WELCOME TO THE ADM AGRICULTURE WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
Wheat
- The US market had traded up about $1/t, in a volatile week driven by events relating to the Black Sea export corridor, declining US winter wheat ratings, but a more favourable US weather outlook.
- US winter wheat crop ratings were unchanged week on week with 27% of the crop remaining in the good/excellent category, but the % deemed poor, or very poor increased two points week on week to 39%
- Russian officials say the Black Sea grain deal may be over, with no point talking about any extension while Western sanctions are still in place.
- Ukraine’s infrastructure Ministry says crop shipment inspections remain delayed, with Russia rejecting inspection plans, and seeking to enforce its own schedule.
- Rains over the past 3-4 weeks have set up the 2023/24 season to be one of the best starts in a long time for Australian wheat, as the ground has good moisture following heavy rains last year.
- Argentina’s BAGE again cuts its estimate of the country’s 2022/23 corn crop to 32mln t, citing that the recent heatwave and seasonal drought had resulted in poor yields and potential acreage losses.
- Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen 13% year on year to 39.2mln t a/o April 12th, including 13.5mln t of wheat, 23.0mln t of corn, and 2.3mln t of barley.
- Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that the 2023 grain harvest could reach 50mln t if the weather remained favourable, an upbeat outlook, as previous official estimates placed the crop at around 44.3mln t.
- Russia’s Ag Ministry forecasts the country will harvest 123mln t of grain in 2023, down from a record 154mln t in 2022, including 78mln t of wheat compared with over 100mln t in 2022.
- One of the major global grain giants commented, that Russia’s increased control of its own exports threatens to obscure prices and curb export efficiencies in the global grain markets.
- Brazilian farmers have started to sow wheat for the 2023/24 season, with acreage expected to expand on the expectations of costs remaining stable, and strong domestic and international demand.
- The EU has ‘slammed’ the move by Poland and Hungary to ban imports of grain from Ukraine, saying ‘unilateral actions’ were unacceptable and a ‘potential breach of the EU’s trade policy’.
- Poland will allow the ‘transit’ of Ukrainian grain through the country from tomorrow, although it will keep its ban on imports of Ukrainian grain, and other food products for its own domestic market.
- EU soft wheat production for 2023/24 is now seen at 128.9mln t, down from 129.5mln t previously as reported by Strategie Grains, citing crop ratings had deteriorated in Spain because of dry weather for the reduction.
- EU soft-wheat exports had reached 24.4mln t as of 16 April, up 8.5% from a year earlier. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria remain the top destinations.
- UK prices have traded up just over £5/t w/w, although declining domestic and export demand would deem the rise as a ‘selling opportunity’ to UK growers.
Feed Barley
- Another quiet week for barley markets with domestic consumers still disengaged on both old and new crop and export demand firmer, but still subdued.
- On the supply side, grower selling remains slow for both crop seasons as spring activities on farm take precedence over grain marketing for the time being.
- With demand not forthcoming and supply also restricted, trading activity has been limited this week and dominated by short covering in the nearby positions.
- The main theme remains that demand and supply are not well aligned at the moment, and something needs to change on either side before we see fresh volumes trading.
Rapeseed
- CBOT soybean prices tried to break higher this week, exceeding $15.20 before experiencing price pressure in recent sessions. Weather in the US shows scattered showers across the Central/Southern Plains. Temperatures have cooled, with some areas reporting frosts in recent days, with similar in the Midwest. Temperatures in the Northern Plains are starting to warm which is allowing the remaining snow to melt. However, temperatures are likely to fall again next week, which will impact plantings. US planting progress is currently estimated at 5% complete.
- In Argentina, farmer selling increased at the end of last week following the introduction of the new “soy peso”. BAGE kept their production forecast at 25mln t and harvest is now estimated at 4% complete with some early cut crops looking very poor. This may lead to private estimates being lowered as harvest progresses.
- Meanwhile, in Brazil, leaders from Brazil and China will meet this week to discuss the importance of agricultural trade. Harvest is 86% complete. Plans were announced for a new bio-diesel plant being built in 2023, which will produce 265 million gallons annually.
- Nothing to report out of China although the government has pledged $1.5 billion in subsidies to help domestic crop production.
- Energy markets started the week on the back foot despite increased Chinese oil imports and output decline in Saudi Arabia. Soy-oil and palm-oil both closed on a firmer note following the strength in US commodities.
- Canadian canola rallied and MATIF rapeseed rallied considerably at the start of the week following news that some EU countries are now looking to ban Ukrainian imports to help boost domestic prices. Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia were the first to commit to the ban. Talks are underway between Ukraine and Poland to try and resolve the situation. Meanwhile, MATIF rapeseed prices rallied €44 in two sessions, trading back at levels not seen since the start of the month. However, prices were unable to sustain the highs and without further news to feed the bulls.
Oats
- Oat markets in Europe continue to be quiet, with minimal trade activity being reported for either old or new crop positions.
- Some cargoes of feed oats have traded into Spain for May/June positions, with prices at a premium to feed barley.
- Demand for oats has certainly fallen in some areas, with German millers reporting to be covered through until new crop.
- New crop prospects remain good in Scandinavia and the Baltics, however, some dryness in Western Europe may start to be a concern if we see minimal rain in the next few weeks.
- Here in the UK, the market remains rather lack lustre, with the millers reporting to be covered for May-Jun’23 positions.
- Feed demand remains poor, with domestic compounders using barley and wheat, which remains relatively cheap in comparison to oats.
- Exports remain strong, with a final season figure of 155kmt (as reported by the AHDB) more and more likely.
- New crop prices remain largely unspoken about with retail customers apparently remaining out of the market.
- The market is trending flat to lower with sellers needing to shift surpluses ahead of new crop.
Pulses
- Old crop feed pea demand has been quite subdued over the last week, as customers appear to have cover for the upcoming months; this has led to a pullback in prices.
- Human consumption-wise, old crop seems to be cleared for the season regarding the open market. We are keen buyers of any peas remaining and will have time to process prior to the upcoming season.
- For any last-minute decisions on cropping OR whether you have decided to pull rapeseed out of the ground, please get in touch with your farm trader, as we have swift seed delivery of peas available across our large blue and marrowfat pea buybacks.
- Old crop feed beans were fairly stable on the week despite wheat futures volatility.
- The new crop market is yet to fully kick into gear as we stand.
Seed
- Looking ahead to the autumn, we have a great portfolio of OSR seed, including TuYV resistant all-rounder DK Excited. This variety is supported by a market-leading establishment scheme with £100/pack rebates for any crop that fails to establish (key dates apply). DK Excited is also proven to excel in the earlier drilled slot.
- Companion cropping helps aid OSR establishment by protecting against flea beetle, fixing nitrogen, and conditioning the soil. We have three amazing mixes available, Shielder, Beetle Blaster and Fix, and Protect, which include buckwheat, berseem clover, and fenugreek.
- Buckwheat provides a canopy to protect the plants from flea beetle.
- Berseem clover helps to fix nitrogen, suppress weeds, and condition the soil.
- Fenugreek has a distinct odour that deters flea beetle.
- It is likely that buckwheat will sell out this season, so it is recommended to book soon.
- We also have a vast variety of grass mixes, countryside stewardship, and cover crops. Our cover crop straights and countryside stewardship mixes are available for fast delivery. Contact your farm trader for more information.
Fertiliser
- Granular urea has remained stable to firm on the world markets. Prices in the US and Egypt continue to see support, rising around $15-20/t week on week.
- With the UK pound slightly lower against the dollar week on week and higher FOB values in most origins, firmness is starting to appear in the UK urea market.
- CAN 27% (cif inland Europe) remains unchanged at circa €290/t. May and June prices are beginning to emerge for imported 34.4 prilled AN in the UK that reflect these levels.
- The UK market awaits price movement and new offers from the only UK manufacturer, which is positioned to be highly competitive against imported AN values given its ability to import ammonia.
- Phosphate and potash prices remain soft as we approach harvest. NPK, and PK blend prices are also softening given raw material cost movements.
- Liquid UAN prices have edged lower. ENhance Pro ATS foliar nitrogen sulphur is available for quality wheats for May/June delivery.
- PinKstart for OSR, a Timac Agro microgranular bio-stimulant fertiliser, is available from ADM.
| £/€ | £/$ | €/$ |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1340 | 1.2430 | 1.0960 |
| Feed Barley £ | Wheat £ | Beans £ | Oilseed Rape £ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr23 | 170-180 | 193-203 | 230-235 | 380-385 |
NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.
“Although ADM Agriculture take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”
ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.
ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.
Terms and Conditions of Purchase.
On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.
