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Thursday 22 April 2021
- All markets have traded considerably higher over the past week as weather concerns relating to global corn and wheat production prospects have increased speculative buying.
- Dry weather is causing concern over vast areas of key Northern Hemisphere wheat growing regions as well as Brazil’s corn crop.
- Drought-like conditions in the Southern and Northern Plains of the US and into Canada has analysts already rethinking acreage and yield potential of the crops. The very cold spell entrenched across the US is providing additional support due to its likely impact upon the winter wheat crop at the key heading stage.
- In Europe, as the recent cold period eases, attention has shifted to ongoing dryness after little or no rain fell in France, Germany and the UK over the past few weeks, increasing concerns over crop stress.
- Parts of the Black Sea region could also do with a drink, but conditions in Ukraine and Russia have been more favourable. Indeed, Ukraine’s 2021 grain harvest is seen increasing 13% year on year to 73.6mln t, including 27.6mln t of wheat, which should allow the country to increase grain exports to 54.2mln t, up from 45.6mln t this season.
- However, Argentina is experiencing too much rain. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the country’s 2020/21 corn harvest only 14% complete as of 15 April, compared with a five-year average of 25%.
- Moving into May, winter wheat crops will be entering key development stages. In addition, this is a key month for spring crop sowing in the US, which is mostly dependent on adequate moisture supplies. Further extension of current weather conditions could have major consequences on final production levels.
- As the adage says, ‘rain makes grain’ and currently that is what key Northern Hemisphere-producing regions around the globe need.
- China sold 410,700t of wheat at an auction of state reverses last week. This was 10% of the total offered as restrictions were put in place allowing only end-users to bid for supplies.
- Russia’s grain exports continue to slow with only 2.2mln t being forecast for April, down from 2.4mln t shipped during March, as the higher export tax lowers competitiveness.
- Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen 23% on the year to 37.5mln t so far this season, with traders selling 14.7mln t of wheat, 18.1mln t of corn and 4.1mln t of barley.
- Brazil has suspended import duties on corn and soy products until the end of the year in an attempt to slow inflationary pressure fanned by rising global commodity prices.
- However, Morocco plans to increase customs duties on wheat imports to help domestic farmers benefit from an expected rise in production following two years of consecutive drought.
- The dry weather concerns that we have in the UK are spreading into some areas of the EU.
- Malting barley prices have increased in both the UK and the EU.
- Brewers and maltsters however are reluctant to pay the new prices for now, hoping for rain.
- With all the uncertainty in the market, now could be a good time to look at one of the many marketing contracts ADM has available.
- Old crop barley prices continue to climb as supply remains extremely thin. Meanwhile we see continued demand from domestic consumers, as well as for nearby shipments to the Netherlands, Portugal and Ireland.
- New crop is also firming daily, led by the rally in futures, but helped along by the continued dry weather. With zero selling confidence from farmers, trade sellers are quickly retreating, and as a result, the discount to wheat has narrowed sharply to inside £15 at best.
- CBOT soybeans meal and oil have had very strong weekly gains. As of today soybeans have risen 8.8% in 7 trading sessions. The market is currently well supported thanks to weather issues and tight world supplies.
- China continues to battle African swine fever and has now put in more measures to prevent further spread. Old crop crush margins remain negative, but are improving. Margins for 2022 are positive and around 10 Brazilian cargoes have been bought over the last week. China’s government has also published guidelines for the reduction of corn and soymeal usage in pig feed and so they may start consuming more wheat.
- Over the last week the US has been cold and dry. There were some rains forecast, but they never materialised. Next week is looking similar, although this weather is good for land work. It’s a very similar story in Canada, but there is a possibility of rain next week
- Weather in Argentina is looking wet and hampering harvest efforts. Currently only 7% of the soybean crop has been harvest compared with the 29% average.
- Soybean futures are now at their highest levels since June 2013. Soy oil followed the trend as concerns of tight veg oil came to light. This was highlighted by knowledge that two Ukrainian shipments of rapeseed has been sold to Canadian buyers for August, which is almost unheard of.
- Matif has had a very strong week. It came into the week with 10 straight day highs on the back of weather issues in Europe, where 50,000ha of French OSR may have been badly affected. It has continued this strength all week, however it may only be temporary, particularly if some rain comes into the forecast.
- Canadian canola has also had a strong week. The Canadian agriculture ministry put its canola acreage at 8.75mln ha, up by 350,000ha from last year.
- Asian markets have spent the week trading higher on the news of tight soy oil stocks. Palm oil dropped midweek due to fears of lack of Chinese demand, however it quickly rebounded to follow soy oil up.
- Sterling started the week off strong, but soon began to fall as the global outlook continues to look poor with Covid still dominating some large countries.
- The old crop market has continued to drift sideways and is fairly illiquid. Buyers are not chasing the market at all and this is reflected in any bid levels.
- Although quality reports for winter and spring oats in the ground have been positive, the dryness is of some concern, with no relief in the immediate forecast. Definitely one to watch.
- Old crop bean prices continue to drift lower in the face of limited demand, despite other protein and cereal prices rallying. Consumer coverage appears to be relatively good in the nearby, however there are some gaps to fill over the summer.
- New crop bean prices have rallied in line with London wheat futures. Despite the significant price increase, farmer selling remains non-existent as concerns are being raised due to the continued dry weather.
- We still have marrowfat and large blue peas available on ADM Agriculture’s market leading buybacks for any last minute cropping changes.
- If you’re looking for cover crops, we have a range of readymade mixes and can cater for bespoke needs. Contact your farm trader for more information.
- ADM has a great portfolio of OSR varieties available for the autumn, including Duplo, the most vigorous variety DSV has bred for the UK, with exceptional oil content. Duplo has triple-layer protection of Turnip Yellow Virus (TuYV) resistance, pod shatter resistance and RLM7. It is available in 1.8 million seed packs with 20% extra seed to allow growers to have more flexibility with seed rates.
- Granular urea is continuing to attract demand here in the UK. Prices are relatively stable, with stocks now low port side while high replacement values remain.
- UK ammonium nitrate prices continue to trade at levels seen when prices corrected following significant rises in Q1 of 2021. Demand is still high and delivery times are excellent at present on full loads.
- Demand for NPK(S) for grassland markets is expected to continue supporting current values, as will and spring crop usage when rain appears in the forecast.
- Higher prices for most commodities in comparison to 2020 prices indicate that reset levels this year could be higher than some expect. On-farm stock is anecdotally low and buying patterns at present appear to be hand to mouth.
- Phosphate prices have increased around 60% in comparison to 2020 lows (TSP). ADM Agriculture has alternative phosphate products for post-harvest delivery, giving the ability to fix costs in a rising market. Gains have not been as significant as TSP yet on these alternatives.
- Take a look at the latest fertiliser YouTube update with ADM Agriculture’s Amy Vickers and Dr Sajjad Awan from CF Fertilisers, as they discuss soil.
|Feed Barley £||Wheat £||Beans £||Oilseed Rape £|
NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
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ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.
On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.