Thursday 3 April 2025

Wheat

With global uncertainty ruling the roost for the last week, last night’s Tariff announcements were in some ways welcomed, regardless of their values, as the market now finally knows. Markets continue to digest the impact of these, with GBP and EUR both firming as a result. Meanwhile, steadily improving weather conditions around the world do little to ease the bearish sentiment that is cloaking this market.

Key Factors

• Wheat prices have continued to push lower, with improved weather forecasts across the US, Ukraine and Russia easing prices lower, whilst export demand continues to remain sluggish. As a result, CBOT and ICE London futures both made fresh contract lows.
• The main data release of the last week was the USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage figures. Whilst wheat acres came in lower than expected, this was more than offset by the 12-year high in corn acres, helping the market to continue on its downward march. There was a slight decline in soy acres as well, however this was well within the realms of expectations and so the market didn’t even blink.
• There has been growing uncertainty around the what last night’s tariff announcement would mean for global trade. In the event, we saw one of the biggest shake-ups to international trade in 100 years, culminating in a risk-off sentiment in the market, especially towards US ags. All eyes are now on the expected raft of retaliatory tariffs which are expected, particularly from China, Japan and the EU.
• With both GBP and EUR firming where they are seen as safe-haven currencies at the moment, UK and EU wheat exports are struggling to find a home. The UK remains sluggish, and needs to be cheaper compared to EU origins. However, turning to the EU, soft wheat exports are significantly down year on year in the face of strong competition earlier in the season from Russia and Ukraine.
• Funds have aggressively increased their MATIF Wheat and CBOT Wheat short positions, maintaining the bearish sentiment. With the EUR continuing to firm, having recently hit a 6-month high against USD, this could add further pressure to wheat prices that will continue to feed the bearish sentiment.
  
  

Outlook
The grain market continues to remain bearish, driven by favourable weather forecasts and uncertainty around the US market. Firming currencies in both the UK and EU will likely only further act to push values lower in the short to mid-term. Whilst the seasonal trends suggest that prices usually find some traction around this time of year, it is currently looking like 2025 will be a year to buck the trend.

Malting Barley

Malting markets remain extremely slow. Old crop is totally undiscussed, and once again new crop markets have their eyes firmly fixed on weather and the developing crop.

Key Factors

• Old crop malting markets are once again with activity, and nominally malting barley is not worth much more than feed. With a decent carry into new crop, commercials are looking to carry over into next season with the current absence of spot demand.
• With the spring barley crop in the ground, and for now there is no supply side issue to discuss which has pressured markets amid continued thin demand. Weather maps are turning dry for the next few weeks, which will limit seller’s enthusiasm in the short term and should provide some mild support, but overall the situation is still looking comfortable heading into new crop.
  
  

Outlook
New crop prices and premiums should see limited downside over the next few weeks if weather conditions remain dry, but we do not see cause for major upside unless crop conditions deteriorate significantly. Weather watching will once again be the key focus for traders as we head into April.

Feed Barley

Feed barley markets struggled for demand over the last week, however prices remain relatively immune to the volatility in wider grain markets.

Key Factors

• Choppy futures markets amid the challenging geopolitical environment have led to a rather risk-off attitude over the last week, and once again we see wide bid-offer spreads leading to thin trade. Exporters are still focussing on Ireland which remains the only destination in the market for UK barley, although low water levels on the Rhine and Moselle are pushing Dutch interior values higher, which could perhaps provide a competing outlet.
• Domestically, demand is absent, and we continue to see pressure to inland spreads vs export values as demand wanes, with dry conditions promoting earlier turnout.
• New crop markets are slow and barley continues to feel pressure as sellers try to capture demand, with limited success.
  
  

Outlook
Old crop levels have remained strong relative to other grains on slow farmer selling, and we expect that this will remain the case in the short term. New crop values will continue to be dictated by wider grain markets, although relatively speaking barley will need to do some work to capture demand.

Rapeseed

We have had another choppy week in agricultural markets, with an update from the USDA on stocks and acreage which didn’t bring anything significant to the soybean complex, and “Liberation Day” in the US bringing a lot of uncertainty as the trade digests how this will impact global flows as well as waiting to see if we see retaliation from the rest of the world or negotiation.

Key Factors 

• Soybean Market Volatility: Soybeans experienced mixed movements throughout the week, with a brief rally and then subsequent declines. The USDA acreage report showed a slightly smaller soybean acreage than expected, and weather conditions (rain) are helping improve planting prospects. Soybean oil supported prices, while soybean meal struggled.
• Vegetable Oils & Biofuels Support: Veg oils, especially soybean oil, remained strong, buoyed by market expectations around the U.S. biofuel industry pushing for higher biofuel blend quotas. This helped support the soybean oil market and related oilseeds like canola and rapeseed.
• Crude Oil & Tariffs: Crude oil saw price swings, with geopolitical concerns around Russian tariffs, Venezuelan crude, and U.S. tariffs weighing on the market. Energy markets reacted to Trump’s comments that any nation to buy Venezuela crude will face instant tariffs. We also see demand expectations shifting in China, now with an expected increase in 2025 rather than lower due to the sluggish economy.
• Canola & Rapeseed Dynamics: Canola prices fluctuated, finding support from stronger soybean oil values, and continued interest from crushers. MATIF rapeseed saw price fluctuations, impacted by currency moves and tariff concerns, but managed to come higher by week’s end.
• Market Uncertainty & Tariffs: Trump has now imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports, including reciprocal tariffs, with markets focused on how these measures will impact trade and agricultural exports. The tariffs’ indirect effect on commodity markets, especially for oilseeds, is under scrutiny.
  
  

Outlook
Overall, we remain in a very new environment that hasn’t been seen before. Seasonality for rapeseed does have another week higher but with significant volatility and currency moves this could happen in a number of ways. Rapeseed prices are only circa €15 from contract highs so we are getting close to needing a bullish story to push through higher anyway. 

Oats

European oat markets continue to struggle.

Key Factors

• Widespread tariffs imposed by the US continues to limit trade from the key grower areas of Canada an the US.
• European oat millers have traded some new crop tonnages over the last week with some siting the fall in prices to recent lows as an opportunity to cover sales with the risk more likely to the upside than the downside.
• A lack of rainfall in Sweden, Finland, the UK, France and Germany has enabled a good start for spring crops however the forecast is showing no real rain and this could become an issue if it were to continue.
• Feed oats activity has been quiet over the last week and with Spain experience widespread rainfall it is anticipated that another decent crop is on the cards.
• Here in the UK market activity remains very quiet with no real demand for any position being reported.
• Old crop oats remain largely untradable, however buyers are suggesting there is some Jun/Jul to do providing customers come in and buy.
• New crop prospects remain good, however we could do with some rain to develop the recently planted crops.
  
  

Outlook
Dry weather in Scandinavia and UK is a potential problem, however it is too early to get bullish at this stage therefore low prices could be expected unless a weather problem develops.

Pulses

A quiet week for pulses in terms of market activity, although new crop values, whilst relatively undiscussed, have ground lower in sympathy to the ICE London wheat value. With strong drilling progress across the whole of the UK, in the last week, expect premiums to come under pressure in the coming weeks.

Key Factors

• Another wide trading range for GBP is likely to slow the end of the UK export campaign for pulses. Eid is due to end shortly, so we could well see the Egyptians come to the market for a last minute bite of the cherry on old crop, however attention will soon be turning towards new crop beans.
• Spring beans will soon be starting to emerge as the CY25 drilling campaign starts to wrap up. After a near ideal campaign, the next stage is now a focus on soil moistures, with some areas having not had any meaningful rain since the end of February. Reports of cereals already going under irrigation in East Anglia highlight the low soil moistures in some areas, however as long as there is sufficient moisture for the seed to start germinating, then the dryer weather could well help with a strong root establishment as they drive lower – however, rainfall will be required at some point in the not too distant future!
• Global markets have been characterised by uncertainty and turbulence over the last couple of months, and whilst pulses prices have remained relatively stable during this time, you should still speak to your Farm Trading representative around what marketing options are available to you and how to manage the spill-over risk from other commodities and currency fluctuations. Pulses often suffer from a lack of consistent, reliable information at the best of times, so it is well worth speaking to your Farm Trader who can explain the raft of marketing options we have available to help you navigate these opaque markets.
• New Crop bean premiums are still firm. However, each day brings more reports of further drilling, which is now nearing completion, suggesting that we should start to see a softening – with the underlying wheat price also coming under pressure, it could be well worth selling some of your new crop beans forward.
• Well the end of the season is approaching and interested into new crop supply starts to build. There remain a few gaps to fill AMJ for feed peas and yellows should long holders want to clear the stores ahead of harvest. New crop plantings have got off to a good start but it won’t be long before rain is needed to help germination.  
  
  

Outlook
With both commodity and currency markets seeing increased volatility in the face of ongoing uncertainty, new crop beans will likely continue to grind lower as the underlying wheat market devalues. The firming currency will do little to assist new crop competitiveness, however the question will soon become is wheat devaluing quickly enough to offset the gains in GBP? With this increased market volatility, growers should consider the range of strategic marketing options we can offer, whilst ensuring strong crop management for optimal yields.

PGRO membership provides valuable pulse agronomy resources and advisory support.

Seed

Spring cereal drilling is coming to a close following the recent belt of good weather. Focus is now switching for any spare land towards linseed, small seeds and grass.

Key Factors

• We have some market leading varieties of Spring linseed, including Bliss, Bingo and Skylark available alongside our attractive linseed buyback offering. Helping take the stress away from finding end markets closer to harvest.
• Game maize is a popular topic of discussion at the moment, offering good game cover and feed for birds. We are delighted to offer both game maize blends and straights to ensure you have the best cover available over the winter period.
• If you are still looking to secure any forage, AD or grain maize, availability is tightening so get in touch to find out what we have to offer and rough delivery timescales.
• Grass leys for both agricultural and amenity situations are readily available for delivery. Whether it’s a short term cutting mix to a long term grazing pasture, we have some great mixes to choose from. Plus, hard wearing to fine lawn mixtures.
  
  

Outlook
As we look ahead to the coming months and seasons, it is a great time to be planning the right varieties to suit your farm needs. Check out our Winter Seed Catalogue and learn about some of the new varieties hitting the market this coming Autumn!

Our seed specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 5 or speak with your Farm Trader.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas
Warmer weather and trade tensions weigh on global gas markets

Key Factors

• European futures fell to €39.4/MWh — a four-week low — as mild weather curbed demand
• Trump’s new tariffs on EU (20%) and UK (10%) imports raised concerns over retaliatory trade actions and energy costs
• EU gas storage is now nearly two-thirds empty, prompting discussions to relax the 90% refill target
• Norway’s Nyhamna gas plant entered summer maintenance (April 2–7), temporarily reducing supply
• In the US, futures dipped to $4.05/MMBtu amid record March production (106.1 bcfd) and mild April forecasts
  
  

Outlook
Storage risks and geopolitical uncertainty remain front-of-mind in Europe, but short-term pressure is firmly to the downside due to weak seasonal demand. US markets face similar headwinds, with high production and soft demand likely to cap any near-term price recovery — despite record LNG exports.

Ammonia
Global supply swells as Tampa slides again; downside bias remains

Key Factors

• Tampa benchmark fell another $25/t for April deliveries — now down $110/t since December
• First cargoes from Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) facility began late March; exports to ramp up through Q2–Q3
• Caribbean production strong, though potential gas-related outages (as seen in 2024) remain a risk
• NW Europe benchmark expected to ease further, pressured by healthy supply from North Africa and the Americas
• Middle East glut persists; limited demand from Asia and India; Ma’aden curtailment rumoured for May
  
  

Outlook
The global ammonia market remains under pressure with ample supply and subdued demand across key regions. Europe could see some price stability if import values undercut domestic production costs, but the broader trend into Q2–Q3 is bearish. A minor upside risk exists from potential curtailments in the Middle East and geopolitical shifts — notably, Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs may lift US ammonia values slightly with a 10% duty now applied to Trinidadian imports.

Nitrates
Looking to urea for direction as global values drift

Key Factors

• Nitrates markets continue to follow the lead of urea
• Global prices remain under pressure amid subdued buying activity
• Sentiment may shift if India’s urea tender provides a floor
• UK ammonium nitrate prices remain stable, though availability remains tight and imports unworkable at current levels
  
  

Outlook
With limited fresh demand globally and sellers hesitant to drop values further, the market awaits cues from India’s tender. In the UK, structural tightness persists, and prices are expected to remain firm until either fresh import interest is viable or domestic availability improves.

Urea
India returns but global downward pressure and gas disruptions keep direction uncertain

Key Factors

• Urea markets remain under pressure as suppliers aggressively pursue India’s 1.5 Mt tender
• Egypt faces natural gas supply disruptions, slowing export volumes despite a modest $10/t price increase at $390/t FOB for April loading
• No full confirmation yet that Egyptian production has returned to capacity
• European granular urea values have improved but still lag Egyptian FOB benchmarks
• New US tariffs impact key exporters: Algeria (30%), Qatar and Egypt (10%), while Russia avoids tariffs entirely
• UK prices saw slight reductions this week due to pound strength post-tariff news, but physical availability remains constrained.
  
  

Outlook
The global market remains fragile, hinging on India’s tender allocations and clarity on Egyptian plant operations. In the UK, tight physical supply continues to define price sentiment, with any price softening abroad yet to translate meaningfully due to logistical and replacement cost challenges.

Potash
Tariff clarity eases tension, but Q2 demand holds bullish undertone

Key Factors

• MOP prices expected to rise in Southeast Asia amid tight prompt supply and delayed Q2 offers
• Pupuk Indonesia set to issue its key annual tender post-Eid, fuelling regional demand
• Surge in palm oil plantation tenders adds to bullish momentum
• After prolonged speculation, Canadian MOP is confirmed exempt from US tariffs under the USMCA (Annex II).
• Recent firming may unwind slightly as pre-emptive risk premiums correct in light of this clarification
  
  

Outlook
With Canadian potash tariff-exempt, some downward correction is likely, but tight near-term supply and strong spring demand should maintain a firm price floor. The UK market will continue to track broader European and Southeast Asian trends, with Q2 application support likely keeping prices stable to firm.

Phosphates
Supply squeeze intensifies as tariffs tighten the noose on global flows

Key Factors

• DAP prices continue to climb with little sign of relief; buyers face a seller’s market
• Availability remains tight globally, and stable pricing may be the most optimistic short-term outcome
• India’s FACT and HURL are closing multiple NPK tenders this week, signalling substitution interest amid limited DAP access
• US tariffs now extend to granular phosphate imports: Jordan (20%), Israel (17%), Tunisia (28%), Saudi Arabia and Australia (10%)
• Morocco’s situation remains unclear — additional 10% tariff could stack onto existing countervailing duties (CVDs)
  
  

Outlook
Global phosphate markets remain firmly in bullish territory with significant upside risk as new US tariffs further restrict availability. Buyers will need to act quickly or risk being priced out. In the UK, price stability is unlikely to hold much longer, and supply may tighten further as competition for tonnes intensifies.

Our fertiliser specialists are on hand to help with any queries you may have, call our friendly team on 01427 421200, option 6 or speak with your Farm Trader.

£/€	£/$	€/$
1.1999	1.2998	1.0826

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.