exports were at a seven-year high.
  • Overall EU shipments are running 30% ahead of last year’s pace and on course to shrink ending stocks to an exceptionally tight 6-7mln t – around an impossible two weeks’ worth.
  • Australian weather remains unfavourable for wheat, adding to global concerns over quality. However, the crop is on course to exceed overall export capacity, so there will be plenty of wheat to ship, albeit of lower-than-usual quality.
  • Ethanol production in the US continues to progress, with production at 1.06 mln barrels/day for the week ending 12 November, up 2% on the week and over 10% higher than the same week last year. Weekly corn usage continued to outpace the required rate by around 7%.
  • Argentina continues to be about the only story offering any reprieve to global output, with latest estimates suggesting a 1% increase in plantings, although this did little to calm the market.
  • The market will be turning to the outcome of the next Egypt tender as a guide to prolonged sentiment, as traditional exporters continue to turn their gaze inwards, constantly adding to the pressure on importers and keeping the market supported.
  • UK prices remain firm following world markets higher, despite sterling firming significantly on expectation that interest rates will increase in December.

Malting Barley

  • The malting barley market is slightly firmer again this week.
  • Logistics, haulage and shipping continue to be a problem for the whole supply chain.
  • UK maltsters are covered up until March, but there is plenty of demand for the later months.
  • This week has seen more farmers contracting for crop 2022.
  • Please contact you local ADM Agriculture farm trader for contract details.

Feed Barley

  • Barley markets have remained steady again over the last week.
  • Further tender activity has been announced from Turkey and underlying demand from Saudi Arabia/North Africa is helping to keep a floor under an already tight Black Sea market.
  • The Chinese are buying ‘fair average quality’ (FAQ) barley out of Argentina, which is removing this origin from the mix.
  • The northern European market remains tight, although demand is being rationed by competitive corn values.
  • The spread between wheat and barley in the UK has widened with wheat moving higher, which will incentivise further domestic barley consumption in the new year, and should support prices further, particularly as procurement ex-farm remains a challenge.

Oats

  • At the time of writing, London ICE May’22 wheat futures traded at a new contract high of £232.25 (up £3 on the week). Consequentially the oat market continues to gain support from the rise in global grain prices. Supply logistics are becoming an ever-increasing problem, with haulage rates reaching unprecendented levels. In some cases, rates have appreciated by 50% and occasionally more. These costs are being felt within the whole supply chain and will contribute to food inflation.
  • On paper the domestic milling oat consumers are well covered until Jan/Feb’22 time. However the wider export market into Europe remains hungry for both milling and feed oats for Dec/Jan. Demand for feed oats into the compound feed sector remains high given the differential to barley, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see this market tighten as the season progresses.

Seed

  • We have a great spring seed portfolio to suit all situations. Including high yielding spring barley Skyway and dual purpose Laureate.
  • Why not try the added benefits of Tiros seed treatment, which has a return of investment of 10:1. Tiros is a bacterial endophyte proven to fix nitrogen in crops. Watch our latest YouTube video with some results from our winter wheat seed treatment trials.
  • For any late drilling opportunities, we have a limited amount of floor stocks available for immediate dispatch. Get in touch with your farm trader now for more information.

Fertiliser

  • Granular urea availability in December shipment is severely limited due to new restrictions imposed by Egypt on fertiliser exports.
  • The Indian tender has also taken much of December tonnage off the world market, further tightening supply. Demand in Europe and South America has still to surface and so values look well supported going into Q1 2022.
  • UK ammonium nitrate producer CF has increased prices by about £20/t. Another increase on the next set of terms is expected.
  • Rising tensions in Belarus and German regulatory delays to the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline could have an impact on European gas markets once again. This is likely to underpin European nitrogen fertiliser production costs.
  • With an increase in seasonal logistical pressures, product bought for Nov/Dec delivery is becoming increasingly hard to execute. Delaying purchasing decisions further will only mean orders placed in spring 2022 will face delays and prompt deliveries will not be an option.
  • DAP prices have increased once again. MOP and TSP levels remain high. We can offer a carbon neutral, renewable alternative PK fertiliser – Fibrophos and P-Grow – for delivery Nov-Apr at the sellers call.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.18895 1.3487 1.1343
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Dec21 200-215 210-230 250-255 590-595
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

Latest Tweets

Follow Us

Get updates

Registered Office:
5 Hercules Way, Leavesden Park,
Watford WD25 7GS.

Company Number: 904957