Market Report

Thursday 5 August 2021

Subscribe to the ADM Agriculture YouTube channel for the latest grain, seed & fertiliser market updates and much more!

Wheat

  • Despite recent weakness in corn and oil markets, US wheat markets have posted steady gains in recent days as talk of declining US, Canadian and Russian wheat crops intensifies.
  • Almost a fifth of US spring wheat was reported as harvested by 1 August. Crop ratings are improving week on week, although at just 10% good/excellent the figure is well below the 73% recorded at the same time last year.
  • SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russian wheat production by 5.9mln t from its previous estimate, putting output at 76.4mln t mainly due to lower yields and a reduced crop area.
  • Russian farmers had harvested 12.8mln ha of wheat as of 2 August, slightly behind last year, with average yields about 5% lower at 3.48t/ha.
  • Things look brighter in Argentina, with Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting the corn harvest as over 80% complete, with production forecasts for corn and wheat left unchanged at 48mln t and 19mln t respectively.
  • However, in Brazil, consultancy AgRural reports that after drought and frosts the country’s farmers are expected to harvest 56mln t of second crop corn, about 19mln t lower than last season.
  • There are signs that rising global wheat prices are starting to choke export markets. In its latest tender Egypt’s state buyer GASC was offered just five cargoes, and only 60,000t of Romanian wheat was purchased at about $13/t above last week’s tender.
  • EU soft wheat exports have got off to a slow start, with the tally for the 2021/22 season to date reaching 963,000t as of 1 August compared with 1.48mln t the same time last year. However, the commission reported that some data was missing from this season’s figure, but this will catch up.
  • France’s agriculture ministry is forecasting the country’s soft wheat crop at 36.7mln t, down from 37.1mln t in July, citing that ‘concerns are focused on the quality of the crop’. The French harvest is still a stop/start affair with more wet weather forecast.
  • The UK harvest remains sluggish, with early reports from the south/south east showing proteins and specific weights slightly down year on year. However, in East Anglia and the Midlands, better proteins are being reported, but with more variable specific weights.
  • It is too early to be definitive regarding UK yields and quality. It has to be hoped that the forecasted wet, windy weather won’t cause too much harm to crops.
  • Supply shortages in the north and far west of the UK have maintained decent spot premiums, although these will quickly diminish as supply issues start to be addressed. If growers have dry wheat ready to move, it is still very much worth checking available values.

Malting Barley

  • The French spring barley harvest is not as good as expected.
  • The southern German spring barley crop is also disappointing.
  • Scandinavia should get underway next week, weather permitting.
  • The first UK springs (mainly winter sown) are showing very low nitrogen and bold grain. Specific weights are lower than normal.
  • EU and UK malting barley prices have moved higher over the past few days.

Feed Barley

  • The French spring barley harvest is not as good as expected.
  • The southern German spring barley crop is also disappointing.
  • Scandinavia should get underway next week, weather permitting.
  • The first UK springs (mainly winter sown) are showing very low nitrogen and bold grain. Specific weights are lower than normal.
  • EU and UK malting barley prices have moved higher over the past few days.

Rapeseed

  • Markets across the board saw pressure on Friday, with traders taking a risk-off approach and squaring positions for the month-end.
  • Rains in the Dakotas pressured soybean prices this week. Crop ratings were left unchanged from last week at 58% good/excellent compared with 72% last year.
  • China remained absent from the soybean market, but was an active player in the meal market. It has been six weeks since the country’s last confirmed trade with the US, and this continued absence is making the market nervous amid fears of another lockdown as Covid cases continue to increase.
  • Continued drought in Argentina still hinders river logistics.
  • Oil markets traded lower and crude oil markets fall sharply on demand fears. WTI oil is now trading at $68. Palm oil traded off its recent highs on demand fears and lower exports, but equally recovered on lower production numbers.
  • Canadian canola prices fell sharply again to three-week lows. Crop conditions continue to deteriorate with rains being viewed as disappointing. If anything, crop expectations are now falling below 15mln t. News that China is looking to release state reserves of rapeseed oil into its domestic market added pressure.
  • Matif rapeseed prices trade off recent highs, but recovered from Friday’s sell-off. Macro weakness won’t help values, but the sharp fall in Canadian production will leave a gap to fill in the EU balance sheet.
  • UK rapeseed yields are variable to date but land conditions and good forward price prospects are resulting in good rapeseed seed sales.

Pulses

  • Old crop values are expected to drift lower in the weeks to come as new crop approaches with some of the early cut winter beans likely to be harvested within the next 10-14 days.
  • New crop beans continue to follow wheat futures but the premium over wheat is starting to come under pressure at these higher values.
  • Bean prices are up nearly £20/t from the lows in July 21 and other mid-range proteins have not appreciated at the same rate, making feed beans uncompetitive in most domestic diets.
  • As a result, some consumers who have beans bought for the winter have asked to cash settle contracts and buy cheaper alternatives instead.
  • The first dried pea crops have been harvested but no data is available yet on yield or quality.
  • New crop marrowfat pea buybacks are available. Please contact your farm trader for further information.

Seed

  • Rapeseed – ADM Agriculture have LG Aviron available for immediate dispatch. Loaded with the N-flex trait as well as TuYV protection, pod shatter and RLM7 stem canker resistance, LG Aviron has excellent autumn vigour. Get in touch with your farm trader now for a summary of the varieties we can offer.
  • Cereals – For our full cereals summaries, please follow the link to our Seed Varieties Guide for Autumn 2021/22. Availability is still looking good across the board, with just a few of the newer varieties now beginning to look very limited.
  • Other – ADM can also cover all your cover crop + stewardship seed, with a wide range of mixes to suit your individual needs.

Fertiliser

  • Granular urea Egypt FOB prices have eased slightly between India’s tenders.
  • However, the next tender is expected in two weeks so the outlook remains firm into Q4. ADM Agriculture has a granular urea vessel arriving in September, with availability for discounts on bulk loads ex vessel.
  • UK ammonium nitrate producer CF increased prices last week by a further £10/t for August/September movement, as Yara continues to raise AN prices in Europe.
  • Nitrate prices have been edging up, supported by high input costs, tight supply and conditions in wider international markets.
  • Straights prices appear to have stabilised for the time being, but remain firm as supply levels continue to make an impact.
  • ADM Agriculture can still cover alternative PK options at competitive levels, although stock levels are becoming low.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.1745 1.3925 1.1855
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Aug21 150-160 179-199 spot available 230-235 436-446 new crop a/a
Aug21 174-184 new crop a/a
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

Latest Tweets

Follow Us

Get updates

Registered Office:
5 Hercules Way, Leavesden Park,
Watford WD25 7GS.

Company Number: 904957