Thursday 6 February 2025

Wheat

• Chicago wheat prices rose $3.58 per tonne w/w, supported by strength in corn and soybean markets. 
• US wheat exports fell w/w, reaching 14.03 mln t as of January 30. While 24% higher y/y, this represents just 60.6% of the yearly target, requiring weekly exports of over 500K mt to meet projections. Meanwhile, reports of a larger-than-expected Australian wheat harvest (+2 mln t) and China’s delays or resales of existing stocks to other Asian countries are limiting US price gains. 
• European wheat prices fell €1.50 per tonne w/w as sluggish exports persist. While over 80% of Russia’s winter wheat crop is rated good or satisfactory, poor sowing conditions and low moisture levels remain concerns. Lack of snow cover in southern Russia and Ukraine leaves crops vulnerable to frost, with Ukraine reporting its lowest soil moisture in seven years. 
• UK wheat prices dropped £2.75 per tonne w/w, pressured by a firmer currency ahead of an expected interest rate cut and slowing demand. However, reduced producer selling has kept delivery premiums historically high, though below recent peaks. With little incentive to carry wheat into the next marketing season, prices may need to drop further to attract buyers. 
• In summary, wheat markets remain under pressure, relying on corn for support. South American weather remains a key factor, while ongoing US-China trade tensions and Black Sea export availability add to market uncertainty.

Malting Barley

• Malting markets remain quiet, with weak demand and a narrowing spread between feed and malting, reflecting an oversupplied market. 
• New crop activity is subdued, with attention on spring planting prospects, though it’s too early for any firm assessments. 
• A range of new crop contracts are available—contact your Farm Trader for details.

Feed Barley

• Feed barley markets remain largely unchanged w/w, with values holding firm despite slightly weaker futures. Strong relative value versus other feeds continues to support demand. 
• The UK remains the most competitive coaster replacement into Ireland, though trade has slowed as Sterling recovers recent losses. 
• New crop feed barley remains a price follower, with no major developments. If spring planting proceeds as expected, UK barley appears overvalued, with an exportable surplus and growing competition for export demand.

Rapeseed

• It has been another interesting week for ag markets, trying to position themselves around each new announcement from the US. Following discussions over the weekend and into Monday, President Trump’s meetings with Canadian and Mexican leaders resulted in a one-month postponement of tariffs on their goods, aimed at bolstering border controls against fentanyl trafficking. This news provided relief to canola markets, crucially affected as the US is the largest importer of Canadian canola oil. However, the subsequent strength of the Canadian dollar tempered export enthusiasm, keeping market activities subdued, particularly with China just returning from its lunar holiday.
• Soybean prices trended upwards, despite cautious sentiment driven by impending US-China tariffs. Weather updates from South America indicated beneficial rains in Argentina, though future precipitation is essential to alleviate crop stress. Brazil experienced delays in southern harvests due to showers, contrasting with improved conditions in central and northern regions. US soy exports for December exceeded the five-year average by 8%, contributing to a 2% rise in September-December exports over the same period.
• Meanwhile, energy markets sustained losses as OPEC+ decided to maintain current output cuts until April, coinciding with President Trump’s renewed ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran, aimed at reducing its oil exports to zero.
• In European markets, MATIF rapeseed struggled to gain traction despite attempts to rally, lagging behind relatively stable canola prices. Prices found support near the 100-day moving average but face resistance levels at €525 and €535. Uncertainty lingers over potential US tariffs on EU goods, adding to market unpredictability, compounded by a stronger EUR/USD exchange rate which hindered price increases.
• Overall, the week has been marked by strategic market positioning amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics and weather patterns, influencing agricultural commodities across global markets.

Oats

• Oat markets saw increased activity last week due to disruption and uncertainty following President Trump’s decision to impose a 25% import tariff on Canada. However, this has been delayed for 30 days to allow further negotiations, prompting US buyers to seek alternative oat supplies. 
• Scandinavia would benefit most from a 25% Canadian import tariff, but with Trump also threatening EU tariffs, price parity between Canada and the EU for US imports remains uncertain. 
• Finland’s release of 30% of its state oat reserves is expected to add to the country’s surplus, with the first instalment set for April 2025. 
• In the UK, exports picked up in January, with nearly 20K MT shipped year-to-date, though this remains well behind the five-year average and could leave the UK with record end-of-season stocks. 
• Mill demand remains weak, with buyers reportedly covered until July 2025. 
• Bottom line: The market is oversupplied, but strong US demand could quickly absorb the surplus.

Pulses

• While UK beans have seen increased buyer interest, prices still struggle to compete with cheaper EU feed beans. HC export demand is also slowing as Australian beans enter the market. 
• UK prices have remained stable week-on-week, but if demand continues to decline, feed prices will need to drop further to stay competitive. New crop beans remain quiet and largely undiscussed, with UK farm gate prices still around £25 too high for buyers. 
• As spring drilling begins, attention will turn to weather and planting conditions for the upcoming crop. 
• Old crop pea demand is following a similar trend to beans, with prices needing to adjust to attract buyers. However, interest in new crop peas is growing, and new crop pea buybacks remain available, offering strong gross margin returns for spring cropping plans. For the latest buyback opportunities, contact your farm trading representative.
• Lastly, a reminder for eligible growers: if you’re not on the PGRO mailing list, consider signing up. Levy payers can access free advice and support, benefiting from PGRO’s expertise in pulse production and management.

Seed

• Still need to secure your spring seed? Get in touch today to explore our offerings. From market-leading spring barleys like Laureate to high-yielding spring wheats like Alicium, we have options to fit your rotation. 
• Large blue peas, Butterfly, and Daytona are generating interest, with exciting new human consumption buyback contracts available. 
• Spring barley supplies are tightening, particularly for Laureate and RGT Planet, following the release of new malting buybacks. 
• Limited quantities of spring wheats KWS Ladum and KWS Alicium remain—don’t wait too long to secure these top varieties. 
• Our extensive maize portfolio includes options for grain, forage, and AD, covering a range of maturities. 
• For all seed requirements, contact your local ADM Farm Trader to discuss available options.

Fertiliser

Natural Gas

• European natural gas futures surged past €54.5 per megawatt-hour, reaching their highest level since February 2023 as colder weather intensified demand and further depleted reserves. With temperatures in northwest Europe expected to drop further, inventory drawdowns are accelerating, leaving European gas storage at approximately 51% capacity—significantly below last year’s 69% at this time.
• On the supply front, Norwegian gas flows have increased following the completion of maintenance at the Njord field, offering some relief to the market. LNG send-outs remain steady, though traders remain wary of geopolitical risks. China’s decision to impose a 15% tariff on US LNG, in retaliation to Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, has injected additional uncertainty into global gas trade flows. The market is closely monitoring whether these trade tensions will impact European LNG supply, particularly as storage levels tighten and winter demand remains elevated.

Ammonia

• Northwest Europe has emerged as a partial demand pocket in recent weeks, though not enough to absorb the ample supply from the Americas and North Africa. However, robust downstream demand for urea and nitrates continues to provide some support, preventing sharper declines. Elevated natural gas feedstock costs—trading above €54.5 per megawatt-hour in early February—are also helping to slow the downward momentum in the region.
• Despite this, the broader outlook for ammonia remains bearish. Both Algerian FOB and Northwest European CFR prices are expected to trend lower through early Q3, when the market is projected to find its bottom. With sufficient supply and limited new demand catalysts, pricing pressure is set to persist in the near term.

Ammonium Nitrate (AN)

• Yara announced on 3 February that it is once again increasing its official March sales prices for CAN 27% in Germany and the Benelux, as well as 33.5% AN in France. CAN 27% is now priced €15/t higher than the last official price issued on 17 January. AN 33.5% has risen €20/t from its previous offer just 17 days ago.
• In the UK, ammonium nitrate prices continue to edge higher, with imported AN rising by £10/t over the past week. CF Fertilisers’ Nitram remains withdrawn from the market, creating room for further upward movement in imported material. However, UK AN prices remain notably behind their European counterparts, raising concerns about supply constraints later in the season. With European producers already trading at higher price levels—particularly in Germany and France—the UK market may struggle to secure sufficient volume as spring demand intensifies.

Urea

• Urea markets remain firm as India failed to secure its full requirement in the most recent tender, leaving buyers in other key regions, including Australia, competing for available tonnes. There is growing speculation that India will issue another tender, but this is unlikely to take place for several weeks. US NOLA February barge values have moved up to $396/st FOB, reflecting a $16 increase after a small correction on 3 February, which saw trades briefly dip to $380/st FOB. Egyptian FOB values have also continued to climb, with Abu Qir trading volume at $450/t FOB, a $15/t increase since 1 February. In the UK, granular urea prices have finally started to rise, with importers seeing some improvement in asking prices after weeks of stagnation. Despite the $50/t hike in Egyptian FOB values since the start of the year, UK replacement costs remain around $30/t higher than current trading levels, highlighting continued misalignment between global benchmarks and domestic pricing. With the bull run showing no signs of slowing before the end of the spring application window, further price increases are expected as supply tightens and competition for tonnes persists.

Potash

• Bullish sentiment continues to define the potash market, with strong demand—particularly from Brazil—driving prices higher in recent months. In the US, President Trump has postponed the planned 25% tariff on Canadian potash imports for 30 days, avoiding an immediate shock to the market but keeping tariffs as an ongoing risk factor. Canada currently supplies around 80% of US MOP demand, and while prices are expected to rise in the coming months, a well-stocked domestic warehouse network may delay any significant price increases. In the UK, the market has held flat this week, following two consecutive weeks of gradual price increases, though supply dynamics remain firm as seasonal demand builds.

Phosphates

• Granular phosphate prices have remained stable over the past month as previously forecast, with expectations of steady pricing through Q1 before slight declines emerge in Q2 as supply improves. India’s stocks remain critically low, driving off-season restocking demand, though buyers remain sensitive to pricing due to heavily negative import margins under current subsidies. Suppliers, aware of this, continue to resist downward price pressure. Morocco is set to agree on annual DAP and TSP supply to India, which could ease some pressure, though Indian buyers remain hesitant to accept TSP. In the UK, phosphate prices have followed a similar pattern to potash, holding steady this week after two weeks of gradual increases, as markets await further directional shifts

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

Although ADM Agriculture takes steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the ADM Agriculture Market Report, it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. ADM Agriculture will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information. ADM Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication. ADM Agriculture trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause. Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.