Market Report

Thursday 27 June 2019

Wheat

  • US prices are up around $10/t on the week, supported by lower Canadian planting numbers, a reduction in US winter and spring crop ratings, and a slower than normal harvest pace. In addition, continued rainfall is seen increasing the threat of lower quality and disease issues.
  • Tomorrow will see the release of US stocks figure as of 1 June and revised US wheat planting figures. Trade estimates put wheat stocks at 1.09bln bushels, similar to last year’s 1.1bln, with plantings seen at 45.6mln acres, slightly lower than March’s official estimate of 45.75mln acres.
  • Excessive rainfall and the potential for early frosts are seen threatening Argentinian wheat sowings, estimated at 50% last week by the BAGE. The intended planted area of 6.4mln ha was seen producing a record wheat crop of circa 20.5mln t.
  • EU prices have firmed on the week, trading €5/t higher as the heatwave spreads across much of mainland Europe and into parts of the Ukraine. However, analysts downplay the current threat, stating that it’s too late in the crop’s development stage for any significant crop losses.
  • Wheat production prospects remain favourable in the Black Sea region, despite earlier dryness concerns, as Russia’s wheat crop is now seen by many to be in excess of 80mln t, with the US’s Foreign Agricultural Service placing the Ukrainian wheat crop at 29mln t.
  • UK prices (new crop) are about £2/t higher on the week, supported by firmer EU markets and a dip in sterling. The pound’s weakness is somewhat tied to the fact that both candidates in the Conservative Party leadership contest have stated they are prepared to leave the EU with a no deal at the end of October and remain divided over their Brexit plans.

Malting Barley

  • The EU market went up slightly on the back of the hot weather. However, maltsters and brewers stayed out of the market.
  • In the UK, traders sold a small amount of new crop winters and springs at around £5 below the last sale.
  • Brexit uncertainty around exports continues to depress UK prices.
  • Please contact us for details of our buyback contracts which are now available for crop 2020.

Rapeseed

  • CBOT soybeans remain volatile, reacting to changes in the US weather. Overall conditions are starting to look drier as we head into July, with temperatures starting to get warmer.
  • As mentioned in previous reports, planting in the western corn belt is complete. The eastern corn belt remains wet, which is slowing progress. There are roughly 12.7mln acres of soybeans left to plant vs. planting intentions in March. Plant prevent insurance deadlines have now passed in most states.
  • Chinese soybean demand going forward remains questionable as Asian Swine Flu continues to make the news. It was reported that 3.7mln pigs have been culled, with the majority of cases in China and Vietnam. Smaller cases have been reported in Hong Kong, Taiwan, North Korea, Laos, Cambodia and Mongolia, and some EU countries.
  • In Canada, despite widespread rain, some canola crops were missed and are still in need of rain in the next few weeks. Yesterday, Statistics Canada estimated a planted canola area of 20.95 mln acres, down 400,000 acres from April’s estimate. This is the lowest area since 2016, down 8% from last year, whilst other members of the trade still estimate plantings to be down as much as 10%-12% vs. last year.
  • In Australia, farmer selling remains slow. There are showers in the forecast over the weekend, which should help improve soil moisture and plant conditions.
  • In Europe we continue to see growers sell their old crop balances as they prepare for the impending harvest. Harvest has just started in Ukraine, with yield coming in as expected. EU crop estimates still vary but are sub 18mlm t.
  • Here in the UK, whilst Matif rapeseed futures follow other markets lower over the last few days, weaker sterling has helped support UK domestic prices.

Seed

  • HOLL OSR contracts are available for Harvest 2020 with a limited amount of V353OL, the new HOLL variety with improved autumn vigour still available.
  • Autumn wheat seed offers are now available, with Septoria resistance being the key driver on variety choice this season. However, don’t get blinkered by Septoria resistance and forget about other key characteristics, such as midge resistance, rust ratings, and standing ability.
  • Winter beans – a reminder to get your bean seed requirements sorted, as supply is expected to be way outstripped by demand this autumn.

Fertiliser

  • Global urea pricing remains firm due to tight supply and continued demand. Granular urea has traded at $295/t fob Egypt this week, up again from the last reported trade.
  • Trade flows have altered due to reduced supply from North African plants that are currently down for scheduled maintenance. This has allowed Chinese exports to enter the market.
  • India has announced its most recent tender for approximately 1mln t. This will help support prices further.
  • In the UK, granular urea offers have firmed from previous weeks, as currency continues to drive the price. The bearish sentiment towards sterling and a globally firm market will continue to direct our pricing. On farm replacement today is fast approaching £300/t.
  • CF released October terms at the beginning of the week and demand has remained high for AN and NS products at current levels. If sterling were to weaken further, as analysts suggest is a possibility, pricing will firm once again on all imported products.
  • Liquid terms are now also available. UAN, like AN, is on the 6.5% tariff list, so tank fill pricing before 31 October is advisable.
  • Uncertainty beyond then is limiting what the market has to offer. Some are viewing this as a warning sign to secure tonnage now and taking ADM Agriculture finance on offer to limit any risk.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.118 1.271 1.1365
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Jul19 117-127 144-156 245-255 310-315
Nov19 124-134 144-154 198-208 319-324
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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