Thursday 27 February 2025

Wheat

Wheat markets are retreating from recent multi-month highs, facing continued downward pressure due to recently more favourable weather across the U.S. and Black Sea.

• Front-month contracts have declined: Chicago (-26c/bu), MATIF (-€5), and London (-£5/mt) week-on-week.
• Near-term market dynamics are shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and improving weather. Trade disruptions, including U.S. tariffs on the EU and China’s cancelled wheat shipments from Argentina, are pressuring prices. Broader economic concern such as inflation and weak consumer confidence are also dampening demand.
• Weather remains a key factor. While U.S. winterkill concerns have faded with favourable conditions, drought in Eastern Europe and excessive rainfall in parts of Europe present risks later in the season. Meanwhile, Russia and Black Sea exporters continue to dominate global trade, despite French wheat remaining competitive in markets like Algeria.
• Long-term, the wheat market could trend bearish if geopolitical tensions ease, particularly with a resolution in Russia-Ukraine. Sanctions removal would increase global supply, weighing on prices. Climate risks, such as droughts, could cause volatility, but advancements in drought-resistant wheat varieties may stabilise production.
  
  

In summary, wheat markets face near-term pressure from trade tensions, economic headwinds, and more favourable weather, while long-term trends hinge on geopolitical developments and climate-related risks.

Malting Barley

• Malting barley markets remain steady, with old crop prices supported by a large carry into the new season and a narrow premium over feed, though demand remains slow.
• New crop activity is minimal, but premiums are strengthening, exceeding £40/mt in some areas. The focus now shifts to spring planting, which will determine future premiums. With ample time for planting, no immediate concerns exist.

Feed Barley

• Feed barley prices are under slight pressure as futures weaken and buyers step back. However, replacement at lower levels is challenging, limiting further downside.
• Domestically, barley remains competitively priced against other feed grains, supporting long-term demand.
• Improved weather is aiding spring planting, but new crop demand remains sluggish in both domestic and export markets. Feed barley pricing may need to adjust to stimulate demand, though significant changes are unlikely until the spring crop is well established.

Rapeseed

This week has been relatively quiet for agricultural markets, with mixed movements.

• Trump has postponed tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2, easing immediate pressure on canola markets. Canada’s weekly crush reached 212,000 mt, averaging 8% below the weekly norm since October.
• In the U.S., soybeans have declined as favourable South American weather continues. LSEG raised Brazil’s production estimate to 170.4 mmt (vs. USDA’s 169 mmt) due to a faster harvest. Argentina’s forecasted rains are shifting south, potentially leaving northern regions too dry. Markets await the USDA Outlook Forum, which is expected to project a 2.7-million-acre reduction in U.S. soybean planting to 84.4 million acres, with yields estimated at 52.1 bushels per acre.
• Crude oil prices fell below the 100-day moving average amid optimism over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which could ease sanctions on Russian oil. Veg oil markets remain mixed, with palm oil stalling due to a lack of external support.
• MATIF rapeseed continues to struggle at €535, with ample EU supply and increased FOB selling. Seasonally, March typically sees a steady price decline. The UK market remains quiet, still about £20 short of farmer targets.

Oats

As we saw last week, oat markets across Europe remain seasonally sluggish with minimal trade activity.

• Fresh demand for UK Milling oats remains stunted, with all major millers now covered until late 25Q2.
• With Spring Drilling on the horizon, we will potentially see a slight pickup in new crop interest as the crop starts going in the ground, however for now, new crop oats are also quiet until the market has a better understanding of what the new crop has to offer.
• It is still unclear how much of the Scandinavian surplus the US market could absorb. If this is the case, expect prices to remain supported. However, if this does not come to fruition, expect oat markets to come under yet more downward pressure.

Pulses

Pulses markets remained quiet, with limited demand for feed and some interest in human consumption.

• Feed demand is slow, as feed beans are priced £20/MT higher than imported alternatives, though poultry sector interest is supporting prices.
• New crop beans see firm premiums, but spring drilling may bring some market stability, potentially softening premiums.
• With spring planting likely to accelerate, dry weather could boost pulse crop establishment. For marketing options, including the POOL and buy-back contracts, farmers should consult their Farm Trader.
• Old crop pea demand is steady from processors, while new crop demand is growing, driven by concerns over India’s chickpea crop. Pea buy-back contracts are attractive for those planting spring crops.
  
  

PGRO membership offers free pulse advice and agronomy resources to support crop management and maximise yields.

Seed

• Weather delays have slightly pushed back drilling, but with improved forecasts, barley orders are increasing.
• We have Laureate, RGT Planet, and CB Score available for delivery with your choice of seed treatment. Spring bean plantings are progressing well, with the high-yielding Lynx variety now offered.
• Limited stock of KWS Ladum and KWS Alicium spring wheats is available for delivery. Maize seed deliveries are picking up, with ADM offering a top-tier variety portfolio.
• Grass seed straights, mixtures, and small seed (including SFI requirements) are also in stock and ready for delivery.
  
  

Our Spring and Maize catalogues are now available, browse our varieties here.

Contact your Farm Trader for more details or call our friendly team on 01427 421200.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures rose 6% to €44/MWh, recovering from a two-month low. This rebound follows a 12.8% drop amid concerns over a US-EU trade dispute potentially increasing LNG costs. Despite the rebound, prices are still 25% below February’s peak due to mild weather, eased EU storage mandates, and US-led peace talks in Ukraine. EU storage levels are below 40%, with nations considering relaxing storage requirements.

Ammonia

• Ammonia prices remain pressured in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, but regional demand in Northwest Europe is providing some support. The March Tampa ammonia contract settled at $460/t CFR, down $40/t from February. A supply surplus is expected to persist globally, although temporary price support in Europe could stabilise prices.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• European ammonium nitrate prices are rising as demand picks up ahead of March, particularly in France and Germany. Supply issues in the UK are tightening, and UK importers face rising prices due to limited willingness from producers to supply, given the high demand in Europe.

Urea

• Global urea markets are in a holding pattern as demand continues, with the next Indian tender expected in March. US demand is cautious due to delayed purchasing decisions from weather impacts. In the UK, domestic urea prices are steady, but any significant developments, particularly in India’s next tender, could trigger price adjustments.

Potash

• Pupuk Indonesia’s MOP tenders are still pending, which could support global potash values if accepted. In Northwest Europe, strong demand for spring application and limited March supply are pushing prices up. UK potash prices remain stable but may rise due to tight supply.

Phosphates

• DAP and MAP prices remain firm globally, supported by tight supply. The market is awaiting a finalised phosphates deal between Morocco’s OCP and Indian importers, which could impact pricing. In the UK, phosphate prices are stable but remain supported by supply constraints.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.