Market Report

Thursday 6 February 2020

Wheat

  • US prices are marginally lower on the week, as Chinese import concerns linked to the coronavirus outbreak and a firmer US dollar continue to weigh on values.
  • Russian wheat export prices fell last week for the first time since November, due to strong export competition coupled with reduced demand.
  • Ukrainian grain exports are up 30% year on year at 36.8mln t, with wheat exports rising 4.3mln t to 15.9mln t.
  • Ukrainian officials and traders do not expect the coronavirus outbreak to have an impact on the country’s grain exports to China, although there are delays with transport and disruption to logistics throughout the country.
  • EU (Paris) futures are slightly higher on the week, as a weaker euro/US dollar rate and continuing strong export pace underpin paper and physical values, while traders struggle to replenish the pipeline due to recent strikes and strong demand.
  • UK old crop futures are slightly higher, supported by a slight fall in the value of the pound. New crop prices remain virtually unchanged on the week, capped by the price at which wheat and maize can be imported.
  • UK futures are slightly higher than old crop, supported by a slight fall in the pound, although new crop prices remain virtually unchanged on the week.
  • The recent dry spell has allowed some more drilling of winter wheat.
  • New crop UK prices remain capped by the price at which wheat and maize can be imported.
  • The UK has now officially left the EU. The country has now entered into a transition period ending on 31 December 2020, during which the government will try to negotiate a tariff-free trade deal with the EU.
  • In summary – a week all about China and the coronavirus, and its potential impact upon Chinese import demand, which continues to cloud the outlook for increased sales of US ag products.

Malting Barley

  • Crop 19 malting premiums remain low with a lack of sellers.
  • Crop 20 is uneventful due to the forecast for another big spring barley crop.
  • Premiums are low, but we still have a long way to go with very little of the EU spring barley sown to date.
  • We have various contracts available to ensure you get your preferred movement.

Rapeseed

  • Coronavirus continues to dominate the news this week as transport restrictions to contain the virus are having a knock-on effect on Chinese imports. Ports are now understaffed, and road transport is struggling to meet demand of meat and poultry producers.
  • Moves by the Chinese government to stabilise the country’s economy with a $250bn injection has relieved some of the pressure and been well received by world markets. Brent crude rose over 2% on Wednesday.
  • Malaysian palm oil has led world veg oil prices this week as low production figures are expected to reveal stocks and production down 9% and 12% in the last month respectively. The bounce is also a correction from last week, which saw the value of palm oil fall by 18% from the 10 Jan.
  • CBOT soybeans have stabilised this week after seeing two-month lows last Friday. This is partially down to overselling, but also on the renewed strength of world veg oil markets.
  • Matif rapeseed fell to two-month lows on Monday following an easing of the EU supply and demand figures as well as fears continuing over the effect of coronavirus. Since then it has found some support in world veg oil strength and closed Wednesday €3 higher than Monday.
  • In the UK, sterling is still a major factor in UK rapeseed prices. Last week the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. Sterling reacted by trading firmer at 1.1900, since then it has come off the highs to a range of 1.175 to 1.185 which has slightly eased the cap on UK prices.

Pulses

  • Old crop beans continue to rally with both feed and human consumption quality firmer on the week, up almost £10/t.
  • There remains strong demand for feed beans on the export market, although domestic demand may reduce over the coming months as domestic buyers who have to use a pulse product are debating switching to cheaper and more plentiful imported peas.
  • Demand for UK human consumption beans has been less strong this week, as Australian faba bean prices are off the highs and the spread between UK and Australian beans into Egypt has narrowed significantly, prompting buyers in Egypt to look elsewhere.
  • We have seen good interest in new crop pea buybacks and there is only a limited area left for large blues and marrowfats.

Seed

Winter Wheat

  • We have had a large number of enquiries for winter wheat seed in the last week, as pockets of the country have been able to start drilling again. We have limited stocks on the floor of varieties still suitable for late sowing, such as KWS Firefly, Theodore and KWS Crispin.

Spring Wheat

  • Imported spring wheat is still available. Please contact your farm trader for more information.

Spring Barley

  • Stocks remain available – with RGT Planet and Laureate still available for those growers looking for a premium malting variety and LG Diablo for those going for out-and-out yield.

Pulses

  • We have enough peas to cover our buyback contracts, but open market seed is getting tight. If you are looking to grow peas, then firm up requirements ASAP.
  • Spring beans are sold out.

Maize

  • We have received a lot of orders for maize recently. Maize provides a good late-drilled option to allow heavier ground to dry out, provided you have a forage/AD outlet.

Fertiliser

  • Urea buying interest has increased in North America and prices have reached attractive levels for traders to consider spot cargoes of North African urea shipment to the US. North African prices could be supported by this demand.
  • The UK urea market continues to trade at below replacement values, but further weakness in sterling could push domestic prices up. Demand is increasing following opportunities to drill winter cereals and as application time approaches.
  • UK ammonium nitrate is steadily firming. Supply from the imported AN market is now limited in the UK as Eastern European demand has increased. Demand in the UK is expected to increase further on top of this, with current sales, deliveries and imports stats significantly behind year on year.
£/€ £/$ €/$
1.179 1.297 1.1
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Feb20 125-134 144-156 217-222 322-327
May20 128-137 147-159 220-225 324-329
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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