Market Report

Thursday 19 September 2019

Wheat

  • Wheat markets continue to consolidate after the recent lows, with key importing regions seen increasing coverage.
  • US prices are up about $2/t on the week as underlying strength from the brisk export pace continues to support.
  • Rains continue to slow the spring wheat harvest, now seen at 76% complete, and quality issues are starting to surface due to the wet conditions.
  • Wet weather continues to slow harvesting in most areas across the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Manitoba, Canada. Progress is behind the five-year average in all regions (46% complete compared with the five-year average of 65% in Manitoba).
  • Grain traders in the Ukraine have asked the government to increase the volume of wheat allowed for export in the 2019/20 marketing season to 20mln t, from the 19mln t already proposed.
  • Paris futures are up €2/t on the week, supported by a firmer trend in Chicago, as traders assess a flurry of international tenders that suggested mixed export prospects for western European wheat.
  • Soft wheat exports from the EU reached 5.1mln t as of 15 Sept, up 34% year on year. Romania remains the top exporter, followed by France, with Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt the top three destinations.
  • Algeria and Egypt have purchased wheat this week, with France likely to secure the majority of Algerian, and Russia securing all the Egyptian business.
  • London futures are trading £2 higher on the week, following the general global trend amidst signs of short-covering.
  • With sterling remaining steady, the UK has lost its competitiveness on feed exports, although the price paid by Algeria may allow some quality export potential.
  • Overall, the scenario of too much wheat overhanging the markets remains. Export pace remains ahead, both in the US and the EU, which is keeping cash prices underpinned.
  • Weather concerns are still apparent in the southern hemisphere, and wet weather in north America continues to disrupt harvest progress, raising quality issues.
  • On its own, it remains hard to get bullish over wheat with the long-term bearish fundamentals still intact.

Malting Barley

  • There has been very little activity in the UK or EU markets over the past few days.
  • Prices and premiums remain under pressure.
  • Buyers are well covered with pre-harvest contracted barley.
  • There has been some farmer selling for crop 2020 from those growers who prefer to be on some sort of committed contract.
  • We have various contracts available including the ADM pool. Please contact your local farm trader for details.

Rapeseed

  • The US soybean market eased back from last week’s highs as Chinese demand slowed again and benign weather increased yield prospects.
  • Reports that the White House was considering plans to increase biofuel quotas by 10% in 2020 instead of the rumoured 5%, boosted soy oil prices.
  • Crude oil jumped nearly 20% in early trading on Monday following the weekend drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil refineries.
  • EU rapeseed prices followed veg oil and mineral oil prices higher on Monday before easing back as markets became overbought.
  • The big import program of Black Sea rapeseed is giving the market a false sense of security, with supplies feeling heavy nearby.
  • Whilst EU production estimates have been tweaked higher, post-Christmas demand will need to be rationed given the current availability of sustainable, non-GM rapeseed.
  • Sterling remained firm this week, breaking 1.13 against the euro, its highest level since May.
  • EU planting reports point towards a sub 20mln t crop again next season, unless we see above-trend yields. EU prices will need to remain firm to secure sufficient imports.

Oats

  • Prices in all EU major oat production areas are continuing to trend lower as the oat harvest draws to a close, and the remaining data coming in suggests the market will be well supplied with milling quality oats.
  • In the UK, values on the week remain unchanged, as the carry from September to October has been eroded. It is hard to see what will drive any sustained upside movement to ex-farm values without more clarity on the Brexit/TRQ situation post October.

Pulses

  • Feed bean prices have remained stable on the week. There has been some demand domestically from the extruders, and shippers continue to cover short positions into the ports, however fresh export business is non-existent. There are export enquiries post October 19, however the buyers are not willing to bid firm until they know whether there will be any import tariffs in place. The UK is currently the only origin offering feed beans in any volume with the Baltic states still assessing the quality of their crop.
  • The premium for human consumption winter beans has drifted lower this week, as most of the demand we are seeing into North Africa is for spring beans. The premium for spring beans suitable for human consumption is unchanged on the week.
  • There has been a reasonable volume of passed-over vining peas harvested dry in Yorkshire, in greater quantities than previous years. Many feed compounders do not like using vining peas because of their size, however we do have outlets for this product so please contact your farm trader for further information.

Seed

Winter Cereal Seed

  • The last week has been very active again on winter cereal seeds.
  • Most varieties remain available, but stocks are changing daily, and some big names will soon be unavailable.
  • Hybrid barley remains tight with a small amount of SY Baracooda still available.

Winter Beans

  • Supply has become extremely tight in the past week. Please speak to your farm trader for availability.

Fertiliser

  • The attacks on Saudi Arabian oil producer Aramco at the beginning of the week brought future supply concerns. Saudi Arabia, along with Iraq and Qatar, are the largest producers of urea in the Middle East, with a combined capacity of 17mln t.
  • Gas supply to the Sabic urea plant was restored on Wednesday, so not interrupting the production of ammonia or fertiliser significantly, but tensions remain and rises in natural gas prices are possible.
  • Shipping freight rates have already increased due to higher insurance premiums. Further attacks will support the already firm outlook for nitrogen in Q4.
  • The Metals and Minerals Trading Corporation Indian tender has risen to 950,000t and is open to more if the urea can be sourced, although FOB levels are flat week on week, indicating that manufacturers are potentially covered for October shipment.
  • UK nitrogen producers CF is indicating a premium for November delivery at a minimal premium in comparison to Yara’s £16/t November premium. Pricing here is below levels on the Continent, so the upside risk remains evident due to minimal stock in the UK, currency swings, and the continuing possibility of tariffs.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.126 1.246 1.1065
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Nov19 116-118 127-135 174-184 331-336
May20 122-124 132-141 180-190 337-342
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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