WELCOME TO ADM AGRICULTURE WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
Wheat
- The US market has traded up $5-6/t over the past week as early pressure due to banking failures and their possible effect on financial stability was negated by risk premiums being built into prices during Black Sea export extension negotiations.
- In addition, US winter wheat crop ratings have slipped during the week in Oklahoma and Texas, although Kansas remained steady.
- Black Sea export negotiations are taking place with Russia offering an extension of just 60 days, whilst Ukraine is seeking 120 days.
- Russia harvested 157.7mln t of grain last year, up 30% year on year, with the wheat crop reported as being 104.2mln t, according to the state statistics agency.
- Ukraine’s grain harvest in 2023 may fall to 34mln t, down 37% year on year due to the impact of the war, a drier weather forecast for late summer and low commodity prices.
- Ukraine’s grain exports had reached 34.2mln t as of 12 March, down 24% year on year. These included 19.9mln t of maize, down 2.1%, 11.8mln t of wheat, down 35% and just over 2mln t of barley, down 62%.
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has slashed its estimates for Argentine maize output in 2022/23 to 37.5mln t, down from 41mln t previously and 53mln t in 2021/22, as the crop continues to deteriorate due to adverse weather.
- Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) raised its production for domestic maize production to 124.7mln t, up 1mln t on the month, citing a slightly higher area for the increase.
- EU soft wheat exports had reached 21.5mln t as of 12 March compared with 19.8mln t a year earlier. Morocco, Algeria and Nigeria remain the top destinations.
- EU prices have firmed €5.50/t week on week, as the market followed the global trend. In addition, recent major importer activity provided support to the futures markets amidst slow producer selling.
- UK prices have bucked the trend, falling £4.75/t over the week, pressured by a firmer pound as the outlook of an abundant over-supply of wheat continues to weigh on values.
Malting Barley
- Malting barley markets have slipped back again on the week as rains in Europe continue to quell the weather concerns of recent weeks.
- Although slowed by rain, UK spring plantings continue to advance, and the bulk of our spring crop is now in the ground. Despite this, for a further week, we see little interest from farmers to sell new crop.
Feed Barley
- Feed barley markets have continued their slide over the past week, once again pressured by falling wheat markets and lack of demand.
- We are however now starting to find some support with UK barley starting to trade into the Netherlands. Shorts here still need to cover April requirements, and the previously cheaper German supply has dried up, opening the door for coaster imports. Other destinations are quiet.
- The UK domestic market remains inactive.
Rapeseed
- Global politics coupled with US and EU banking issues caused a risk-off attitude which filtered into agri-markets this week.
- CBOT soybeans closed below $15/bushel early in the week and have seen sideways trade since.
- The prolonged weather situation in Argentina is beginning to turn into an event we haven’t experienced before. Light showers spread across some areas of the country this week but soon disappear out of the forecast early next week.
- Temperatures continue in the 40s so recent rain is unlikely to benefit soybean crop conditions, which continue to dwindle. Some private estimates are now as low as 28mln t.
- Meanwhile, Brazil’s unharvested areas remain wet, which is pushing back maize plantings. AgRural estimates harvest at 53% complete at the start of March against 64% last year. USDA also reduced its production estimate for Brazil by 2mln t to 151mln t.
- In China, African Swine Flu is on the rise, which is one to watch. There has been very little to no trade activity on soybeans this week though China’s Premier Li stated domestic food production would be supported.
- Crude oil prices crashed again because of the recent banking failures in the US. Spot crude oil has traded $17 off recent highs in the last few days. Soy-oil closed marginally in the green, palm managed to close slightly higher following its recent fall.
- Canadian canola and MATIF have both seen considerable losses in the last few weeks both trading down to contract lows. Weaker outside markets coupled with a comfortable balance sheet is weighing on prices and the market needs to find a new story or additional demand to push prices higher.
- Here in the UK, it was a double hit yesterday as sterling rallied against the euro in reaction to the UK budget, which heavily impacted UK rapeseed prices.
Oats
- EU oat markets have seen some trade activity over the last week with reports of some milling oats trading into Spain.
- Demand for oats in general remains limited, with more sellers than buyers, extending the negative price trend.
- Scandinavian oats look more likely to trade than UK supplies, with buyers at capacity for UK origin oats.
- The UK market has remained well supported given a lack of selling pressure.
- Feed demand has dropped off the cliff, which was unsurprising given the price parity to barley and wheat. Growers who are long of feed oats should anticipate a big drop in values to attract some demand.
- Globally, oats remain well offered with big crops in Canada, Australia, and Europe, therefore a rally will only come if we see a problem in new crop prospects.
Pulses
- Human consumption bean demand remains extremely thin both domestically and export wise, as the situation in Egypt is still unchanged in relation to their access to the dollar.
- UK feed bean consumers are looking for some cover into the summer months. Export-wise, despite the value against other mid proteins, supplies from Australia and the Baltics remain cheaper.
- Feed pea demand has picked up slightly as consumers look for cover into this quarter of the year and further forward. If there are any parcels on farm, please do let your farm trader know.
- Prices for old crop open market peas left on farm are increasing as we head towards the end of the season. We are keen buyers of any large blue, yellow or marrowfat peas.
- Human consumption pea is being delivered. We offer a husbandry guide and can provide with many useful links to maximise crop value. Please contact the pulses team to access this information!
- Buybacks are still available for those who have either ripped up their rapeseed or still are undecided at the eleventh hour. Please get in touch to understand the values and seed available.
Seed
- For any spring seed top ups or last-minute cropping decisions we do still have some spring wheat and barley stocks available for quick delivery.
- Peas are an excellent option if you are still looking for an alternative break crop, we have buybacks available and seed on the floor ready to be delivered.
- We have limited availability of RAGT’s new BYDV-resistant winter wheat, RGT Grouse. This variety is pulling in a lot of interest, particularly with the opportunity to now gain government support as a direct result from avoiding the use of insecticides.
- ADM has a great range of countryside stewardship, grass, and cover crop mixes available to suit your requirements.
- We have some amazing grass seeds including Westerwolds, Italian Ryegrass, Permanent Pastures, and much more!
Fertiliser
- Russian comments regarding the Black Sea grain corridor highlighted the continuing impact of fertiliser and raw material supply into Europe.
- Some commentators suggest sanctions on payments, logistics and insurance on Russian fertilisers, as well as some European participants self-sanctioning, continue to keep UK market levels above historical norms.
- European and UK natural gas prices also remain above historical norms at around August/September 2021 levels, a further factor behind Europe’s sustained higher nitrogen prices.
- UK ammonium nitrate and urea prices remain relatively unchanged week on week. UK AN, Nitram, is available for April delivery.
- UAN prices are adjusting in some regions for spring delivery following similar trends to solid fertilisers in recent months. ADM can offer NitraSol UAN and UAN ATS grades for spring delivery.
- India closed its tender for 100,000t of DAP on Monday of this week with market participants reporting a $10/t reduction in offers from the previous scrapped tender on 27February.
- DAP in the UK is slightly softer in some regions, with similar trends for TSP and MOP. However, the reductions are not significant enough across the whole country to impact current NPK(S) blends.
| £/€ | £/$ | €/$ |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1310 | 1.2055 | 1.0610 |
| Feed Barley £ | Wheat £ | Beans £ | Oilseed Rape £ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2023 | 185-195 | 206-216 | 240-245 | 400-405 |
NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”
ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.
Terms and Conditions of Purchase.
On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.
