Thursday 13 February 2025

Wheat

• Chicago prices are up just $0.74 per tonne week on week as US official data showed little change to US or global wheat balance sheet.
• US stocks were lowered just 4mln bushels (100kmt) on higher food use, while global stocks declined just over 1mln t, mainly due to a reduction in stock held by China, driven by a lower import figure
• European prices are also slightly higher week on week, up just €1.00 per tonne. In their latest monthly update, Strategie Grains lowered their 2024/25 EU soft wheat production by 0.5mln t, and with exports being raised, endling stocks were projected to decline 1mln t month on month. Despite the expected rebound on production for 2025/26, the agency also commented that the balance sheet for 2025/26 would remain on the tight side. 
• UK prices have also followed the trend, moving up £1.95 per tonne week on week. Market on both sides, selling and buying, remains sluggish, with sellers more active on the spikes in the markets, and buyers continuing to look on the dips. Despite a slight rise in the May-Nov futures carry, market is still currently showing no incentive for producers to carry wheat into the new marketing year, although most current weather concerns relate more to new crop than old.

In summary, little change week on week for wheat, with global focus still remaining on South American weather and its impact upon corn and beans crops. Colder weather is due to move into the US plains and Black Sea region over the next couple of days, which should provide some underlying support. However, the market will also focus on talks aimed at kick-starting peace negotiations between the two nations, and although there would be much give and take from both sides, the market’s view of more accessible supplies from the Black Sea region would be deemed a bearish factor.

Malting Barley

• Old crop malting barley markets are starting to see some demand, albeit in very small quantities, with premiums only just over feed and buyers eyeing a healthy carry into new crop. Liquidity is rather slow still, as the quality premium does not incentivise growers into taking the risk on selling a quality specification. 
• New crop markets are starting to wake up, with some speculation taking place in FOB markets as the spring draws closer. Consumer activity is slow though, and most seem happy to wait for a better indication of spring planting progress before engaging. Weather conditions are looking drier in the forecast, so we should hopefully see some good planting progress in the coming weeks.

Feed Barley

• Feed barley markets continue to hold their ground, as export demand persists on the East Coast, meanwhile barley maintains a favourable pricing structure in domestic markets.
• Farmer selling is rather sluggish, and we mainly see farmers letting go of barley when cash flow requires.
• New crop markets are slow also. We remain too expensive to calculate for harvest export demand, which points towards further harvest pressure. Feed barley is pricing much more defensively in domestic markets, which is rationing demand. We do not expect to see much activity until the spring crop is established, which should hopefully start to trigger some volume coming to the market.

Rapeseed

• It has been a relatively negative week overall for agriculture markets with South American weather prospects improving and bringing the hope of relief to crops in Argentina. We also see clearer harvest conditions in central and Northern Brazil which will help speed up the soybean harvest pace ready for the planting of the Safrinha corn crop, though an improvement in soil moisture for this wouldn’t do any harm. As for fresh news out of the US this week, we saw Trump announce 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports , which will not help trade relations with the top suppliers – Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam.
• This week we saw our monthly update from the USDA providing their WASDE report. Overall the report was pretty neutral, leaving US yield and production unchanged, US ending stocks unchanged and Brazilian production unchanged. The main surprises we saw was the reduction in world stocks to 124.3 mmt vs. 127.79 mmt expected and Argentina’s production reduced to 49mmt vs 50.49mmt, in line with the lowest estimate. Now it is likely the focus will shift back to global weather events as well as any further updates from the US.
• Crude oil prices have turned lower again this week after giving us a good pullback. The weekly API report showed a 9.4 million barrel increase week on week vs. an expected 3 million barrels. The EIA has said that the expect OPEC+ production cuts to reduce global oil inventories and keep crude prices near current levels.
• Canadian canola prices have been supported this week by Fridays news of China stepping in to buy two cargoes, which is the first trade we have seen since China launched anti-dumping investigations on Canada. We haven’t seen anything further trade this week, however this is positive going forward for Canola prices, and as such we have seen MATIF’s premium to the Canadian market continue to fall. Higher prices have also led to a measured improvement in farmer selling at $15/bushel.
• MATIF rapeseed prices have been less exciting this week, moving within a very tight range, €525 continues to be a strong overhead resistance, and the 100 day moving average (currently at €514.65) is giving us support. Improved crusher margins are helping support prices to an extent, though as usual, MATIF prices are also somewhat limited by outside markets which are trading the positive weather forecasts. The best way to describe UK farmer selling is less slow than last week, we are seeing some small parcels come through but nothing yet in any volume.

Oats

• The European oat markets continue to see limited trade activity with buyers generally out of the market.
• Potential US import tariffs for both Canada and the EU is certainly muddying the water and this is not helping to secure forward business.
• Long holders of milling oats looking to sell into Q1 continue to see no bids and this could add pressure to Q2 positions if buyers do come into the market.
• Feed oats remain largely untradable with no buyers.
• Here in the UK, farmers are hoping to progress with spring drillings however some wet and cold weather over the last few weeks have resulted in some areas being held back.
• Farmer selling generally remains light with most hoping for higher prices before locking into levels not seen since harvest, “why sell now if you don’t have to comes to mind”.
• Millers remain largely out of the market and new crop remains largely undefined.

Bottom line, the market remains in a state of inertia with all eyes on the US tariffs decisions and the progress of Scandinavian spring plantings.

Pulses

• It’s been a quiet week for the UK bean market as buyer interest starts to tail off and EU and Australian offers out pacing UK prices.
• Whilst domestic prices tracked sideways, consumer demand is hard find into feed homes and HC markets are pretty much finished for the season.
• Looking ahead,  buyers are now starting to take note of new crop planting intentions and indicative values, but overall trade remains quiet.
• UK prices remain unchanged week on week.
• Spring drilling is nearly upon us, contracts are still available for spring bean buybacks for those still searching for cropping options. 
• In other news there seems to be a uplift in interest for new crop pea buybacks over the last few weeks, there is still a limited amount of  availability for our new crop pea buybacks so please speak to your Farm Trader.

Lastly, a reminder to eligible growers: if you’re not already on the PGRO mailing list, consider signing up. Levy payers can access a wealth of free advice and support, leveraging PGRO’s extensive expertise in pulse production and management

Seed

• Drier forecast for next week will encourage the thought trail towards starting to drill , We have Laureate, RGT Planet , CB Score , RGT Asteroid and the new exciting malting barley prosect Belter.
• On the spring wheat front we are pleased to offer limited amounts of both KWS Ladum & KWS Alicium for quick delivery.
• Peas are starting to gain momentum after the release of the highly attractive human consumption buy back contracts and we have Butterfly & Daytona waiting for any new orders.
• Beans always create interest, Lynx beans are leading the way which we are pleased to offer and don’t forget to ask about the buy back too. Tonnage is getting limited on Lynx.
• We have an exciting portfolio of maize varieties which we would welcome your interest in.
• Small seeds and cover crops continue to attract attention which we would be delighted to quote on.

For any seed requirements please contact your local Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures fell over 6.5% to below €52.5/MWh, retreating from recent highs as optimism grows over potential Ukraine peace talks, reportedly brokered by US President Donald Trump. Milder weather forecasts for mid-to-late February further pressured prices, while reports suggest the European Commission may propose a gas price cap on February 26. Despite easing concerns, storage remains a key issue, with European reserves at 47.2%, the lowest for this time of year since 2022.

Ammonia

• Ammonia prices are expected to continue their downward trend amid strong supply from key export hubs. While the market remains soft, NW Europe is closely monitoring rising natural gas feedstock costs, with Dutch TTF trading above $17.5/MMBtu on 10 February, which could temper further declines.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• Ammonium nitrate prices continue to climb, with a major producer raising prices by €20/t for March shipments on 11 February, just days after its last update. This follows Yara’s 3 February price hike, setting CAN 27% at €375/t bulk CIF and AN 33.5% at €475/t bulk CPT. Rising international urea values, renewed European demand, and surging natural gas costs—now at their highest since October 2024—are key drivers. In the UK, CF Fertilisers increased Nitram prices by £10/t on Wednesday, yet importers remain unable to compete at current levels, exacerbating concerns over tightening supply as the spring season progresses.

Urea

• Urea prices continue their upward trend, with Mopco selling 5,000 tonnes of granular urea at $459/t FOB for March shipment, marking a $4/t increase from its 6 February sale. The bullish sentiment is reinforced by India’s last tender securing just 559,000 tonnes, well below demand, fuelling speculation that IPL will step in as the next buyer, with an expected tender in late April.
• In Europe, France has seen granular urea prices rise for a second consecutive week, with main distribution hubs offering €460-465/t FCA, while more isolated ports are reaching €470/t FCA and above. The French market remains an estimated 25% uncovered, supporting further price gains.
• The UK market continues to lag behind replacement costs, with importers limiting price movements to just £5/t week on week in an effort to stimulate liquidity. Three weeks of poor weather have delayed grower engagement, further constraining buying activity, though supply concerns persist as spring approaches as we are seeing across the nitrogen spectrum.

Potash

• Potash prices are set for steady increases across global spot benchmarks in the coming months, with upside risk stemming from the potential tariffs proposed by President Trump. This follows price hikes from four major producers, representing over 60% of the global MOP market, who raised prices by $20/t across several key benchmarks. With these adjustments, supply constraints could tighten further, supporting continued bullish momentum in the months ahead.

Phosphates

• Phosphate prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term, as tight supply offsets limited demand and affordability concerns. While DAP/MAP prices may see slight declines in Q2 as availability improves, the market remains firm relative to other fertilisers and downstream agricultural commodities. Notably, Chinese phosphate exports are expected to remain halted through Q1 2025 to prioritise domestic supply and stabilise prices ahead of the spring application season, potentially adding upside support to global pricing.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.