The US market is marginally lower over the week, ahead of key quarterly stock and planting data due to be released tomorrow, and official winter wheat crop ratings set to re-commence next week. A general lack of fresh news over the US/China trade talks is seen as negative as market shorts seem totally unfazed about prices rallying on either a trade deal or wet US spring weather delaying fieldwork. They are more focused on the bearish outlook for US supplies, despite the 120,000t sale to Egypt this week.
European prices are mixed, lower in the old crop positions, but higher in the new. Weakness in old crop was heightened recently as Egypt shunned French supplies to purchased solely US origin in its recent tender. With a perceived lack of fresh export demand, and domestic usage waning under the sheer volume of more competitive maize imports, the likelihood remains for further increases in old crop inventories. New crop values have held steady, mainly supported by continued concerns over dryness across much of the EU and parts of the FSU.
UK prices are virtually unchanged on the week, as Brexit continues to make all the headlines, and currency reacts to the news. Fundamentally, no change with a market stagnated by limited activity in both farmer selling and consumption buying.
In summary, another week and still no US/China trade deal to get the market excited. US weather is seen staying wet and cold, with the EU/Black Sea region turning colder, but staying dry. USDA is due to release key planting data tomorrow, although the trade isn’t expecting too much bullish news to come out of the reports. In the long term, it will be final harvested acreage, and yield, and not planted area, that will drive the US markets, but with weather conditions generally favourable around the globe, the outlook still looks like one to favour the bears, rather than the bulls!