Market Report

Thursday 21 March 2019

Wheat

The US market has risen up about $6/t on the week as the weather takes centre stage. Reports of extensive flooding due to melting snow, which is expected to worsen with more rain and snow in the forecast, have raised fears of spring wheat losses and delayed sowing of other spring crops. The upward move, led by MGEX hard red spring wheat futures, has dragged the Chicago market higher as weather premiums continued to be built into market values.

EU prices have also stabilised on the global bounce, moving up €4/t on the week, as a further strong vessel line-up provides underlying support. Exports of soft wheat to non-EU destinations are now reported only 11% down year on year. France, Germany and the Baltic states are well placed to maintain their hold on further international tenders, while the recent surge in the euro and the expected rebound in EU wheat production for 2019 are keeping prices in check.

UK prices have also moved higher, partly following the global trend and partly due to a pound weakened by the ongoing Brexit confusion. Fundamentally, it appears that the UK will have sufficient supplies for the current season. Domestic wheat usage is waning due to increased volumes of imported maize, and the likelihood that imports will be available at zero tariff. Current prices look attractive to growers, especially considering the expected drop into new crop.

In summary, fundamentally little has changed, but weather issues seemed to have stepped up a gear. The trade is aware of the fund position in the US market, although there is very little regarding old crop market dynamics to encourage them to change their stance. US wheat is going nowhere, and even if a US/Chinese deal were to be announced, it would probably be too late to dramatically alter the US balance sheets. This leaves the weather as the short, medium and long-term driver for a market where demand continues to be of great concern.

Malting Barley

The malting market remains quiet this week. There is a world malting barley conference next week which may generate some more buying interest. In the meantime, everyone’s focus is on EU spring plantings, which at the moment look very positive. The weather forecast for the UK looks perfect for growers to complete drilling. Scotland should be over well over 50% sown by the middle of next week.

Rapeseed

Another relatively quiet week with little farmer engagement in either old or new crop. Although certain disputes that had closed some of the key crush plants have now been resolved, the flow of seed from France has now dried up. However, consumer coverage seems good and no-one is really chasing the market.

In Canada, there has been no movement on the GMO issues with China and the market out there remains on the back foot. In Australia, dryness continues to cause some concerns about plantings, but growers have until the end of April before this becomes a real issue.

In the UK, currency continues to have a significant impact on domestic farmgate prices and sterling has been very volatile. Sterling sold off on Wednesday after the Prime Minister made her statement regarding her proposed extension to Article 50 and we expect it to remain volatile for the next few weeks.

Seed

Spring

We have limited amounts of most spring species still available. Please contact your farm trader for the latest stock updates as they are constantly changing at this late stage of the season. Peas remain a popular option as growers are looking for a non-cereal break to replace OSR that has been sprayed off this spring.

Autumn

As the spring campaign begins to wane, focus is now turning to the autumn campaign and the new varieties on offer as well as judging how current ones have performed on farm over previous seasons. Septoria resistance and soft wheats have grabbed all the headlines on the new wheat varieties, plus a brace of varieties coming through with TuYV resistance in OSR. Your farm trader and our seed specialists will be able to help you decide on cropping decisions for next season, call us for more details.

Fertiliser

Granular Urea

The urea market has rebounded this week after trading at floor levels not seen for nine months, Significant tonnages have been booked for April shipment at $248/249 FOB Egypt, an $8-10/t increase on last week’s trades. However, prices on farm in the UK remain largely unchanged, and port-side stocks in the UK are depleting quickly as farmers make the most of favourable weather. For growers with more product to buy, Gleadell can offer immediate delivery. Please contact your local Gleadell farm trader or the Fertiliser Department on 01427 421241.

Ammonium Nitrate

AN prices continue much as last week. CF Fertilisers UK continue to deliver AN for March and April to keep up with demand. Imported prices have eased to maintain the typical £10/t discount to UK product. Farmers still looking for final AN requirements are encouraged to order ASAP to avoid delays and ensure timely deliveries for second applications.

£/€ £/$ €/$
1.151 1.3115 1.139
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Mar19 127.00-137.00 157.00-170.00 245.00-255.00 300.00-305.00
May19 129.00-139.00 159.00-171.00 247.00-257.00 302.00-307.00
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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