Market Report

Thursday 22 October 2020

Sampling – Harvest 2020

Knowing the quality of crops is especially important this year so if you have not already done so, please contact your farm trader to arrange for sample bags to be sent to you. Once you have samples ready, we will collect them and the results will be available via our online portal, ADM 365, or from your ADM farm trader.

Wheat

  • As is normal for the time of year, the weather continues to sit in the driving seat on global markets, although currency is seeing significant movement.
  • Following the USDA report 13 days ago, the US CBOT market saw some follow-through buying, but the rate of appreciation has slowed in recent days.
  • Market eyes continue to be focused on the ongoing effects of dryness in Russia and Eastern Ukraine and, more recently, snowfall in central/northern USA, on new crop prospects.
  • Market researcher SovEcon continues to forecast a 10-15% reduction in Russian winter wheat sowings, albeit rains in central regions will have helped over the past week.
  • Russia is expected to export around 50mln t of grain in the current marketing season, up 5mln t on its previous estimate of 45mln t,. However, it remains to be seen whether any export quota will be introduced in the first half of 2021 to protect domestic supplies. Exports to end of Sep 20 were marginally down at 11.6mln t.
  • Currency continues to see significant moves, with the US dollar hitting a seven-week low. Closer to home, the pound has seen significant volatility this week as the Brexit negotiations rollercoaster continues. Values ranged from 1.28-1.315 against the dollar and 1.095-1.11 against the euro.
  • UK wheat futures old crop values have appreciated about £5/t on the week as Matif moves in a similar pattern.
  • UK sellers of Oct-Dec 20 wheat seem to have taken out most of the demand. However, Jan-July 21 is a different picture, with very little market discussion on a physical side for feed grades. Flour millers have been more active.

Malting Barley

  • There is little change in the EU or UK malting barley markets.
  • Demand for malting barley continues to reduce due to the restrictions on the hospitality sector.
  • UK maltsters are mainly covered into the New Year apart from low nitrogen distilling barley.
  • There are a few trade shorts who are finding it difficult to get offers.
  • Crop 2021 supply looks to be much tighter than this year, which is reflected in the higher prices and premiums.

Feed Barley

  • We continue to see good demand into the UK’s ports, as we remain competitive for both coaster sizes to the EU and larger vessels to third country destinations.
  • We have seen buying interest for Nov/Dec from the Netherlands, Ireland and Spain over the past week, helping to keep values supported on the week. We have also seen tenders from Tunisia/Algeria in the last few days.
  • The domestic market is still trading at a slight discount, with buying interest mostly confined to Q4. Coverage in the new year remains open.
  • Farmer selling is still fairly slow, and we anticipate prices will remain supported in the nearby positions. However the pound is firming and further gains here could well pressure prices.
  • New crop is picking up, with initial values trading at approximately £15-20 under feed wheat, depending on location.

Rapeseed

  • US stock markets remain volatile as Covid-19 cases rise and politicians step up campaigns ahead of the US election next month.
  • US soybeans continued to edge upwards this week. Harvest is 75% complete now vs. 61% last week (58% average). The wetter weather will hinder progress for those left to finish.
  • USDA announced further sales of US soybeans to unknown destinations, but nothing additional to China.
  • China’s September soybean imports were recorded at 9.8mln t, bringing the total Oct-Sept total to 98.5mln t.
  • Brazil’s weather forecast is for showers over the next week, with heavier rains in the 6-10 day forecast, which will give farmers some confidence to plant. Commodities analyst Safras estimated last week that 6% of the Brazilian soybean crop had been planted vs 19% last year (17% average).
  • Decent rain was recorded in Argentina last night, with more in the forecast. It does get drier in the two-week outlook. Farmer selling is slow. Reports suggest a 24-hour port strike in Argentina which will slow production.
  • Palm oil remained firmer over the past few sessions, but struggled to get back to season highs. Earlier in the week, prices of palm rose 3% overnight bouncing off the 50-day moving average, due to ongoing production concerns. However, with the weakness in mineral oil, prices over the last few days weighed on the complex.
  • In Canada, farmer selling is slowing as harvest comes to a close. Combines are pretty much finished in Western Canada, with less than 5% of the crop still in the field in Alberta. National harvest pace is said to be ahead of the five-year average and, with prices at good levels, there has been more farmer selling off the combine than usual.
  • Matif rapeseed firmed on the back of higher US markets. Rapeseed values returned to season highs seen in September, but struggle to get to the magical €400 at present.
  • UK prices didn’t see much of the Matif benefit, with sterling having its biggest day against the euro since March on the back of yesterday’s Brexit talks. As the deadline draws closer, the pound is likely to stay volatile for the foreseeable future.

Pulses

  • Faba bean prices are stable on the week. Shippers are now covered for their spot requirements and there is little fresh export interest for feed beans. There has been some interest this week from domestic feed compounders as beans continue to look good value against other protein sources, which is helping to support the market.
  • Human consumption demand remains subdued and the UK remains outpriced into Egypt. There remains demand into Sudan, but the window of opportunity closes at the middle of January.
  • Pea buybacks are available for harvest 2021. Please contact your farm trader for further information.

Seed

  • Winter wheat – contact your farm trader for an update on our latest stocks to fill any of your outstanding autumn seed requirements. Although stocks are very limited we do still have availability of a few key varieties.
  • Winter barley – we still have a small amount of Craft malting barley and hybrid variety Baracooda ready for immediate delivery.
  • Peas – ADM has market leading buybacks available on large blues and marrowfats. Please contact your farm trader for more information.

Fertiliser

  • Initial reports from the Indian tender, now closed, suggests that there will be a significant tonnage of urea (2.18mln t) awarded, which should provide support to the global market.
  • Urea and UAN pricing levels are currently stable, both internationally and here in the UK.
  • Drilling is progressing and is well ahead of this time last year. UK markets are slowly gaining traction, with new CF terms out this week.
  • ADM is able to offer finance on fertiliser purchases to allow those who typically buy in Q1 the opportunity to capitalise on the current break-even ratio levels and avoid any risks associated post 1 January.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.106 1.31 1.185
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Nov20 140-145 180-190 206-211 345-350
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

Latest Tweets

Follow Us

Get updates

Registered Office:
5 Hercules Way, Leavesden Park,
Watford WD25 7GS.

Company Number: 904957