WELCOME TO THE ADM AGRICULTURE WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
Wheat
- US prices have fallen $1.29/t w/w as markets slowly ease back from the highs seen earlier in the month. US exports remain strong, at a reported 34% above last year, although the recent rally seems to have deterred much buying interest. US spring wheat harvest is virtually over, and the winter wheat plantings, reported as being 14% complete, are in line y/y and against the 5-yr average, albeit being sown into increasingly ‘drought-stricken’ areas.
- EU markets, like the US, are virtually unchanged on the week, as the market continues to access its reduced crop. Recent attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure are seen having little impact, with wheat exports so far this season placed at 4.7mln t, up from 2.5mln t y/y. SovEcon raised their Russian wheat crop estimate to 82.9mln t, after recently lowering it to 82.5 mln t, citing higher yields in the Easternmost part of Russia for the increase. France’s Agrimer lowered its soft wheat crop to 25.8mln t (27mln t total wheat crop including durum), but by cutting its export projection for both EU and non-EU exports, it projected a healthy soft-wheat carryout of 2.7mln t.
- UK prices have also seen little movement, although delivered premiums have firmed in an attempt to keep sellers engaged. The strong pound still limits any potential rally in prices, by pulling imports closer to parity, despite producers’ reluctance to sell.
- In summary, while the Russian / Ukraine situation will keep the markets uneasy, reports that exports from the region will not be affected have seen prices ease. Global exports are being driven by North America, Russia, and Ukraine, while EU exports continue to be scaled back on lower production. Supply liquidity will remain key, especially if demand starts to pick up again, both domestically and internationally, but at present there seems to be enough in the pipeline to delicately balance the equation.
Malting Barley
- Once again, demand for malting barley remains elusive as the industry continues to battle demand headwinds. Quality premiums remain depressed as a result, particularly as feed prices have moved higher in recent months.
- Much of the UK’s barley surplus this season is spring barley of high quality, and as a result, we do not see much upside in premiums with the UK sitting on an extremely healthy balance sheet, at least without external influence.
Feed Barley
- The cracks are starting to show in the feed barley market as futures push higher and farmer selling starts to steadily increase, meanwhile, consumer interest is moving in the other direction with feed barley no longer pricing as attractively as it was a few weeks ago.
- Export demand still sits well below UK replacement with other origins and products, namely corn, stealing the limelight.
Pulses
- Ag markets have been quiet this week following the USDA’s latest update falling largely in line with expectations. Soybean yield was left unchanged at 53.2 bushels per acre though expectations were for an increase to 53.4. This left production next to unchanged at 4.586 billion bushels. US ending stocks for both crop years were also left within 10 million bushels of unchanged. World ending stocks were 134.6 billion bushels vs. 134.3 last month and 134.0 expected. This week we have seen crop conditions fall 1% to 64% good/excellent though this was in line with expectations and no surprise. Harvest has started to kick off in the US now with early results unsurprisingly dry. USDA flash sales have continued at recent pace with multiple announced to China and Unknown.
- NOPA’s August crush figure came out at 158.008 million bushels vs. guesses of 171.3 million. This is the lowest we have seen for any month in 3 years. This has also led to bean oil stocks coming in well below guesses at 1.138 billion pounds. This will help crush margins bringing positivity to products.
- In Brazil, an extended forecast shows evidence of monsoon rains in Northern states and if this is confirmed this will help planting progress. ANEC says that Brazil’s exports could reach 5.83mmt in September, up from their previous estimate of 5.51mmt.
- Crude oil prices have continued to recover from recent lows, though IEA lowered its 2024 demand growth forecast by more than 7% to 900,000 barrels per day due to weak Chinese demand. IEA did leave its 2025 demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 950,000 barrels per day but did say the market could be oversupplied if OPEC+ unwinds its cuts as planned. The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Sunday that nearly 20% of crude production in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline. US oil rigs in Operation has come higher week on week showing that we are recovering from storm Francine.
- Canola prices have been mixed this week as prices were pressured by West coast canola exportable stocks at historical highs of 317,000mt. This week StatsCan also released another update on 24/25 production at 19mmt, down from 19.5mmt. This was from a farm survey compared to the satellite imaging used in the previous report and was largely expected. Cash margins have taken a hit due to weaker canola oil basis levels with limited business taking place.
- Matif rapeseed has again been a follower this week with widespread floods in central Europe more of an issue for the 25/26 campaign. Frost damage in Australia did bring some support, though the extent of the damage is uncertain yet. Seasonality now suggests that we would see higher rapeseed prices and lower canola/soybeans, though with Matif at such a premium to both already it will be interesting to see how much this is able to move.
Seed
- With the shortage of Group 1 wheat becoming apparent, we still have stocks of the new BYDV-resistant milling wheat RGT Goldfinch available with a milling buyback contract for harvest 25. Please contact your local farm trader for further.
- With October around the corner, we have already begun looking at the spring season and malting barleys including both Planet and Laureate plus SY Tennyson (provisional). We also have some great offers available along with the seed, so if this is something you will be looking at, make sure to contact us.
- If you are still looking for a winter malt, Buccaneer is an exciting new addition to the current recommended list. Offering high yields and a good disease package including eight for brown rust and seven for rhynchosporium. We also have a buyback available alongside this variety. Stocks are limited but, on the floor, ready to go.
- Will you be sowing SFI this autumn? At ADM we have a range of mixes available, plus the option of bespoke mixtures.
Fertiliser
- Demand in the global urea market is persistent despite the recent price increases. India is expected to issue its third tender of the year before the end of the week.
- The squeeze in DAP we had seen over the past weeks has loosened slightly with the high prices encouraging more supply and dampening demand, this has stabilised prices at the newfound, higher levels.
- Natural gas continues to face supply disruptions in the US following Hurricane Francine. Which will help to maintain recent ammonia increases.
- Farmers in Western Europe, including the UK, have considerable nitrogen requirements they will need to cover in Q4 ahead of spring applications. This comes after a slightly subdued AN new season in June.
- As the drilling season commences, now is the time to replace the phosphate and potassium in your soils. This year renewable PKs, such as those supplied by ADM, prove a great alternative to the traditional blends. They are very cost-effective and more readily available to the crops for nutrient uptake. If interested, please contact your ADM farm trader.
| £/€ | £/$ | €/$ |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1900 | 1.3245 | 1.1130 |
| Feed Barley £ | Wheat £ | Beans £ | Oilseed Rape £ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | 153 – 168 | 178 – 193 | 215 – 230 | 380 – 385 |
NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”
ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.
Terms and Conditions of Purchase.
On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.
